By Andrew Doherty
The disappointment was the theme of the AFC South in 2021. The Titans were disappointed in the playoffs; the Colts were disappointed by not making the playoffs. The Jaguars flashy new head coaching hire was beyond disappointing, and the Texans were, well, the Texans. The new season is a chance at redemption for each of these teams, and two of them are primed to fully take advantage.
We continue with our NFL divisional preview series with the AFC South.
Indianapolis Colts
2021 record: 9-8
2022 win total: 10
Division odds: -130
Super Bowl odds: +2500
After a disappointing 2021 season that ended by losing to the lowly Jaguars with a playoff berth on the line, Indianapolis reloaded during the off-season. The Colts went out and traded for quarterback Matt Ryan, who despite being on the back nine of his career, is the best signal caller Indianapolis has had since Andrew Luck. Although 37 year old Ryan’s passing yards in 2021 were the lowest he’s totaled in over a decade, it had more to do with his supporting cast than his age. Last season, Matty Ice finished 8th out of 40 qualifying QB’s in on target pass percentage at 73%.
The offense as a whole will benefit from the upgrade at quarterback but wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr projects to see the most significant bump. Pittman Jr broke out in 2021 posting a line of 88/1082/6 on 129 targets, averaging 12.3 YPR and 2.1 YPRR while being targeted on 25.5% of the routes that he ran. The expected increase in passing efficiency in 2022 will also benefit star running back Jonathan Taylor, who averaged 5.5 YPC and totaled 1,811 yards rushing with 18 touchdowns last season. Taylor, who will once again be running behind what is projected to be a top ten offensive line, should see lighter boxes this season.
The Colts made some significant moves on defense as well – bringing in 2019 DPOY Stephon Gilmore and pass rusher Yannick Ngakoue. These moves should improve what was already a strong unit that finished 9th in opponents points per game in 2021. Despite their 9-8 record last season, Indianapolis finished 7th in the league in point differential with a +86 mark. Typically you’d expect a team that did so well in point differential to have a better record than the Colts did last year, but their 2-5 record in one score games provides some context as to why they didn’t. Luckily for Indianapolis, they’re due for some positive regression in one scores games this year. I’m all in on the Colts winning the division in 2022.
Best bets
Colts to win the division: With the 3rd softest schedule based on opponent win totals and an improved roster on both sides of the ball, Indy is primed to dethrone the Titans for the division title.
Michael Pittman Jr over 85.5 receptions: Pittman Jr beat this mark last year (88 receptions) with subpar QB play. This year he gets an upgrade at quarterback and a projected increase in volume. This over is easy money.
Tennessee Titans
2021 record: 12-5
2022 win total: 9
Division odds: +175
Super Bowl odds: +4000
Despite winning the division for two straight years, the Titans find themselves in a position to regress in 2022. Don’t get me wrong – I’m a big believer when it comes to head coach Mike Vrabel and I think he’ll get the most of out his team this year. However, when looking at Tennessee’s roster it’s obvious their window with the current group has closed.
The selection of QB Malik Willis during this years draft shows that the front office has accepted that Ryan Tannehill isn’t the answer to their Super Bowl aspirations. Derrick Henry, who led the league in rushing attempts in 2019, 2020 and was on pace for a historic 504 touches in 2021 before injury, has showed signs of slowing down and has entered the stage of his career where the decline typically begins for running backs. He may need his workload managed in 2022. The departure of wide receiver AJ Brown makes the passing game somewhat one-dimensional without his big play ability, which will further expose the holes in Ryan Tannehill’s game. On the other side of the ball, the Titans just suffered a major blow losing pass rusher Harold Landry for the year with a torn ACL. Landry was coming off a career year in 2021, racking up 12 sacks and earning his first ever Pro Bowl selection.
Tennessee didn’t do much in the off-season to upgrade their roster, although they did the best they could to offset the loss of AJ Brown. I’m very bullish on the long term outlook for rookie Treylon Burks, but I don’t expect him to change the fortunes of the Titans offense in year one. Veteran Robert Woods is another intriguing addition, but he’s 30 years old coming off of an ACL injury. Tight end Austin Hooper is a solid signing as a one year stop gap solution, but he doesn’t move the needle for the offense.
