WNBABasketball

WNBA Rookie of the Year: The Contradiction Between Team Record and Double-Doubles for Angel Reese

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar12/07/2024 - 03:12 pm
(Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images)

The 2024 WNBA regular season is just over halfway complete, and it is clear that the Rookie of the Year award will come down to Indiana Fever guard Caitlin Clark and Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese. They have easily been the two best rookies in their class and have set numerous WNBA records already.

It is fitting this quickly became a professional rivalry since it started in college when Reese’s LSU team defeated Clark’s Iowa team for the 2023 national title. Clark was the National Player of the Year, but Reese’s superior team won the title.

According to some, we could see a repeat of this dynamic for the WNBA’s Rookie of the Year award. While Clark continues to be a strong favorite at the sportsbooks – she is -750 (implied chance of 88.2%) at DraftKings – to win the award, many in the media have been pushing for Reese to take home the top rookie honor instead.

ESPN’s latest WNBA rookie rankings, which are thankfully supported by real analytics instead of best pre-game outfits, have Reese taking over the top spot from Clark.

The driving force behind this has been Reese’s streak of 15 double-doubles, which is not only a rookie record, but it is the longest streak by any player in WNBA history. The previous record holder was the great Candace Parker, who had 12 straight double-doubles between the 2009 and 2010 seasons

Clark’s fatigue in the media was always possible as Clark was expected to be great as the No. 1 overall pick. The Fever got off to a bad 0-5 start, but things have picked up for Clark and the team ever since. On Saturday, Clark recorded the first-ever triple-double by a rookie in the WNBA when she led a comeback win against the New York Liberty, who had a league-best 17-3 record at the time.

Speaking of team records, that’s where things blew up with the Rookie of the Year debate last week. On ESPN, analyst Monica McNutt said that “My rookie of the year is going to go based on the standings because I think that is how you have the opportunity to measure impact.” With the Sky (7-11 at the time) having a slight edge over the Fever (8-13) in record, that is why she picked Reese to win Rookie of the Year.

That segment did not go over well with fans, but they weren’t wrong for rejecting the logic there. While team record is absolutely a crucial factor in voting for the Most Valuable Player award, which is likely to go to A’ja Wilson of the Las Vegas Aces for the third time, it has really never been a prerequisite for Rookie of the Year.

Or has it?

Let’s examine the role that team record has played (or hasn’t played) in Rookie of the Year voting in the WNBA, and let’s also put this double-double streak under the microscope for Reese.

You might be surprised to learn that there is a clear contradiction between using the double-double streak and team record for this Rookie of the Year battle.

Does Team Record Matter for WNBA Rookie of the Year Award Winners?

One star player can have a huge impact on a basketball team. We see it all the time at every level of the game. After all, they are 20% of the team when they’re on the court, and they are often relied on in a high-usage role like being the primary scorer, primary defender and rebounder, top playmaker, or some combo of those things.

However basketball players are still susceptible to rookie struggles that most athletes face when they join professional teams. It usually takes time to adjust and succeed against the best competition in the world.

This is true for most highly-touted prospects as well. Those are the players who end up going No. 1 (or close to) in drafts like Clark did this year, and that usually means you end up on the worst team in the league – unless you’re Caleb Williams.

But every generational talent from Peyton Manning (3-13 on the 1998 Colts) to LeBron James (35-47 on the 2003-04 Cavaliers) to Sidney Crosby (22-46-14 on the 2005-06 Penguins) played for a losing team that didn’t sniff the playoffs in their rookie seasons. Success came soon after though.

Even in the NBA last year, Victor Wembanyama was the most-hyped basketball prospect in 20 years since LeBron. He had an impressive rookie season with 21.4 points, and 10.6 rebounds, and he led the NBA with 3.6 blocks per game. He won the Rookie of the Year award as he was expected to do.

Did anyone care that Wemby’s Spurs finished 22-60 for the second year in a row, or that his main competition (Chet Holmgren) played for the No. 1 seed in Oklahoma City (57-25)?

No, Wembanyama received all 99 first-place votes in winning Rookie of the Year over Holmgren, who was less impressive statistically.

Can the team record carry more weight if the stats are close? That makes sense. In 2003-04, LeBron still won the Rookie of the Year award over Carmelo Anthony, but it was closer with James getting 78 first-place votes to 40 for Anthony, who led Denver to a 43-39 record and playoff appearance.

But that’s the NBA. What about the WNBA?

Team Records for Past WNBA Rookie of the Year Winners.

