By Scott Kacsmar
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC South last year, but they are projected to finish last in the division this year, and they have the second-worst odds (+5000 at FanDuel) to win the NFC.
Of course, this has to do with Tom Brady retiring, which is just the latest in a series of retirements the franchise has experienced since winning the Super Bowl in the 2020 season. But when you go from Brady to Baker Mayfield, there is going to be a drop-off.
But this team was already fortunate to be 8-9 last year when it had the worst scoring differential (-45) of any team in the NFC South. The Buccaneers have an over/under of 6.5 wins this year. Are they an easy choice for an under, or can Todd Bowles actually work some magic with the defense to give the team a shot at more wins?
We look back at 2022’s swansong for Brady, the key offseason changes, the new offense, and the best Buccaneers bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: This Is the End
Expectations were still high for the Buccaneers after Tom Brady ended his 40-day retirement to return to the team with Todd Bowles getting the promotion to head coach. Bowles’ defense started the season very well with dominant performances against Dallas and New Orleans, but something looked off with the offense.
Tampa Bay rushed for a whopping 3 yards against Kansas City in a 41-31 loss. It would be one of only two times all season where Tampa scored more than 23 points. But even in that game, the Bucs trailed by double digits after the first quarter for the rest of the night.
After barely hanging on for a 21-15 win over Atlanta, the 3-2 Buccaneers never had a winning record for the rest of the season. They lost in Pittsburgh after backup quarterback Mitch Trubisky converted four times on 3rd-and-10 or longer in the second half after Kenny Pickett left with a concussion. Incredibly, Trubisky had more conversions on third-and-long in one half than Brady had in 18 games for Tampa Bay, which finished 3-for-64 on third-and-10 or longer in 2022.
You know something is wrong with Brady when he only scores 18 points and loses to Pittsburgh, which didn’t even have T.J. Watt. Worse, the Bucs lost 21-3 in Carolina, which was starting P.J. Walker for an interim coach.
The Buccaneers were losing ground quickly at 3-5, but the Rams offered up some hope by blowing a late lead to the Bucs, giving up a game-winning touchdown with seconds left. The offense looked good against Seattle overseas, but that was short-lived. The offense struggled again in an overtime loss in Cleveland.
Worse than the Rams game, the Saints really let a 16-3 lead slip away in the fourth quarter after doing everything possible to give the Buccaneers a break. They won that one 17-16 to get back to .500. But the 49ers, in rookie quarterback Brock Purdy’s first start, crushed Tampa Bay 35-7 a week later.
The Buccaneers were 1-9 when allowing more than 16 points last season. Another miracle comeback against Arizona in overtime set up a de facto division title game at home with Carolina in Week 17. That proved to be the last vintage performance of Brady’s career as he led a comeback win to wrap up the division despite only having an 8-8 record.
A week later, the Buccaneers knew they were the No. 4 seed, so they were not overly motivated to win in Atlanta. They ended up losing to finish 8-9, the first time in Brady’s career he had a losing record as a starter.
But there was some optimism that the Bucs could win a home playoff game against a shaky Dallas team that lost 19-3 on opening night. Dak Prescott was injured in that game, but he looked terrible before the injury. That was way back in Week 1, but the Cowboys had just turned in a similarly awful performance in Washington to end the regular season, and Prescott was the most intercepted quarterback in the NFL despite missing 5 starts to injury.
But Dallas made short work of Tampa Bay. Prescott played fantastically, Brady threw a huge pick in the end zone early in the game, and the Cowboys won with ease, 31-14. The only thing Dallas did wrong was kicker Brett Maher missing 4 straight extra points, an NFL record for one game.
Tampa Bay’s season was over, and so was Brady’s career for good this time.
Offseason Review
Obviously, there is a quarterback change we get into below, but the Buccaneers also have a new offensive coordinator after Byron Leftwich fell on the sword for last year’s dismal performance.
Dave Canales is the new coordinator, the biggest role of his career. He comes over from Seattle where he was working for Pete Carroll since 2010, coaching the wide receivers and quarterbacks. He was the passing game coordinator in Russell Wilson’s final seasons there, and he was the quarterbacks coach last year when Geno Smith had his breakout season.
Defense is where this team will have to make its living to keep games close. They still have a good collection of defenders here, and the good news is Shaquil Barrett is back healthy after only playing in 8 games. He had 10 sacks in 2021.
The Buccaneers also drafted Calijah Kancey in the first round, a defensive end who can help out this season and be a Week 1 starter. The defense still has Vita Vea, Lavonte David, Devin White, Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, and Antonie Winfield Jr.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Will the Offense Improve Without Tom Brady?
