By Scott Kacsmar
The Baltimore Ravens have started 8-4 in each of the last two seasons, yet both felt incomplete as Lamar Jackson was injured in December and never played another game in both years. At the time when Jackson was injured, the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in both years, only to see the Bengals go on to win both division titles.
With Jackson finally getting his contract extension from the team, he has a chance to play his best since his 2019 MVP season as the Ravens have hired a new offensive coordinator and supplied Jackson with more receiving talent than ever before.
The Bengals are still favored by the sportsbooks to win the AFC North again, but the Ravens continue creeping up behind them in those odds. Baltimore’s over/under of 10.5 wins is only a single win off the line of the top teams in the NFL in 2023.
We look back at a frustrating 2022 season, the key offseason changes, how Jackson could have his best passing season yet, and the best Ravens bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Well, That Blew
It may not feel like it because of how things ended, but 2022 could have been one of the best seasons ever for the Baltimore Ravens. Instead, it was arguably the most frustrating season in franchise history.
The 2022 Ravens were only the sixth team in NFL history to have a double-digit lead in each of their first 10 games, joining the 1942 Bears, 1964 Bills, 1984 Dolphins, 2009 Saints, and 2011 Packers. Historic company.
But those teams were all 10-0 or 9-1 during their starts. The Ravens were only 7-3 last year, and a week later, they blew a 9-point lead in Jacksonville. In fact, during a 9-4 start, Baltimore’s only losses were blown leads to playoff teams:
- Week 2 vs. Miami: Blew a 35-14 lead in the fourth quarter, including a dropped interception halfway through the quarter that could have ended the threat from the Dolphins.
- Week 4 vs. Buffalo: Blew a 20-3 lead in the first half, and Jackson threw an interception on 4th-and-goal with 4:09 left in a 20-20 game.
- Week 6 at Giants: Blew a 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter after Jackson turned the ball over twice in the final 3:00.
- Week 12 at Jacksonville: Blew leads of 19-10 and 27-20 in the fourth quarter after allowing a game-deciding 2-point conversion with 14 seconds left (Justin Tucker was straight but short on what would have been a record 67-yard field goal as time expired).
This is not the Baltimore team we are used to seeing. The Ravens blew more 17-point leads by Week 4 last year than they did in every season from 1998 through 2021 combined. In total, the 2022 Ravens blew five multi-possession leads, equaling the total they had in 2018-21.
There was no one consistent factor in blowing leads. Sometimes it was a defensive letdown, sometimes it was a coaching error like the fourth down call against Buffalo, and sometimes it was Jackson turning the ball over.
In fact, Jackson’s turnovers against the Giants basically ended his MVP campaign after such a strong start to his season. But the injuries would start to mount again for the Ravens, and Jackson himself went down again in Week 13 against the Broncos. The Ravens failed to score more than 17 points in the final seven games without Jackson, who never was able to return to action.
At least this time the Ravens still made the playoffs with a 10-7 record. But they were limping in and were big underdogs against the rival Bengals in the wild-card round. However, even with Tyler Huntley starting at quarterback, the Ravens were driving for the go-ahead touchdown in a tied game in the fourth quarter. You cannot bash the call of a quarterback sneak, but the execution failed, and Huntley’s fumble was returned 98 yards for a record-setting fumble return touchdown in playoff history. The Bengals won 24-17 thanks to that play providing the winning margin.
It was almost inevitable the season would end in heartbreak for Baltimore, but upsetting the Bengals with Huntley would have been a nice consolation prize for so many blown leads and another Jackson injury.
Offseason Review
The Ravens finally locked up Lamar Jackson for the long term with a 5-year deal worth $260 million and $135 million fully guaranteed. We look at how his game might change in the next section, but the other big news in Baltimore is the hiring of offensive coordinator Todd Monken to replace Greg Roman, the OC for the last four seasons.
This could prove to be an excellent hire. Monken was formerly the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay before Tom Brady’s arrival. In 2018, he helped Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick combine to pass for 5,358 yards and 36 touchdowns, though the two mistake-prone passers also tossed 26 interceptions. Jackson has 38 interceptions in 1,655 career pass attempts.
Monken spent 2020-22 coordinating the offense in Georgia, which led to back-to-back national championships for Stetson Bennett and company. But that was not an offense built on throwing for 5,000 yards. Monken is going to help the Ravens create more explosive plays and stretch the field with a variety of skill players.
Roman did many great things for the Ravens, but there is a staleness to his run-heavy style that does not translate as well in the 2020s. At some point, you have to throw more to get really good at all the little things that extend drives like the short throws on 3rd-and-4 and the reads in the red zone. The Ravens finished 30th in red zone touchdown rate last year, so that area was an issue even before the disastrous playoff fumble at the goal line.
The Ravens mostly worked on their offense in the offseason, but the defense is usually reliable under John Harbaugh. The unit has cut a lot of veteran talent, including Justin Houston, Jason Pierre-Paul, Marcus Peters, and Calais Campbell. Those players were not going to be part of the long-term plans for this team.
The pass rush could be lacking, but the Ravens still have some key defenders, including Marlon Humphrey, Patrick Queen, and the team traded for linebacker Roquan Smith from Chicago last year. Smith has a full offseason to fit into the team’s defense.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Lamar Jackson Getting Back to MVP Form
There are only two teams in the NFL right now who can say their head coach has won a Super Bowl and their quarterback has won an MVP award. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes are an obvious duo in Kansas City as the reigning champs. But John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson have also achieved this.
