By Scott Kacsmar
If you told someone at any point this season that the NFL playoffs would advance to the divisional round without a single team from the NFC East, they would probably never believe it. Add the Detroit Lions and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to the mix, and things are getting a bit wild in the NFC bracket right now.
Jordan Love is also getting praised as the new Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay after doing a very Rodgers-like thing by shredding the Cowboys in Dallas in the biggest upset in the wild card round. But will he follow in Rodgers’ footsteps and lose a playoff game to the 49ers, who have Matt LaFleur’s number over the years?
Love has been red hot for Green Bay, but let’s not forget that Brock Purdy and the 49ers have been the standard for offensive greatness for much of this season. The 49ers seek their third-straight appearance in the NFC Championship Game, and they are still the odds-on favorite (+175 at FanDuel) to win Super Bowl 58.
The NFC divisional round features the chalk (49ers) vs. the comedy as there would be nothing more amusing than seeing Baker Mayfield or Jordan Love lead their teams to the Super Bowl after one-upping Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Jared Goff taking the Detroit Lions of all teams to their first Super Bowl would also be legendary stuff, but the pressure is clearly on the 49ers to deliver the most out of this group.
But we saw what that pressure did to Dallas against Green Bay last week, producing the first upset of a No. 2 seed by a No. 7 seed in the new format. Can these 2023 Packers do the unthinkable and knock off a No. 1 seed in another history-making upset?
We have in-depth previews with all the stats, injury notes, matchups, betting advice, and predictions you need for both NFC games below. Click here for the AFC preview.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5, O/U 50.5)
The No. 7 Green Bay Packers (10-8) will take on the No. 1 San Francisco 49ers (13-4) this Saturday night in San Francisco. Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have already knocked out Matt LaFleur’s Packers in the 2019 NFC Championship Game and again when Green Bay was the No. 1 seed in the 2021 NFC divisional round, the last time these teams met.
In the first-ever matchup between a No. 7 and No. 1 seed, this would be some sweet revenge for LaFleur and the Packers.
The Last Matchup
2021 NFC Divisional Round: 49ers 13, Packers 10
It is going on a full two years since these teams met, and there is not a whole lot to take away that would be actionable for this Saturday from that 13-10 upset by the 49ers played in wintry Green Bay at Lambeau Field. A blocked punt return by the 49ers tied that game at 10 late before Deebo Samuel powered the offense on a game-winning field goal with no time left. Green Bay’s special teams were a disaster that night.
Both teams moved on from their quarterback that night as Jimmy Garoppolo went to the Raiders and Aaron Rodgers was traded to the Jets. There are no regrets either with the way Jordan Love and Brock Purdy have played this year, their first full seasons as starters. Purdy and Love became the 27th and 28th quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for over 4,000 yards and 30 touchdown passes in a playoff season. It is hard to make that list without being a legitimate franchise quarterback.
Injury Watch
The 49ers rested key starters in Week 18 and had a bye week to get even more healthy. That should be great news for Christian McCaffrey’s calf, which the running back injured against the Commanders in Week 17. The 49ers also could get defensive lineman Arik Armstead back in time for this playoff run. The 2015 first-round pick has not played since the blowout win in Philadelphia to start December.
The Packers have some more alarming injuries with corner Jaire Alexander leaving Sunday’s win in Dallas early with an ankle injury. He was a question mark to play at all, and his interception early in the game was a key play to swing the game in his team’s favor. The 49ers are loaded with weapons, so that could be a big blow to the Packers if Alexander can’t make it back in time for Saturday night.
Running back Aaron Jones is also a little banged up, which gets a bit concerning when A.J. Dillon has already been sidelined with an injury. The Packers could be thin at running back too, but at least they got injury-prone wide receiver Christian Watson on the field for meaningful snaps in Dallas.
Stats to Know
Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup (stats are for the 2023 season unless noted otherwise):
- The 2023 49ers won 11 games by at least 12 points, tied for the second-most games in a season in NFL history (1999 Rams had 13).
- The 2023 49ers have scored at least 27 points in all 12 wins and fewer than 21 points in all 5 losses.
