By Andrew Doherty
Read our latest NFL coverage and follow along with the latest stats, trends and predictions!
Cincinnati Bengals
2021 record: 10-7
2022 win total: 10
Division odds: +170
Super Bowl odds: +2200
It’s a well-documented fact that teams who lose the Super Bowl typically experience significant regression the following year. Call it a “Super Bowl hangover” or whatever you’d like, I’m here to tell you that it’s not going to happen to Cincinnati in 2022.
Why will the Bengals not regress in a spot where so many other teams have? The biggest reason is that they’ve done something most of the others failed to do: retain the majority of the roster that reached the Super Bowl. In fact, they didn’t just retain their roster, they upgraded it in an impressive fashion by investing heavily in their biggest area of weakness: the offensive line.
Star quarterback Joe Burrow is also now a full season removed from the ACL injury that ended his rookie campaign. He’s an ascending player that is likely to be even better in 2022, as are his two favorite targets Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. The Bengals defense that really hit its stride down the stretch last year introduced another dynamic playmaker into the fold when the team selected versatile defensive back Daxton Hill in the first round of the NFL draft. The arrow is pointed all the way up for the Bengals in 2022.
Best bets
Over 10 wins: Typically I’d wait to see if the win total dips to 9.5 and then hammer it, but at even money I’m comfortable betting this at 10.
Bengals to win the division: At +170, these odds are simply too good to pass up for a team that should win double digit games in 2022.
Baltimore Ravens
2021 record: 8-9
2022 win total: 9.5
Division odds: +140
Super Bowl odds: +2000
The 2021 Ravens season was doomed from the start after losing multiple key players to season-ending injuries before the end of August. Finally healthy in 2022, the Ravens are ready to challenge the Bengals for AFC North supremacy. Despite being favorites to win the division, there isn’t a ton of value at the current odds.
The Ravens have gone over 9.5 wins in 3 of 4 seasons since drafting Lamar Jackson, with last year’s injury-plagued season being the lone exception. Baltimore still found a way to win 8 games last season despite being the most injury-ravaged team in the league, including a 5 game stretch without Lamar Jackson. There’s been plenty of talk about the lack of weapons in the passing game behind star tight end Mark Andrews and popular breakout candidate Rashod Bateman, but the Ravens uber efficient rushing attack is enough to offset the lack of pass-catching depth. On defense, the Ravens project to have one of the better units in the league if they’re able to stay healthy.
Best bets
Over 9.5 wins: With the Ravens fully healthy and their strength of schedule ranking 11th easiest in the league, I’m all in on over 9.5 wins for 2022.
Rashod Bateman over 850.5 receiving yards: Bateman started his rookie year on IR but still beat man, zone, and press coverage at a very high rate upon returning. Even if he doesn’t improve upon his modest 7.6 YPT rate from 2021, the increased volume alone will hit the over.
Cleveland Browns
2021 record: 8-9
2022 win total: 8.5
Division odds: +380
Super Bowl odds: +4000
With quarterback Deshaun Watson suspended for the first 11 games of the 2022 season, the Browns may as well be punting away their Super Bowl aspirations until 2023. Starting in Watson’s place will in all likelihood be Jacoby Brissett, whose 61% completion rate and subpar 6.2 YPA over the past 3 seasons doesn’t inspire much confidence. Even when Watson does make his debut in Cleveland, there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to turn things around for the Browns. I’m bearish on Watson’s outlook when he returns for two reasons: He’s not allowed to practice with the team until October 10 and he’ll be returning to game action after nearly two years without playing a single live snap.
Best bet
Under 8.5 wins: Cleveland’s QB turmoil speaks for itself. The Browns do have some playmakers though, and overall their roster is solid. In a tough AFC North, however, solid isn’t going to be enough.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2021 record: 9-7-1
2022 win total: 7.5
Division odds: +1000
Super Bowl odds: +9000
With middling veteran QB Mitch Trubisky currently atop the depth chart but a first-round rookie nipping at his heels, the Steelers have a high likelihood of an in-season quarterback change. Regardless of who is under center in Pittsburgh, they’ll be playing behind an offensive line that ranked bottom five in the league the last two years and doesn’t project to be much better in 2022. It’s not all bad on offense though, as the Steelers skill positions are absolutely loaded. There’s plenty of talent on the other side of the ball, too.
The biggest cause for concern in Pittsburgh behind their quarterback situation and bottom-ranked OL is how well they fared in one-score games in 2021. It may seem counterintuitive but after going 8-2-1 in one-score games last year, the Steelers are very likely to experience a regression to the mean in close games in 2022. Simply put, history tells us that what they did last season isn’t sustainable in the long term. Just one of Pittsburgh’s nine wins in 2021 was by 8 or more points.
Best bet
Under 7.5 wins: There’s a first time for everything. Despite head coach Mike Tomlin never finishing with a record below .500 in 15 straight seasons, that streak is likely to come to an end in 2022.
