NFL

Tennessee Titans 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar23/08/2024 - 04:05 pm
(Photo by Kara Durrette/Getty Images)

The Tennessee Titans are going to look quite different this year after parting ways with head coach Mike Vrabel, quarterback Ryan Tannehill, and running back Derrick Henry. That’s the end of another era in the NFL, and another that peaked rather quickly with the team appearing in the 2019 AFC Championship Game, only to not win another playoff game the next four seasons.

But it was the right time to move on, and while expectations are not high for the Titans in 2024, they at least have a plan with some interesting pieces. Remember, combining a second-year quarterback (Will Levis) with a rookie head coach (Brian Callahan) can be one of the most effective ways for a surprise season as we’ll examine below.

Everyone is hyping the Houston Texans in the AFC South with good reason after what C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans accomplished as rookies last year. The AFC is obviously loaded at quarterback with the Chiefs eyeing a three-peat with Patrick Mahomes, a two-time MVP in Lamar Jackson, a great dual-threat in Josh Allen, the healthy returns of Aaron Rodgers (Jets) and Joe Burrow (Bengals), and Justin Herbert (Chargers) should finally have a top coach in Jim Harbaugh.

What exactly have we seen from Levis, other than some leaked videos on social we shouldn’t have seen this year, to think he is ready for a playoff run in this division and deep conference?

Let’s examine the sweeping changes in Tennessee as it is no longer King Henry’s team. We look back at the end of an era in Tennessee, the key offseason changes, the coach-quarterback dynamic, and the best Titans bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: End of the Line 

The Titans had a solid run under Vrabel but trading wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles in 2022 was the beginning of the end for this team. That move never made any sense, and the additional moves at wide receiver the team has made since only further complicates it as Brown is a franchise player you keep around.

In 2022, the Titans started 7-3 before a 7-game losing streak blew their shot at another division title. Most coaches wouldn’t have survived that one, but the Titans cautiously stepped into 2023 with a rookie quarterback in waiting, and they would give this one more shot.

Obviously, it did not go well.

The 2-4 Start

The Titans had a difficult schedule to start the season. You know it was difficult when a Los Angeles team with a healthy Jusitn Herbert was perhaps their “easiest” opponent at home, and it still took an overtime win to escape with that victory against a bad defense.

But the Titans with Tannehill really struggled to score on top defenses like the Saints (lost 16-15), Browns (lost 27-3), and they lost 24-16 overseas against the Ravens in a game where Tannehill left injured, casting doubt for the rest of his season with a bye to make a big quarterback decision.

The Good and Bad of Will Levis

Remember when Levis was going to be the No. 4 pick in the 2023 draft by the Colts? That was a fun 24 hours. He ended up going at the top of the second round to Tennessee, but some felt there was franchise potential with him.

In his NFL debut against the Falcons in Week 8, Levis tied the all-time record with 4 touchdown passes in a 28-23 win. Finally, someone unlocked DeAndre Hopkins in this offense as Levis threw 3-of-4 touchdowns to the veteran. Leave it to the Atlanta defense to allow such a record performance for the rookie, but the cynic in me couldn’t help but notice that Levis’ debut was largely built on those long scoring tosses. His overall passing success rate was just 32.3%, the lowest in any game with 4 touchdown passes since 1994.

You can chalk up another win for advanced stats, because in his final 8 starts, Levis only threw 4 more touchdowns to double his total in 2023. His success rate (37.1%) was the third lowest for the season among qualified passers.

This is not meant to be a dig at a rookie in a weak offense. It’s just proof that his debut against the Falcons was a misleading sign of what was to come.

In fact, after the Atlanta win got the team back to 3-4, it was a 3-game losing streak on the road against the Steelers, Buccaneers, and Jaguars that really sunk the season for Tennessee at 3-7.

The offense largely sputtered the rest of the season, but there was one game that provided some hope for 2024 for Levis. In Week 14, the Titans were a 13.5-point road underdog in Miami on Monday Night Football. After hanging in tough, the game seemed to slip away from Tennessee as the Dolphins took a 27-13 lead with 4:34 left.

