2023-24 NFL Playoffs: AFC Divisional Round Preview

By Scott Kacsmar

You really cannot compete in the NFL playoffs on the AFC side without a franchise quarterback these days. We see it again in this AFC divisional round with another classic meeting between Josh Allen’s Bills and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs, and likely MVP winner Lamar Jackson of the Ravens will face likely Offensive Rookie of the Year winner C.J. Stroud of the Texans.

Both games are rematches from earlier this year, and the team that won that meeting is at home and favored to win again this weekend. But that doesn’t mean it will be a cakewalk for Baltimore or Buffalo, two teams that have had their share of playoff disappointment over the years.

Both the Ravens and Bills are trying to overcome the Five-Year Rule where no team has ever won its first Super Bowl after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than 5 years. This is Year 6 for the duos of Josh Allen-Sean McDermott and Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh after they were both drafted in the first round in 2018. Maybe they get a bonus year for COVID-19. Maybe Lamar gets a couple of bonus years for going down with a season-ending injury the last two Decembers.

But a Super Bowl win from either duo would be historic in that regard, just as it would be historic for C.J. Stroud to become the first rookie quarterback to even start a Super Bowl this year. Stroud just became the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game after his dazzling performance in the wild card round against Cleveland.

And of course, Patrick Mahomes could add to his legacy by reaching a fourth Super Bowl in the last five seasons with eyes on winning his third by age 28. It would also be the league’s first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots, ending the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion.

With a huge divisional round for legacy defining in the AFC, we have in-depth previews with all the stats, injury notes, matchups, betting advice, and predictions you need for both AFC games below.  

Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, O/U 44.5)

The No. 4 Houston Texans (11-7) will take on the No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (13-4) this Saturday afternoon in Baltimore. Given Baltimore’s lack of recent playoff success, C.J. Stroud comes into this game with just as many wins (1) and touchdown passes (3) in the postseason as Lamar Jackson has in his career. But this is a chance for Jackson and the Ravens to write a new chapter as a heavy favorite at home where they are tough to beat.

The Last Matchup

Week 1: Ravens 25, Texans 9

The Ravens started their regular season with Houston and that will be the case to start their playoff run too. A game from Week 1 probably doesn’t translate much to Saturday since both teams have gotten better since that start. Baltimore was learning a new offensive system from coordinator Todd Monken, and Lamar Jackson didn’t have his biggest games until later in the year.

C.J. Stroud and the Texans weren’t expected to win more than 6-to-7 games this year, and no one imagined they would already be a division winner and a playoff game winner. Stroud had one of the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, but in Week 1, he could only settle for 3 field goals for his offense. Stroud was 28-of-44 for 242 yards with no touchdowns but also no interceptions. He did take 5 sacks and ran the ball 4 times for 20 yards on scrambles.

It was a sloppy Week 1 game with a lot of penalties. The Texans had 9 penalties for 88 yards and the Ravens had 13 penalties for 106 yards. Baltimore even lost the turnover battle 2-1, something the Texans are good at winning since they protect the ball well.

Jackson was 17-of-22 for 169 yards, a pick, and lost 1-of-2 fumbles. He took 4 sacks and ran 6 times for 38 yards. Rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers had a strong debut with 9 catches for 78 yards, though several of those catches gained no yards or even lost yards as it was not one of the better passing efficiency days for Baltimore. The Texans were also 1-of-4 teams this year to hold the Ravens under 125 rushing yards, so that can be viewed as another positive for Houston in a rematch.

Basically, the Ravens were not dominant in either facet of offense, but they still got an easy win against an outmatched line with a rookie quarterback struggling to finish drives in his NFL debut.

But that would not be the way to describe this new matchup with the confidence Stroud and the Texans have gained over this season under coach DeMeco Ryans.

Injury Watch

These teams have changed a fair amount since Week 1, but it is worth pointing out that Baltimore tight end Mark Andrews also missed that game to start the season. He has been out since Week 11’s injury against Cincinnati, and while there is some real hope he will play again before this season ends, it is unlikely going to be this week. But Isaiah Likely has done a very good job of replacing Andrews as the lead tight end.

