By Robert Sanchez
Can you believe it’s finally here? Postseason baseball is officially back! With a brand new playoff format and 12 teams hungry to win the title it should be another unforgettable month of October. Kicking things off on Friday afternoon will be the Wild Card Round in the American League and the National League with eight teams fighting for four spots in the Division Series.
In the AL, the No 3. seed Cleveland Guardians take on the No. 6 seed Tampa Bay Rays and the No. 4 seed Toronto Blue Jays face off against the No. 5 seed Seattle Mariners.
After finishing the regular season with a 3-3 record over my last six plays (following a terrible 0-9 stretch), I’m looking to clean the slate this postseason and start fresh. And although the playoffs are filled with elite starting pitching, it’s also when big players come up with big moments.
So, even though it’s tougher than usual to hit on player prop bets — especially home run props — during the playoffs, there is still certainly going to be some drama. And just like October baseball, I too have a flare for the dramatics.
With that being said, here are my best American League MLB Postseason bets, including my predictions for the Game 1 winners:
TB @ CLE, Wild Card Series Game 1, 12:07 p.m., Shane Bieber o5.5 Ks +120 (DraftKings, Bet365)
In the first game of the day, I’m going with Bieber to have at least six strikeouts. The Rays rank in the top half of the league in strikeouts, having struck out 1,395 times this season which is fifth in the American League. Among playoff teams, Tampa Bay is third in strikeouts, behind the Seattle Mariners (by just two) and Atlanta Braves.
Against right-handers is who the Rays really struggle making contact with, racking up 1,099 strikeouts — good for third in MLB and second in the AL behind the Los Angeles Angels (by just four). Interestingly enough, against lefties Tampa Bay is one of the hardest teams to strike out. Good thing Bieber is a righty.
On the road, the Rays once again rank fifth in the AL in striking out with 728. At home, they’re much harder to strike out. Must be The Trop.
Anyway, Bieber has gone over this number in 21 of his 31 starts this season including eight of 13 starts at home. In two starts against Tampa Bay, one at home and another on the road, Bieber had at least six strikeouts in both of them, finishing with 14 strikeouts over 13.0 innings. In six starts overall against the Rays, Bieber owns an 11.9 K/9 rate with 48 strikeouts in 36.1 innings or an average of eight strikeouts per start.
Bieber has also been a workhorse for the Guardians this season, amassing 200 innings pitched and pitching at least six innings in 25 of his 31 starts and 10 of his 13 home starts. Since July 12, the two-time All-Star has gone six innings or more in 14 out of 15 starts. The only start he didn’t complete at least six innings during that stretch was his final start of the season on Oct. 2 in a meaningless game against the last-place Kansas City Royals that manager Terry Francona took him out after 80 pitches to rest up for this start.
Because of that, I expect Bieber to go at least six innings (o17.5 outs is -145 on DraftKings) which should give him all the more chances to strike hitters out. And after the off day for every team on Thursday and this game being the first one of the day, I think the hitters — on both teams — will be a little off from the beginning which gives the pitcher the advantage.
Over 5.5 strikeouts at plus money for a strikeout-heavy pitcher who should go deep into the game against a team that strikes out a lot? What’s not to like?
Game 1 Prediction: Guardians win 2-1
SEA @ TOR, Wild Card Series Game 1, 4:07 p.m., George Springer HR +575 (Bet365); Raimel Tapia o0.5 hits -165 (DraftKings), o1.5 total bases +165 (FanDuel)
Let’s start with Springer. Finishing off the 2022 regular season with a flurry, Springer slashed .321/.345/.536 with two home runs over his last seven games. In 133 games this season, the 33-year-old finished with 25 home runs in his second year in Toronto.
Back to the postseason for the first time since as a member of the Houston Astros, Springer has been a force to be reckoned with in October. His 19 home runs in the playoffs already rank him tied for fifth for most career postseason home runs in MLB history. In the spotlight once again, this time trying to send his Blue Jays to the ALDS, I think Springer starts off with a bang.
In just 29 more at-bats, Springer has hit five more home runs at home than on the road this season and has enjoyed plenty of success at Rogers Centre so far during his early tenure in Toronto. He’s also preferred day games to night games this season, which is also true for his career, and has hit right-handed pitchers better than left-handed pitchers all season.
So who’s he facing? right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ big acquisition at the trade deadline this season. And although he’s pitched well for Seattle since coming over from the Cincinnati Reds, Castillo has not been at his best pitching on the road for the Mariners.
In six road starts with Seattle which spans 33.2 innings, the righty has given up 18 earned runs and four home runs, quite the difference from his five earned runs and two home runs allowed in five home starts (31.2 innings).
In fact, for his career Castillo is 21-29 on the road with an ERA more than a full run higher than his ERA at home (4.15 vs. 3.10). While most of those losses are with the Reds who have not been very good since Castillo’s debut in 2017, the ERA speaks for itself.
Back to Springer, let’s not forget that during his time with the Astros, he faced the Mariners a ton in the AL West so he’s quite familiar with them. In 107 games against Seattle, the slugger has 24 home runs and a .258/.351/.487 slashline.
As for Tapia, the 28-year-old has seen Castillo the most out of any other Blue Jays hitter — he and Castillo matched up a handful of times in the National League when Castillo was on the Reds and Tapia played for the Colorado Rockies — and has the best numbers off of him. In 11 career at-bats, Tapia has seven hits including a double, triple and home run. All of that is good for a .636/.667/1.182 slashline and a ridiculous 1.848 OPS.
Like Springer, the lefty-hitting outfielder hit quite well to end his regular season, slashing .296/.345/.407 with a home run over his last seven games. And even though he doesn’t have as much postseason experience as Springer, Tapia does have one hit in one career postseason at-bat that came in 2017 when the Rockies played the Arizona Diamondbacks in the Wild Card game.
I think seeing a familiar foe in Castillo will ease any nerves Tapia may or may not have and with numbers like that against Castillo, I think he can easily get at least one hit and perhaps even more which is why I’m sprinkling over 1.5 total bases, as well.
Game 1 Prediction: Blue Jays win 5-2
