By Scott Kacsmar
You could say an AFC Championship Game with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens has been four years in the making. This was once thought to be the next big rivalry in the NFL with Lamar Jackson winning his first MVP in 2019 a year after Patrick Mahomes made his mark with 50 touchdown passes.
But in the 2019 playoffs, the top-seeded Ravens suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the No. 6 seed Tennessee Titans. Instead of seeing Mahomes head to Baltimore for the AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs hosted the Titans and went on to win their first Super Bowl against the 49ers where Mahomes was named Super Bowl MVP.
In 2020, the teams met again early in the season with Mahomes shredding the Baltimore defense on the road in a 34-20 win where Jackson really struggled. There was a chance we’d see the Ravens go to Kansas City for the 2020 AFC Championship Game, but the Ravens lost 17-3 in Buffalo in the divisional round.
In 2021, the teams again met early in the season on a Sunday night in Week 2 in Baltimore. The Chiefs blew a 35-24 lead in the fourth quarter and Baltimore won 36-35 after Clyde Edwards-Helaire had a crucial fumble late in the game. But despite the Chiefs starting that season 3-4 and the Ravens starting 8-3, it was the Chiefs who again hosted the AFC Championship Game while the Ravens (8-9) missed the playoffs after Jackson was injured in December.
The teams did not meet in 2022 and the Chiefs had another No. 1 seed and went on to win their second Super Bowl. They had a chance to host the Ravens in the divisional round, but Baltimore lost in Cincinnati after backup Tyler Huntley was forced to start after another December injury to Jackson.
Jackson finally got his contract extension, he stayed healthy in 2023, and the Ravens rode the top-ranked defense to a 13-4 record and No. 1 seed. Jackson is likely going to win his second MVP award and has already been named first-team All-Pro. Mahomes had his most difficult regular season, finished with a career-high 6 losses, and the offense took a step back to a Kansas City defense that surprisingly surged to No. 2 in points allowed behind only Baltimore.
The Ravens dominated the Texans after halftime in the divisional round, and the Chiefs have looked very good offensively in the playoffs against Miami and Buffalo. Mahomes won his first road playoff game last week, and now the Chiefs are a bigger underdog this week in Baltimore.
It took four years due to Baltimore’s shortcomings, but this is the matchup we have expected for quite some time, and the pressure is on the Ravens to deliver at home after a stellar season. But the Chiefs are still the defending champions, they are playing their best defense in the Mahomes era, and they should give the Ravens their ultimate test this Sunday in a game that could prove very pivotal in how we view this era of the NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, O/U 44.5)
The No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs (13-6) will take on the No. 1 Baltimore Ravens (14-4) this Sunday afternoon in Baltimore. Both teams have been playing in cold playoff games this year, but the temperature is supposed to be near 50 degrees this time. However, rain could fall during the game, so it could be wet conditions with the ball, making fumbles the main concern.
The Last Matchup
Week 2, 2021: Ravens 36, Chiefs 35
Like with the NFC Championship Game, these teams have not met since September 2021, so it has been a while and a fair amount has changed since then. But we did already touch on the history between these teams in the introduction, and the Chiefs are 3-1 against Baltimore in the Mahomes-Jackson era.
But this was the one that got away from the Chiefs in Baltimore. Jackson threw a pick-six to Tyrann Mathieu in the game’s first minute, then was picked again in the opening quarter by Mathieu. Jackson eventually calmed down and had his best passing game so far against the Chiefs, who were playing poor defense to start the 2021 season. He finished with 239 passing yards, 107 rushing yards, and 3 total touchdowns while leading an 11-point comeback in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens, who would also struggle defensively in 2021, still had no real answers for Mahomes, who shredded them with 343 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did throw one interception, but it was a fumble by Clyde Edwards-Helaire when the Chiefs were down 36-35 and in field goal range with 1:20 left that killed the comeback for the Chiefs.
Baltimore was so concerned in giving Mahomes the ball back that Jackson was allowed to convert a 4th-and-1 run at his own 43 to end the game with 1:05 left.