Baltimore should be well rested after giving key starters Week 18 off, and then enjoying a proper bye week during the wild card round. That gives a player like safety Kyle Hamilton plenty of time to feel close to 100% again.

The Texans have had more serious injuries to their receiver position. They already lost rookie Tank Dell for the year, and now Noah Brown is on IR, which ends his season. Dell, Brown, and Nico Collins became the first trio in NFL history to have multiple games with over 140 receiving yards in the same season. But only Collins is still there. Robert Woods and John Metchie will have to step up this week.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup (stats are for 2023 season unless noted otherwise):

• In the Super Bowl era, teams favored by 8-to-11 points in the playoffs are 79-25 SU (76.0%) and 58-46 ATS (55.8%).
• The last team in that position to lose outright was the 2019 Ravens against Tennessee. A 10-point favorite, Baltimore lost 28-12 in a shocker.
• Baltimore is 11-6 ATS (64.7%), the 3rd-best record in 2023.
• Since 2008 under coach John Harbaugh, the Ravens are 87-27 SU (76.3%) as a home favorite, the 3rd-best record in that time.
• Lamar Jackson has been sacked 4 times in 4 games this year, including Week 1 against Houston.
• The Texans were 1-of-3 defenses that Jackson did not have a passing or rushing touchdown against this season.
• Baltimore has outperformed the spready by an average of 8.3 points, the highest mark in the league. Houston (+3.8) is tied with Green Bay for No. 4 in that metric.
• The Texans have a league-low 14 giveaways on offense.
• Stroud only has 5 interceptions that came in 3 games this season.
• The Ravens tied the Giants with a league-high 31 takeaways on defense this year.
• Baltimore allows a league-low 16.5 points per game.
• Only 5 teams have scored more than 20 points against the Ravens this year, and only the Steelers (twice by scores of 17-10) beat the Ravens without scoring 20 points. Baltimore rested key starters, including Jackson, in the Week 18 loss.
• In Weeks 16-17 games against the 49ers and Dolphins that wrapped up the No. 1 seed and a likely MVP for Jackson, he threw for 573 yards, 7 touchdowns, 0 interceptions, and a 145.3 passer rating.
• Weeks 16-17 were the first time all season Jackson passed for 225 yards in back-to-back games, and the only time he has thrown multiple touchdowns in back-to-back games in 2023.
• Houston has been held under 20 points in 5-of-8 road games this season.
• Neither team had 270 yards of offense when they met in Week 1.
• The Colts (twice) are the only team to rush for over 125 yards against Houston. Baltimore had 110 rushing yards in Week 1.
• In a surprise twist, Houston is 5-1 (.833) when allowing more than 110 rushing yards, the best record in the league. The next-best record is 6-3 (.667) by the Ravens in that split.
• Houston is 7-0 when scoring at least 23 points.
• Baltimore is 13-1 when scoring at least 20 points, only losing to the Browns (33-31).
• The Ravens have had at least a fourth-quarter tie in 18 straight games going back to last year’s playoff loss in Cincinnati.
• Baltimore’s defense led with 60 sacks despite the 23rd-highest pressure rate (19.5%), meaning their pressure is very effective when it comes.

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Texans – Not Strong Enough on Either Side?

Before the Houston fans get mad, C.J. Stroud is a special rookie quarterback. If they are going to ride him this postseason, then good luck, because no rookie quarterback has ever made it to the Super Bowl. The ones who came the closest (Conference Championship Game) always had the support of an elite defense, which Stroud lacks in Houston.

You could also say the offense in Houston, despite Stroud’s success, is not elite yet. By conventional metrics, the Texans were only 13th in points, 12th in yards, 15th in first downs, 22nd in rushing, 29th in yards per carry, 19th on third down, and 16th in the red zone. Not the kind of rankings you’d associate with an elite offense.

Typically, a Super Bowl team needs to be elite on at least one side of the ball. Being merely “good” or average on both sides of the ball almost never leads to a championship.

