The NBA Conference Semifinals have arrived after several top threats faced a scare in the first round. The No. 1 overall seeded Phoenix Suns were nearly derailed by Devin Booker’s injury, but rallied to beat the Pelicans in six games. The defending champion Milwaukee Bucks went cold for six quarters before finding their stroke again and offing the Bulls.
We’re here to find the best series bets for you as we preview the second round of the 2022 NBA Playoffs. Games tipped off Sunday, so we’ve updated our analysis to reflect the current standings. Game 1 of Miami-Philadelphia and Phoenix-Dallas tip off on Monday evening.
No. 1 Phoenix Suns vs. No. 4 Dallas Mavericks
When it comes to the Mavericks, we can only consider the time since their trade of Kristaps Porzingis for a combination of Spencer Dinwiddie and Davis Bertans. Since that trade, the Mavs have tied the Suns and Celtics with the most wins in the league (20) against the second-fewest losses (7).
Add in their ability to win a playoff series for the first time in Luka Doncic’s four-year career, you have to believe this is the best Mavericks team in a decade. The Mavericks could be the Suns toughest Western Conference playoff opponent yet over the last two seasons, with full health and a laser focus in the clutch.
Since the trade, they play a five-out offense and hoist threes at a high rate — 5th most attempts, 9th-highest 3P% — while sacrificing rebounds (25th-ranked, well behind the Suns 15th ranked over the same time period).
Like the Bledsoe/Dragic-led Suns teams of yesteryear, most of their scoring comes from their playmakers. They rank just 29th in assists since the big trade, despite taking the 5th-most threes in the league. Luka Doncic, Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie often begin and end possessions with a dribble drive or pullup.
The Mavs had the second-best record in the league since the Feb 10 trade (20-7 record) despite only posting the league’s 8th-best offense, 14th-best defense and 10th-best net rating (tied with New Orleans).
How? Winning the clutch, baby. They are a league-best 11-2 in the clutch since the trade. Their efficiency is off the charts, with a +38.6 net rating over 100 possessions that rivals the Suns at their best. They cut their turnovers to almost nothing, and make almost all their shots.
For reference, the Suns were 33-9 in the clutch this season. They were 24-3 before the All-Star break with a net rating of +41.2 over 100 possessions, but were just 9-6 in the clutch after the All-Star break as they lost a bit of focus with such a big lead over the field. The Suns lead in the West after the All-Star break never dropped below 5 games. Three of the Suns post-All-Star clutch losses were at the hands of the third-stringers during the last two weeks of the season (1-3 in the clutch in meaningless April games).
In each team’s first round playoff matchup, the Suns were 2-1 in the clutch with a +35 net rating per 100 possessions while the Mavericks were 3-2 with a +5.3 net rating per 100 possessions.
The Suns swept this season series 3-0, though they never faced the current iteration of the Mavs. I expect these to be close games as the Mavericks are a clearly better version now. Jalen Brunson has drastically elevated his play and is a great sidekick. However, Devin Booker is healthy and his return will keep the Suns winning.
Pick: Suns in 6 (+400)
No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 4 Philadelphia 76ers
News that Joel Embiid has an orbital fracture and mild concussion has drained some excitement from this series. Embiid is out indefinitely, and will miss at least the first game. Philadelphia was already outsiders in Eastern Conference odds, but they have no chance without the MVP candidate.
Miami has some of its own injury concerns after Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler missed Game 5 against Atlanta and P.J. Tucker, Caleb Martin and Tyler Herro sat out Friday’s practice. While the Heat remain cautious with Lowry and Butler, Tucker, Martin and Herro are all expected to take the hardwood for Game 1.
Butler had himself one helluva playoff series against the Atlanta Hawks as he played in four of the five games and he averaged 30.5 points for Miami in a 4-1 series win. Defending the former Sixers star is going to be the big challenge for Philadelphia in this one and it’s a challenge that guys like Tobias Harris and Matisse Thybulle will have to embrace.
He averaged 18.7 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.7 rebounds in three games against the Sixers during the regular season. One of those games was a tough 1-for-11 performance in January where he just missed a majority of his open looks. How the Sixers defend him on the perimeter will be hugely important considering the absence of Joel Embiid.
Philadelphia needs James Harden to be at his best if they are to stay in this series while Embiid is out. Harden put in his best performance of the postseason in the first round clincher, but he has struggled to get separation over the last couple of months and has been primarily a playmaker rather than a scorer. The Heat have several defenders who can make his life difficult.
