By Robert Sanchez
With baseball still in full swing, let’s take a look at the best player props of the day. There are only a handful of games today with many teams having an off day, but just because the MLB slate is small doesn’t mean there aren’t winners to be found.
If you know me at all you know that I love betting on home run prop bets. In today’s seemingly home run or strikeout landscape in the MLB, home run props can be very profitable if you know where to look.
How hitters do against a certain pitcher, in a certain ballpark or in a certain month can all be good indicators of whether or not they’ll go yard on a given day, among other factors. How pitchers fare in those same situations are important as well.
Also, aside from home run prop bets being very fun, I’m just a sucker for a good plus money bet.
So, here’s who I like to go deep today:
CLE @ SEA, 4:10 p.m., Mitch Haniger +330 (FanDuel)
The first thing I look at for any home run prop isn’t actually the hitter, it’s the starting pitcher. And while Cleveland starter Triston McKenzie can be dominant, he gets hurt by the long ball, especially on the road.
This season, McKenzie has given up 15 home runs in 83.1 innings on the road compared to five homers in 58.1 innings at home. These numbers are consistent with his career numbers where he’s given up more than double the amount of home runs away from Progressive Field in just 37 more innings pitched.
Another thing I pay attention to for a starting pitcher is how many days of rest they’re on and how that affects them on the mound. In McKenzie’s case, he will be pitching on five days rest and that does not bode well for him generally.
In his career, McKenzie has let up 25 home runs in 125.1 innings with five days of rest. My general rule of thumb is if a pitcher has thrown around 200 innings in any situation and has given up anything close to 30 bombs, in all likelihood they’ll do it again. At McKenzie’s rate, he would blow those numbers out of the water.
All of these numbers are compounded even more when you consider McKenzie is playing a team in the Seattle Mariners who are above .500. In 27 starts against teams equal to or above .500, McKenzie sports a 5.17 career ERA, having allowed 32 home runs in 141.0 innings. Those stats change drastically when playing against teams below .500. All that to say, McKenzie struggles mightily against good teams.
But this pick isn’t just a fade of McKenzie. In his last seven games, Haniger has hit two home runs and while his batting average over those seven games hasn’t been great, all he needs to do is put the ball over the fence once to cash the bet.
In fact, I actually suspect Haniger to break out at the plate today. In 22 games against the Guardians, Haniger is slashing .342/.438/1.162 with seven home runs. Clearly, he loves playing against Cleveland.
And even if McKenzie is pulled from the game early, Haniger should have no problem getting to the Cleveland bullpen who have given up the eighth most home runs during day games this season.
