With one more round of games left in the 2024 Euro group stage, the tournament has been nothing short of drama and heartbreak. The match between Italy and Croatia perfectly encompasses the unpredictability and excitement of the Euros. Veteran captain Luka Modric, leading the Croatian squad, scored a goal at the 55-minute mark against Italy, making him the oldest goalscorer in the Euros’ history.
However, just when it seemed Modric had sealed the game for Croatia and its spot in the round of 16, Mattia Zaccagni of Italy scored in the 98th minute, securing Italy’s place in the next round. While Croatia still has a chance to advance in the Euro, this looks like Modric’s last major tournament appearance for his country.
Let’s look at every group’s standings and implications for the next round in Euro 2024.
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Group A
In Group A, Germany and Switzerland have secured spots in the round of 16, with five and seven points, respectively. Germany will play the second-place team of Group C in the round of 16, while Switzerland will face the second-place team in Group B. Hungary has a chance to advance to the next round but needs game outcomes to swing their way. After not recording a win in the group stage, Scotland will not advance.
Group B
After a dramatic game against Croatia, second-place Italy is set to advance to the next round alongside first-place Spain. With two points as a third-place team, Croatia’s status for the next round remains in the air. After not recording a win in all of its group-stage games, Albania has been eliminated from the knockout rounds.
Group C
Nothing is set in stone yet for Group C. If England beats Slovenia in their next game, it will be first in the group. If England loses to Slovenia, it will still advance to the next round as one of the top four third-place teams. If England’s next match ends in a draw, Denmark could overtake them if they beat Serbia by two goals.
If Denmark beats Serbia, it will ensure its spot in the round of 16. If Denmark’s games end in a draw, it will take second place if England beats Slovenia. However, if Denmark and Slovenia’s games end in a draw, second place will be determined by the number of goals scored.
If Slovenia defeats England, it will advance to the next round. However, a draw would put it in second place if Denmark also draws and Slovenia has more goals scored.
Serbia must beat Denmark to advance. If Serbia wins and Slovenia loses to England, Slovenia will advance to the second-place spot.
Group D
The Netherlands and France are guaranteed spots in the next round, reaching four points each. If the Netherlands beats Austria, they are guaranteed a spot in the top two. They will reach first place in the group if they beat Austria and score more goals than France in its game against Poland. With Poland already eliminated, the lowest the Netherlands can place is third.
France can earn first place in the group if it beats Poland and the Netherlands loses to Austria. However, France can confirm its spot in the top two by just beating Poland. If France and the Netherlands win their games, goal difference will decide first place.
Austria can finish in the top two in the group if it beats the Netherlands. It can still advance to the next round if it loses, but it can’t be by four or more goals.
Poland was the first country to be eliminated this year and can’t advance, no matter the results.
Group E is a bloodbath, with all teams tied at three points each. Whichever teams win, they will advance. But let’s go over the other more confusing scenarios.
If Romania loses and Belgium–Ukraine ends in a draw, Romania will be eliminated by finishing in fourth place. If Romania loses but Belgium-Ukraine ends with a victor, Romania will finish third if Belgium wins and fourth if Ukraine wins.
Belgium will advance if they beat Ukraine and will be in first place in the group if Romania beats Slovakia or the match ends in a draw. Belgium will advance if both its game and the other end in a draw, and it would finish second place with a draw in their game and a winner in Romania vs. Slovakia.
If Slovakia beats Romania, it will advance to the next round. Slovakia will be in third place if their game ends in a draw and if they and Belgium don’t win. To finish fourth place, Slovakia would have to lose, and Belgium would have to win.
If Ukraine beats Belgium, it will advance to the next round. A draw would put Ukraine in third place, but only if there is a winner in the Romania vs. Slovakia game. If all the teams in the group end with four points, Ukraine would go out due to goal difference. If Ukraine loses, it could get third place, but only if Romania beats Slovakia.
With six points through two games, Portugal has already secured their spot in the round of 16.
Turkey can advance to the next round if it beats the Czech Republic. If Turkey’s game ends in a draw and Portugal beats Georgia, Turkey will finish in second place. Turkey will be eliminated if it loses to the Czech Republic and Portugal loses to Georgia. However, Turkey will finish third if it loses and Portugal wins.
The Czech Republic must win its next game against Turkey if it wants to advance. If it wins and tops Georgia’s result, it will finish third in the group. If Georgia wins and the Czech Republic’s game ends in a draw or loss, it will not advance. If it loses or draws and Georgia matches the result of the game, goal difference will be the factor that determines third place.
Georgia has to beat Portugal. However, two points may not be enough. If Georgia and the Czech Republic both win their games, the goal difference currently favors the Czech Republic. If Georgia wins and Turkey either wins or draws, Georgia would be third place in the group. If Georgia doesn’t win but the Czech Republic loses by more goals, they could be third. However, this scenario is doubtful to be enough to advance.
Looking Ahead to Euro Knock-Out Rounds
As of now, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, and Slovenia are advancing to the round of 16 through the third-place group.
With the group stage concluding, some teams will be fighting for a spot in the round of 16, while some have already secured the chance to advance. The final round of group stage games are sure to be entertaining, hopefully setting up exciting and memorable knock-out rounds.
