The 2021-22 NHL regular season is finally over after that Seattle Kraken-Winnipeg Jets game that determined the final percentages for the upcoming draft lottery.
That means it’s Stanley Cup playoff time — a two-month grind where 16 teams will be whittled down to two, which will end with one champion. Will the Tampa Bay Lightning make it a three-peat? Can the Colorado Avalanche finally reach the top? How magical will this spring be for the Florida Panthers? Is a Stanley Cup “Storm Surge” in our future?
With the First Round beginning Monday night, it’s time for us to give our predictions and how we see the next few months unfolding.
Colorado vs Nashville
The league-dominating Colorado Avalanche will take on the Nashville Predators, one of the last teams to get into the playoffs, in a Stanley Cup Playoffs first-round matchup that looks completely lopsided on paper. We have seen many times upsets like this over the last few years, so in playoff hockey you never know.
The Avalanche has an overwhelming amount scorers, with Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon, sensational defenceman Cale Makar, pending-free-agent beast Nazem Kadri, Andre Burakovsky, captain Gabriel Landeskog, Devon Toews and Valeri Nichushkin all finishing with 50 points or more. With all of that being said we would be remiss if we didn’t bring up the fact that the Preds did win the season series, so they are capable of winning.
On the injury front, Avs captain Gabriel Landeskog is getting ready to return from surgery. Meanwhile, Preds goalie Juuse Saros sat out for the last two games of the season with a lower-body injury. If Saros is playing hurt, this is over before it begins.
Prediction:
This should be a no contest sweep by the Avs. If there was ever a lopsided matchup in the playoffs, this is the one.
Pick: Avs in 4
Minnesota vs St.Louis
The Minnesota Wild (53-22-7) and St. Louis Blues (49-22-11) will clash in Round 1 of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Wild finished second in the Central Division with 113 points, while the Blues were right behind them with 109 points. The Blues did win all three regular-season meetings.
Minnesota is led by Russian superstar Kirill Kaprizov, who surpassed the 100-point mark in his second season. He also finished the regular season inside the top 10 for the Hart Trophy. The big concern is the health of his linemate Mats Zuccarello, who is dealing with an upper-body injury. Zuccarello had 79 points and is questionable for Game 1. The Wild haven’t won a playoff series since 2015.
The Blues have an explosive offense with plenty of firepower on every line. St. Louis features nine different players who have scored 20-plus goals, including 30-goalscorers Vlad Tarasenko and Pavel Buchnevich.
Prediction:
This is maybe the most evenly contested series in all of the playoffs. The Blues are an excellent road team and have an advantage in goal and I like the Blues.
Pick: Blues in 7
Calgary vs Dallas
After a 50-win season, the Flames return to the playoffs with a significant turnaround from missing out in 2021’s North Division. And they’re back, thanks to one of their best regular seasons in team history. No Canadian team has won the Stanley Cup since 1993, and if any team from up North can win it this year, it would be the Flames.
Calgary’s defense has been better than expected, and the Flames have a trio of 40-goal scorers making up their top line and a goalie who could qualify as a Vezina finalist.
The Stars remain a struggling offense, but they have a super line. Their strength remains defense, but it’s not as stout as 2020 and the goalies behind them are not as proven.
The Stars have been playing playoff style games for months fighting to get in. That will probably help them win one in this series. Otherwise the Flames are just too darn good in all the major areas of the game. Calgary’s special teams are excellent and they’re physical, so it’s hard to envision any scenario where the Stars can defeat the Flames.
Prediction:
In my eyes, Calgary is just the better team and will come out on top here.
Pick: Calgary in 6
Los Angeles vs Edmonton
This matchup is being dubbed the Wayne Gretzky Series since the Great One was a star for both franchises. The Kings have the edge in goaltending but it won’t be enough to stop the Oilers high-powered offense led by Connor McDavid.
A coaching change turned the Oilers’ season around. Since Woodcroft replaced Dave Tippett around Feb. 10, the Oilers are 26-9-3. That’s good for a .724 points percentage, the NHL’s third-best mark behind the Panthers (.757) and Flames (.731).
The Playoffs are for the big boys and some young Kings defensemen could be thrown into the fire against McDavid, Draisaitl, and the rest of the Oilers’ top scorers. That is not something that Kings fans want to be worried about.
The numbers that stick out most to me are the Oilers advantage on Special Teams. Both teams are average penalty killers but Edmonton is an elite power play creator. They have scored on 26.1 percent of power plays (second in the NHL) compared to L.A.’s 16.1 percent (25th in the NHL).