When you look at the remaining playoff teams in the AFC using the team efficiency metric DVOA from Football Outsiders, the Texans pale in comparison to their rivals on both sides of the ball:

• Ravens: No. 4 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 1 overall
• Bills: No. 3 offense, No. 12 defense, No. 3 overall
• Chiefs: No. 8 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 5 overall
• Texans: No. 14 offense, No. 16 defense, No. 12 overall

Since 1981, only the 2007 Giants (No. 18 offense, No. 14 defense) won the Super Bowl while ranking no higher than No. 14 on either side of the ball in DVOA.

The Texans have been one of the best stories this NFL season, but they are not one of the league’s best teams just yet. They would need a monumental upset this week, and then something similar next week in Buffalo or Kansas City just to get to the Super Bowl.

Ravens – Another January Letdown?

By and large, the top-seeded Ravens have what they need to win a Super Bowl this year.

• Their coach has won it all before and their kicker, Justin Tucker, is the GOAT.
• They have the No. 1 defense that has already held strong offenses like the 49ers, Dolphins, and Lions under 20 points in dominant wins this year.
• They have the top rushing game, which is aided by Lamar Jackson’s unique abilities.
• Even if Jackson has not had the usual benchmarks for an MVP season at the quarterback position, he had several of his best games in the biggest games against those aforementioned teams.
• The Bills are always a game away from imploding, and the Chiefs are at their weakest in the Mahomes era and will have to come to Baltimore for the AFC Championship Game.

Things have set up well for Baltimore, but it wouldn’t be the first time the Ravens failed to deliver this time of year. There’s a reason we talk about C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love already having as many playoff wins and touchdown passes in the playoffs as Jackson despite being first-year starters with 1 playoff game under their belts. It’s just the truth at this point, which is why Jackson should have more pressure on him than anyone right now. We’ve already seen Dak Prescott, who had his best season in 2023, and the Cowboys implode.

Before you say that’s what Dallas does every year, don’t forget that John Harbaugh is 2-5 in the playoffs in the decade since he won his only Super Bowl with Baltimore in the 2012 season. Jackson is only 1-3 in the playoffs with more turnovers (7) than total touchdowns (4).

In all three of Jackson’s postseasons, the Ravens scored their season low in points with him at quarterback in a playoff game. He has yet to score more than 20 points in four tries. This is not normal as you can see when you compare how frequently that’s happened to other notable quarterbacks, most of which are his peers:

• Lamar Jackson (100%): three times in three postseasons (2018, 2019, 2020)
• Joe Flacco (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2009, 2023)
• Philip Rivers (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2007, 2009)
• Tom Brady (25.0%): five times in 20 postseasons (2005, 2007, 2011-T, 2012, 2019-T)
• Cam Newton (25.0%): once in four postseasons (2015)
• Peyton Manning (20.0%): three times in 15 postseasons (2002, 2004, 2013)
• Josh Allen (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2022)
• Matthew Stafford (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2016-T)
• Patrick Mahomes (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2020)
• Matt Ryan (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2011)
• Russell Wilson (12.5%): once in eight postseasons (2015)
• Drew Brees (10.0%): once in 10 postseasons (2020)
• Dak Prescott (0.0%): zero times in 5 postseasons
• Aaron Rodgers (0.0%): zero times in 11 postseasons
• Ben Roethlisberger (0.0%): zero times in 12 postseasons

It might be impossible for this to happen to Jackson this year since the Ravens scored just 10 points with him in Pittsburgh in a Week 5 loss. But that game is a good example of how the 2023 Ravens could lose a game this postseason. It likely is going to be on the offense more than the top-ranked defense. In that Pittsburgh game, Lamar’s receivers dropped a lot of passes early, including some touchdowns, that could have opened up a huge lead for the Ravens. Instead, they didn’t score again after taking a 10-0 lead, then Jackson had some bad turnovers in the fourth quarter and Pittsburgh was able to come back for a 17-10 win.

