NFL

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar17/08/2024 - 08:28 am
(Photo by Jason Mowry/Getty Images)

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had never won back-to-back division titles before ripping off the last three NFC South crowns. Few imagined Baker Mayfield would replace Tom Brady as well as he did in 2023, including a playoff victory, but the oddsmakers are not on board with this team winning a fourth-straight division title.

The NFC South has been the NFL’s weakest division the last three years with the champ not even needing 10 wins the last two seasons. That could continue in 2024, but there are reasons to think the division will be stronger this season:

  • The Falcons are the new favorites after a busy offseason of adding a new coach, a new quarterback (Kirk Cousins) who could be the division’s best, and then picking up some quality defenders in August like Matt Judon and Justin Simmons.
  • The Saints are still formidable (by NFC South standards), and they are looking for some positive regression after they were the only NFL team who didn’t win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter last year.
  • Even the Panthers should be a better team this year with more weapons and Tampa’s offensive coordinator (Dave Canales) leaving to become their new head coach in the hopes he can help Bryce Young the way he did Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield the last two years.

As for head coach Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers, it feels a little like 2021 when they won the Super Bowl and pretty much went on tour with the same band for the next season. At least this time Mike Evans shouldn’t retire midgame in December like Antonio Brown did that year.

But the lack of huge changes in Tampa does make you feel like the team is resting on its laurels, which aren’t exactly that impressive after finishing 8-9 and 9-8 these last two years. The weak division has been their crutch, but that lack of variance (or volatility) from trying something new might come back to haunt them this year as they face a first-place schedule again.

We look back at the team’s run to the playoffs last year, the key few offseason changes, the case for winning the NFC South, and the best Buccaneers bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: Bless the NFC South  

It would be a stretch to say the Buccaneers made big strides over the team it fielded in 2022. Baker Mayfield’s QBR (54.3) was a couple of decimal points behind Tom Brady’s (54.6) from the previous year. The offensive line was a little better, but the running game still ranked dead last in yards and yards per carry (3.4). Even the defense finished No. 12 in points per drive both years. However, their rank in yards per drive fell from No. 4 in 2022 to No. 23 in 2023.

But bless this division, and specifically, getting to play the Panthers.

In both seasons, the team clinched the NFC South with a late-year win over the Panthers. In both seasons, the Buccaneers pulled off one comeback victory in a key divisional game where it allowed over 20 points. Otherwise, this team is 2-15 when allowing over 20 points the last two seasons.

The Surprising Offense

The main concerns in going from Brady to Mayfield were more turnovers and an offense that wouldn’t make the smart plays to sustain drives on third downs.

Surprisingly, Tampa had fewer turnovers (18 vs. 22) with Mayfield leading the offense for new coordinator Dave Canales. The 2023 offense also finished 10th on third down (41.5%) while the 2022 offense was only 21st (37.4%).

In starting 3-1, the Buccaneers edged out some teams who had slow starts to the year like the Vikings, Bears, and Saints. They still lost 25-11 at home to the Eagles in a game they looked outclassed. We saw similar losses by the Buccaneers against top teams like the Lions (20-6), Bills (24-18), and 49ers (27-14). They also lost a fun shootout, 39-37, in Houston with rookie C.J. Stroud shredding them for a rookie record 470 yards.

Most teams who start 4-7 become an afterthought, but the beauty of the NFC South is no one was running away with it as Derek Carr was slow out of the gate for the Saints, the Panthers were dreadful on their way to 2-15, and the Falcons were too busy Falconing.

After a win over Carolina, the Buccaneers had their best run with a clutch 29-25 win in Atlanta where Mayfield threw a late game-winning touchdown to Cade Otton. Mayfield shredded the Packers in Green Bay in a 34-20 win where he had a perfect passer rating (158.3). The team also crushed a slumping Jacksonville team 30-12 to get to 8-7.

But with a chance to wrap up the division, the Buccaneers faltered badly at home in a 23-13 loss to the Saints where they turned the ball over a season-high four times, their only game with more than two giveaways last year.

Fortunately, they only had to beat the Panthers in Week 18 to win the division. It was an ugly game and Mayfield was banged up, but the defense did its job and the team prevailed 9-0 to win the NFC South again.

The Spirited Playoff Run for the Buccaneers

For most of the 2023 season, it felt like the NFC South winner, the NFC’s No. 4 seed, would just be the sacrificial lamb for the runner-up in the NFC East between Dallas and Philadelphia. That’s all Tampa was in 2022 when the Cowboys came in there and smacked Brady around in an easy win.

But the Eagles had a dramatic collapse last season and handed the division back to the Cowboys, setting up a trip to Tampa Bay for Philadelphia in a rematch from Week 3. The Eagles were a 3-point road favorite, but the Buccaneers looked like the better team all around. Mayfield carved up that defense for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns in the second playoff win of his career. His first was also against a Pennsylvania team going through a major collapse when he beat the 2020 Steelers in Pittsburgh, a team that started 11-0 and won one of its last six games.

In the divisional round, the Buccaneers were a 6-point underdog in Detroit. The game was competitive and they had some chances, but in the end, Detroit prevailed 31-23. Just too much offense for those Lions at home.

But after a spirited run by Mayfield and company, the Buccaneers had some decisions to make on who would be returning for 2024.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Review

If the Buccaneers could have convinced Canales to stay on as the OC for another year, this would be the easiest offseason review to write this season. Alas, the Buccaneers had to find another coordinator, something Mayfield is used to in his career.