Getting a game that good this Sunday would make this an instant classic, but both teams are much better defensively this time around.
Injury Watch
The Chiefs are fairly healthy for this game. Guard Joe Thuney and linebacker Willie Gay were injured in the Buffalo win, but both have a shot of playing this week.
The Ravens have far more interesting injury storylines. Corner Marlon Humphrey was out last week and has missed a fair chunk of this season, so the team has gotten used to succeeding without him. But he could return for this game.
The big question mark is tight end Mark Andrews, who has not played since Week 11 when he was injured. He was close to returning last week, but the team held off on that. Could that mean he returns this week? It is a gamble at this point of the season as the chemistry between Jackson and tight end Isaiah Likely has been very good. Andrews’ return does not mean Likely will take a seat, but it will change what they’ve been doing that’s been working so well.
Andrews used to be the target of criticism in Baltimore for his poor play (lack of production, drops, etc.) in big games like the playoffs and against the Chiefs:
- Jackson to Andrews vs. Chiefs: 4 games, 11-of-22 for 94 yards, 0 TD, 0 INT, 4 drops.
- Jackson to Andrews in playoffs: 4 games, 15-of-31 for 139 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 1 drop.
Throw in a possible wet ball from the rain, and after months of not getting hit in a real game, could Andrews cough up an early fumble or drop a pass that ends a drive or gets deflected for a pick? We’ll see if the team tries to hold off for one more game to bring him back for the Super Bowl or if they roll the dice and play him this Sunday.
Stats to Know
Here are some relevant and informative statistics for these teams heading into this matchup (stats are for 2023 season unless noted otherwise):
- As an underdog in his career, Patrick Mahomes is 8-3 SU and 9-1-1 ATS.
- Since 2019, Baltimore is 16-21 ATS (43.2%) as a home favorite.
- Since 1970, home favorites in the Conference Championship Game are 62-24 SU (72.1%) and 49-37 ATS (57.0%).
- However, home favorites of 1-to-4 points are 20-12 SU (62.5%) and 18-14 ATS (56.3%).
- The 2023 Ravens are the first defense since the 1970 merger to lead the league in points allowed, sacks, and turnovers in the same season.
- The Ravens beat the Texans by 24 points last week and did not allow an offensive touchdown despite not registering a sack or takeaway, the largest margin of victory in NFL history for a team that did not have either of those things in a game.
- Mahomes is 3-1 against the Ravens, throwing for at least 343 yards in every game with 12 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 9.07 yards per attempt, and a 119.1 passer rating.
- Mahomes has won 19 straight starts when he averages at least 6.39 yards per pass attempt.
- Mahomes has completed at least 73% of his passes against Baltimore in the last 3 meetings.
- Since 2022, Mahomes is 23-0 when he completes at least 64% of his passes in a game.
- The Chiefs led the league in dropped passes and had multiple drops in each loss.
- The Ravens had 31 takeaways this season to lead the league while the Chiefs only had 17 (tied for 28th).
- The Ravens are plus-12 in turnover differential and the Chiefs are minus-11.
- The Chiefs have not forced multiple turnovers in a game since Week 7 against the Chargers.
- The Ravens (60) and Chiefs (57) led all defenses in sacks.
- The Chiefs rank No. 2 in defensive pressure rate (27.8%) and the Ravens rank No. 23 (19.5%) according to Pro Football Reference.
- Lamar Jackson is 1-3 against the Chiefs and averages more yards per run (6.45) than he does yards per pass (6.20) in those games.
- Jackson is 12-19 (.387) when the Ravens allow at least 22 points.
- Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 22 points in 15-of-16 playoff games.
- Mahomes is 10-1 when the Chiefs allow fewer than 31 points in the playoffs.
- The Chiefs have not allowed more than 27 points in any game this season.
- The Ravens have allowed the Browns (33) and Rams (31) to both score over 30 points in Baltimore this season.
- Mahomes is 12-2 against top 5 defenses, including a scoring average of 28.5 points per game, a 7-0 record away from Kansas City, and a 4-0 record against No. 1 defenses.
