NFL

Washington Commanders 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar20/08/2024 - 11:50 am
MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - AUGUST 17: Jayden Daniels #5 of the Washington Commanders looks to pass against the Miami Dolphins during the first quarter of a preseason game at Hard Rock Stadium on August 17, 2024 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

If any NFL team needs a hard reset, it is the Washington Commanders. Their fans haven’t seen this team make the playoffs with a winning record since 2015. They haven’t seen a 10-win season since 2012, they haven’t won a playoff game since 2005, and they are the only NFL team that hasn’t experienced an 11-win season since the salary cap began in 1994.

The truth is all of those streaks are likely to continue in 2024 with the Eagles and Cowboys still heavily favored in the NFC East over Washington.

But if there is soon a turnaround, we know it started this year.

Sure, on paper, the Commanders replaced their retread defensive coach (Ron Rivera) with a retread defensive coach (Dan Quinn), and they drafted an athletic quarterback (Jayden Daniels) who offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury can barely elevate by calling horizontal passes on early downs like he did in Arizona with Kyler Murray.

Too harsh? Let’s try the optimistic view.

The Commanders hired a coach who led a dominant defense to a Super Bowl win with the 2013 Seahawks, then had the 2016 Falcons in the Super Bowl before a collapse that was largely Kyle Shanahan calling pass plays on 3rd-and-short. Quinn had a winning record in Atlanta, did a great job with the Dallas defense the last three years, and some of the best coaching jobs in NFL history like Bill Belichick in New England and Andy Reid in Kansas City were retread hires getting their second shot.

But you need a quarterback to make this work, and many experts had Jayden Daniels as the No. 2 quarterback prospect in this class. He just won the Heisman Trophy at LSU with video game numbers too.

Is that better? Time will tell eventually which way this goes. At the very least, it’s a way better plan than last year’s absurdity of thinking Sam Howell, who proved to be a sack machine, would be Eric Bieniemy’s Patrick Mahomes avatar, and that a Jack Del Rio-coached defense was going to hang in there. The end result: 4-13 and everyone fired or traded.

On to the next era in Washington D.C. We look back at the 4-13 finish, the key offseason changes, the concerns for Daniels in a Kingsbury offense, and the best Commanders bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: They Realize Sam Howell Isn’t Mahomes, Right?  

It was always a bold plan to go into a season with a fifth-round quarterback with one start as a rookie as your top quarterback. While offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy still didn’t get the head coaching job he wanted, he thought he could get there if he left the Chiefs and proved his worth with a quarterback like Howell in Washington.

The end results were not pretty, and having arguably the worst defense in the whole NFL only exacerbated the problems as the Commanders did not win another game after a 4-5 start.

The Offense: Sack Attack

It’s always fun to remember when a team started 2-0 before finishing 4-13. The Commanders had comeback wins against the Cardinals and Broncos to start the season. Howell seemed to pick up where he left off in a good preseason showing in August, but the sacks were soon a big problem.

Howell took 40 sacks by Week 7, which put him on pace to shatter the single-season record. The good news is he eventually cut that number down. The bad news is his passing efficiency also sunk like a rock, and he was benched a couple of times late in the year for Jacoby Brissett, who immediately moved the offense better.

Howell finished with 21 interceptions and 65 sacks as he threw the most passes in the NFL (612) last year. It’s the first season in NFL history where a quarterback threw at least 20 interceptions and took 65 sacks, so that’s not good.

Bieniemy came over from the Chiefs where they loved to throw the ball and put it in Mahomes’ hands as much as possible. But Howell isn’t Mahomes, and they certainly didn’t have a Travis Kelce at tight end either.

Howell did very well in both games against the Eagles despite the losses. That’s the defense’s fault for giving up so many points, but for about 10 weeks, Howell at least looked the part of something salvageable at quarterback if he could just get the sacks under control.

But after the close loss against Seattle, something changed, and Howell finished the season in horrible fashion: 0-7 record, 57.7% completions, 5.41 yards per attempt, 4 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and a 55.6 passer rating.