The WNBA Rookie of the Year award has been given out 26 times since 1998. There was no such award in the league’s inaugural 1997 season. Here are some facts about the 26 winners:

  • Exactly half of the winners (13 of 26) played for a team that did not make the playoffs that season.
  • Of the 26 winners, nine played for a winning team (34.6%), three played for a .500 team, and 14 played for a team with a losing record (53.8%).
  • The winners played for teams with an average win percentage of 49%.
  • The winners with the best team records were Maya Moore (27-7 on the 2011 Minnesota Lynx) and Cheryl Ford (25-9 on the 2003 Detroit Shock). Both won the championship that year.
  • The winners with the worst team records were Seimone Augustus (10-24 on the 2006 Minnesota Lynx) and Jewell Loyd (10-24 on the 2015 Seattle Storm).
  • Clark’s teammate Aliyah Boston, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft, won the Rookie of the Year last year on an Indiana team that finished 13-27 (.325), the third-worst record of any winner of this award.

So, being on a good team has generally not mattered for this award. Even when Moore and Ford (led her team in rebounding) won the award on championship-winning teams, they were both the third-leading scorer on their team instead of the main catalyst to success.

Boston received all 60 votes for Rookie of the Year last season despite Indiana’s 13-27 record. No other rookie was really close to her statistically. She also helped the Fever approve on their abysmal 5-31 record, which is another factor that deserves consideration here.

Can Measure Impact in Multiple Ways

When many top rookies go to bad teams, it feels counterintuitive to judge them on their team’s record that first year. In the case of Clark and Reese, it really could go down to the wire too given that Clark’s Fever are currently 9-14 and the Sky are 9-13.

The Sky have to play the Liberty (18-4) again this Saturday, the team they just lost decisively to on Thursday night. They could easily be tied with 9-14 records through 23 games.

Keep in mind Clark’s team is 2-1 against Reese’s team this season, and they will meet one more time on August 30. At the rate things are going, some are going to push the winner of that game as the Rookie of the Year, but let’s not think about that level of silliness yet.

It feels worth pointing out that the Fever are 9-14 and favored to go over 16.5 wins at sportsbooks right now. That would be significant for a team that has won 25% of its games since 2017, easily the lowest rate in the WNBA in that time. The Fever have not won 17 games since 2016 when they finished 17-17, the last time they made the playoff as well.

This year’s team may not finish .500, but after going 5-31 and 13-27 the previous two years, a record of 17-23 or better would be quality stuff for Clark and company.

As for the Sky, they are not favored to top last year’s record, which was 18-22, which marked the team’s fifth-straight playoff appearance. The Sky won the WNBA Finals in 2021, though Reese is not playing with the stars of that championship team.

But she did inherit a team with a better record last year, and the impact the rookies are having relative to that should also be taken into consideration.

At the end of the season, it could be that Clark has led Indiana to its best season since 2016 and Reese has led Chicago to its worst season since 2018.

This is why it’s not a good idea to say your vote will be tied to whoever finishes with the best record. There are more things to consider than that.

The Dubious Nature of Angel Reese’s Double-Doubles Streak

We mentioned in the beginning that Angel Reese’s 15-game streak with a double-double is fueling the push for her as the top rookie this season. With each game, she extends the record, and it has become the defining narrative of her and her team’s season.

In Thursday’s 91-76 loss to the Liberty, the headlines all mention Reese’s streak extending to 15 games, brushing over the 15-point loss in the process.

If your WNBA Rookie of the Year vote is dependent on team record and a double-double streak, what happens when you realize that Reese’s team is only 6-9 during this 15-game streak?

That’s the contradiction we need to figure out here. But before we get into Reese’s season, let’s analyze the data on all double-doubles in WNBA history.

The History of Double-Doubles in the WNBA

Since 1997 (including playoffs), there have been just over 6,200 WNBA games. With seasons extending to 40 games per team last year, there were more double-doubles than ever with 332 last season, which means you’ll see an average of 1.28 double-doubles per game played.

There have now been over 5,000 double-doubles in WNBA history, and players who record one go on to win the game 62.2% of the time.

So, double-doubles are generally good things for your team when a player has one, but they are not all created equally. Some are more helpful than others, and some types are certainly rarer than others.

For instance, Brittney Griner is the only WNBA player to ever record a double-double with 11 blocks instead of the traditional rebounds or assists. The craziest part is she did it twice in back-to-back seasons in 2014 and 2015.

In playing for the 2003 Sacramento Monarchs, Ticha Penicheiro recorded the only double-double with 11 assists and 10 steals in a victory. She scored 1 point, so that’s the most interesting way anyone’s ever done a double-double in WNBA history.