But the Dolphins staged one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history. Levis quickly led a touchdown drive, then the Titans did the analytics move of going for a 2-point conversion, which they got to make it 27-21 with 2:40 left. After forcing Miami into a three-and-out, Levis got the ball back with plenty of time. He hit a couple of big throws to get to the red zone, then Henry finished the drive off with a 3-yard touchdown run.

The Titans led 28-27 and it was up to the defense to hold. Harold Landry sacked Tua Tagovailoa on a fourth down near midfield and that was the dagger. The Titans pulled off an incredible comeback in regulation, the only team to do so this century when trailing by at least 14 points in the final 3:00.

So, at least there was a highlight win to come of this 6-11 season that put an end to this era of Tennessee football.

Tennessee Titans Offseason Review

The Titans should look quite different this year without Derrick Henry, with a new coaching staff, and they poached a top corner from the Chiefs.

Brian Callahan Brings a New Offense to Tennessee

Rookie head coach Brian Callahan is 40 years old, and you might say he was born for this role. He is the son of Bill Callahan, who was the head coach of the Raiders in 2002 when the team reached the Super Bowl. In fact, Bill has followed his son to Tennessee this year as he has been a famed offensive line coach in recent years, working well with the Browns since 2020 in that role. Now he’ll coach up the line for his son in Tennessee.

As for Brian, he was an offensive assistant on the Broncos during the Peyton Manning years, so he has a good idea of what the highest standard of offense looks like. He has also been a quarterbacks coach for Matthew Stafford (2016-17 Lions) and Derek Carr (2018 Raiders). He became Zac Taylor’s offensive coordinator with Cincinnati in 2019, so he has been overseeing the offense with Joe Burrow that specialized in great 3-wide receiver sets with Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd.

Callahan expects his quarterback to be decisive with the ball and get it to those playmakers. He’s not a big proponent of using play-action, running the ball, or throwing to the tight end, but obviously this can all change based on the personnel at his disposal.

But this could be a very interesting clash of styles here with Callahan and Levis:

  • In 2023, Levis led all quarterbacks with 10.6 air yards per pass attempt, the deepest average throws in the league by 1.6 yards over C.J. Stroud.
  • Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow in Callahan’s offense threw the shortest average passes at 6.3 air yards per attempt according to Pro Football Reference.
  • Even if you want to blame Burrow’s calf injury for depressing those numbers, Cincinnati backup Jake Browning was next to last with 6.4 air yards per throw in 2023.

If the Titans are going to take on a higher volume of passing with Levis, Callahan is definitely going to have to get him comfortable with the short, quick throws. That should come naturally for a second-year quarterback. Last year, Levis completed 68.4% of his passes when he got the ball out in under 2.5 seconds compared to 47.5% when he held it longer, so it would be beneficial to get him some easier throws this year to move the chains and keep the offense on schedule.

As we said in the season recap, relying on long touchdown bombs against the Falcons is not something you can hope to see often in this league. Levis will need to get much better in the quick and short game.

New Toys for Levis and Callahan

The Titans have really revamped their offensive weapons this season. While DeAndre Hopkins is still there, he could be surpassed on the depth chart by Calvin Ridley as the new No. 1 receiver. Ridley had one underwhelming year in Jacksonville, but keep in mind he missed a whole season of football in 2022 for a suspension due to gambling. Maybe he’ll be better this year as Callahan’s offense is crucial in relying on those outside receivers.

Hopkins and Ridley are not Chase and Higgins, but they’re not a bad duo by any means. They also brought in Tyler Boyd from the Bengals, a big slot receiver who knows Callahan’s offense well. This actually gives the Titans one of the best wide receiver trios in the league. Even if it doesn’t realize its full potential, this is better than what the Titans had last year.

