The AFC West is arguably the best division in the NFL. It has three of the top eight teams that are favored to win the Super Bowl, and it’s loaded at quarterback with Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr. Even the sportsbooks can’t call it, with the shortest odds difference between the favorite and long-shot in division betting this season (Kansas City Chiefs at +175, Las Vegas Raiders at +650).
The Chiefs have won the division six straight seasons. They have Andy Reid as head coach and Mahomes under center, but they have lost talent this offseason. The notable departure being speedy wide receiver Tyreek Hill (to the Miami Dolphins).
Josh McDaniels, who masterminded the offense for Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, has been brought in as the new head coach at the Raiders. Vegas surprised many last year, making it to the playoffs with all of the off-field controversies throughout the campaign.
The Los Angeles Chargers missed out on the postseason after losing to the Raiders in Week 18. They have Justin Herbert coming into his third year, and a stacked offense.
Then there’s the Denver Broncos, who made the biggest move of the offseason when they pulled off the monster trade for quarterback, Russell Wilson. Could he be the final piece of the jigsaw for Denver’s talented roster with Nathaniel Hackett calling plays as their new head coach?
These four teams have to face each other twice, and they’re coming up against the NFC West this season. It’s undoubtedly the blockbuster division in football.
Here we preview each team and look at the best prop plays for the new season.
Kansas City Chiefs (+1000 to Win Super Bowl LVII)
There’s no question, Andy Reid is the best head coach in the division. There can be a debate about whether Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the star-studded AFC West, but there’s no doubting his talent. Since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018, he’s thrown for nearly 19,000 yards and 151 touchdowns.
He’s the only quarterback to host four consecutive conference championship games. Mahomes and Tom Brady are the only quarterbacks to start two Super Bowls in the last four years. The concern with KC is whether the loss of Tyreek Hill will be detrimental to their offense. Hill was the deep threat that allowed Mahomes to unlock defenses.
Where other teams in this division have gotten stronger, the loss of Hill appears to make the Chiefs’ offense weaker. How significant this could be remains to be seen. They acquired JuJu Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to help bolster their receiving corps. Smith-Schuster has had a 1,000+ yard season in his career, which came in 2018. He’s a talented catcher who could thrive with a QB as gifted as Mahomes.
The Chiefs have an excellent offensive line, featuring one of the top-ranked centers in the league in Creed Humphrey. Humphrey took to the league like a duck to water in his rookie year last season. Kansas City added depth to their defensive line in the draft, picking defensive end George Karlaftis from Purdue in the first round.
Best Chiefs Props
Travis Kelce Receiving Yards O/U 1050.5
The loss of Tyreek Hill will provide more targets for the tight end. Kelce hasn’t gone under 1,000 receiving yards since 2015. He turns 33 in October, but there are no indications to show he’s regresing. Last season he had the third-highest touchdown tally of his career (9). He’s at -112 to go over the suggested total, which seems like free money.
Chiefs Win Total O/U 10.5
The Chiefs are too good. Their head coach and quarterback are elite, their tight end is the best in the league, and they have a deep roster. Mahomes will still be smarting over that second half performance against the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC title game. This is an 11-win team, even in a division like this. Take the Over at -115.
Las Vegas Raiders (+4000 to Win Super Bowl LVII)
No team went through as much adversity as the Raiders did last season, and yet they still made the playoffs. They were led by quarterback, Derek Carr, who had the highest passing yards of his career (4,804). His leadership qualities inspired and defined the mentality of Raider Nation.
Josh McDaniels has taken over as head coach. Raiders fans will know too well poorly his last head coaching job went, in charge of the Denver Broncos. Although he did get them to the playoffs with Tim Tebow as his quarterback. McDaniels will implement more of a run game to the offense, which was so effective when he was offensive coordinator of the New England Patriots. He gave all his running backs adequate game time during the preseason, and he admitted it was to get them in game shape for the start of the new campaign.
The run game will offer an added threat for defenses, and take pressure of Derek Carr. Their offense will be much-improved with the addition of Davante Adams at wide receiver. Adams has been the best receiver in the league and, although Carr is a downgrade at quarterback from Aaron Rodgers, he’s reunited with his old college teammate. Adams, alongside wide receiver Hunter Renfrow and tight end Darren Waller, will pose a serious threat to defenses.
The only knock to the Raiders’ offense is on its offensive line, which will come up against some of the league’s fiercest defensive lines this season, as the AFC West face the NFC West.