- Including sacks, the 2023 49ers averaged 8.35 yards per pass play, the highest of any offense since the 2004 Colts (8.54).
- Despite their otherwise gaudy defensive statistics, the 49ers are No. 24 on third down (40.9%) and No. 16 in the red zone at allowing touchdowns (54.5%).
- Since Week 10, the Packers (52.2%) are the only offense converting over 50% of the time on third down.
- For the entire season (playoffs included), Green Bay is No. 3 on third down (47.6%), just ahead of the No. 4 49ers (47.5%).
- The 49ers have rushed for at least 100 yards in every game but the 22-17 loss in Minnesota (65 rushing yards).
- The Packers are still a respectable 5-5 when allowing over 120 rushing yards.
- The 49ers are only 5-5 when they allow at least 18 first downs to an opposing offense (7-0 when allowing under 18 first downs).
- The Packers have had at least 18 first downs in 7 straight games, including 3 straight games with over 400 yards of offense (had no such games in Weeks 1-16).
- Eight of Green Bay’s top 11 games in offensive EPA are on the road this year.
- Green Bay’s top 5 games in points scored have all been on the road, including a season-high 48 points in Dallas last week.
- Packers go as Love goes: 9-0 when his yards per attempt are above 7.4 and 1-8 when he is below 7.4.
- Love has 1 interception in his last 9 games.
- Since 2022, the 49ers are 1-8 when turning the ball over at least twice (Green Bay is 5-8).
Fitting the Narrative
What is a storyline to follow for these teams this postseason and in this matchup in particular?
49ers – Handling Adversity
It may not happen this week, but at some point this postseason, the 49ers should face some adversity in a tight game. No one has really blown their way through a Super Bowl run since the 2002 Buccaneers, so things inevitably are going to get tight when you are playing the best teams in the league in the biggest games of the season.
How does San Francisco handle that? We’ll see because the 49ers played a league-low 5 close games this year and they were 1-4 in them. They were also 0-4 at game-winning drive opportunities. This might not be a big deal if we didn’t have years of questioning Shanahan and San Francisco in these moments.
After all, Shanahan is the coach who blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl 54 to Kansas City. He blew a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of the 2021 NFC Championship Game against the Rams. He’s also the offensive coordinator who had a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl 51 with Atlanta and just had to get that over the finish line against New England, but he royally botched that one too.
Despite his reputation, Jimmy Garoppolo was respectable at pulling out clutch drives for the 49ers. He is actually 14-13 (.519) in those moments, the best record among active starters (min. 12 games). But he is best remembered for not coming through in those aforementioned playoff losses.
So far, Brock Purdy is 2-3 at game-winning drives, an area he’s rarely been tested with how dominant the 49ers usually are. He would be 3-2 if his rookie kicker (Jake Moody) delivered a 41-yard field goal in Cleveland this year. But was that just a one-off situation, or is Moody going to be a problem in those spots going forward? We don’t know because we rarely see the 49ers get pushed like that.
But physical defenses (Browns and Ravens) did push them around this year. They also struggled at home against Cincinnati, a game where Purdy had turnover issues, and they were upset in a variety of ways in Minnesota.
The 49ers know they are so talented on both sides of the ball, and they expect to win games by big margins as they have all year. But not everything always goes according to plan, especially in the playoffs. No one could have imagined Purdy’s elbow would get destroyed a drive into last year’s NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia. Are they better prepared this year with Sam Darnold as the backup? Yes, but they best just hope it doesn’t come to that again.
But until the 49ers get over the finish line, they are going to have the labels of a front-runner and always being the bridesmaid. If they rip through a dominant postseason, then so be it. They’ll go down in history as an all-time great team. But chances are they will have to face that moment of adversity after some turnovers trip them up, or maybe it’s a bad call by the refs or an injury to one of the star players during a game.
We’ll see how they handle it this time. Dallas was already a similar team in profile with the near-record number of 20-point wins and the dominant home winning streak and statistics. That didn’t phase the Packers, the lowly No. 7 seed that just snuck into the tournament. They shocked them early by taking the ball and marching right down the field for a touchdown, getting an interception deep in Dallas territory, and then a pick-six to make it 27-0. That snowballed quickly on Dallas.