They just have not been to a Super Bowl together yet, and that is the concern in Baltimore as no team has won a Super Bowl while starting the same quarterback for the same head coach for more than five seasons. Even Harbaugh’s lone Super Bowl in 2012 was Year 5 of his tenure with Joe Flacco at quarterback, so they barely beat the mark and never came close to getting back.
This is already Year 6 for Harbaugh and Jackson together, though maybe we can give them a break for Jackson’s last two years being incomplete due to injuries. It sure has been frustrating as Jackson’s only missed game for health reasons in 2018-20 was because he had a bad COVID test result in December 2020.
It is not like Jackson’s injuries have been a result of him carelessly scrambling or running in the open field. He is one of the greatest runners ever to play the quarterback position, but he does do a good job of protecting himself from big hits. Bad luck has been the culprit these last two years, but there is no doubt a higher injury risk for Jackson than your average pocket passer who gets the ball out faster.
But this change at offensive coordinator will hopefully get Jackson more involved as a passer and prolong his season. He has not passed for 3,000 yards since his unanimous MVP season in 2019.
If you look at the weapons Jackson had around him that year and what he has this year, 2023 should be his best group of skill players yet:
- TE Mark Andrews: One of the best receiving tight ends in the game, Andrews will look to end his drought of 10 games without a touchdown catch and have a big year.
- TE Isaiah Likely: No longer a rookie, the Ravens could have one of the best 2-tight end offenses in the league if they use Likely properly.
- WR Odell Beckham Jr.: The veteran returns to action after tearing his ACL in Super Bowl 56 with the Rams. He is past his prime, but he can still help a team and be a productive player.
- WR Rashod Bateman: The team’s first-round pick in 2021, Bateman was averaging 19.0 yards per catch and 10.2 yards per target before injury cost him 11 games last year.
- Slot WR Zay Flowers: This year’s first-round pick, Flowers from Boston College can be a very useful weapon in the slot and a high-efficiency receiver for Jackson.
When players like Devin Duvernay and Nelson Agholor can be your WR4 and WR5, you know you have built a fairly deep wide receiver corp. It is one with a good mixture of skills too as you have your proven veteran who can do a little of everything (Beckham), your slot player (Flowers), and your deep threats (Bateman and Agholor). Throw in a tight end in Andrews who is only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle at his position, and you have a talented, deep set of weapons for Jackson to utilize.
Not to mention Jackson’s legs are still a secret weapon that almost no quarterback can pull out. Scrambling for a first down on third-and-10 is still possible with Jackson, but it would be in the team’s best interest to get him in a pass-heavier system this year.
The Ravens are not going to completely abandon the run of course, and they still have a quality stable of backs in J.K. Dobbins, Gus Edwards, Justice Hill, and Melvin Gordon (just don’t let him touch the ball in the fourth quarter if you don’t want a heart-breaking fumble).
It is not uncommon for a quarterback to have an MVP-winning season (or close to it) when his receiving weapons are at their deepest and most talented. It happened for Peyton Manning (2004 Colts, 2013 Broncos), Tom Brady (2007 Patriots), Aaron Rodgers (2011 Packers), and Joe Montana (1989 49ers).
Jackson’s dual-threat ability makes him a bigger MVP threat without having a surefire 1,000-yard wideout. But Andrews can put up yardage numbers like that in this offense.
The Ravens were practically unwatchable on offense once Jackson was injured the last two seasons. If things go according to plan this season, the Ravens will be one of the best offenses to watch with one of the most unique quarterbacks the game has ever seen leading the way.
He just needs to stay healthy this time. Prove that guaranteed money was worth every cent and then some.
Best Bets for the 2023 Ravens
No one has won the AFC North three seasons in a row since division realignment in 2002. Had it not been for Jackson’s December injuries the last two years, Baltimore might be the team going for the 3-peat right now.
The schedule is challenging but playing a second-place schedule offers some advantages over Cincinnati in this division race. For example, the Bengals have to play the Chiefs and Bills while the Ravens do not get either. Instead, Baltimore faces the Chargers in prime time and gets to host Miami in Week 17.
With Joe Burrow’s calf strain injury, his mobility may be affected in Week 2 when the Ravens come to town. That is a good time to get the road game out of the way with Cincinnati. The rematch is Week 11 on a Thursday night, so advantage to Baltimore on a short week.
We know the Ravens can usually get a split with Pittsburgh, and Jackson has owned the Browns when he plays them. The Ravens also could face two rookie quarterbacks in September with games against Houston (C.J. Stroud) and Indianapolis (Anthony Richardson). There is also a span of 1.5 months in October and November where the Ravens only have to travel one time, and that is for a game with the team projected to be the worst in the league (Arizona Cardinals). A late bye in Week 13 should also be beneficial to get healthy for the playoff run.
This cycle of excessive 1-score losses and too many injuries since 2021 needs to end in Baltimore. Maybe with a new contract and better luck, this will be Jackson’s year to shine again.
I wish the Ravens had a more proven pass rusher like they did in the past with Terrell Suggs or Matt Judon. But trust in Harbaugh and Jackson to make this new offense under Monken work out with a team that will be solid on defense, and they still have the best kicker ever in Justin Tucker.
Our best bet is for the Ravens to finish with over 10.5 wins and reclaim the AFC North for the first time since the 2019 season.
NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens over 10.5 wins (-102 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Baltimore Ravens to win AFC North (+210 at FanDuel)