Howell faced some good defenses in this run like the Jets, Cowboys, and 49ers, but those are still inexcusable numbers in 2023. There was a 3-game stretch where Howell completed 40.8% of his passes (29 of 71), something that hasn’t happened in the NFL since Blaine Gabbert’s rookie season in 2011 for the Jaguars.

A terrible defense did not help Howell. There were only four games all season where the Commanders did not allow at least 27 points.

The Defense: Turning Into Dust

Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio hasn’t always had terrible results in his long career. But when things are going poorly, it’s incredible how his defenses can generate no pass rush and leave receivers completely wide open. Pick something to be decent at.

The Commanders had the worst pressure rate (16.8%) in the NFL according to Pro Football Reference. With an unimpressive secondary too, no matter they allowed a league-high 30.5 points per game. The Commanders also allowed 39 touchdown passes, tied for the third most in a season in NFL history. Washington allowed 8 touchdown passes of 50-plus yards, twice as many as the next closest defense in 2023.

Offense or defense, passing or running, the Commanders were weak to terrible in all four phases in 2023.

Washington Commanders Offseason Review

The Commanders are one of two NFL teams this year to replace their head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback. The Falcons also did it. The Patriots sort of did it too by titles, but new head coach Jerod Mayo and defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington were just promoted from last year’s staff.

A lot of necessary changes in Washington.

New Coach: Dan Quinn Tasked with Fixing This Defensive Mess

We touched on Quinn in the intro as he gets his second shot as a head coach. A few weeks ago in the Seattle preview, for Mike Macdonald we looked at the lack of success of first-time defensive coaches hired in the NFL recently. Quinn’s hiring in Atlanta in 2015 would actually have been one of the most successful with his Super Bowl appearance in 2016 and another playoff appearance in 2017.

But what about retreads? Here are the last 10 examples of defensive coaches getting another shot, and the results haven’t been great:

  • Todd Bowles, 2022 Buccaneers: He’s won back-to-back division titles but also has a .500 record (17-17) and is 1-2 in the playoffs so far.
  • Dennis Allen, 2022 Saints: Another NFC South promotion, Allen has yet to take the Saints to the playoffs and is 16-18.
  • Lovie Smith, 2022 Texans: He was fired after a 3-13-1 season.
  • Ron Rivera, 2020 Washington: Only made the playoffs with a 7-win team in 2020 and finished 26-40-1 (.396).
  • Rex Ryan, 2015 Bills: Finished 15-16 and fired late in his second season.
  • John Fox, 2015 Bears: Finished 14-34 and fired after three losing years.
  • Jack Del Rio, 2015 Raiders: Finished 25-23 and had a 12-4 season in 2016, but his only winning season was riding Derek Carr to a wild number of fourth-quarter comebacks.
  • Lovie Smith, 2014 Buccaneers: He was 8-24 in two seasons before he was fired.
  • Romeo Crennel, 2012 Chiefs: An ill-advised in-house promotion, Crennel was fired after a 2-14 season.
  • Jeff Fisher, 2012 Rams: Was on his way to a fifth-straight losing season before the Rams finally fired him in 2016.

That is not good when the only 10-win season in a sample of 10 coaches belongs to Jack Del Rio.

Quinn was not the most inspiring hire, but to his credit, his Dallas defense was elite three years in a row, including the impressive feat of leading the league in takeaways in back-to-back years in 2021-22.

Quinn brought Joe Whitt Jr. from Dallas with him to be his defensive coordinator in Washington after Whitt coached the defensive backs for him. But the duo has a lot of work to do with a defense that traded away Chase Young and Montez Sweat last season. Washington’s best pass rusher this year might be defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. That’s a big step down in coming from a defense that had Micah Parsons on the edge.

Veteran linebacker Bobby Wagner joins the defense, and he knows Quinn from their days in Seattle. But that’s a temporary fix. The Commanders have to figure out who their building blocks are in this defense. They used a high second-round pick on Illinois defensive tackle Jer’Zhan Newton, another piece to go with Allen up front.