You can say the 49ers aren’t the Cowboys, but neither team has added to its trophy case since the mid-1990s. It would be a real disappointment if the 49ers, who have been in 6 of the last 12 NFC Championship Games, come out of this stretch without a single Super Bowl win.
With Dallas out of the way and the odds in their favor to close the deal, this needs to be the year they get it done. Look at the Eagles. The NFC loves a good flash-in-the-pan. These windows don’t stay open for long.
Packers – Best Way to Win This Game?
While the individual matchups are different this week, facing Dallas was great preparation for what Green Bay is facing this week as it tries to pull off another road upset.
Like the 49ers, the Cowboys have a special offense led by a quarterback having a career year that can score with big plays in the passing game. The defense also had a strong pass rush and ability to create and score on turnovers.
Now you can argue the 49ers have a better roster with a better coaching staff, but that’s why they are the No. 1 seed and the spread is 9.5 instead of 7.5 like last week. But that doesn’t mean the Packers can’t take some of the same approach to this matchup.
If LaFleur has a chance to go on offense first, he should take it like he did last week in Dallas. This is the optimal strategy against front-running teams like the Cowboys and 49ers. You want to get up on them early and build that pressure as they are not used to playing from behind. Don’t let them dictate the tempo of the game. The Packers did a wonderful job of this last week in Dallas, and the Love-led offense has been at its best in the last 3 weeks of the season.
But you don’t want to make this a shootout. In fact, it’s hard to even get into a shootout with the 49ers since the defense is usually too good to allow that. But you need to score early and hope they start turning the ball over and fold like Purdy did against Baltimore after those interceptions kept piling up.
But make no mistake about it, Joe Barry’s defense is going to have to play its game of the year. The 49ers are 23-0 since 2022 when scoring at least 24 points, so the Packers need to keep them under that by getting those turnovers and some breaks like dropped passes, holding penalties, or missed field goals.
In a weird way, Barry’s defense has stepped up and delivered against some of the better competition on the schedule this year for Green Bay.
- They sacked Patrick Mahomes multiple times on third down and in the red zone to keep the Chiefs under 20 points.
- They forced Jared Goff to lose 3 fumbles on Thanksgiving, and they kept stopping the Lions on fourth down in a 29-22 win.
- They held Dak Prescott to 0 passing yards in the first quarter for the first time in his career, then got those two huge interceptions early before the Cowboys filled up the stat sheet after trailing 27-0 and 48-16. That works.
Sure, the flipside is that Green Bay’s been embarrassed by the likes of Tommy DeVito (Giants) and Bryce Young (Panthers), even giving up 30 points and 300 yards to the latter for a Carolina offense that didn’t score another point the last two games of the season.
But you know what other defense sucked in the regular season against random quarterbacks and stepped up in the playoffs against some of the best to ever do it? The 2007 Giants. They won rematches against Tony Romo (Cowboys), and Brett Favre (Packers), and then took down Tom Brady and the 18-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.
I’m not saying the 2023 Packers are the 2007 Giants because it’s hard to locate a Michael Strahan up front for them, but there is a precedent of defense being able to turn things around for the playoffs. We’ve already seen the offense make a remarkable turnaround for this young Green Bay team this year. Now they just need a little more of this defensive magic to slow the 49ers down and make this a winnable game.
Best Bets and Prediction
The Packers won as a 7.5-point road underdog in Dallas last week, and now they are trying to win as a 9.5-point road underdog in San Francisco this week. Has any team ever done that before in the playoffs? Something similar has happened four times in history:
- 1996 Jaguars: Won 30-27 in Buffalo (+8.5) in wild card round, won 30-27 in Denver (+12.5) in divisional round, lost 20-6 in New England (+7.5) in AFC Championship Game.
- 2001 Patriots: Won 24-17 in Pittsburgh (+10) in AFC Championship Game, won 20-17 vs. St. Louis (+14) in Super Bowl 36.
- 2007 Giants: Won 21-17 in Dallas (+7) in divisional round, won 23-20 in Green Bay (+7.5) in NFC Championship Game, won 17-14 vs. New England (+12.5) in Super Bowl 42
- 2012 Ravens: Won 38-35 in Denver (+9) in divisional round, won 28-13 in New England (+7.5) in AFC Championship Game, won 34-31 vs. San Francisco (+4.5) in Super Bowl 47.