Harden logged over 38 minutes in each of his first round games. Those heavy minutes are about to be twice as strenuous against a Heat defense that has suffocated foes to a defensive rating below 102 in each of their four most popular lineups. Harden will need to generate more points in the paint that he has with the Sixers, as he’s settling for half his shots beyond the three-point line.
The availability of Embiid is obviously a massive factor in this matchup. It’s likely he can play with the orbital fracture once he gets over the concussion, but there’s no guarantee he will be able to play at all. The combination of Harden and Tyrese Maxey might be able to steal a game, but this will be over quickly if Embiid cannot return for Game 2 or 3.
Pick: Miami in a gentleman’s sweep, 5 games (+220)
No. 2 Memphis Grizzlies vs. No. 3 Golden State Warriors
(Warriors lead 1-0)
The series opener between the Grizzlies and Warriors was a fantastic heavyweight bout. The Warriors were able to steal the road game with clutch late-game shooting from Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole. The 117-116 victory was a statement performance from Golden State that they’re not ready to be the elders of the West who will be simply cast aside by the new guys.
The scary thing for Memphis was losing despite hitting 16 threes on 40 percent shooting from deep. Will they get a combined 10 threes from Jaren Jackson Jr. and Ja Morant again? If not, and the Warriors get slightly better shooting from either Klay Thompson or Andrew Wiggins, this series could be a blowout.
Playing the over in subsequent games is absolutely recommended. Even though both Memphis and Golden State play defense at a high level, the turnover battle helped spur easy points in the paint. Both teams are amongst the league’s leaders in assist rate, which naturally means a higher turnover rate.
This somewhat negates great half-court defense when we’re looking at the totals.
Neither Golden State nor Memphis should love playing each other because their greatest advantages can be neutralized or matched by their foe. Memphis boasts legendary depth but Golden State has one of the deeper rotations in the NBA. The fact that Draymond Green only played 17 minutes in Game 1 and the Grizzlies lost is another bad sign they blew a perfect opportunity to steal a win.
We’re expecting a close, dogfight of a series. Memphis will need to turn up the intensity in transition. It’s hard to blame them for a loss when Morant had the chance to hit the game-winning layup, but the margin is that tight.
I like the more veteran and proven playoff team to navigate these tough waters. Stealing Game 1 will prove pivotal.
Pick: Warriors in 6 (+280)
No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 3 Milwaukee Bucks
(Bucks lead 1-0)
The Celtics and Bucks split the regular-season series 2-2 with the home team winning every game. However, that trend was already bucked in Game 1. Milwaukee, despite missing star shooter Khris Middleton, crushed the Celtics 101-89.
Game 1 was a mess for Boston. The Celtics lost badly on the glass and turned the ball over 18 times. Over the regular season, Milwaukee wasn’t a major threat when it came to turnovers either, earning just 13% turnovers on the year.
The Bucks will ultimately get more second chances but the Celtics are still the better defense despite what happened in Game 1. The Bucks will limit second chances on their end and limit foul shots but Boston’s offense was just a bit more consistent over the year.
The Bucks aren’t the Nets. The offense isn’t going to come easily. But look for the Celtics to make adjustments and improve on the defensive end while earning better shot attempts inside the arc.
Boston isn’t in a position to panic yet but being down 0-1 to the reigning NBA champions isn’t an ideal position to be in. The Celtics have enough in their bag to get a win in Game 2 but beyond that will take continued excellent defense and better shooting.
In Game 1, Boston’s top gunners were a bit silenced. Jayson Tatum scored 21 points but was just 6/18 from the field. Jaylen Brown only had 12 points on a salty 4/13 shooting. As a team, the Celtics shot only 33.3 percent from the field.
However, they were 18/50 from behind the arc, and that 3-point shooting is something the Celtics hope would carry over into the next game. Al Horford hit 4 of those threes on just 9 attempts, showing his willingness and reliability to make Milwaukee’s defense honest. I still dislike betting on Horford to come through in the clutch considering his playoff struggles in the past.
Tatum and Brown will be pressed to be more efficient offensively in Game 2 to pair up with Boston’s defense that still impressed in the series opener, holding Milwaukee to only 41.1 percent shooting.
On paper, Boston should win the series. But Giannis is playing as well as ever right now, carrying this hobbled but competent Milwaukee team to a high-level of defense. I think he can win three of the next six games as Boston’s awful offense continues to struggle.
Pick: Bucks in 7 (+650)