They also used a second-round pick on the secondary with Michigan corner Mike Sainristil. After the work Quinn and Whitt did in Dallas with developing corners like Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland into pick magnets, maybe they can do something with Sainristil and these young defensive backs.

The good news is there’s nowhere to go but up on defense from 2023 for this team. But it’s going to take another offseason or two to get things into great shape on this side of the ball.

As for the offense, well that’s going to rest more with the rookie and new offensive coordinator after the team fired Bieniemy and traded Howell to Seattle.

This Year’s Narrative: Can Kliff Kingsbury Learn from His Mistakes with Arizona?

Quinn is not the only coach looking for another chance in Washington this year. The Commanders had to go a whole new direction on offense. They hired Kliff Kingsbury as the new offensive coordinator after he spent last year as an offensive analyst with USC.

Of course, Kingsbury was 28-37-1 (.432) as the head coach of the Cardinals in 2019-22, coming into the league with Kyler Murray as his No. 1 pick at quarterback. Outside of that 7-0 start in 2021, it didn’t go that well even though Murray technically won Offensive Rookie of the Year in a weak 2019 offensive rookie class.

But that experience gives him some credibility in working with a scramble-ready quarterback like rookie Jayden Daniels, but we need to see some real improvement after things were so stagnant in four years in Arizona. Maybe the rumors of Murray loving video games too much had some merit, or maybe Kingsbury just isn’t that innovative of an offensive coach. Kingsbury is the guy who had a losing record at Texas Tech with Patrick Mahomes scoring a ton of points as his quarterback.

The good news is Kingsbury doesn’t have to worry about the defense since he’s not the head coach. Leave that to Quinn. The other good news is the sacks should come down this year without Howell there.

But is it going to come at the expense of too many horizontal passes and short throws on early downs that make things difficult on the offense like we have seen in Arizona with Kingsbury? Is he going to keep using his receivers in very uncreative ways? It was pointed out by Ian Hartitz that No. 1 receiver Terry McLaurin lined up at left outside wide receiver on 28-of-29 preseason snaps this year. That led to the posting of an old receiving chart for a DeAndre Hopkins game on the 2020 Cardinals, and the lack of route variation was laughable and embarrassing.

Many of the best passing games move their best receiver around all over the field, including putting them in the slot. McLaurin is still clearly the best wideout in Washington, but we’ll keep an eye on how he’s used this year.

What about the offensive line that was facing a lot of heat with Howell taking those 65 sacks last year? First, a quarterback has a lot to do with the sacks taken. Brissett didn’t take any sacks on 23 passes, and Howell only took 25 in the last 10 games, so it was already coming down.

But the Commanders have a new left tackle in third-round rookie Brandon Coleman. Big test for him in a conference with some great edge rushers. Nick Allegretti is a new left guard that comes over from Kansas City where he had some solid spot-duty starts as he was mostly a reserve (74 games played, 13 starts). Hopefully, this will go better than last year when they brought right tackle Andrew Wylie over from the Chiefs. He’s still there this year. The Commanders were also able to poach center Tyler Biadasz from Dallas. He made the Pro Bowl in 2022 and has 53 career starts, but he also was playing in a much better offense then.

We’ll see how it goes, but Coleman’s rookie performance at left tackle will likely determine if this is a terrible offensive line again or a serviceable one. But it’s unlikely to be a top-tier unit in 2024 with three new starters.

Daniels Gets the Week 1 Start

On Monday, Daniels was officially named the team’s starting quarterback for Week 1, meaning the Washington franchise will have a different Week 1 starter for the eighth year in a row. Let’s hope this one ends that streak in 2025 and lasts a long time.

What are the concerns with Daniels? He played five years at Arizona State and LSU, but his 2023 stats in his Heisman year were so otherworldly and look like an outlier compared to the rest of his career. You get worried about the one-year-wonder tag in this case.

But in 2023 at LSU, Daniels completed 72.2% of his passes, averaged 11.7 yards per attempt (good lord), and threw 40 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. He also rushed for 1,134 yards, averaged 8.4 yards per rush, and scored 10 touchdowns on the ground. Keep in mind sacks are included in that rushing line. No wonder LSU averaged a nation-best 45.5 points per game last year.

