Three Premier League clubs are competing for two berths to the UEFA Champions League, and two of them are yet to face one another before the season concludes. Who will be snubbed for UCL qualification?
Arsenal, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur are all in the mix to earn Champions League football and the trio of London clubs lie within six points of each other. The aforementioned teams are left with four league matches apiece and we analyze the chances each has of attaining a top-four spot.
Business end 💼 pic.twitter.com/LK2M6pgXLq
— Premier League (@premierleague) May 1, 2022
Chelsea
Chelsea seemed comfortable in 3rd place however the Champions League holders have taken seven points out of 18 since the start of April, tasting defeat three times in their last six games. Thomas Tuchel’s team are still 3rd with 66 points and they need a minimum six more points to secure a top-four finish.
After defeats to Brentford and Everton in recent weeks, the Blues will be wary of any and all opposition regardless of league positions. Chelsea are still to host Wolves and Leicester City, and they also prepare for a trip to Leeds United (currently two points above the drop zone) in addition to a home clash with relegation-bound Watford on the final day of the campaign.
Arsenal
After three successive losses to Crystal Palace, Brighton and Southampton, Mikel Arteta’s army have bounced back on a note of determination and intent by taking three victories on the bounce against Chelsea, Manchester United and West Ham – all of whom sit in the top seven places. Arsenal are three points adrift of Chelsea and will need to win at least half of their final four games if they are to withstand the intra-London scrap for UCL football.
Arsenal’s remaining two home matches come against Leeds Utd and Everton, both fighting for top-flight survival, and the Gunners also contest a crucial six-pointer with Spurs before an away outing to Newcastle Utd on the penultimate weekend of the season. Victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on 12 May would all but seal Arsenal’s berth to the 2022/23 Champions League.
3 – Arsenal have won three consecutive Premier League games with each coming against opponents starting the day within the top seven positions (Chelsea, Man Utd and West Ham) for the first time since March 2012 under Arsène Wenger (Spurs, Liverpool and Newcastle). Competitive. pic.twitter.com/DdOBGzZjoM
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) May 1, 2022
Tottenham
Tottenham remain alive in the race for Champions League football after five wins from their last seven league meetings. Spurs’ late season run-in is arguably tougher than their fellow top-four foes’, however the experience and managerial prowess of Antonio Conte will be pivotal if they are to overcome adversity and qualify for Europe’s primary club competition for the first time in three years.
Tottenham visit Anfield on Saturday for a mammoth encounter with title contenders Liverpool, before they play host to local rivals Arsenal five days later. Spurs’ final two tasks sees them entertain a resurgent Burnley outfit before a final-day bout away at relegated Norwich City.
Without conquering Arsenal in the North London derby it will be almost impossible for Spurs to creep into the top four before the season draws to a close. In the last two PL campaigns, Chelsea twice finished 4th with 67 points last term and 66 points in 2019/20. Only one other season (2015/16) throughout the last nine has seen 66 points suffice to claim a top-four finish. Should the final league standings be decided by virtue of goal difference, Chelsea hold the upper hand with a +19 GD greater than Spurs and +26 GD on Arsenal.
Realistically, Man United are out of the running for a Champions League spot as they trail Arsenal by eight points and have played a game more than the Gunners. The Red Devils can end on a maximum 64 points, one more than Arsenal currently have. It is mathematically impossible for West Ham to finish inside the top five albeit the Hammers could still obtain UCL qualification by winning the Europa League.
This author predicts Chelsea and Arsenal to end 3rd and 4th, respectively, and for Spurs to narrowly miss out on the top four, instead qualifying for the UEFA Europa League. Be sure to vote in the poll below and comment your thoughts/predictions on who will earn Champions League qualification!