- The Ravens allowed the fewest points before halftime this season (119 points).
- The Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime this season (126 points).
What to Watch for
With the teams one win away from the Super Bowl, we are looking at what might stand out about each matchup this Sunday.
When the Chiefs Have the Ball
Kansas City’s history of success in big games, in road games, and against top defenses should serve the team well in this matchup. You should not see the constant pre-snap penalties that plagued a young team like Houston last week in Baltimore.
But this is probably not going to look like the old matchups the Chiefs had with the Ravens when Mahomes just eviscerated their secondary while Baltimore sent a ton of blitzes at him. That strategy has largely been shelved when teams play Kansas City now, and new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald has not been heavy on blitzing this year and still has a unit with the most sacks. Of course, the Eagles had 70 sacks last year and Mahomes still found a way to dice them up in the Super Bowl.
But ball security and limiting mistakes are going to be extra important in this matchup. That has really been the story for the Chiefs all season long going back to opening night when they lost 21-20 to Detroit because Kadarius Toney turned a catch into a pick-six, then dropped another pass that would have set up a game-winning field goal. We’ve seen it in other games like when Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a go-ahead touchdown against the Eagles, and when Toney lined up offsides to negate that brilliant lateral play from Travis Kelce against the Bills.
Even last week, the Chiefs nearly blew their season by giving the ball to Mecole Hardman on 1st-and-goal and watching him fumble through the end zone after extending the ball when he had no shot of scoring. Andy Reid should be criticized for continuing to use these receivers in big spots, because their mistakes have far outweighed any positives they’ve had.
The obligatory fumble could turn into plural this week if the rain ends up being significant. But beyond the fumbles and league-leading dropped passes, you’re talking about a team that has a lot of penalties on the offensive tackles, so they are going to have to step up on the road here against a tough front.
A lot of the Chiefs’ mistakes are self-inflicted, but you can also blame the lack of talent at the receiver position for why they make those mistakes. This is who they’ve been all year, and so far it has worked out fine in the playoffs against Miami and Buffalo defenses that were far from full strength like the Ravens will be.
This is the toughest test yet for Mahomes, but we know he can answer it as can Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, and rookie Rashee Rice. The rest of the cast? That’s always the mystery, but that’s why they play the games. Even MVS made a couple of nice catches last week in Buffalo, so you never know what you are going to get.
But this type of matchup was always the concern for the 2023 Chiefs when you’re playing a team that can run the ball, score a lot of points, shrink the game, and defend with the best of them to make sure every little Kansas City drop, penalty, and turnover is magnified should the Chiefs only get 8 possessions or so. A defense that can contain Pacheco and draw extra attention to Kelce and put the pressure on Rice to deliver.
You never want to bet against Mahomes, and you know he won’t panic from a 10-to-14 point deficit. But the Chiefs have to be extra careful not to feed this Baltimore defense with turnovers and set up Jackson for short fields as the Ravens had the best starting field position this year thanks to those plays and sound special teams.
The Chiefs just need to hang in there and win this game in the second half. If that means taking some early sacks instead of forcing throws into coverage, then so be it. But when the Chiefs look at the tape of how the 49ers fared against Baltimore in Week 16, they should be confident that you can get receivers open and hit plays against this defense. You just have to avoid throwing 5 interceptions with most of them coming on deflections.
But the 2023 Chiefs have not quite earned the benefit of doubt that they will avoid those killer mistakes. They better just hope the season doesn’t end with Mahomes throwing to Hardman on 4th-and-25 only to see him give up on the route halfway to look for a flag instead of running for what would have been a 60-yard touchdown.
When the Ravens Have the Ball
Kansas City’s game against the Bills last week is either going to be a blessing or a curse for one of these teams. For the Chiefs, it may have served as good practice to get ready for a team that will run the football and run their uniquely skilled quarterback too while completing efficient passes to move the chains.