The numbers are just absolutely ridiculous, and granted, he had a pair of first-round wideouts also get drafted this year in Malik Nabers (Giants) and Brian Thomas Jr. (Jaguars). You could argue Daniels is downgrading with the NFL talent around him this year as Brian Robinson still figures to be the leading rusher, Austin Ekeler comes over as the receiving back to replace Antonio Gibson, and they may seriously start Zach Ertz at tight end in 2024 (turns 34 this year). The team also drafted tight end Ben Sinnott in the second round.

The prospect of throwing up 50/50 balls for McLaurin and way too many swing passes and checkdowns to Ekeler doesn’t sound like the most efficient offense in the league by any means. But we’ll see what Daniels can do after a preseason where he didn’t look overwhelmed.

Oddly enough, the best play Daniels may have made in the preseason was his first completion, a 40-yard bomb that was placed perfectly against the Jets.

But we’ll see how many of those shots Kingsbury is comfortable with letting the rookie attempt. The other concern for Daniels is his smaller frame and running style. He’s 6’4” and 210 pounds, so he’s not built like Cam Newton or Josh Allen. In college, Daniels has some comical running highlights – they edited him with Looney Tunes sounds – where he takes huge hits that he’ll need to avoid in the NFL if he’s going to have a long career.

Selling Washington fans on a lankier Robert Griffin III may be tough, but if he can avoid the injuries that RGIII had that derailed his career, then maybe this can work out. But with the way Caleb Williams has looked in Chicago and the weapons he has, I wouldn’t count on a repeat of Kingsbury coaching a quarterback to an Offensive Rookie of the Year award this season.

Best Bets for the 2024 Commanders

Moment of truth time. We already picked the Giants to finish under 6.5 wins despite a split with Washington this year. The Commanders also have a line of 6.5 wins, but sportsbooks are slightly favoring the over for them.

As always, we had to check the schedule. Where are the potential wins for this team? Remember, every team Washington beat last year had a losing record, and Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott have been having a good time piling up stats against them in those division games.

  • A trip to Tampa Bay in Week 1 is winnable, but road debuts for rookie quarterbacks are usually rough, and coach Todd Bowles is a master disguiser of the blitz.
  • Hosting the Giants in Week 2 could be the best opportunity all year for this team to win a division game after getting swept by New York a year ago.
  • A trip to Arizona in Week 4 is winnable if Kingsbury brings his best stuff to show up his former employer, and if Quinn’s defense gets after Murray enough.
  • The Commanders host the Panthers and Bears in Weeks 7-8, two NFC teams that may be better suited for success in 2024 than this team is, but maybe they can steal one of those games.
  • The Steelers are usually unable to blow away anyone, so a road game against a rookie quarterback sounds like the perfect spot for a Mike Tomlin letdown loss.
  • Week 13 sees Tennessee in town, and that’s another team that is possibly further along with its young quarterback development (Will Levis) than the Commanders will be. But this is a possible win.
  • Tough finish after a late bye with the Saints, Eagles, Falcons, and on the road in Dallas to end the season.

Quinn is someone I still have trust issues with in holding a lead, and it goes beyond 28-3 in Super Bowl LI. He just doesn’t like to make aggressive calls in those moments and will watch a quarterback dink his way down the field against a prevent to win the game. The turnovers and sacks are also unlikely to be there this year with the lack of weapons and experience at edge rusher and defensive back.

Offensively, it will be fun to see how Daniels plays this year, but it feels like we have a clear ceiling on how good it can be right away with Kingsbury calling the plays and the lack of great weapons after McLaurin.

Even in giving Washington some wins over teams I feel will be better this year like the Panthers and Titans, it’s still hard to come up with a better record than 6-11 for this team. Give us the under, and hopefully there will be enough flashes that things are moving in the right direction for 2025.

NFL Pick: Washington Commanders under 6.5 wins (+110 at DraftKings)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar20/08/2024 - 11:50 am