Best bets
Under 9 wins: The Titans were unusually fortunate in close games in 2021, going 6-2 in one score games and winning by all six by three points or less. With a weakened roster and the 12th toughest schedule based on opponent win totals, I’m predicting a big regression in 2022 and taking the under.
Treylon Burks over 725.5 yards receiving: Even if he starts slow, the Titans will be force feeding Burks by mid season. He’s easily the most explosive pass catcher they have and he will benefit from big-play opportunities off play action when defenses load up the box to stop Derrick Henry. Easy over here.
Treylon Burks OROY winner: Not only will Burks have a massive opportunity in the passing game, he’s got the versatility to line up in the backfield as well. The skillset Burks possesses perfectly aligns with what the Titans offense needs. At +1800 odds, I absolutely love the value here.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2021 record: 3-14
2022 win total: 6.5
Division odds: +750
Super Bowl odds: +1300
I’m giving Trevor Lawrence a mulligan for the absolute circus he dealt with last year courtesy of former head coach Urban Meyer. After putting on a clinic of how not to run an organization, Meyer was fired and Jaguars ownership opted to bring in Doug Pederson as his replacement. With Pederson, who has a reputation as a proven QB tutor, the Jaguars are already in a much better spot than they were at this time last year.
After what was a down year even for them, the Jags were forced to overpay in free agency to add talent. On offense they added wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, along with tight end Evan Engram and an upgrade in protection at guard in Brandon Scherff. Jacksonville also has explosive pass catching running back Travis Etienne returning after missing the entire 2021 season due to a Lisfranc injury. Etienne, the 25th overall pick in the 2021 draft, played alongside Trevor Lawrence at Clemson and figures to be his security blanket in the passing game.
Ultimately Jacksonville’s level of success in 2022 is going to come down to one thing: Can Trevor Lawrence make a significant leap in year two? Lawrence, who was widely considered a generational prospect ahead of the 2021 draft, should improve drastically under Doug Pederson’s tutelage. No team in the league will benefit more from an off-season coaching change the Jaguars, and I think they’re undervalued in betting markets in 2022.
Best bets
Over 6.5 wins: This win total opened at 7.5 and I wouldn’t have bet it there, but at 6.5 there’s some value. With the 12th softest schedule based on opponent win totals and a stud quarterback looking to prove the doubters wrong, I can’t pass up the over here.
Trevor Lawrence over 22.5 passing TD’s: Lawrence is primed to bounce back this year and remind everyone why he was the number one overall pick a year ago. I think the Jags will use the short passing game with Etienne as an extension of the running game in the red zone to compensate for mediocre run blocking, which will inflate Lawrence’s TD numbers.
Houston Texans
2021 record: 4-13
2022 win total: 4.5
Division odds: +3000
Super Bowl odds: +25000
With a win total of just 4.5, the Texans are projected to lose more games than any other team in the league. While I’m not necessarily on board with that projection, I do think they’re likely to be picking in the top five in the 2023 draft. I’m not as sold on QB Davis Mills as others, and while they do have some pieces on offense, there just isn’t much about this team that inspires confidence at the moment. The Texans will almost certainly be better than they were in 2021, but with the 5th hardest schedule based on opponent win totals, it’s tough to have faith in them winning many games.
With the Texans, it’s all about building for the future right now. Houston’s 2022 rookie class looks promising, and they drafted what projects to be several starters for years to come. The defense should improve after drafting Derek Stingley Jr, Jalen Pitre, and Christian Harris, but three rookies aren’t enough to truly elevate the unit as a whole by themselves. Rookie running back Dameon Pierce has been impressive throughout the pre-season, and first-round guard Kenyon Green appears to be a hit as well.
Best bet: Avoiding betting anything season-long on the Texans altogether is your best bet. With such a wide range of outcomes for this team, I’m staying away from them for now.