The only downside is this could be the end of the road for Treylon Burks, the team’s first-round pick in 2022 who has been abysmal given he was their way of replacing A.J. Brown after that ill-advised trade. Burks had just 221 yards in 11 games last season and could be an afterthought this year. But if he breaks out too, this receiving corps goes ridiculously deep.

They still have Chig Okonkwo at tight end too after he finished second on the team with 528 yards and 54 catches last year. Right behind him in catches was third-round rookie back Tyjae Spears, who had 52 catches for 385 yards. He also backed up Henry with 453 rushing yards. He could fit a bigger role this year.

As we saw last year, maybe Tony Pollard isn’t cut out for the workhorse carries after all. His 2023 season in Dallas was a bit disappointing with a lack of explosive plays. But in coming over to Tennessee, he doesn’t have to replace what Henry did as the leader in carries as the team should be taking a new approach with Spears able to split touches more.

Also, don’t discount the offensive line being better with Callahan (the father) coaching that unit. They drafted Peter Skoronski at left guard a year ago, and this year they used their high first-round pick on left tackle JC Latham, a top prospect from Alabama.

This is a significantly changed offense, and it would be a shock if it wasn’t a better one in 2024.

New Defensive Direction Too

With a new coaching staff in town, defensive coordinator Shane Bowen is out too after a solid job. Dennard Wilson is the new DC after coaching the defensive backs for the talented Ravens in 2023. He has also coached defensive backs for the Rams (2015-16), the Jets (2017-20), and Eagles (2021-22). The 2022 Eagles had very strong corner play in that Super Bowl year.

Go figure, the Titans made their big defensive move in the secondary when they sent a third-round pick in 2025 to the Chiefs for the rights to corner L’Jarius Sneed, who made some incredible plays last year to help the team repeat as champions. Who can forget the fumble Sneed forced at the 1-yard line against Zay Flowers in the 2023 AFC Championship Game?

That’s not to say there still isn’t a huge gap between the Chiefs and Titans after this move, but that was a good pickup for this secondary where they have veterans like Chidobe Awuzie, Amani Hooker, and Quandre Diggs.

The Titans had just 14 takeaways on defense last year – only the Panthers (11) had fewer, a team that never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. The Titans will hope for some positive regression there, but they also need more pressure after only getting to quarterbacks 18.8% of the time in 2023 (ranked 27th).

Denico Autry had 11.5 sacks to lead the team but has left for the Texans. Harold Landry is still there, and he had 10.5 sacks and led the team with 26 pressures. He’ll have to be even better this year.

The Titans used the No. 38 pick in the draft on Texas defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat, so they are looking for that consistent presence up front in the 3-4 defense.

It doesn’t look like a Super Bowl-ready defense, but that’s not where the Titans are realistically aiming in 2024 anyway.

This Year’s Narrative: Will Callahan and Levis Surprise People with a Quick Turnaround?

The NFL is no stranger to a team going from last in its division to first place the next year. In fact, this already happened in the AFC South last year when the Texans went from 3-13-1 in 2022 to 10-7 and a division winning, playoff winning team under rookie coach DeMeco Ryans and quarterback C.J. Stroud.

It would be pretty shocking for another worst-to-first switch in the AFC South with Tennessee, especially given the hype for Houston in 2024. But we looked at something similar already in the Carolina Panthers preview with Bryce Young going into his second season with a rookie coach in Dave Canales. If you are looking for a surprise turnaround team, that combination of a young quarterback and new coach can be one of the best ways of predicting it.

Here is a table with all 14 instances in the last decade of a team pairing a second-year quarterback with a new head coach:

