Even after spending all offseason pouring over mock drafts and reading into every rumor and team visit, the 2022 NFL Draft is as impossible to predict as any sporting event. There will be trades that immediately destroy mock drafts. We’ll also see more than a few shocking picks that no one saw coming.
It’s easy for us at home to watch college football on Saturdays and then our favorite NFL team on Sundays and dream about the possibilities. What fans and media don’t get access to ends up mattering just as much as what happened on the field. Medical histories, interviews, and scheme fits must be considered when projecting landing spots.
Sometimes the most shocking picks happen because a team simply values the player more than anyone else. Other times, the front office may not consider a team to be nearly as important as the public does. Only time tells who was ultimately right.
We’ve scoured mock drafts and evaluated the players in this class and have found six potential shocking picks that might happen in the first round of the 2022 NFL Draft. Some of these players haven’t been mocked to these teams often enough, while others were pegged to be drafted later than our prediction.
Let’s dive in as we continue to prepare for one of the most unpredictable NFL drafts in recent memory.
New England Patriots Trade up for DT Jordan Davis
There’s not a more New England Patriots’ type of player in this class than Georgia defensive tackle Jordan Davis. That’s not simply because of the success Bill Belichick enjoyed when he had Vince Wilfork in the middle of his defenses from 2004-2014. Davis is a rare interior force with his massive 6’6″, 341-pound frame, much like Wilfork and Vita Vea have been.
Davis should be a lock to go higher than what we’ve seen him projected based on his movement ability and the importance of a penetrating defensive tackle. Often landing 12th overall to Minnesota or 14th overall to Baltimore, the New England Patriots should have a good idea of how high they’d need to trade up for him. Moving their 21st and 85th overall picks along with a 2023 second-round pick would be enough in trade value to leapfrog the Ravens.
It’s a heavy price to pay unless you feel Davis can be a transformative trench piece like I do. His presence opens up pass-rush lanes for all of his teammates as he occupies multiple blockers each play. And any offense that risks blocking him with one lineman will immediately learn that Davis’ surprising speed and obvious power is too much for one man to contain regularly.
Minnesota Vikings Select Pass Rusher Drake Jackson
New Minnesota Vikings general manager Kewsi Adofo-Mensah cut his teeth in research and development for the San Francisco 49ers before serving as VP of Football Operations in Cleveland. He’s learned the value of an efficient draft process from some of the best in the NFL. Trading down to stock assets while still drafting a similar-caliber player than what he could’ve had before moving is the ideal strategy.
With needs at defensive end and cornerback, Adofo-Mensah will look at the strength of this class at both positions and see the path to value. If the top two corners are off the board at No. 12, there’s no reason to force a pick there. The edge-rush class also has a dip after the top three names, and figure to be long gone by this selection.
Drake Jackson fits the analytical mold thanks to his solid production (103 tackles, 25 tackles for loss, and 12.5 sacks in three seasons) and age (he just turned 21 earlier this month). Despite this, he’s often projected in the second-round. Adding Jackson to a rotation of Danielle Hunter and Za’Darius Smith would not only help keep the veterans fresh but also put a clear heir in place to take over as a starter in the coming years.
Philadelphia Eagles Draft LB Quay Walker
Armed with two first-round picks, the Philadelphia Eagles can solidify a roster with few needs left on it. The most glaring weakness on defense is clearly at linebacker. Even after T.J. Edwards tallied 130 tackles and the team signed veteran Kyzir White from the Chargers in free agency, the Eagles don’t have a three-down coverage linebacker.
Adding former Georgia Bulldogs linebacker Quay Walker would solve this huge need. Walker is coming off a career year as a senior, where he finished with 65 total tackles and 5.5 tackles behind the line of scrimmage. Then, he raised his stock significantly this offseason with a 4.52 40-yard dash and 10’2″ broad jump.
His combination of quick feet, quality tackling technique, and comfort in coverage makes him an ideal modern-day linebacker. Others in the linebacker class may have been more productive but NFL success is about traits as much as opportunity. Walker has the skill set to become a dynamic starter early in his career.
Detroit Lions Grab WR Skyy Moore at 32
Every NFL team could use more playmaking help in some form. The transition to quick, shifty receivers who can win off the line of scrimmage has redefined what we look for at the position. Seemingly every mock draft has Western Michigan star receiver Skyy Moore being picked in the mid- to-late 30s but he has a good chance of going in Round 1.
He’s just under 5’10” and has blazing 4.41 speed. His explosiveness out of the slot is obvious but he can play outside for any offense with his ability to get downfield. Pairing Moore with Amon St. Brown and D.J. Chark in Detroit is especially enticing to give Jared Goff a strong variety of playmakers.
The other factor Detroit will consider at No. 32 is the fifth-year option. Taking a quarterback at 32 would make sense if they love one, but teams rarely wait when they love a guy. Instead, filling out their receiver room with a dynamic threat would help in 2022 and beyond.
Atlanta Falcons Take WR Jameson Williams
More draft rumors have come out from ProFootballTalk’s Peter King about the Falcons being in love with USC receiver Drake London. However, considering the Falcons just took tight end Kyle Pitts fourth overall last year, taking another big-bodied receiver high this year would be more limiting for the offense compared to a speedster. Alabama’s Jameson Williams would be the perfect fit.
Williams has incredible speed and agility for his 6’2″, 189-pound frame. His effortless acceleration on deep routes and ability to cut on a dime without losing speed makes him a great fit for any quarterback. Atlanta must consider this, as they currently lack a locked-in long-term quarterback prospect on the roster.
Expectations in Atlanta are also low in 2022. They can afford to sit Williams as long as he needs to recover from a torn ACL. In return, Williams can provide a potential true No. 1 threat next to Pitts in the near future.
New York Jets Draft Pass Rusher Jermaine Johnson at No. 4
After a breakout 2021 season with Florida State, pass-rusher Jermaine Johnson has established himself as a premier option for teams in the top-10. He has an NFL body already at 6’5″, 260 pounds and was the best run defender among all of the edge prospects. The New York Jets have a massive need for another pass-rusher who can handle Day 1 duties, making Johnson more attractive than a developmental pick.
Johnson isn’t as flexible or fast as Kayvon Thibodeaux, but is a much better player at the point of attack against the run. He provides true three-down value right away. And while Thibodeaux’s personality has raised question marks, Johnson’s persona appears to be a safer bet.
There’s also the health factor that New York must consider after losing Carl Lawson for the 2021 season. Johnson showed durability as he racked up 70 tackles and 11.5 sacks last year, whereas Thibodeaux missed several games with an ankle injury. Certain teams should avoid particular risks and opt for a better overall fit.
Johnson is the better overall fit for the Jets even at No. 4.