There have also been five games where a player recorded a double-double with only rebounds and assists, including twice by Alyssa Thomas of the Connecticut Sun. She did it this season against Atlanta too.

Every other double-double has been achieved the normal way with points and rebounds or points and assists. But you might be surprised at the difference in frequency between these, and also the difference in team success:

  • Of the 5,089 double-doubles in WNBA history, 91.3% of them have been achieved with a minimum of 10 points and 10 rebounds (4,645 total).
  • Of the 5,089 double-doubles in WNBA history, 7.8% of them have been achieved with a minimum of 10 points and 10 assists (398 total).
  • Players who record a double-double with points and rebounds win 61.1% of their games.
  • Players who record a double-double with points and assists win 73.1% of their games.

It is not surprising to see rebounds make up the majority of double-doubles, but 91.3% of them was still a surprisingly huge share in the WNBA.

For those curious, there have been 38 triple-doubles in WNBA history, and those players had a game record of 29-9 (.763).

That includes Clark’s victory against New York, the first ever triple-double by a rookie in WNBA history. She had 19 points, 12 rebounds, and 13 assists in a comeback win last Saturday.

This debate about rebounds and assists also ties directly into Clark, Reese, and the Rookie of the Year award.

  • Clark’s 7.6 assists per game are on pace to break the WNBA rookie record, held by Ticha Penicheiro (7.5 in 1998).
  • Reese’s 11.9 rebounds per game are on pace to break the WNBA rookie record, held by Tina Charles (11.7 in 2010).

But given the infrequency and higher winning percentage (12 percentage points better), you could argue a double-double with assists is more valuable than one with rebounds.

On Wednesday against Washington, Clark had the first game in WNBA history with at least 29 points and 13 assists. It was her third game this season with at least 17 points and 13 assists, which is also already a single-season record (all players; not just rookies).

Reese leads all 2024 WNBA players with 16 double-doubles, and all 16 have been of the points and rebounds variety. Clark has seven double-doubles, and two of them were achieved with double-digit rebounds. The rest were assists driven.

Clark has four straight double-doubles with assists. The only other player in WNBA history to do that is Courtney Vandersloot, who holds the record at six games.

Clark’s team also has a winning record (4-3) when she has a double-double while Reese’s does not (6-10). That seems worth exploring.

Reese’s Double-Doubles Do Not Lead to Many Wins for Chicago

Generally speaking, double-double records or streaks do not get a lot of attention in basketball. This one for Reese may generate more discussion than any, but in the NBA, few ever mention that the legendary Wilt Chamberlain did it 227 games in a row in 1964-67. That’s almost as impressive as his 100-point game when you consider no other player has reached 100 straight double-doubles except Chamberlain himself. He also had a 220-game streak in 1960-63 according to Basketball Reference. He was one of a kind.

The longest double-double streaks in the NBA since the ABA merger in the 1970s belong to Kevin Love (53 games in 2010-11) and Domantas Sabonis (61 games in 2023-24). That means Sabonis just had the longest double-double streak since the Moon landing, and I don’t remember hearing a peep about it this past spring.

But to the WNBA’s credit, its games are 40 minutes instead of 48, and Reese definitely has the record at 15 games despite only being a rookie. The problem is why is her team only 6-9 during this streak and 6-10 (.375) overall when she has a double-double? Remember, double-doubles win 62.2% of games and 61.1% when it’s points and rebounds.

Of the 78 players with at least 15 career double-doubles in the WNBA, Reese’s 6-10 (.375) record is tied for the second-worst winning percentage. Monique Billings is also 6-10, and the only player lower is Myisha Hines-Allen at 6-11 (.353). All three are active in 2024.

There are only six players who won at least 80% of their games with a double-double, and the list includes some of the biggest names in WNBA history:

  • Chelsea Gray, 19-0 (1.000)
  • Diana Taurasi, 25-1 (.962)
  • Sheryl Swoopes, 20-2 (.909)
  • Maya Moore, 31-6 (.838)
  • DeLisha Milton-Jones, 17-4 (.810)
  • A’Ja Wilson, 85-21 (.802)

If you look at the top 20 players with the most double-doubles in WNBA history, all 20 won at least 57.1% of their games when they had one.

Do rookies win less frequently with a double-double? Yes, their win rate drops to 55.3%. But that still makes Reese stand out in a way that isn’t great.

With 18 games left, Reese (16) has an outside shot at the single-season WNBA record for double-doubles, which is 28 games by Alyssa Thomas in 2022-23. But the record Reese is more likely to shatter is the most losses with a double-double in a season. She has 10 and the record is 11, held by a few players.