For the Ravens, they can look at what Buffalo did so successfully for three quarters and then build on it. The Bills had 24 points on 5 drives and were averaging 60 yards per drive going into the fourth quarter. Stunning numbers. But the Chiefs stuffed a couple of runs by James Cook to start drives, the Bills failed to connect on some deep balls, and they scared the Bills out of running on the final long drive that saw Josh Allen throw some bad incompletions before the field goal was missed.
The Ravens can look at that and figure they can do it better with Jackson running as his scrambles are so deadly. He had 100 yards and 2 touchdowns on the ground last week against Houston, the same numbers he had against the Chiefs in 2021 too. But maybe the Ravens can hit on some of the deep passes that Buffalo’s passing game, which had a strange finish to the season with Stefon Diggs regressing badly, lacked as the Bills never had a gain longer than 18 yards.
But if you’re the Chiefs, you’re almost daring Jackson to throw as that is still the best way for this defense to not surrender a lot of points. They have a great pass rush that can get to him, they can lock up receivers and Baltimore’s cast is not exactly that stellar either. The Chiefs have held Tyreek Hill under 65 yards twice this year. Surely they can keep down rookie Zay Flowers, drop-prone Nelson Agholor, and aging veteran Odell Beckham Jr.
When the Baltimore running game is clicking with the backs and not just Jackson’s runs, that’s when the Ravens get to unbeatable mode. But the backfield has taken some hits in losing J.K. Dobbins and Keaton Mitchell. They’re not as explosive without Mitchell and not as consistent with a healthy Dobbins.
That is why the pressure should be on Jackson to have an efficient dual-threat game and score on a defense that has been known to give up points early before settling in after halftime. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has faced Jackson multiple times in those 2019-21 meetings and succeeded against the passing game. This is his best defense yet, so both quarterbacks are seeing the best the opponent has to offer in this matchup.
The Ravens struggled in the first half against Houston last week, but that was probably due to the lack of playing time in Week 18 and having a bye week. They were a little rusty and needed time to warm up as DeMeco Ryans went against the grain and called a lot of blitzes. Once the Ravens adjusted, they destroyed the Texans after halftime.
With the way the Chiefs adjust, this should be a fascinating second half provided the game is still tight and a bunch of turnovers in the rain doesn’t produce a big deficit early.
Best Bets and Prediction
Like last week with Chiefs-Bills, it should not come as a surprise if the Chiefs pull this off and go back to another Super Bowl. It also should not be a surprise if the Ravens continue on their path and knock off the champs.
I wanted to say the over is my favorite bet, but the reports of rain make me wonder if we’ll see too many good drives stall out from a bad fumble or something wet ball related. But over 44.5 is probably still a good bet in a series that has gone over 50.5 points every time these quarterbacks met.
You have to think the Chiefs, win or lose, are going to seriously retool their receivers in the offseason, so this may be the best chance the Ravens get to beat them in a home championship game and go to the Super Bowl.
The Chiefs already overcame a lot of long odds last year when they had the No. 21 defense in points per drive, Mahomes was taking up 17% of the salary cap, he had a high-ankle sprain all postseason, and they still were able to win the Super Bowl. Doing it again this year by winning on the road in Buffalo and Baltimore as an underdog, then perhaps another Super Bowl win over San Francisco despite the poor turnover differential and so many mistakes throughout the year would be even crazier for the Chiefs.
Normally, you’d pick the Ravens with confidence as No. 1 defenses usually show up well at home in playoff games like this. But the Chiefs are not your typical No. 3 seed nor are they a typical underdog. Their defense is also very good, they may be able to run some with Pacheco, and they have a quarterback who is 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 13-3 as a starter in the playoffs with two losses in overtime.
At this point, I may not go all in on Mahomes winning as his teammate’s mistakes are hard to predict – seriously, Hardman fumbled through the end zone on first down – but I think Chiefs +3.5 is the right side in this one. Make Baltimore prove it can win this kind of game first. Then we can take them in the Super Bowl to finish the job.
But don’t be surprised if it’s two weeks of hearing about Taylor Swift and if Kelce will propose at the podium.
