By Scott Kacsmar
With the NFL’s 2022 regular season kicking off on Thursday, we have 15 other games coming up this weekend that you can bet on now. This looks like an interesting week with 10 road teams favored to win.
Which lines are the most enticing? Let’s look at four of our favorites for Week 1.
Patriots at Dolphins (-2.5)
While still coming to terms with a world where the Bills have the best team and quarterback in the AFC East, what if the Dolphins are better than the Patriots too?
Miami swept the Patriots last year for the first time since 2000, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 3-0 as a starter against Bill Belichick. He has not been spectacular in the games, but he’s avoided the big mistakes that plague young quarterbacks against New England.
Now with head coach Mike McDaniel bringing the Kyle Shanahan-style offense to Miami with Tyreek Hill, Tagovailoa should be at his best this year. The Dolphins also have a solid defense that gets a lot of takeaways as it retained defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, another former Patriots staffer.
Belichick can plan to limit Hill’s damage, but the Dolphins still present plenty of speed and problems with Jaylen Waddle and newly acquired Cedrick Wilson Jr. from Dallas. They also should have a good running back by committee this year.
With the Patriots, losing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels could be one of the biggest blows to any coaching staff this season. He has been with Belichick for the better part of this entire run. He was the coordinator of the offense in 2008 when the Patriots had to start Matt Cassel, a seventh-round pick who hadn’t started a game since high school, and they led the NFL in first downs and won 11 games. Obviously, Mac Jones had the best rookie season of the quarterbacks in the 2021 class last year, and they did it without top-tier talent at the skill positions.
But to replace McDaniels with two stooges and retreads in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge? This isn’t what Belichick needs at 70 years old. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have one of the brightest young coaching minds on their side now. Someone who has followed Kyle Shanahan around since 2006 and should be able to implement this vaunted system that has inflated the stats for the likes of Matt Schaub, Kirk Cousins, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Why not for Tagovailoa next?
The other thing to like about Miami here is the home-field advantage in the September heat. It is clearly on Belichick’s mind as he flew the team down early to adjust to it. Since 2000, Belichick is 9-13 in Miami, a shocking record for a coach who has a winning record almost everywhere. It’s not like the Dolphins have had many good teams since Dan Marino retired in 2000.
But this could be one of the best teams in years down south, so let’s go with the Dolphins to continue this new mastery of the Patriots in a fourth-straight win.
NFL Pick: Dolphins -2.5 (-128) at FanDuel
Packers at Vikings (+1.5)
This line keeps moving towards Minnesota you better hurry before the Vikings end up favored on Sunday. In general terms, the Vikings should be upgraded with a new head coach in Kevin O’Connell, and the Packers look to be downgraded with the loss of Davante Adams, the most prolific receiver in the NFL in the last few seasons.
The Vikings needed fresh eyes on the coaching staff in a bad way as Mike Zimmer was burned out on the job. Hiring your son as a defensive coordinator is an NFL nepotism move, but it was not doing the Vikings any favors on that side of the ball. O’Connell is another Sean McVay understudy, but he should do well with Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen.
The Packers are not going to fade away without Adams. They are 7-0 without him in the Matt LaFleur era and Aaron Rodgers has great numbers in those games. But this will be different as it’s a full season instead of small patches of games. The Packers also did not do a ton to replace him, so it will be a receiver-by-committee approach that could be the weakest receiving corps of Rodgers’ career as he approaches turning 40.
But the main reason to like Minnesota at home is that the offense has been very good in Cousins’ last three starts against the Packers, scoring at least 28 points each time. The Packers also have just one sweep (2019) of the Vikings in the last seven seasons, so Minnesota usually is a solid bet to get at least a split. Better off betting on them in Week 1 when things are new, Cook is healthy, and the Packers are trying to figure things out post-Davante.
NFL Pick: Vikings +1.5 (-105) at FanDuel
Browns at Panthers (-2.5)
If Baker Mayfield has one great game for the entirety of the time he spends in Carolina, he will be happy as long as that game is Sunday against Cleveland. Most revenge games lack a real spice to them, but not this one. The Browns wanted an “adult” at quarterback, so they acquired Deshaun Watson in the middle of being accused of sexual misconduct by 24 women, and traded Mayfield to Carolina.
That slap in the face will never be forgotten. Now Mayfield goes to a team that arguably has better weapons than the Browns if you consider Christian McCaffrey’s receiving capabilities compared to Nick Chubb. D.J. Moore is also a very productive wideout who is better than Amari Cooper at this stage of his career.
The Panthers were also September darlings last year with a 3-0 record with Sam Darnold leading the league in rushing touchdowns. The defense was dominating bad offenses and it was obviously fool’s gold with the team finishing 5-12. But it shows that Matt Rhule at least knows how to start a season well and take advantage of a soft schedule.
I do not expect the moment to be too emotional or big for Mayfield. He won a playoff game in Pittsburgh with a 28-0 first-quarter surge. He battled in Kansas City the last two seasons. This is going to be very important to him, and he still has one of the best backs in the league to lean on as well as his defense facing Jacoby Brissett.
Go all in on Carolina in Week 1, because you may not want to the rest of the season.
NFL Pick: Panthers -2.5 (-112) at FanDuel
Buccaneers at Cowboys (+1.5)
This is a rematch of last year’s opener, a 31-29 escape by the Buccaneers at home on a last-second field goal. Now the venue shifts to Dallas, but the Cowboys were pretty stagnant in multiple home games last season. Who could forget the 30-0 deficit against Denver with five minutes left to play? The playoff loss to San Francisco was the worst loss of Dak Prescott’s career, highlighted by that absurd quarterback draw in the final seconds.
Now the Cowboys come back without Amari Cooper (traded to Cleveland) and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (signed by Miami), so the depth is not as good at receiver even if there is still perfectly fine talent with CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup. Then the offensive line lost La’el Collins (Bengals) and Tyron Smith (injured in camp), so that is going to be weaker.
Plus, the Cowboys beat up on a bad division last year. They were 6-0 against the NFC East with monster stats compared to 6-6 and mediocre results outside the division. The league-high 34 takeaways on defense? Good luck coming close to that again.
The Cowboys look like a team on the decline. Maybe the Buccaneers are in the same boat after head coach Bruce Arians, guard Ali Marpet, and tight end Rob Gronkowski retired. Tom Brady retired too, but that only lasted 40 days once he saw the path to another Super Bowl open in the NFC.
Wide receiver Chris Godwin is back after tearing his ACL last December. He is not 100% to play on Sunday night, but he has a better chance of returning for this game than Gallup does for Dallas.
This is a small spread, but I do not see the game being that razor close at the end as it was last year. I like the Tampa Bay defense to keep the running game in check and force Prescott into some mistakes. Brady’s arm is well rested for Week 1. This should be a good start for Tampa Bay, the odds-on favorite in the NFC again.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers -1.5 (-114) at FanDuel
