It’s Not Over Until It’s Over
It’s not over until it’s over. That’s what both sides of the Derby della Madonnina will be saying. Tonight’s second-leg semi-final clash sees the Champions League return to the San Siro for another enthralling edition of the Milan derby. Whilst most of Inter Milan’s work was completed in the first leg of this knockout tie, AC Milan will definitely not go down without a fight. After all, there have been much bigger turnarounds in recent UCL knockout history.
Despite not receiving the nail-biting clash the world was hoping for, football aficionados would be foolish to stray away from this semi-final second leg. Stefano Pioli and Simone Inzaghi will galvanize their sides with different tactics but a shared goal this Tuesday; to secure a UEFA Champions League final spot in Istanbul.
WHAT HAPPENED IN THE FIRST LEG? ~ 2-0 Inter Milan
Whilst most were expecting an end-to-end and tightly contested bout between the Milan sides last week, Inzaghi and Inter had other plans coming. The first half was complete domination and destruction by the Nezzazuri. A blitzing first 11 minutes saw Armenian Mkhitaryan and Bosnia’s Dzeko each score with Inter’s first two shots of the game. Funnily enough, the veterans became the first 34+-year-old duo in UCL history to score in a Champions League semi-final.
The relentless dismantling didn’t stop there. 5 minutes later, midfielder Calhanoglu nearly scored an absolute belter as his 0.01 xG chance hit the post. Luckily for the Rossoneri, this strike didn’t go in because it would have all but put this tie to bed.
Inter Milan’s first half was as good as coach Inzaghi could have ultimately asked for. Offensively, the Nezzazuri waltzed past AC Milan with ease due to Milan’s rather open and vulnerable defensive shape. Inter amassed 11 shots in the first half which highlights AC Milan’s fragility. Likewise, the Nezzazuri’s midfield trio of Barella, Mkhitaryan and Calhanoglu were excellent in outrunning AC Milan’s midfield who seemed far off it. Inter’s defence was something to write home about too, with the Nezzzuri limiting their Milan neighbors to 0 shots on target in the match.
Overall, AC Milan seemed disillusioned and dejected on the night as they failed to apply any pressure on Inter’s goal. Generating just 1 big chance and forcing Inter’s keeper Onana to make just 2 saves, Pioli will need to generate more attacking verve from his side if they wish to come back from the 2-0 deficit.
Ultimately though, it is not all negative for the Rossoneri. A 2-0 deficit is not impossible to overturn, and given it could have been 3 or 4, AC Milan have slightly gotten away with their terrible performance. Also, the absence of Rafa Leao was felt throughout the whole 90 minutes. Whilst Pioli does not want to rely on his Portuguese winger, Leao’s probable appearance in the second leg will create some hope for fans of the Rossoneri.
TEAM NEWS – AC MILAN
Continuing their run of bad form, AC Milan were defeated 2-0 by relegation candidates Spezia in a shock result. Despite shooting 14 times, the Rossoneri only generated 1 big chance and have gone goalless for 2 consecutive games for the first time since January.
Pioli made 4 changes to his starting lineup from mid-week, but 3 of them were due to injury. Messias, Bennacer and Krunic – who all featured in the first leg against Inter – are all sidelined due to injury and are in serious doubt for tonight. AC Milan also substituted the likes of Hernandez, Tomori, Diaz and Saelemaekers off the field in their defeat this weekend. Pioli’s decision-making must have been to rest his stars before the second leg, however, given AC Milan’s league position this may have not been so wise.
AC Milan currently sit in 5th position in Serie A. The loss against Spezia pushed them 4 points behind UCL qualification for next season with just 3 games remaining. Perhaps Pioli is putting all his eggs in one basket (the Champions League) by not playing all his best players until the final whistle in domestic matches. While this could look like a genius decision if AC Milan pull off a comeback against their Milan rivals, failing to advance to the UCL final could and their decreasing league position could cost the Rossoneri UCL Qualification for next season.
Milan fans outside the Milanello cheered the players on and the Rossoneri players thanked them for their efforts
— Get Italian Football News (@_GIFN) May 14, 2023
(Via @AntoVitiello)pic.twitter.com/vtvnRLR6Wb
The biggest question on the minds of AC Milan fans Is Rafa Leao. The reigning Serie A Player of the Season missed the first leg after being subbed off against Lazio due to injury. Currently, the Portuguese winger’s fitness is in slight doubt but you have to question if it is worth it playing him even if he is 75% fit. Pioli did say prior to the last game that he would either start or not be available, but the Rossoneri’s situation has become do or die. Leao’s presence in the AC Milan lineup has been crucial and their form without him is mid-table at best. AC Milan have lost all 3 games he hasn’t played this season and will be hoping that he will be available.
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TEAM NEWS – INTER MILAN
Growing more and more in confidence, Inter Milan have chosen the best part of the season to play their best football. With a 4-2 win against Sassuolo, the Nezzazuri extended their winning streak to 7 consecutive games. In form Belgian striker Romelu Lukaku has seemingly found his feet again. Finally returning to form at the exact right time for Inter, Lukaku’s double against Sassuolo means he now has 8 goal contributions in his last 4 starts.
ONE MOMENT 🖤💙#ForzaInter #InterMilan #UCL pic.twitter.com/MG8rXAgB4o
— Inter (@Inter_en) May 16, 2023
Inter have also edged closer to securing UCL football for a 5th consecutive season. The Nezzaazuri are in 3rd place and sit 5 points above AC Milan with 3 games left.
Against Sassuolo, Inzaghi had the luxury of making 8 changes to his starting lineup. The likes of Onana, Dumfries, Calhanoglu, Barella and Dzeko did not make an appearance and will be completely rested for tonight. No new players require the physio room either, as Milan Skriniar remains their only sidelined squad player.
A largely unchanged lineup could be expected for Inter who will be hoping for a potentially historic treble-winning season. Given they’ve won the Supercoppa, are in the Coppa Italia final and seem to be all but ready for a UCL final appearance, Inzaghi and his men will be eager to create a campaign to remember this year in the Champions League.
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ODDS
Full-Time Result:
Inter Milan – 2.05
Draw – 3.30
AC Milan – 3.90
Goals Over / Under 2.5:
Under – 1.72
Over – 2.10
To Qualify:
Inter – 1.04
AC Milan – 13.00
PREDICTED LINEUPS
AC Milan
Maignan, Calabria, Kjaer, Tomori, Hernandez, Pobega, Tonali, Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao, Giroud
Inter
Onana, Darmian, Acerbi, Bastoni, Dumfries, barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco, Dzeko, Martinez
Prediction: 2-1 Inter
Despite suspecting the return of superstar winger Rafael Leao, we think that the mountain is too high to climb for AC Milan. Not only are they low on confidence, but the Rossoneri would have to score at least 2 goals against Inter to advance to the final. In their last 15 games, Inter have conceded 2 goals only twice. Inter’s sky-high confidence and team cohesion will be too much for a make-shift AC Milan who will unfortunately be knocked out of the UEFA Champions League this Tuesday.
By Gilad Nagar
