As teams gear up for their final match-ups before the FIFA World Cup, one particular Premier League fixture could be of huge significance heading into the season interval.
This past week marked one year since Eddie Howe was appointed Newcastle United manager. 12 months later, the team is unrecognizable. At the time of his arrival there were doubts surrounding Howe’s sharpness as the ex-Bournemouth boss had been between jobs for more than a year before signing at St. James’ Park.
Newcastle are the fifth-best performing Premier League team since Howe took charge in November 2021, with 71 points from 41 games, and they have picked up more points than the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Howe, 44, was named PL Manager of the Month for October with Newcastle certain to be inside the top four at Christmas. The Magpies are currently 3rd with 27 points from a possible 42 and they have incurred just a solitary defeat this term.
Victory over Chelsea could see Newcastle within 7 points of the league leaders (and nine clear of their opposition on Saturday) when the domestic campaign goes on pause.
(Photo by Serena Taylor/Newcastle United via Getty Images)
Last season, Newcastle spent 150 days in the relegation zone – including the whole of Howe’s first three months in charge – and they were bottom of the table at Christmas. The Magpies only climbed out of the bottom three in early February this year and they haven’t looked back since then.
Howe initially struggled in the early stages of his tenure, taking only 7 points from his opening nine matches in charge. It took four league games in 2022 for Newcastle to match their points tally from the first half of last season.
On the contrary, Newcastle have earned 64 points from their last 32 matches, averaging 2 points per game. Over a 38-game season this would see them earn 76 points which is typically enough to earn UEFA Champions League qualification.
Newcastle have earned 1,9 points per game this term (on average) which is their best return at this stage of a top-flight campaign since 1996-97; that season they went on to finish as runners-up for a second consecutive year. In addition, the Magpies currently have a goal differential of +17 – their strongest GD in the Premier League since April 2003; they ended in 3rd place that season.
Two factors in Newcastle’s favour ahead of the second portion of the season are no European football this term as well as few of their players being called up to the World Cup, relative to other teams towards the top end of the table.
Newcastle are very much in the hunt for the #UCL places and show no signs of slowing down:
— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) November 8, 2022
⚫ St James’ Park is now a fortress
⚪ Rapid starters
⚫ Increased use of pressing@ChrisDHWaugh and @MarkCarey93 explore why #NUFC are firing on all cylindershttps://t.co/jj3eBcY0zQ
Newcastle have spent just six per cent of their matches in a losing position and conceded twice in the first-half of their PL matches this term. Only Man City (21) and Arsenal (18) have collected more points at home than Newcastle (15) this season. Under Howe, they have only lost twice in the league at home – to Liverpool in April and to Man City last December.
Following the takeover by the Saudi-backed consortium last year, Newcastle appointed Dan Ashworth as the club’s sporting director this past summer and the ex-Brighton technical director has big aspirations for the Magpies, with qualification for European football high on the agenda at St. James’ Park.
In January this year, the first transfer window following the takeover, Newcastle commenced with its project of attracting world-class players and they delivered with the acquisitions of Kieran Trippier and Bruno Guimarães.
Similarly to his fellow England right-backs, Trippier has been heavily involved in and around the attacking third at club level. He also scored a trademark free-kick as Newcastle battled to an enthralling 3-3 stalemate with Premier League champions Man City.
The Magpies’ regular skipper has delivered the most successful crosses (50) and created the third-most chances (32) this Premier League season, whilst Guimarães has proven himself a revelation in the Newcastle engine room. Trippier and Guimarães are both headed to the World Cup in Qatar, with England and Brazil, respectively.
Kieran Trippier leads defenders in the Premier League this season in the following statistics:
— Statman Dave (@StatmanDave) November 6, 2022
Successful crosses in open play
Passes into the penalty area
Shot-creating actions
Chances created
xAssists
Best attacking FB in the Premier League this season. 🤝🤝🤝 pic.twitter.com/re65grlAFr
This past summer Newcastle also reinforced at the back with the arrivals of England goalkeeper Nick Pope and Dutch centre-back Sven Botman. These signings have paid dividends as the team hold the joint-best defensive record in the English top flight (11 goals conceded), Pope has kept the joint-most clean sheets (six), and Botman is yet to be on the losing side with his new club.
With limitless funds from the hierarchy, Newcastle have splashed out more than £200million in the two transfer windows post-takeover. The club had an emphatic January market last time out and there is every chance they may have another in 2023.
Their marquee summer signing, Alexander Isak, is yet to truly get up and running since his £60million move from Real Sociedad. The 23-year-old Swede notched two goals in his first three matches but has since been struck down with a hamstring injury. Isak is expected to be fit when the league campaign resumes on Boxing Day.
Callum Wilson has chipped in with six league goals this campaign however no Newcastle player is as in-form as Miguel Almiron. ‘Miggy’ has scored in all but one of the Magpies’ last seven league games and he recently completed a double swoop of awards, claiming both the Premier League Player of the Month and Goal of the Month accolades for October.
The first of Almiron’s six strikes last month, an exquisite volley at Fulham, won him the prize for Goal of the Month. The Paraguayan has netted eight league goals this term and one more would see him equal his combined tallies from the previous three-and-a-half PL seasons since switching to Tyneside from Major League Soccer (MLS) team Atlanta United.
Howe and Graham Potter go head-to-head and the stakes have never been higher between them. The pair of Englishmen have met four times prior, the most recent coming earlier this season in a goalless draw between Newcastle and Potter’s former club Brighton. In the future, one of Howe or Potter could well make history as the first English manager to win the Premier League.
Chelsea are winless in their last four league encounters and defeat by Newcastle could leave the Blues as much as 5 points off the top four as the season comes to a halt.
Isak remains out while Wilson is recovering from illness. Chelsea have several absentees as England defenders Reece James and Ben Chilwell are ruled out of the World Cup due to respective knee and hamstring problems. N’Golo Kanté is also sidelined with a hamstring issue, while countryman Wesley Fofana has a knee injury lay-off.
Newcastle are 2.25 to win; Chelsea are 3.20 to win; 3.40 for a draw. (Bet365)