Prediction:
Youth on defense and special teams will be the difference in this series.
Pick: Oilers in 7
Bruins vs Hurricanes
Carolina dominated the season series, out-scoring the Bruins 16-1. That alone should make this an easy series to pick, shouldn’t it?
The power play will be the key for the Bruins to turn around what happened during the regular season against the Hurricanes. The Bruins’ 5-on-5 scoring was much improved at the end of the season, and they have a real chance if they can get the power play going.
The Bruins were ranked No. 6 in goals and No. 1. Since Jan. 1, they were an offensively poor 5-on-5 team over the first three months. However, in January, Bruce Cassidy’s line changes led to a dramatic turnaround. The Hurricanes were the most successful penalty-killer in the regular season, with an 88 percent success ratio. This means that the Bruins must execute well.
The Hurricanes need to shut down Boston’s second line of Taylor Hall, Erik Haula and David Pastrnak. They played well the last week of the season. Another critical factor is that the Bruins played the three games against Carolina early in the season; they are a much better team than they were in the middle of January.
Prediction:
I like the Bruins in this series; I think the Hurricanes are struggling in Goal, and that, combined with a newfound Bruins offense to go with an already stout defense, leads to a Bruins win.
Pick: Bruins in 6
Rangers vs Penguins
The New York Rangers won three games against the Pittsburgh Penguins in a span of fewer than two weeks from March, 25-April 7. They limited Pittsburgh to four goals in four games in their regular-season series.
But this is the playoffs, which means it likely won’t matter now; the playoffs are a different entity.
Goaltending is always big come playoff time, and the Pens have some issues there. Due to a lower-body injury, Casey DeSmith is expected to be the Game 1 starter, with Tristan Jarry still out. Jarry was the Penguins’ No. 1 goalie all season until he sustained his injury during a 6-3 win against the New York Islanders on April 14.
The Rangers’ outlook in Goal is much brighter and settled. Shesterkin is the favorite to win the Vezina Trophy as the NHL’s best goalie this season, and he’s been in the national discussion for the Hart Trophy, which is given to the NHL’s most valuable player. Shesterkin leads the NHL with a 2.07 goals-against average and .935 save percentage, going 36-13-4 with six shutouts in 53 games (52 starts). The Rangers have a massive advantage in Goal.
Prediction:
The Rangers will win this series; they are just the better team right now.
Pick: Rangers in 6
Panthers vs Capitals
This should be a good series if Alexander Ovechkin is healthy. He missed the last three games of the season with an upper-body injury but it’s believed he will be ready for the start. However, the Panthers won the Presidents Trophy and are a heavy favorite to win this one– it won’t be a cakewalk.
The Florida Panthers are the highest-scoring team of the cap era and something of a throwback — the Panthers are the first team since the 1995-96 Penguins to average over four goals per game (4.11). A young-ish team that’s taken some time to mature, this core lost in the qualifying round two years ago and the first round last season. Can that translate to winning the Stanley Cup? We have seen high-powered teams come up short over the previous decade. Can the Panthers win it all with offense?
This year’s Caps are less intimidating than those of a decade or so ago but fully seasoned and capable of jumping up and biting when you least expect it. Ovechkin is still at his peak, and the top of the roster can still bring the offense.
Prediction:
I do not think the Panthers will win it all this year as there are just too many questions on defense. But they will win this series handily in 5 games.
Pick: Panthers in 6
Maple Leafs vs Lightning
By many measurements, 2021-22 was a historically good season for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Fifty-four wins. One hundred and fifteen points. Sixty goals and a new franchise record for Auston Matthews. The Maple Leafs are looking to win the Stanley Cup in more than 50 years, and a season like this would be a great chance to end the curse? But the two-time defending Cup Champions await the Leafs.
Four meetings yielded 28 goals, with Tampa outscoring Toronto 16-12. A pair of April games showed how emotionally charged this series could be.
Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner will have to come up big for the Leafs to win this series, and in last year’s collapse against Montreal, they did next to nothing.
The Maple Leafs have been unable to make noise in the playoffs for a long time. They are loaded up front and decent in their own zone. Jack Campbell will need to be at his best in order to beat the defending champs.
Meanwhile, the Lightning will be coming in hot and healthy. Steven Stamkos has 10 goals and 16 assists in his last 9 games.
Prediction:
This is the worst possible matchup for Toronto, and the difference in this series will be between the pipes, where the Lightning has a considerable advantage.
Pick: Tampa Bay in 6
