Arsenal are on an unprecedented hot streak – can they go the distance in the title race?
Less than four years ago, the situation for Arsenal was incredibly bleak. The Gunners wilted to an eighth-place finish in the league, just two points ahead of Sheffield United. Last week, they battered The Blades 6-0 at Bramall Lane to become the first Premier League team to score five in three consecutive Premier League games. This is an Arsenal team that means serious business. After years of promise and hope under Mikel Arteta, including a closely fought second-place finish last season, this Arsenal is the real deal and they could well go the distance in the title race.
Arsenal start games at a blistering pace. Sheffield United were quite literally suffocated by Arsenal’s high press on Monday and by the fifteenth minute, the home fans had seen enough and were making their way towards the exit stands. The Gunners have scored more first-half goals (30) than any other Premier League team, and 16 of those have come in the previous seven games. This isn’t the only record that belongs to Arsenal. Mikel Arteta’s men are shattering Premier League records at an alarming pace. Incredibly, they just broke the record for the most consecutive halves in which a team has scored two goals. It began against Liverpool on February 4th and continued through until the second half against Sheffield United where Arsenal firmly put the brakes on in second half. Granted, they were already 5-0 ahead. They’re literally the Grim Reaper of the league, breaking down teams one by one.
Arsenal have so many avenues of scoring and at the moment, they’re converting in almost all of them. The most simple, but also most effective it seems, is the set-piece. Gabriel is an imposing figure at 6ft4 and he makes the most of it. With Martin Odegaard’s pinpoint crossing, the Brazilian centre-back has scored three goals in 2024 alone. Another avenue is the cutback, one which Arsenal are utilising incredibly effectively. Running towards the byline, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli will cut it back towards the penalty spot towards an onrushing Odegaard, Kai Havertz or Leandro Trossard. The goalkeeper rarely stands a chance. It sounds simple, but it is an underutilised asset. If Saka doesn’t rate his options with the cutback, he’ll take it onto his left foot and curl the ball into the far corner. The Englishman is hitting top form in the business end of the season and has scored seven Premier League goals and created another two in 2024 alone. Then, if none of that is working, Declan Rice or Odegaard may just whip the ball into the upper echelon of the goal from whatever position they fancy. As they can score all types of goals, Arsenal at the moment are unstoppable.
Some have doubted the strength of Arsenal’s opponents during this incredible hot streak. Yet, in games played in 2024 post-break, Arsenal have played the most difficult fixtures out of them, Liverpool and Manchester City. By taking an average of the current points average of each opponent faced in 2024, it is evident that Arsenal have actually had the hardest schedule this year.
2024 Opponent’s Average Points (Current) | Points Won | |
Arsenal | 31.9 (Crystal Palace, Forest, Liverpool, West Ham, Burnley, Newcastle, Sheffield United) | (7 wins from 7) – 21 points |
Manchester City | 28.1 (Newcastle, Burnley, Brentford, Everton, Chelsea, Brentford, City, Manchester United) | (6 wins from 7) – 19 points |
Liverpool | 30.1 (Bournemouth, Chelsea, Arsenal, Burnley, Brentford, Luton, Forest) | (6 wins from 7) – 18 points |
This is Arsenal’s best team for the best part of the last twenty years. Whilst they lack a ruthless goal assassin of a Robin van Persie or Thierry Henry ilk, they are scoring plenty of goals. On the other end, they are stopping them. Arsenal have only conceded two, yes two, chances greater than 0.1 xG in 2024. Opposition attackers aren’t getting close to even a sniff. Not only have they conceded the fewest shots per game (7.8) in 2024, but the quality of the shot has also been the lowest in the league, according to StatsBomb.
Here’s another statistic, this time via Opta, Arsenal are only the second team to restrict their opponents to less than 0.5 xG in seven consecutive Premier League games after Man City in September and October of 2018 (also a run of 7), who then went on to win the title that season. Is that a sign?
So essentially, Arsenal are dominating all areas of the pitch. This is without Jurrien Timber (remember him?), Oleksandr Zinchenko, Gabriel Jesus (who has just returned), and Takehiro Tomiyasu. Their defence is imperious, Declan Rice looks like a bargain in the midfield, and the attack is scoring goal after goal. Some might say that Arsenal are heavily exceeding their expected goals recently, but they won’t care. Arsenal will ride high on the sheer lack of disrespect for the xG deities. As long as it leads them to their first title in exactly twenty years, they will not mind what shape or form it comes in. They’ve not looked more likely to win it since.
Arsenal face Brentford next on Saturday afternoon as they look to continue their outrageously impressive run. What’s for sure, Arsenal have definitely improved since 2019/20 when Sheffield United beat the Gunners 2-1 on aggregate over their two league games. This season, Arsenal have avenged themselves: they won 11-0 on aggregate.
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By Nicky Helfgott / @NickyH3lfgott on Twitter