The Golden State Warrios dynasty target another NBA ring

By Scott Kacsmar

The 2023 NBA playoffs start Saturday, and the Golden State Warriors are the defending champions. But they are in an unusual position as the No. 6 seed with a 44-38 record, meaning they will open on the road against the No. 3 Kings (48-34).

Of course, it has been an unusual Western Conference race with so many teams packed tightly together with the Dallas Mavericks falling apart and missing the tournament altogether.

Despite being the No. 6 seed, Golden State (+850) has the 4th-best NBA Finals odds at FanDuel. The only teams ranked higher are the Bucks (+240), Celtics (+350), and Suns (+480). That means the Warriors are ranked second in the Western Conference and even favored over the top-seeded Denver Nuggets (+1000).

The fact remains that these Warriors have never lost a playoff series when the Big Three (Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green) started every game of that series. Since 2015, the Warriors are 21-2 in the playoff series.

Can you really trust any team in the NBA to beat the Warriors at full strength in a best-of-seven series? We look at the case for and against a repeat championship in the NBA Finals this year.

The Case Against the Warriors Repeating

The Warriors finished No. 11 in Net Rating and No. 10 in Simple Rating System at Basketball Reference this season. Statistically, this is the weakest team Golden State has sent to the postseason since the start of this run back in 2013 when the Warriors got their first taste of the playoffs in the Curry era. They lost in the second round that season.

The 2022-23 Warriors certainly do not fit the common statistical profile of an NBA champion. If they win, it would be historic even if we know the core of this team, including head coach Steve Kerr, has had monumental success for a decade now.

Knock No. 1: The Weak Record

The Warriors finished 44-38. Among the 51 champions to win in a regular season with 82 games, only the 1977-78 Washington Bullets finished 44-38, so the Warriors would tie the fewest wins for a champion in a full season.

In terms of winning percentage, the Warriors (.537) would also tie those Bullets as the only teams out of 76 champions with a winning percentage under 56.9%. The 1994-95 Rockets (.573) are the only team since the current playoff format in the 1980s started to win a championship with a winning percentage under 63% in the regular season.

Knock No. 2: The Low Seed and Tougher Path

The Warriors are a No. 6 seed, and just one team seeded lower than No. 4 has ever won an NBA championship. The 1994-95 Rockets were a No. 6 seed and repeated after another clutch playoff run in another year where Michael Jordan was not fully available to the Bulls.

The No. 1 seed wins more than two-thirds of championships in NBA history. All four of these Warriors’ wins were as a top-three seed.

Realistically, the Warriors could have to win four playoff series without homecourt advantage against the likes of the Kings, Grizzlies, Nuggets or Suns, and an Eastern Conference team like the Bucks or Celtics.

Knock No. 3: The Awful Road Record

It is no surprise why the Warriors were just 44-38 and the No. 6 seed this year. This team stunk on the road in ways that are hard to believe given how well the Warriors played at home. We know this team to excel at home over the years, but this split was just wild in 2022-23:

• Home: 33-8 (.805), No. 10 in Offensive Rating, No. 3 in Defensive Rating, No. 5 in Net Rating
• Road: 11-30 (.268), No. 11 in Offensive Rating, No. 28 in Defensive Rating, No. 23 in Net Rating

Offensively, the Warriors are pretty consistent no matter where the game is played, but the defense falls apart on the road time and time again. The Warriors had 19 games this season where they allowed more than 125 points and 16 of those games were on the road.

Can a team with an 11-30 road record win four playoff series without homecourt advantage? It seems unlikely. Of the 76 NBA champions, no one won fewer than 32.1% of their road games in the regular season.

The 1957-58 St. Louis Hawks won the championship with a 9-19 (.321) road record in the regular season. But that was back when the league had eight teams and they only had to win two series in the playoffs.

The worst road record for a champion in a full season during expansion was 14-27 (.341) by the 1976-77 Trail Blazers.

Not only were the Warriors bad at winning on the road, but they were 2-17 SU and 5-14 ATS as a road underdog, the second-worst record in the league this year. Some team needs to jump out to a quick series lead and take advantage of the Warriors not having homecourt this year.

Knock No. 4: The Other Teams Are Finally Better?

This one is a tricky point to make given what happened last year, but what if the Western Conference is finally just better?

This season, the Warriors are 0-3 against Denver, 1-3 against the Lakers, and 1-3 against the Suns. Their best record against a likely tough opponent is 2-2 against the Grizzlies, and they are 3-1 against the Kings, their first-round opponent.

The first round sets up well for Golden State to advance, and the team is favored over the Kings to do so. But beyond that? We are talking about overcoming some poor records against these teams.