Streaks that come during losing periods are practically never celebrated in sports, so that adds some weird intrigue to what we are seeing with Reese.

Why Reese’s Double-Doubles Streak Hasn’t Produced More Wins

Reese’s double-double streak has drawn attention away from her flaws, namely her poor shooting this season.

Despite her average shot coming from 5.1 feet away from the basket (Clark is 19.9 feet; one of the deepest ranges), Reese’s True Shooting Percentage (TS%) is .484, which ranks 62nd among 73 players this season with at least 100 field goal attempts. Clark (.577) ranks 15th in TS%, which adjusts for 2-point shots, 3-point shots, and free throws.

Reese is shooting 41.7% from 2-point territory, the third-lowest 2P% among players with at least 200 shot attempts this year. Clark shoots 50.5% from 2 and has improved to 34.2% from 3-point territory, which is what she was known best for in college.

Reese’s best strength is easily rebounding. Her impressive on-off splits – Chicago is +19.1 in Net Rating with her on the court – are almost entirely driven by her rebounding, including her league-high 104 offensive rebounds, which is 39 more than the next closest player.

But you may have seen the viral tweets online about Reese continuously missing short shots at the basket and getting several offensive rebounds before she finally finishes (or doesn’t). That first link is doctored, but it’s not that far off from what really happened on June 30 against Minnesota, a 70-62 loss for Chicago.

Reese definitely needs to get much better at finishing near the basket. While she’d lose out on some boards, she’d score more points, her FG% would increase, and the team would be all the better for it. Right now, she leads all WNBA players with 50 of her shots getting blocked.

You can still credit her for getting the offensive boards, but this 15-game double-double streak has already been kept alive at least six times by what is simply not good basketball play from her, and that’s what is starting to annoy fans about the constant coverage of it.

June 4 vs. Liberty (Game #1): The streak began in a game where Reese had 13 points and 10 rebounds. Down 82-71 with 3 minutes left, Reese grabbed 2 offensive rebounds to get to 10 boards, missed both shots and then was ejected on the other end after a double technical foul. Her team lost by 13 points.

June 12 vs. Sun (Game #4): Reese shot well to score 20 points, but she was stuck on 9 rebounds in the closing seconds. Down 83-75, she got her 10th rebound with 3 seconds left on a missed teammate shot, then she missed a little hook shot to end the game. Her team lost by 8 points.

June 30 vs. Lynx (Game #10): Reese finished this game with 16 rebounds, but shooting was a big problem as she was 4-of-16 from the field for 10 points. Just in the last 130 seconds alone, she had multiple miss-rebound-miss moments, finally scored a basket on a third try, then somehow drew a foul in the closing seconds while trailing 70-61. She made a free throw to get her 10th point, missed the second, and lost 70-62.

July 5 vs. Storm (Game #12): Reese tied the record streak at 12 games by getting her 10th rebound with 2:12 left. It came on her own miss after she was blocked, then she stepped out of bounds to turn the ball over. She did not get another rebound in the game. After Seattle drew within 84-82, Reese redeemed herself by going 4-for-4 at the free throw line to win 88-84.

July 10 vs. Dream (Game #14): Reese finished with 11 points and 13 rebounds, but the ending was one of the most egregious examples of record chasing you’ll ever see. Reese had 9 points and her team was leading 76-69. Atlanta missed a shot with 18 seconds left, and this is usually where teams just dribble it out. But Reese called for the ball, drew a weak foul, and made both of her free throws to extend the streak by getting to double-digit points. That was cheap to say the least.

July 11 vs. Liberty (Game #15): Reese only had 5 rebounds going into the fourth quarter. Center Kamilla Cardoso only played 2:09 in the final quarter, giving Reese an advantage to get rebounds even though she shot poorly in the game (5-of-17) while Cardoso was 4-of-5. Down 81-72 with just over 3 minutes left, Reese got her 8th and 9th rebounds on the offensive end, then proceeded to miss both shots. Her 10th and final rebound to extend the streak came at 2:12, and she had the ball stolen from her immediately after it. Her team lost 91-76.

As it turns out, rebounding and continuing to miss, shooting free throws with the game in the bag, and turning the ball over late while trailing actually don’t help your team that much on the scoreboard.

Based on the last week, this streak is running on fumes. We’ll see where she takes it, if she gets better at finishing as the season goes on, and what arguments people come up with next for Rookie of the Year.

Until further notice, it is Clark’s award to lose.

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar12/07/2024 - 03:12 pm