While Byron Leftwich deserved to get canned for last year, he was not working with a very good offense like he had in previous years.
The offensive line had issues with center Ryan Jensen getting injured before the season. He did not play until giving it a go in the playoff game, which was a crazy decision on his part. He is back now and should start Week 1. The Buccaneers also drafted right guard Cody Mauch in the second round and will start him. Tristan Wirfs is moving to left tackle to replace Donovan Smith. The offensive line has a chance to be better this year.
The skill players could also be better:
- Wide receiver Chris Godwin looked a bit slow in his return from a torn ACL last year. We often see a player get a little boost two seasons removed from that injury, so he could be closer to the player we are used to seeing pre-injury.
- Mike Evans has always been reliable for 1,000 yards and Russell Gage is a decent No. 3 option.
- Tight end Cade Otton is also no longer a rookie and had plenty of useful experience last year.
- The running backs will be Rachaad White and Chase Edmonds, which is a speed improvement over veteran Leonard Fournette.
But the elephant in the room is that the Buccaneers were largely held back by their 45-year-old quarterback last year.
He had one foot already out the door to retirement. He was going through a very public, tough divorce after his decision to come back. He had no running game and the aforementioned issues with Godwin and the line. It was not a good situation to be in.
But Brady also showed his age more than ever last year. He flat out was done getting hit, releasing the ball in 2.45 seconds on average – his fastest on record since 2016 and the fastest in the NFL in 2022 (source: Next Gen Stats).
This quick release also hampered the offense, because the receivers were not getting downfield for big plays, and he was not letting anything develop deep. The throws were darts that were not gaining YAC, and the Buccaneers were not scoring because of this.
In fact, through 11 games last season, the Buccaneers ranked No. 1 in lowest sack rate and lowest turnover rate because of Brady’s quick release and decision making. However, they were No. 27 in scoring, creating a trio of stats that have been impossible to have at the same time in NFL history. Bad offenses that do not score usually turn the ball over or give up negative plays like sacks. But the Buccaneers were uniquely terrible in Brady’s final season.
After those 11 games, the turnovers started to happen, including 7 giveaways against the 49ers and Bengals. Brady finished with the lowest touchdown pass rate (3.4%) of his career. It was also his only season with an average completion of under 10 yards (9.6).
Going from Brady to Baker Mayfield sounds like a huge downgrade, but is that really the case when Baker will at least hold the ball longer and give someone like Evans a chance to get open deep? They are not replacing vintage Brady; they are replacing the worst version of Brady.
Even when Brady left the Patriots in 2020, they did not decline all that much offensively despite losing more players to COVID than anyone and starting a broken-down Cam Newton.
- 2019 Patriots with Tom Brady: 1.99 points per drive (18th), 30.5 yards per drive (20th)
- 2020 Patriots without Tom Brady: 2.00 points per drive (24th), 35.9 yards per drive (14th)
The 2020 season was more offensive at the league level due to no crowds, but the 2020 Patriots averaged the same points and over 5 more yards per game than the 2019 offense did.
But with Mayfield, you are getting a much more erratic passer who will miss the short, easy throws that Brady sees as well as anyone. Also, whether you call it clutch ability or Brady’s dark voodoo luck, the Bucs lose a huge edge in close games with Mayfield, who is only 8-22 (.267) at game-winning drive opportunities in his career, the worst record among active starters (min. 15 games).
We will see what Canales comes up with as the new coordinator. If he gets Mayfield to play better than ever after helping Geno Smith in Seattle last year, then he might be on the fast track to becoming a head coach in this league. But he is an unproven entity, and Mayfield is a known liability.
Best Bets for the 2023 Buccaneers
The other factor working against Tampa Bay this year is the schedule. While the NFC South teams still look flawed, the Buccaneers will have a hard time posting a good record in those games.
But the important difference is in the non-division games on the schedule. The NFC South is playing the AFC South and NFC North, which is good news for Tampa Bay since neither division is loaded.
However, by virtue of playing a first-place schedule, the Buccaneers have to play the Eagles, 49ers, and Bills with two of those games on the road. The rest of the NFC South teams do not have to play any of those teams this year. This is why it would be easy to see Tampa Bay go from first to worst in the NFC South this year.
Let’s face it. The Buccaneers were a 5-12 team last year that relied on some of Brady’s usual luck for the Rams, Saints, and Cardinals to puke all over themselves and blow leads. Take that element away and consider that Bowles is 34-50 (.405) as a head coach in his career.
Good defense? Maybe, but this isn’t 1999 anymore. You have to be able to score, and Mayfield is not the right player to lead a team. The Buccaneers are a great under bet this season.
NFL Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 6.5 wins (-142 at FanDuel)