Of course, the reason this may be moot is what happened last season for Golden State:

• The Warriors were 1-3 against the Nuggets in the regular season and eliminated them in Game 5 in the first round.
• The Warriors were 1-3 against the Grizzlies in the regular season and eliminated them in Game 6 in the semifinals.
• The Warriors were 1-3 against the Mavericks in the regular season and eliminated them in Game 5 in the conference championship.
• The Warriors were 1-1 against the Celtics in the regular season, trailed 2-1 in the NBA Finals, and still eliminated them in Game 6 to win the championship.

With Curry finally overcoming his lack of a Finals MVP trophy last year, this team just has all the confidence in the world it can win any best-of-seven series as long as everyone is healthy.

Also, it is not like the Lakers have a history of staying healthy (Anthony Davis). The same can be said about the Suns (Kevin Durant and Devin Booker), and we know what usually happens to teams with Chris Paul in the playoffs. Not much playoff success for Denver and Memphis either.

The Case for the Warriors Repeating

We already just started pushing back in the last section for why the Warriors can do this again with the lack of success in the Western Conference. But there are other reasons to think this team is better than its record and playing well going into the tournament.

Reason No. 1: The First Round Opponent

Most No. 6 seeds fall in the first round to the No. 3 seed in the NBA, but the Warriors are actually a betting favorite of about -280 odds to beat the Sacramento Kings, who are in their first postseason since 2006.

The Kings have been a great story this year, but they are also 1-3 against the Warriors. Most of those matchups were early in the season, and it did not help that in last week’s 119-97 rout, the Warriors’ Big Three took advantage of a Kings team that rested De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, and Kevin Huerter.

But it does feel like a series the Warriors should win, so that is already a big advantage they have over the average No. 6 seed.

Reason No. 2: Steph Curry’s Health

You could argue the Warriors are better than their 44-38 record because they are healthy going into the playoffs. Steph Curry missed 26 games in the regular season and the Warriors held up at a respectable 14-12 record without him. But with Curry on the court, the Warriors are +8.0 points better in Net Rating than when he is off the court this season.

Adding him to the lineup is obviously a huge deal, and he has been a reliable playoff performer over the years with 26.6 points per game and 40% shooting from three in 134 playoff games.

Reason No. 3: The Return of Andrew Wiggins

The Warriors did not make huge changes to the roster from last year’s championship team, and one key piece that has been missing lately is Andrew Wiggins, who only played in 37 games.

Wiggins has not played since February 13 and has been away for personal reasons. However, he is expected to return just in time for the playoffs to give the Warriors another key player who was big during their title run last year.

The Warriors are +5.0 in Net Rating with Wiggins on the court this season. The rich just seem to get richer with this timely news of his return.

Reason No. 4: Klay Thompson Back in Top Form

Again, the Warriors’ plan of repeating by everyone getting a year older and giving Donte DiVincenzo 26.3 minutes per game does not sound that enticing. But if there is a difference between this team this year and last year, it is that Klay Thompson looks more like his old self another year removed from his devastating injuries.

Thompson was good at times for the Warriors last year, but you could see he was not his old self yet. How could he be after the rehab he had to go through? In 2021-22, Thompson shot 38.5% from three, his only season under 40% in his career.

But this season he got that average back up to 41.2%, his 21.9 points per game is the third-highest average of his career, and he led the NBA with a career-high 301 made threes (sixth most in a season in NBA history).

He does more than just show up for Game 6s. An effective Thompson makes the Warriors that much more dangerous as a title contender.

Conclusion: Yes, They Can Do It Again

Few professional sports leagues enjoy a repeat champion more than the NBA. It happens frequently, and even when it seems unlikely as in Houston’s case in 1994-95, it still happened.

The Warriors are an aggravating team to play because you can outplay them for 40 minutes, and suddenly a big run fueled by threes happens, and you go from a lead to a deficit with only minutes left. We have seen this play out so often.

Did they get lucky that Ja Morant was injured in last year’s second round? Sure, but those are the breaks in the playoffs these days. Golden State was unlucky when Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson were injured in 2019 against Toronto, the last time this team lost a series.

The best value bet may be on the Warriors to reach the Finals (+320 to win Western Conference), because it is so hard to trust Denver, Phoenix, Memphis, and LA in this crazy conference after such a mediocre regular season. But you could see those Eastern teams, namely Milwaukee and Boston, give the Warriors problems in the Finals this time.

But at +850, there is absolute value in the Warriors winning it all again. If the play-in tournament where road underdogs were 4-0 ATS and 3-1 SU can teach us anything, the mediocrity of this season will produce some wild results this postseason. No one is that much better than any other team, and even the Bucks can be victim to relying too much on the unique talents of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Head coach Kerr and his Big Three of Curry, Klay, and Green. That has been the winningest postseason combo in the last decade in the NBA. Good luck to anyone who can finally slay that dragon at full strength.

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