With football season, both college and professional, closing in it can be easy to forget about baseball, but the MLB season is rounding the final turn and the best of the best are starting to separate themselves. Even with a lighter Monday slate, 365scores has you covered with a 3-team MLB favorites parlay. Below, I’ll list the parlay and explain my thinking behind each individual leg. Tonight, the thinking is around backing some hot pitchers, two of whom are facing slumping lineups.
The Play: White Sox ML (-162), Mets ML (-166), Cardinals ML (-174), +308 Total
*Note: These are FanDuel odds, odds for this play on DraftKings are just slightly worse at the time of this writing*
White Sox ML (-162)
This may be my favorite play of the day. Converted reliever Michael Kopech is having one heck of a season, even if the basic win-loss numbers don’t show it. The fireballer is two games removed from an 11-strikeout, no-hit performance against the Tigers and boasts a measly 1..07 WHIP in August.
Monday, he’ll have the luxury of facing a Royals lineup that is really struggling since dealing Whit Merrifield at the trade deadline. Kansas City is hitting just .224 in August with a putrid OPS under .700.
Monday, they’ll face the surging Kopech, whose season batting average against has dipped below .200. The underlying numbers tell an even better story.
Against Monday’s projected Royals lineup, Kopech has a wOBA against of just .236. Only slugger Salvador Perez has any type of success against Kopech, with two home runs in 12 at bats. Still, he has a strikeout rate of 50 percent against Kopech and nobody else in the lineup has done much in limited action against the White Sox righty.
On the other side, I like how the White Sox offense matches up against Daniel Lynch. In his last outing against the White Sox, Lynch was impressive, going six shutout innings. That said, he’s struggled a bit since the All-Star Break with lower strikeout and whiff rates. Back the Sox in an important game for one team but not necessarily the other.
Mets (-166)
At what point do we look at this Yankees losing streak as more than just a small blip coming out of the All-Star Break? The Yankee offense has been missing in action since the break, slugging just .356 in August in the midst of a 5-14 month.
Things won’t get easier against Max Scherzer and a talented Mets bullpen (Did I really just say that?) Scherzer has gone 6+ innings in all but two games this season (Both wins) and the Mets have won 12 of his 17 starts this year.
While the Yankees’ numbers against righties aren’t nearly as good and last time facing Scherzer, the lineup was baffled by the righty. It’s August, so I am wary of a Mets swoon, but the Yankee concerns are real and I like the Mets in the Subway Series opener.
Cardinals (-174)
Former Yankee Jordan Montgomery was dealt to St. Louis at the deadline and though he’s not the flashiest pitcher you’ll ever see, the underlying numbers are really good. Since moving to the Cardinals, Montgomery has given up one run total in three quality starts, tying his season-high in strikeouts each of the last two times out.
Monday he faces a Cubs lineup that is one of the worst in the majors against lefties. He hasn’t allowed much hard contact and should be able to work quickly through the lineup.
On the other side, the Cubs trot out a resurgent Drew Smyly, who is enjoying some of the best success he’s had in his 9-year career. The Cardinals simply have the righties to match up. In his age-42 season, Albert Pujols is mashing lefties and the Cardinals have had the courage to put him back into the middle of the order behind Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado. The Cardinals can go 8-deep with righties, should they choose to and should make some loud contact against Smyly. It can sometimes be risky backing a road favorite, but tonight I’m all over them.