Best Raiders Props
Win Total O/U 8.5
The Raiders will be in a lot of shootouts this season. Where they might have the offense to go toe-to-toe with the star firepower within the division, their defense could be troublesome. They gave up the ninth-most points last season, and their defensive line may struggle to get at the likes of Wilson, Herbert and Mahomes. They also have Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford and Trey Lance on their slate, which makes 9 wins appear unlikely. The Under is at -105.
Darren Waller Total TDs O/U 5.5
Waller had his breakout season in 2019, winning our hearts on Hard Knocks and going for 1,100 receiving yards. He backed that production with another 1,100+ yard campaign in 2020 and nine touchdowns. His production was down last year, but he did miss six games. Expect the tight end to find more space and targets this season, as defenses navigate Davante Adams and the Raiders’ ground attack. Head coach, Josh McDaniels, knows how to work tight ends. Back Waller’s touchdown total at -115.
Los Angeles Chargers (+1400 to Win Super Bowl LVII)
It’s time for the Chargers to deliver. For years they’ve had the roster, but have been able to match their hype. Quarterback, Justin Herbert, is entering his third year and will be expected to make the playoffs with his talent and the players around him.
Herbert has already thrown for nearly 10,000 yards and 69 touchdowns since his rookie year in 2020. Only Tom Brady threw more passing yards than Herbert’s 5,014 last season. The Chargers’ QB only turned 24 in the spring and hasn’t even reached his ceiling yet. With wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams backed up by running back Austin Ekeler, the Chargers will be legit contenders in the conference.
They’ve added Khalil Mack to their defense, trading for the outside linebacker from the Chicago Bears. Their defensive front, headed by Joey Bosa, will be a major threat to offenses this season. In the secondary they acquired cornerback J.C. Jackson, who had the second-most interceptions (8) in the league last season. The only things holding the Chargers back this season might be head coach Brandon Staley’s analytics and special teams.
Best Chargers Props
Los Angeles Chargers to Win the AFC West
The Chargers are stacked. Their head coach is another year wiser, their quarterback is among the elite passers in the league, and the talent is rich on both sides of the ball. Expect them to take care of the division this year. They’ve been a constant thorn in the side of Patrick Mahomes since he took over as starter for the Chiefs, winning three of their last four trips to Kansas City. Back them to take KC’s crown atop AFC West. The price is +240.
Justin Herbert Most Passing Yards
Tom Brady’s 5,316 passing yards were the only total to beat Herbert’s 5,014 last season. Only Brady and Matthew Stafford had more touchdown passes than the 24-year-old. In his rookie year, Herbert threw for 4,336 yards in 15 games. That was without a full preseason to help him adjust to life in the NFL. Brady is 45 this year, and already has the air of someone who knows the end is near. Herbert is surrounded by talent and still has room to improve. Plus, he’s likely to be in a few shootouts this season. At +650 he’s at great value for this play.
Denver Broncos (+1700 to Win Super Bowl LVII)
The Broncos haven’t reached the postseason since winning Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning in 2015. They’re a roster that’s loaded on defense and has weapons on the other side of the ball. Denver’s just been missing the quarterback to maximise the talent they have. Until now.
Along with new head coach, former Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, they made one of the biggest trades of the offseason when they signed Russell Wilson from the Seattle Seahawks. Wilson has consistently been one of the best QBs in the league and looks like he can be the missing piece of the puzzle for the Broncos. Or could he?
The protection he’ll get from his offensive line looks questionable, and his athleticism isn’t what it was when he made back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. He naturally gets off to fast starts in campaigns, but given his size and the altitude he’s going to be playing at, there are concerns as to whether he can maintain any kind of pace into November and December. But, he is a huge upgrade to what they had, and he does have a strong group of runners in his backfield to lean on.
The Broncos have added tackle D.J. Jones to a defense boasting Bradley Chubb and Patrick Surtain II. Jones had huge success on the interior of the dominant San Francisco 49ers defensive line last season.
Best Broncos Props
Denver Broncos Total Wins O/U 9.5
The Broncos could come out of the traps flying with Wilson as their main man. But they have a Week 8 trip to London, and concerns about his athleticism late into the season are valid. He’ll have to keep on pace with the firepower within his division, while facing familiar foes in the NFC West. Denver could make the playoffs, but 10 wins look tough. Take the Under at +115
Javonte Williams Total Rushing Yards O/U 945.5
Williams rushed for 903 yards off 203 carries in his rookie season last year. The only person stopping him from getting 1,000 yards was his teammate, Melvin Gordon. Gordon too had 203 carries and rushed for 918 yards. Expect a shared workload again this year. This shared workload could restrict Williams from achieving this total, so back the Under at -125.