New Offensive Coordinator: Liam Coen

No one creates jobs quite like Sean McVay. Another one of his assistants from the Rams, Liam Coen, is the new offensive coordinator for Tampa. He spent last year in that role for Kentucky in the college game, but he was Mayfield’s OC in 2022 when he spent a few weeks with the team. So, there will be some familiarity there.

Coen gets some solid pieces to work with, and again, it’s a very similar lineup to 2023:

  • Mayfield is back and will try to improve on his good finish to last season. He’s never been able to stack quality seasons so far in the NFL.
  • Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds are back at running back for a team that really needs to crank up the running game.
  • The offensive line is very young and still anchored by left tackle Tristan Wirfs, but he needs help.
  • Left guard Ben Bredeson comes over from the Giants who were horrific up front last year, but hopefully playing in a better offense will help him out.
  • Tight end Cade Otto is going into his third season.
  • The team kept that duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin together for at least another year. Helping them at wideout are second-year player Trey Palmer, veteran Sterling Shepard, and third-round rookie Jalen McMillan is an interesting prospect from a pass-heavy offense.

Center has been an issue for the team, so it used its first-round pick on Duke center Graham Barton. He was highly respected in this draft class and should be a Week 1 starter.

The Homegrown Defense

It is very possible the Buccaneers will go into Week 1 with every defensive starter a player the team has drafted. This is now possible after the team brought back safety Jordan Whitehead, their fourth-round pick who was with the team in 2018-21 before he spent a couple of seasons with the Jets. He’s back and will pair again with safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who had another great season last year.

Defensive tackle Vita Vea and linebacker Lavonte David (he should retire a Buc) are still the leaders of this defense. They’ll be looking for more from Calijah Kancey, last year’s first-round pick. Edge rusher Yaya Diaby led the team last year with 7.5 sacks as a third-round rookie, so that’s a player to keep an eye on this year. Either some beginner’s luck or a mid-round gem in the making. With 7.5 sacks and only 14 pressures, that might lead to some regression this year, so someone needs to pick up the slack.

Veteran Shaquil Barrett led the team with 19 pressures last year, but he has since retired. This is why it felt like the Bucs should have gone pass rusher in the first round, but center was a need too.

Corner Carlton Davis is another player who left (for Detroit), but he wasn’t coming off a strong year anyway. The Bucs still have Jamel Dean and drafted slot corner Tykee Smith in the third round from Georgia.

Bowles very much has the pulse of this defense, but the lack of a dominant edge rusher or shut-down corner makes you wonder how vulnerable they’ll be in a division race where you have to think the other three teams should get better quarterback play in 2024.

This Year’s Narrative: The Case for a Tampa Bay Four-Peat in the NFC South

For the Buccaneers to win a fourth-straight division title, they’ll have to show their consistency and continuity is valuable and not a case of complacency setting in as the aim should be higher than 9-8.

Mayfield finished the season very well. Over the last six games, he threw for 14 touchdowns and 4 interceptions with a 109.3 passer rating. In that stretch, he had four games with over 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes.

You give him a coordinator he’s worked with before, and he is very used to having to work with a new play-caller in his career. But the Buccaneers also should give him a better line and running game as it would be hard to do worse than they have on the ground the last two seasons. More talent up front and also more experience.

The receivers are still very good, and Palmer could improve in his second season. Otton is still young too and could break out like Cole Kmet did for the Bears last year.

Defensively, you just again hope Bowles’ experience of calling blitzes will make up for the lack of pass-rushing dominance they have individually.

Then it’s a matter of excelling in those division games. The Bucs swept Carolina last year but split with the other teams. Those head-to-head matchups will be absolutely crucial again in this division.

No team looks stacked enough to win 11 or more games right now. Even getting to 10 wins might be a stretch.

Best Bets for the 2024 Buccaneers

You may know we already picked the Falcons to go 10-7 and win the NFC South this year. That’s not the most confident division pick this year by any means, but there is confidence to think the reign of division titles and playoff appearances for the Buccaneers comes to an end this season.

First, the division should absolutely be better in 2024 as you won’t have Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder taking the boring path to 7-10 anymore, Bryce Young has better coaching and weapons around him, and the Saints are more or less the same team that was playing very well to end the season.

Second, the first-place schedule was a reason to fade the Buccaneers last year, but they still found a way to win it at 9-8 on tiebreakers over New Orleans. But if you look at this year’s first-place schedule, that means the Buccaneers will go back to Detroit in Week 2, face the Ravens on a Monday night in Week 7, and host the 49ers in Week 10. They can go 0-3 in those games, and again, the other NFC South teams do not play any of those teams this regular season.

The Bucs will be on the road in Week 5 on a short week against the Falcons on a Thursday night. Tough spot for a big game. They also have to play the Chiefs and Cowboys, two consistent winners, on the road.

But the Buccaneers will get home games early against teams with rookie quarterbacks in the Commanders and Broncos. They also host the Raiders (Week 14), who should have one of the worst quarterback situations.

Look for Tampa to be hanging around in the division race late in the year when it has the Panthers and Saints in home games to end the season. Maybe they sneak away with the NFC South again in those weeks, but my best bet is for an 8-9 type of finish that comes up short and leaves the team out of the playoffs entirely.

Simply not enough big changes like the rest of the division to think the status quo remains in this team’s favor for another year.

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 7.5 wins (-136 at BetRivers)

NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers make playoffs – NO (-180 at Caesars Sportsbook)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar17/08/2024 - 08:28 am