I can point out several huge breaks those teams got along the way, but no one said this was easy, and it wouldn’t be possible if you don’t get those breaks in the playoffs. All we know is it is doable.
But I would still pick the 49ers to win this week. They have an offense that is better than Dallas at scheming great players wide-open whereas Dallas relied more on CeeDee Lamb being a dominant receiver this year. The YAC the 49ers generate is otherworldly, and their defense is more trustworthy than Dallas as well.
But the Packers have a puncher’s chance if they bring the same mindset they had last week and can force Purdy into some turnovers. Love will have to be on the mark early though as you don’t want to try coming from behind double digits in this game.
The over would also be my favorite pick as I think the 49ers can get to over 30 and the Packers will still be respectable with over 21 points. It has the chance to be a special game though if Love and the Packers can challenge this No. 1 seed that was embarrassed by Baltimore, played a lowly Washington team, then took a few weeks off. The Packers have been hot and in playoff mode for weeks. That’s always an interesting dynamic to watch in these games too, and as I’ve said, the hot start is exactly what the Packers need in this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6.5, O/U 48.5)
The No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-8) will take on the No. 3 Detroit Lions (13-5) this Sunday afternoon in Detroit. That’s right, the Lions go from not hosting a playoff game since 1993 to hosting a second one this month after finally winning a playoff game for the first time in 32 years.
Having a No. 3 seed host a No. 4 seed in the divisional round is also a first for this playoff format. Thank Jerry Jones and the Cowboys losing for bringing us all these firsts in the NFC bracket.
The Last Matchup
Week 6: Lions 20, Buccaneers 6
This was an odd game as it could be an outlier for both teams this season. The Buccaneers scored a season-low 6 points, and the Lions had a season-low 40 rushing yards thanks to an early injury to David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs was inactive.
Tampa does have a solid run defense led by Vita Vea, and Detroit has not cracked 80 rushing yards in either of the last two weeks. So, it is possible this is not a big running game for Detroit even with Montgomery and Gibbs back. But it should be well more than 40 yards this time.
However, that didn’t even matter in Week 6 as Jared Goff stepped up with 353 yards. He found Amon-Ra St. Brown 12 times for 124 yards and a touchdown. Jameson Williams had a spectacular 45-yard touchdown too.
Goff was in control that game and did well against the usual heavy blitz from a Todd Bowles-coached defense. Despite facing 22 blitzes, Goff’s pressure rate was 14.6%, his third-lowest game this season (source: Pro Football Reference).
Mayfield only completed 19-of-37 passes that day, but some of that could be explained by how often he kept throwing deep as his average pass traveled 12.0 yards down the field. He made a bad throw on 25% of his attempts, his second-highest game this year (source: Pro Football Reference). He was also pressured 22.5% of the time, and the Bucs were 1-4 this year when his pressure rate was at least 22%.
Like Detroit, Tampa only rushed for 40 yards with its backfield that day. Mayfield just didn’t make up for it in the passing game like Goff did as the Bucs scored just two field goals on 10 possessions in a dud of a game.
Let’s hope for something a bit more exciting this week in the dome.
Injury Watch
Both teams seemed to get by well on the injury front this week. Detroit tight end Sam LaPorta was able to play against the Rams despite his knee injury a week ago. He even caught a touchdown, and he should feel even better for this game.
Baker Mayfield had rib and ankle injuries that kept him questionable for the Eagles game, but he of course played and played very well. He looked nimble and like a totally different quarterback from the one who was limping around 8 days earlier in Carolina.
As we said compared to Week 6, the Lions probably get the best of it with their running backs available this time around. Rookie defensive back Brian Branch also missed that game and will be available Sunday.
Stats to Know
Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup (stats are for the 2023 season unless noted otherwise):
- While the Lions won the only close game on wild card weekend, they still have the best spread record in the league, 35-17 (67.3%), since Dan Campbell took over as coach in 2021.
- As a home favorite, Campbell is 8-5 ATS, the sixth-best record since 2021.