Team Year New Coach 2nd-Year QB Record O/U Result Note
OAK 2015 Jack Del Rio Derek Carr 7-9 Over 5.5 No Playoffs
TB 2016 Dirk Koetter Jameis Winston 9-7 Over 7.0 No Playoffs
TEN 2016 Mike Mularkey Marcus Mariota 9-7 Over 6.0 No Playoffs
LAR 2017 Sean McVay Jared Goff 11-5 Over 6.0 Lost WC
CHI 2018 Matt Nagy Mitch Trubisky 12-4 Over 7.5 Lost WC
CLE 2019 Freddie Kitchens Baker Mayfield 6-10 Under 9.0 No Playoffs
NYJ 2019 Adam Gase Sam Darnold 7-9 Under 7.5 No Playoffs
WAS 2020 Ron Rivera Dwayne Haskins 7-9 Over 5.0 Lost WC
NYG 2020 Joe Judge Daniel Jones 6-10 Under 6.5 No Playoffs
LAC 2021 Brandon Staley Justin Herbert 9-8 Under 9.5 No Playoffs
PHI 2021 Nick Sirianni Jalen Hurts 9-8 Over 6.5 Lost WC
CHI 2022 Matt Eberflus Justin Fields 3-14 Under 6.5 No Playoffs
JAX 2022 Doug Pederson Trevor Lawrence 9-8 Over 6.5 Lost DIV
HOU 2022 Lovie Smith Davis Mills 3-13-1 Under 4.5 No Playoffs

The over is 8-6 in these cases, and it’s hard to take the 2022 Texans as a serious attempt with a lame-duck coach (Lovie Smith) and a filler quarterback (Davis Mills) after the Deshaun Watson fiasco.

But five of these teams made the playoffs, and four of them saw an offensive-minded coach pair with a quarterback who needed some major help after a lackluster rookie season. We’re talking about these four groups:

  • 2017 Rams with Jared Goff and Sean McVay, which added a lot of talented receivers to the offense.
  • 2018 Bears with Mitch Trubisky and Matt Nagy, which also had an elite defense.
  • 2021 Eagles with Jalen Hurts and Nick Sirianni, who went winless against playoff teams but cleaned up in the other games.
  • 2022 Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence and Doug Pederson, who took advantage of that 7-game losing streak by the Titans to steal a division title

As you are about to see, our best bet isn’t for the Titans to shock everyone and win the AFC South in 2024. But if it were going to happen, you can at least see the logic behind it with the offensive coach coming over from the success of the Bengals, the new weapons in Tennessee, and maybe Levis takes that big leap forward with all these changes.

Crazier things have happened.

Best Bets for the 2024 Titans

The Titans are a longshot in the AFC South (+950 at FanDuel), but what about improving on last year’s record to go over their line of 6.5 wins? They are actually favored to go under this year, which could mean no real improvement for Levis.

Or is the schedule really that tough? In our first look at an AFC South team this year, let’s run through the schedule and see where we could find 7 wins to hit the over as we are feeling optimistic about this team in that way:

  • The Chicago crowd will be so hyped for Week 1 with Caleb Williams making his first start, but you have to think the Titans have a shot for an upset there with Levis having more experience under his belt.
  • If they don’t win in Chicago, there could be a wait for a win as the Titans face the Jets, Packers, and back to Miami before the Week 5 bye. Surely, they can’t upset Miami again, right?
  • Like the Titans to get at least a split with the Jaguars and Colts this year; Houston is a different story in the AFC South.
  • Going to Buffalo and Detroit in Weeks 7-8 will be very difficult as those teams can score.
  • Absolutely must capitalize at home in Week 9 against the rebuilding Patriots.
  • Ditto in Week 11 at home with the Vikings, another team in a rough situation this year.
  • Week 13 is in Washington, which should have a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels) and had a poor defense last year.
  • Three division games to close things, and maybe they can get lucky in Week 18 at home against Houston if the Texans can afford to rest starters with their seed locked up.

Admittedly, the schedule came out tougher than you would like to see for a team trying to build something. But the AFC South is also the real mystery genre this year as we have to see if the Texans are truly the next elite team, we have to figure out what Trevor Lawrence really is in Jacksonville, and we have no real clue how good Anthony Richardson is yet in Indianapolis.

Still, I’m going to trust my gut that the Titans improve on last year even if it’s by one game and they finish 7-10. That’s still good enough to hit the over.

NFL Pick: Tennessee Titans over 6.5 wins (+118 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar23/08/2024 - 04:05 pm