We saw it last week in the Packers-Cowboys game. Dak Prescott was just a little off on a third-down throw to CeeDee Lamb to end one drive, Jaire Alexander picked him off in his own end on another, and before you knew it, Dak threw a pick-six while he was down three scores to fall behind 27-0. Season basically over there after a few mistakes in a poor start.

Things can snowball quickly, especially for teams not used to winning playoff games this time of year. We saw it happen against this Houston team last week when Joe Flacco had a nice start for Cleveland. But after a couple of pressures got to him, he threw a pick-six while trying to throw a pass away, then threw another one on the next drive to fall into a 38-14 hole. Game over.

The Ravens are certainly not unbeatable, and while their stats are gaudy, the 2019 team had better marks and Jackson’s individual numbers were more dominant as both a passer and runner. That team still blew it against Tennessee and Derrick Henry in a similar situation where they rested the final game against Pittsburgh before the bye week.

When you consider the Houston defense limited this offense on big plays in Week 1, think about this as a playoff scenario:

• Zay Flowers struggles since rookie receivers rarely are huge contributors to Super Bowl-winning teams
• Odell Beckham Jr. only caught 54.7% of his targets this year and that deep connection from Jackson didn’t always look the greatest.
• Nelson Agholor and Rashod Bateman could always drop the ball in big spots.
• Melvin Gordon is a fumble waiting to happen if the Ravens dare give him the ball in that running back rotation this postseason after they lost big-play threat Keaton Mitchell.

It’s not exactly an all-star cast here. The Ravens leaned more on defense and having the best average starting field position through turnovers and strong special teams play. If this team is going down in the postseason, it likely is going to be through the offense not producing, and not coming through in crunch time as Jackson did not lead a single game-winning drive this season. He failed on his chances against the Colts in an overtime loss, and he didn’t get it done against the Rams either in overtime. The special teams won that game with a punt return touchdown.

The Ravens have the fundamental pieces to win a championship this year, but they haven’t earned the benefit of doubt that they should be trusted to do so.

Here is their first chance to rewrite that story.

Best Bets and Prediction

I am not a big fan of the “C.J. Stroud does his best in big games” because of something he did in the Rose Bowl against Utah, but some players are just built different. Before “The Catch” in the 1981 NFC Championship Game, Joe Montana was known for the Chicken Soup Game, otherwise known as the 1979 Cotton Bowl Classic when he overcame the flu and Houston’s defense to lead a big comeback win for Notre Dame.

Montana was a player where the college folklore carried on throughout his NFL career where he was one of the best big-game quarterbacks in history.

Stroud will hope to be on that path, and we’ve already seen him play very well with his team’s season on the line against Indianapolis in Week 18 and a tough Cleveland defense last week in the wild card round.

That’s why I’m thinking Texans +9.5 (even better if you tease it to +10) is the play here. It accounts for Baltimore maybe starting slow and rusty, Houston pulling the upset, for Stroud making it tough on Baltimore, and the possibility of Baltimore just choking another playoff game away.

Houston’s ball security not feeding the Ravens with short fields off turnovers is a big positive in this matchup. The running game and offensive line are better than they were in Week 1. Stroud is a better player even if he won’t have two of his best wideouts in Dell and Brown. He still has Nico Collins, who had 80 yards in Week 1.

At the end of the day, I’d still expect Baltimore to win. The narrative of No. 1 scoring defense at home against a rookie quarterback is very hard to beat this time of year. But there is at least real potential for a memorable game with this one.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, O/U 45.5)

The No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (12-6) will take on the No. 2 Buffalo Bills (12-6) this Sunday evening in Buffalo. The Bills started their 6-game winning streak against the Chiefs in Week 14, and that head-to-head win is why Patrick Mahomes is on the road for the first time in his playoff career.

The early weather reports suggest something better than what both teams experienced last week. It should be around 20 degrees with minimal wind for Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to sling it as they meet for the 7th time since 2020. The series is tied 3-3, but the Chiefs hold the 2-0 edge in playoff games, so this is a huge opportunity for the Bills to finally slay that dragon in the postseason at home.