- Todd Bowles is 7-3 ATS (70%) as a road underdog since 2022 with Tampa.
- Jared Goff vs. Bowles’ Tampa defense: 2-1 record, at least 30 completions and 353 passing yards in every game, 7 TD, 5 INT, 93.8 passer rating.
- Goff’s 353 yards vs. Tampa was his season high in passing yards.
- Goff has only thrown 2 interceptions in 224 postseason attempts (4-3 record).
- Mayfield has thrown multiple touchdowns in 7-of-9 road games this year.
- Tampa Bay is 1-6 when allowing more than 20 points.
- The Lions have scored at least 20 points in every home game this season.
- The Lions are 11-1 when they do not have multiple giveaways in a game.
- Tampa’s offense is only No. 30 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns, but the defense ranks No. 3 in the same category.
- Detroit (40) has more than double the number of fourth-down attempts than Tampa Bay (18) on offense.
- Tampa Bay is only 1-4 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities (Detroit is 2-2 this year and 3-2 at game-winning drive opportunities).
- Tampa is 23rd in yards gained and 23rd in yards allowed.
Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff: The Shot for Redemption
This game differs a bit from the rest of the weekend. Chiefs-Bills is a rivalry with a lot of recent matchup history and Super Bowl impact. We finally got to talk in detail about what the No. 1 seeds, the Ravens and 49ers, are facing this week as they start their playoff runs.
But we talked about the flaws of the Lions (defense) and Buccaneers (bottom-tier playoff team) last week before they won their wild-card games. With no real recent history or playoff history between them, I thought we’d instead focus on profiling the quarterbacks since they have a lot in common here, and one is guaranteed to start the NFC Championship Game and be one step away from the Super Bowl.
Jared Goff was the No. 1 overall pick by the Rams in 2016. Baker Mayfield joined him in that club with the No. 1 pick by the Browns in 2018. Both had successful, prolific college careers. Goff had a horrific rookie season in the NFL while Mayfield impressed with 27 touchdown passes.
But they could not have gone in more different directions in Year 2.
The Rams hired coach Sean McVay, they completely reworked their wide receiver room, and Goff looked so much better in leading the team to the playoffs with a good situation around him. A year later, he was even in the Super Bowl, which ended on a sour note in a 13-3 loss to the Patriots. His play declined in 2019, the team switched gears to defense in 2020 while Goff struggled more, then he was shipped to Detroit in 2021 as a throwaway piece to that massive move to acquire Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles. Goff was an afterthought.
Meanwhile, Mayfield thought he could build on his rookie year in 2019 after the team brought in wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., but that never worked out. He threw a lot of interceptions trying to make that work, and the Browns fired their coach again. But like when Goff met McVay, Baker’s fortunes improved in 2020 when the Browns hired Kevin Stefanski, who would win Coach of the Year after getting the best out of Mayfield in his high-scoring offense. The Browns won 11 games and even won their first playoff game since the 1994 season, beating their bitter rival Steelers in Pittsburgh in a 48-37 game. A week later, Mayfield almost pulled off an upset of the Chiefs in Kansas City, but the Chiefs hung on for a 22-17 win.
In 2021, Mayfield was now the one unable to sustain his success as he took a beating that year and had a labrum injury that cut his season short. The team moved on and Mayfield joined the Panthers in 2022, a mistake as coach Matt Rhule was a disaster, and was fired early in the season. Mayfield was benched and eventually discarded where he signed with the Rams, and despite knowing McVay’s offense for barely 48 hours, he started in a Thursday night game and led one of the greatest comeback wins ever against the Raiders. But that stop was short-lived lived and he ended up going to Tampa for the difficult task of replacing Tom Brady in 2023.
As for Goff, that first year in Detroit in 2021 was a rough one as the team had to rebuild the mess of what Matt Patricia and the previous regime did. But Dan Campbell had a vision, and Goff helped the team remain competitive despite the 3-13-1 record. But for 2022, Ben Johnson took over as offensive coordinator to balance the offensive attack with a good backfield, Amon-Ra St. Brown blossomed into a No. 1 wide receiver, the offensive line was strong led by tackle Penei Sewell, and Goff led a top 5 offense while having his best season since the Super Bowl year in 2018.
