Soccer

76ers-Heat: How Joel Embiid broke Miami in return and changed series projection

Two things that can’t be questioned are Joel Embiid’s toughness and his desire to win. Less than 24 hours after clearing the NBA‘s concussion protocol and wearing a protective mask to shield the broken orbital bone that he suffered in the first round against the Toronto Raptors, Embiid was out on the floor for Game 3 against the Miami Heat, trying to help his team get a much-needed win after they dropped the first two games in the series without him. 

As if being fresh off of a concussion and operating with a broken face wasn’t enough, the MVP finalist is also still playing with a torn ligament in his thumb that will require surgery after the season. Such a laundry list of injury issues would keep a lot of players in street clothes on the sideline, but Embiid was out on the court, giving it his all, and his presence proved pivotal. With the big man in the lineup, the 76ers were able to pull out a 99-79 victory, their first of the series, which now sits at 2-2. The overall outlook has been altered as Embiid has led a two-game win streak. 

Statistically, Embiid didn’t have his best game — although an 18-point, 11-rebound performance being underwhelming is a testament to just how dominant Embiid typically is — but his sheer presence out on the floor made all the difference for Philadelphia, on both ends. 

Offensively, Embiid commanded a ton of attention from Miami, as he always does, and the fact that the Sixers shot nearly 50 percent from long range (16 of 33) is a direct result of that attention. With Miami focusing heavily on Embiid, Sixers shooters, like Danny Green (seven of nine from long range) and Tyrese Maxey (five of six), were afforded more space to work with. It’s not a coincidence that Philadelphia made more 3s in Game 3 than in Games 1 and 2 combined (14). Embiid himself shot just five of 12 from the floor, but he got to the foul line and converted eight of his 10 attempts. 

As expected, the 76ers’ offense is blitzing opponents every time Embiid is on the floor. In 10 games, the 76ers top four scoring lineups over 60 minutes played feature Embiid. On average, the 76ers’ best four-man lineups with Embiid have an offensive rating of 118 and a defensive rating of 99.85. Miami has several lineups with a high net rating but it’s hard to give them credit when all but one of their games was against a lesser team or Philadelphia without Embiid.

He was even more devastating on the other end. Just by being on the floor, Embiid provides Philadelphia with a level of rim protection that his backups, such as Paul Reed and De’Andre Jordan, simply can’t. There were countless times throughout the game that Embiid’s looming presence in the paint stifled perimeter penetration by forcing the driver to reconsider their action, and kick the ball out or settle for a tougher shot instead of driving to the rim. 

Bam Adebayo’s individual production was also limited in a big way by Embiid’s return in Game 3. Adebayo largely had his way against Philadelphia’s interior defense in the opening two games of the series. In Game 1 he had 24 points, 12 rebounds and four assists. In the second game he posted a similar stat line: 23 points, nine rebounds and three assists. He missed a total of six shots over those two games. 

On Friday night, Adebayo was held to just nine points, three rebounds and one assist. He missed seven of his nine shot attempts. You could call that the “Embiid effect.” After the game, Embiid admitted that watching Adebayo find success against the Sixers in the first two games bothered him, so slowing the Heat center down was clearly his tactical priority. 

Embiid’s presence can be felt everywhere defensively. The Sixers have had a 102.7 defensive rating with him on the floor through his first two games against the Heat. To put that into perspective compared to what the Sixers were dealing with before Embiid came back, they had a defensive rating of 151.7 with Jordan on the floor through Games 1 and 2.

Embiid has also helped contain Adebayo, who came out aggressive against Philly’s weakened defense in the first two games to average 23.5 points on 71.4 percent shooting. Adebayo had another efficient outing in Game 4 with 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting, but only shot 2-of-9 in Game 3 and has struggled to have much of his success when guarded by Embiid. The Sixers’ center has the right mix of quickness, discipline, strength and extra size to hold off Adebayo on drives and bother attempts in the paint.

Miami will now have to go back to the drawing board, because they don’t have a clear solution when it comes to slowing Embiid, who will likely continue to round back into form after missing over a week of basketball activity. 

For Philadelphia, Embiid’s return came just in time. Plenty of teams have come back from an 0-2 deficit in a series. No team has ever come back from 0-3, and the first two games provided little evidence that the Sixers would have been able to win a game against the Heat without Embiid. 

Now following his return, the series sits at a dangerous 2-2 tie, but feels drastically different than it did just a few days ago. Kyle Lowry is out for Game 5, and Embiid has extra motivation to continue wrecking Miami after losing out on the MVP for the second-consecutive year. 

Our Game 5 pick: 76ers +3

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