The Last Matchup

Week 14: Bills 20, Chiefs 17

These teams know each other so well with all the recent matchups that always carry significant importance. The Bills have also been to Kansas City 5 times since the 2020 AFC Championship Game, so they are used to playing in that building, and they play the Chiefs there as well as any team in the league.

In fact, you could argue the Bills were 13 seconds of better game management away from having won 4 straight in Arrowhead:

• The Bills handed Mahomes his biggest home loss by a 38-20 final in the 2021 regular season.
• In the 2021 divisional round, the teams combined to score 31 points after the 2-minute warning in an instant classic that ended 42-36 in overtime with the Chiefs pulling off the improbable comeback after it looked like the Bills won the game with 13 seconds left in regulation.
• In a hyped Week 6 game in 2022, the Bills came back late to win 24-20 and intercepted Mahomes on the final drive to seal the victory.
• In Week 14, we saw the most significant offensive offsides penalty, a penalty you never even think about, when Kadarius Toney was flagged for it late in the game to negate his go-ahead touchdown after a brilliant lateral from Travis Kelce that would have been the play of the year.

That Toney-Kelce play may still go down as the play of the year as it could end up being the breaking point between the Bills missing the playoffs after a 6-7 start and going on a run all the way through the Super Bowl.

But this has been a series where the games usually come down to who has the ball last and which team makes the winning play. Both quarterbacks usually play very well, but this is the first year where you can say the Chiefs are better (or at least right on par) defensively than the Bills.

But in Week 14, it was really the defenses that showed up as neither team reached 21 points or had a play longer than 27 yards, and neither quarterback had a passer rating above 75.0. Allen and Mahomes both had 1 touchdown pass and 1 interception.

The Bills led 14-0 early but the Chiefs came back to tie the game at 17 in the fourth quarter. After the Bills scored a field goal with 1:54 left, that’s when the Chiefs had their offensive offsides mistake, a penalty that sometimes has never been called once in a complete NFL season:

https://twitter.com/awfulannouncing/status/1734228422304408037/video/1

We’ve never seen Mahomes more heated or animated after a play in his career. The Chiefs still had a 2nd-and-15 near midfield in a 3-point game after this, but that’s when the offensive line fell apart, and they did not gain another yard against that stout defense. The Chiefs turned it over on downs as for the fifth time this season, Mahomes threw an incomplete pass on 4th-and-10 or longer in a loss.

Injury Watch

On the health front, the Chiefs should have the advantage.

Lead running back Isiah Pacheco missed the Week 14 game, but he is back and ready to roll for the Chiefs, who could use more of a ground attack than they had with Clyde Edwards-Helaire only gaining 39 yards on 11 carries last time.

Toney was the one with the offsides blunder in Week 14, but he hasn’t played since Week 15 when he made another mistake by dropping a pass that was intercepted. The Chiefs may want to milk his injury for as long as they can to keep him off the field.

The Bills were already missing several players against Pittsburgh, and it is unclear if they will be back or not for this game. Wide receiver Gabe Davis may be the most notable given his past with the Chiefs like when he had 201 yards and 4 touchdowns in that 2021 playoff game. Davis helps out Stefon Diggs, who was held to 24 yards on 11 targets in Week 14 this year as he hasn’t always had good games against the Chiefs, who have a standout corner in L’Jarius Sneed.

The Bills also watched breakout linebacker Terrel Bernard get carted off the field against Pittsburgh, but reports are he did not fracture anything and has a chance to return in time for this game.