You can argue Goff got better in 2023 while the team added rookies Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs to the mix. The Lions tied the franchise record with 12 wins and just won their first playoff game since 1991.
Meanwhile, Mayfield was still stuck with the No. 32 rushing attack in Tampa Bay which was a problem last year. But the overall play-calling was better under new coordinator Dave Canales, who helped Geno Smith break out in Seattle in 2022, and Mayfield started to thrive in this offense in Tampa, producing better results than Brady did last year. He threw 13 touchdowns to Mike Evans, who led the league in that department, the first time Evans has ever led the league in anything. Mayfield won a playoff game with over 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes, the first time any quarterback in franchise history has done that.
Goff and Mayfield. They have been the butt of many jokes over the years. Neither has ever been viewed as a truly elite quarterback, and that’s fine. The league still needs competent passers who can thrive in the right situations with good coaching and teammates around them. You’d sooner watch them play this weekend than another game between Sam “Sack” Howell and Kenny Pickett.
Goff and Mayfield have been dinged over the years for being “play-action merchants” that only looked good because of McVay and Stefanski. Well, I think that’s been blown out of the water a good bit since Goff has revitalized himself in Detroit without McVay, and Mayfield did look better under Stefanski than Deshaun Watson ever has under Stefanski in Cleveland. Mayfield also just had arguably his best season in 2023 when you consider that the 2020 season was the highest-scoring season ever thanks to the pandemic and no crowds.
There are a lot of quarterbacks who would not have been able to go to Cleveland and Detroit and end those long playoff droughts. Mayfield and Goff pulled that off. They have won playoff games with two different franchises now. We’ve seen Goff in a Super Bowl for the Rams, and now Mayfield just won his first playoff game with Tampa Bay.
They have earned their starting spots in this league. They have overcome injuries and thrived when put in position too. They may not have the Hall of Fame in the future, but they serve an important purpose in a league that has lost many great quarterbacks in recent years.
While this may not be a traditional divisional-round matchup, it’s a refreshing sight of new teams in the mix, and for all we know, Mayfield vs. Goff may be the best passing display this weekend. Before you laugh, consider that some of the best passing duels of the 2023 season have already included Mayfield vs. C.J. Stroud in Houston, Goff vs. Justin Herbert in Los Angeles, and Goff vs. Geno Smith in Detroit.
Just appreciate them at their best, because as fans of the Browns, Lions, and Buccaneers can tell you, it can be much worse than Goff and Mayfield.
Best Bets and Prediction
There was not a single lead change in the final 22 quarters of wild card weekend. With the No. 1 seeds hovering around 10-point favorites this week, a game like this could be the answer to which game will be close and exciting in the fourth quarter?
That’s why my favorite bets include the Lions winning a close one (1-13 points) and the over (48.5) to hit. It’s actually a shock the over didn’t hit last week in Rams-Lions after the way those offenses started the game hot. But the Lions scored just one field goal after halftime, and the Rams never found the end zone again, settling for field goals twice.
I think this game will have a little more scoring than that and better balance among the four quarters. Both teams have the receivers to make big plays, the Lions have their running backs this time, and Goff and Mayfield are coming off very good games and look comfortable and confident.
Technically, the Bucs probably have the better defensive team in this game, but I trust Goff’s history against Bowles and think he should be fine against the blitz as long as he doesn’t have his “Jared Goof” moments and throw the ball right to a defender or one of his classic “empty hand” fumble plays he seems to have a few times every season. But he generally moves the ball well against Tampa and puts up points.
Aidan Hutchinson will need another big game to put pressure on Mayfield. The running game for the Bucs has looked better with Rachaad White compared to earlier in the season, but I’m not sure either team runs it well this time again. That may be something that carries over well from Week 6. Put it on the quarterbacks and these receivers to score points. It’s not just the big names too as Trey Palmer and Jameson Williams could be factors in this one.
In the end, I like Campbell’s gutsy moves at home with this talented offense to be enough to outscore Tampa and advance the Lions to the NFC Championship Game. Not a sentence I ever thought I would get to write.
