Who is the NBA‘s Most Valuable Player this season? Of course, that’s an impossible question to answer with most teams having over 15 games left to play, but a basic idea can certainly be drawn out at this point. Considering all of the league’s best, this prediction is not an easy one to make, but here is why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, as of right now, deserves the MVP award.
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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Season in Perspective
First, the obvious. Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league, averaging 32.7 points per game, two points above second-place Giannis Antetokounmpo. It’s no secret that he is far and away the best scorer in the NBA. This month, he has had three consecutive games scoring 40+ points, including a 51-point performance on March 4th vs. the Rockets. Since 2025 began, he has had four 50+ performances, the most of anyone in the NBA in that timespan. He is also shooting 53% from the field and 37% from three. Shooting aside, he is averaging 5.1 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 1.8 steals.
While it is well-known and has been even further established this season that Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best players in the NBA, the MVP award is ultimately about the impact a player has on his team and the value he provides. As for Gilgeous-Alexander, not only is the value he provides incredibly obvious to anyone watching the games, but he is also second in the league with 8.0 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).
Personal statistics aside, he has led the Thunder to a dominant Western Conference-leading 54-12 record thus far, and on Wednesday they became the second team in the league to clinch a spot in the playoffs (the first were the East-leading Cavs, who boast a 55-10 record).
The Thunder are a great team altogether, but there’s no doubt that Gilgeous-Alexander has led them to where they are right now. He leads the team in nearly every statistical category, including points, assists, steals, and blocks.
The Opponent: Nikola Jokic
Nobody said Gilgeous-Alexander’s MVP race would be easy. As deserving as he is, he will ultimately have to go up against Nikola Jokic for the prized award. At first glance, it might seem like Jokic deserves the award. Although he is third in the league in points behind Gilgeous-Alexander and Antetokounmpo, Jokic is third in the league with 13.0 rebounds and second in the league with 10.5 assists. Gilgeous-Alexander, on the other hand, is not in the top ten in either category. As for the VORP stat mentioned earlier, Gilgeous-Alexander is second to- you guessed it- Jokic.
The race is incredibly close in every way, including head-to-head performance. On March 9th and 10th, the Nuggets and the Thunder played back-to-back games against each other, with fans hoping for more clarity on the MVP race seeing Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokic face off against each other for two consecutive days. In reality, the matchups just made things more complicated.
In the first game, the Thunder won 127-103. Gilgeous-Alexander shined with a 40-point performance, along with five assists and eight rebounds, while on the other side, Jokic put up 24 with nine assists and 13 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander’s 40-point performance led the Thunder, while Jokic’s 24 shared the Nuggets lead with Michael Porter Jr.
In game two the next day, the Nuggets got their revenge in a 140-127 victory. Jokic led Denver in scoring with 35 points and in addition, recorded eight assists and 18 rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander, with 25 points, was second in Thunder scoring to Luguentz Dort‘s 26. Gilgeous-Alexander additionally put up seven assists and three rebounds.
No matter how you view it, this MVP race is going to be neck and neck.
Why Shai?
The season, of course, isn’t over yet. The MVP race between Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic is still playing itself out, and things can change drastically by the end of the season. For now, our pick is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
As close as the head-to-head matchups were, a crucial aspect is the standings. As previously mentioned, the Thunder lead the Western Conference with a 54-12 record. The Nuggets sit at 42-24, an entire 12 games behind the Thunder. Oklahoma City is the better team, and comparing Gilgeous-Alexander at their helm to Jokic at Denver’s, it’s sensible to pick the leader of the better team.
Statistically speaking, there are categories where Jokic leads Gilgeous-Alexander, but other than VORP, an advanced stat usually overlooked, there is nothing he outright leads. He still is second to Trae Young in assists and third in rebounds behind Domantas Sabonis and Karl-Anthony Towns. Gilgeous-Alexander, on the other hand, dominates the scoring category. Points are probably the most valued stat in basketball, and it is a tremendous help to Gilgeous-Alexander’s case that he leads the league in them.
It Ain’t Over ‘Til it’s Over
This couldn’t be stressed enough: There’s still a month left in the season. Things can change, and the picture can be completely different by the end of the season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the pick for now, but anything can happen in a month of basketball. As the regular season comes to a close, the last month should be exciting both for those following the MVP race and the playoff race.