Stats to Know

Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup (stats are for 2023 season unless noted otherwise):

• This is the first time all season the Chiefs (+2.5) with Mahomes are not favored. They were a Week 18 underdog against the Chargers in a game where they rested starters.
• As an underdog in his career, Mahomes is 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS.
• The only time Mahomes did not get at least a push as an underdog was when he lost 24-20 at home to the Bills in 2022 as a 2.5-point underdog.
• Since 2020, Buffalo is 29-6 SU (82.9%) as a home favorite.
• Since 1970, home teams in the divisional round who are 2-to-2.5-point favorites are 10-4 ATS and 10-4 SU (71.4%).
• For all playoff rounds, home favorites of 2-to-2.5 points are 17-15 ATS (53.1%) and 21-11 SU (65.6%).
• While Mahomes has never started a road playoff game, he is 10-8-1 ATS (55.3%) and 11-8 SU (57.9%) in regular-season games on the road against teams that made the playoffs that year.
• The Chiefs only played one playoff team on the road this season, and they allowed a season-high 27 points in a 27-19 loss in Green Bay in Week 13.
• Kansas City also played Miami on a neutral field in Germany in Week 9 and won 21-14.
• The Chiefs are 2-6 when they allow more than 17 points this season.
• Mahomes at home in his career (playoffs included): 65.5% complete, 7.6 YPA, 101.9 passer rating, 7.52 ANY/A, 4.35% sack rate, and 52.0% passing success rate.
• Mahomes on road in his career (playoffs included): 68.0% complete, 8.3 YPA, 107.6 passer rating, 8.19 ANY/A, 3.72% sack rate, and 53.7% passing success rate.
• The Chiefs led the league in dropped passes and had multiple drops in all losses.
• After Buffalo blitzed Mahomes 10 times in a 2022 win, they did it 12 times in Week 14 and his pressure rate (22.2%) was the first time the Bills got to him at a rate above 20.0% in 6 career meetings.
• This shows the shift in defensive philosophy under coach Sean McDermott as the Bills infamously had games in 2020-21 where they sent 0 or 2 blitzes in the entire game at Mahomes.
• Mahomes is 66-8 (.892) when the Chiefs allow fewer than 27 points, but 2 of the losses are to the Bills, and 5 of the losses are from this season alone as teams no longer have to score 27+ to beat the Chiefs.
• Despite firing their offensive coordinator halfway through the season, Buffalo still ranks No. 1 in third down conversion rate (49.8%) and No. 6 in red zone touchdown rate (63.1%).
• The usually elite Chiefs on offense are only No. 6 on third down (43.6%) and No. 17 in the red zone (54.1%).
• Josh Allen is 34-12 (.739) when he does not throw an interception in his career, which includes a 16-2 record at home since 2020.
• Turnover differential in 2023: Bills +2, Chiefs -11
• Buffalo’s 30 takeaways rank No. 3 while the Chiefs only have 17 takeaways (tied for No. 28).

The Fatal Flaw

What is the factor most likely to lead to each team’s downfall this postseason and in this matchup in particular?

Both Teams – Beating Themselves

I do not think it is a copout to say that the team that makes fewer mistakes will win the game, and that these teams have a nasty habit of beating themselves.

The Bills have blown 4 leads in the fourth quarter or overtime this year, tied for the second most in 2023. That’s why they were only 6-6 despite outscoring teams by over 100 points going into the Kansas City game. They also obviously have turnover issues with Allen’s risky style of play, and that got them in trouble against the Jets, Broncos, and Patriots.

The Chiefs just have so many offensive miscues this year. Beyond the killer dropped passes, you get the obligatory fumble on almost a weekly basis, the offensive tackles (namely right tackle Jawaan Taylor) love racking up penalties, Mahomes has thrown a few more bad picks than we are used to seeing from him, and Andy Reid can get too cute for his own good at times with the play calls.

With the Bills, we want to say they have cleaned up the turnovers with the coordinator change, but they did turn it over 3 times against both the Chargers and Dolphins. But they found a way to win those close games, so it is good to see Buffalo grinding out the tough wins instead of sticking to that “win big, lose close” label they’ve had for years. Allen did protect the ball very well against Pittsburgh last week.

