By Scott Kacsmar
The days of the AFC East being the New England Patriots and The Three Stooges are over. The Buffalo Bills are the Super Bowl favorites and even the Miami Dolphins have playoff aspirations in 2022. Leave it to the New York Jets to keep the cellar light on, but this could be one of the deepest divisions in the NFL this year.
Buffalo Bills
- 2021 records: 11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 11.5 wins
- Odds to win the AFC East: -230
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +600 (No. 1 at FanDuel)
The Bills were 13 seconds away from hosting the AFC Championship Game last season. But some bad decisions led to an overtime loss in Kansas City, the second year in a row the Bills came up short in that building.
But the Bills did win a game 38-20 in Kansas City during the season, continued to dominate Bill Belichick’s New England defense, and they had one of the best defenses, which will welcome back corner Tre’Davious White after a torn ACL on Thanksgiving.
While Josh Allen did not have the regular season follow-up to 2020 that he wanted, his 2021 postseason was off the charts with 12 touchdown drives on 16 possessions. The Bills are bringing back most of their key players while adding Von Miller to the pass rush, fresh off a second ring with the Rams.
The Bills are seeking their fifth playoff appearance in six seasons under head coach Sean McDermott. While the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the Giants is noteworthy, this team has the talent to continue winning and should even be better than last year’s 11-6 record. The Bills were a league-worst 1-5 in close games (1-6 counting playoffs), so plan on some positive regression there.
Best bets for Buffalo
Bills win AFC East (-225 at BetMGM): This team should compete for the No. 1 seed and best record in the league.
Gabriel Davis Over 850.5 receiving yards (-112 at FanDuel): Look for the new No. 2 receiver to build off his monster four-touchdown catch playoff game in Kansas City and have a career year after the Bills moved on from Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders.
Bills win Super Bowl 57 (+600 at FanDuel): Always bold to pick a team that is 0-for-56 at winning one of these, but the Bills have the right mix of talent on both sides of the ball, a reliable track record of recent success, and they no longer have to worry about Tyreek Hill torching them at Arrowhead in January. This should be Buffalo’s year.
Miami Dolphins
- 2021 records: 9-8 SU, 9-7-1 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 8.5 wins
- Odds to win the AFC East: +450
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +4000 (Tied-No. 17 at FanDuel)
The Dolphins started and ended their 2021 season with wins over the Patriots, a sweep they had not done since the 2000 season. But in between, the Dolphins lost seven games in a row before winning the next seven after the defense showed up.
The losing streak really doomed the team’s playoff chances, and combined with the lack of development in quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s second season, the Dolphins parted ways with head coach Brian Flores after two seasons.
Enter Mike McDaniel from San Francisco. He has followed Kyle Shanahan for years and will be able to implement a much better offensive system after the Dolphins have failed to create any separation the last two years. It will also help to pair speedster Tyreek Hill with Jaylen Waddle. If Tua is going to be a franchise quarterback in this league, then it has to start this year.
Best bets for Miami
Over 8.5 wins (-130 at BetMGM): If Flores could get this team to 10 and nine wins the last two seasons, then I believe strongly in McDaniel and a better roster to do it this season. McDaniel is also a great bet for Coach of the Year since he will largely get the credit for bringing this system to Miami and making it work out for Tua. Someone like Kevin O’Connell in Minnesota will just be noted as winning with established offensive players. McDaniel could be the instant success people hoped Brandon Staley was going to be in Los Angeles last year before he missed the playoffs at 9-8.
Jaylen Waddle Over 5.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-112 at FanDuel): There will be bombs to Hill this year, but Weddle already led the team in touchdown catches last year with six, all of which came within 10 yards of the end zone. Look for the Dolphins to use him in a variety of ways this year and easily clear this number.
New England Patriots
- 2021 records: 10-7 SU, 10-7 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 8.5 wins
- Odds to win the AFC East: +500
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +4000 (Tied-No. 17 at FanDuel)
The Patriots certainly took their fans for a rollercoaster ride in 2021. Even at 2-4, you could see the start of something with the team losing close games to the Cowboys and Buccaneers at home. Mac Jones even tied Tom Brady’s consecutive completions record in the game against Tampa, and Jones led two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter against Dallas before losing in overtime.
Jones had the best rookie season of all the quarterbacks last year, but it was also the supporting cast (defense, running game, special teams) that really dominated during the seven-game winning streak. The Patriots even won four straight games by at least 18 points at one point, tying the 2021 Bills as the only two teams to do that in the NFL since 2018.
But once we started thinking the Patriots could steal another No. 1 seed, things went south. They lost in Indianapolis for the first time since 2009, and the Bills showed that without extreme wind conditions, they could shred this defense without even having to punt.
When the teams met again in the wild card round, the Bills scored a touchdown on all seven possessions in a 47-17 rout. It is quite arguably the best offensive performance in NFL history, and it came in snow and single-digit temperatures. Invest in a wind machine, Bill.
But instead of breaking the bank on any big players, the Patriots are moving on with wide receiver DeVante Parker and lost corner J.C. Jackson to the Chargers. The biggest loss might be long-time offensive coordinator and Belichick confidant Josh McDaniels, who is the new head coach of the Raiders. Bringing back Joe Judge to share duties with Matt Patricia is not encouraging as Belichick begins his age-70 season.
Best bets for New England
Patriots to miss the playoffs (-198 at FanDuel): I think the Patriots ultimately settle around a 9-8 finish this year, taking a step back without McDaniels and looking more ordinary in a stacked AFC. The Bills, Dolphins, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos are all higher in my projections, leaving the Patriots out of the playoffs in January.
New York Jets
- 2021 records: 4-13 SU, 6-11 ATS
- 2022 regular season wins: over/under 5.5 wins
- Odds to win the AFC East: +2000
- Odds to win the Super Bowl: +15000 (Tied-No. 29 at FanDuel)
Believe it or not, but the Jets can set a franchise record if they miss the playoffs for a 12th year in a row this season. It is going to be hard to avoid in a deep division and deeper conference.
The Jets can get a little pass for last year’s 4-13 season under a rookie head coach (Robert Saleh) and rookie quarterback (Zach Wilson), but neither gave many signs of encouragement. Saleh is a defensive guru, but his unit was one of the worst in the league last year.
It has to be concerning that the highlight of the season and the best the offense looked was in a game with one-game wonder Mike White at quarterback against the Bengals. White threw for over 400 yards while Wilson never had a 300-yard game last year.
Wilson is already injured to start this year after coming up hobbled in a preseason game. It looks like Joe Flacco may start the opener. The Jets made three draft picks in the first round, but given this team’s history in the draft, you are naturally skeptical about them working out, especially in 2022.
The Jets also had another serious injury to left tackle Mekhi Becton, who will miss the entire season. Wilson had a lot of flaws with accuracy last year, and that will be the main thing to track with his second season to see if he is improving.
Best bets for New York
Jets finish last in AFC East (-250 at FanDuel): I have so much confidence in the other three teams and so little in the Jets that this should be close to a mortal lock this season. Even if the Jets avoid going 0-6 in division games for the third year in a row, there should be a multiple-game cushion between them and the third-place team in the AFC East.