The Chiefs, even in a 26-7 playoff win over Miami, you could see the drops were still an issue, but we’ll give that a pass for the extremely cold temperatures. But the red zone was an issue as they settled for 4 field goals after settling for 6 field goals against the Bengals in Week 17. That’s bound to bite them eventually this postseason. But the flaws at wide receiver are still a concern with Mahomes now throwing deep passes on third downs for Mecole Hardman, who has the worst ball-tracking skills of any receiver you’ll ever see. But I guess if the choice is Hardman not looking for a ball or Toney dropping one into the hands of a defender for a pick…

But lately, it has been the Chiefs who have not made the plays at the end to beat the Bills. If Buffalo would just squib kick with 13 seconds left in 2021, we might be talking about 4 straight wins over Kansas City and a different outlook on this rivalry.

But the pressure is on the Bills to deliver at home, and that is going to take a clean performance as the Kansas City defense is very much legitimate this season. That doesn’t mean there still isn’t pressure on the Chiefs to win and defend their title and status as the premiere franchise in the game this decade.

This could be a classic, but it should be dictated by the defense that makes the biggest plays.

Best Bets and Prediction

Either team winning should not come as a surprise in this one.

This is the most alike these teams have ever been during this rivalry. Both have a strong defense that can dictate the flow of games and keep the score down, so you shouldn’t come in expecting 42-36 or 38-24 this time around. It should be more like the 24-20 and 20-17 games they’ve played the last two seasons.

Travis Kelce and Stefon Diggs haven’t been as dominant this year, especially in the second half of the season. Both quarterbacks are capable of leading their team in rushing if they have to, but they also like what James Cook and Isiah Pacheco bring to the table this season. I’d give the Chiefs the edge at kicker with Harrison Butker if it came down to that, and we do have to watch the injured punter situation for Buffalo in this one, which could affect field position.

But there are little things that should add up for Buffalo to win this game. I like how the Bills run the quarterback sneak (tush push) with Allen, and that is a play the Chiefs don’t run at all, depriving themselves of the most advantageous scrimmage play in the game out of a misplaced fear in getting Mahomes injured on it because of something that happened to his kneecap in 2019 in Denver. Give me Allen sneaking it to extend drives and keep Mahomes on the bench longer.

I’ve said since October that the Chiefs’ season would end with Mahomes throwing incomplete on 4th-and-forever after one of his numbskull receivers botches another game-winning play in a tight game. The earliest playoff exit in the Mahomes era would surely lead to massive changes in that wide receiver room outside of Rashee Rice, the only reliable one who is still just a rookie.

But I believe in history repeating itself, and this should be Buffalo’s night to conquer the beast at home. Get the monkey off their back like the 1994 49ers did at home in the NFC Championship Game against Dallas, a team that eliminated them the two previous years.

Knock off some of that Kansas City mystique the way the 2006 Colts did in the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots, paying them back for those playoff losses in the snow in 2003-04. That was also a New England team that was limited at receiver that year and not at their best, but they did have a great defense, similar to how the Chiefs are trying to get it done this year. I’d say there’s no way the Chiefs blow a 21-3 lead this week like those Patriots did, but Andy Reid has literally blown a 21-3 lead in the playoffs twice with the Chiefs, and a 38-10 lead against the Colts in 2013.

Having said that, I do think the angle of “the Chiefs have to win on the road this year” is a little overblown. Mahomes has better stats on the road than at home and that has been an annually consistent thing. It’s almost like he sharpens his focus on the road, and they don’t try to “entertain” as much as they do at home where he gets more careless with the ball, and they try to run the cutesy stuff. Road game means all business from the Chiefs, so I expect Mahomes to play well.

But do I expect those receivers to not drop key passes, to line up properly, to not fumble the ball away, and to not let him down in the end? Having watched this team the entire season, I don’t think they can avoid it to win another championship. Buffalo takes this one as that looks like the team of destiny right now, similar to the 2005 Steelers. We are overdue for a team that gets hot late and wins it with what might not be their best team overall, but it’s the right team to get it done.

The Chiefs had their shot to knock Buffalo out in Week 14. Now we’ll see if that offensive offsides penalty comes back to haunt them, or if we do get the inevitable Mahomes-Lamar AFC title game next week.

Either way, the fans win with this bracket.