For the second season in a row, the Seattle Seahawks won a close game in Week 18 to finish 9-8. But this time it was not good enough to qualify as the final wild-card team in the NFL playoffs.
After a fourth-straight season without a playoff win, the team parted ways with head coach Pete Carroll, who had been with the team since 2010 and was the oldest active coach in the league. His replacement, Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, will be the youngest coach in the NFL this season at 37 years old.
The Seahawks are being overlooked in the division for the 49ers and Rams, both of which made the playoffs last season. Sportsbooks also see more positive things for those teams while the Seahawks have the same win total betting line (7.5) as the Cardinals this year.
It has been several years since the Seahawks had a great defense. You would have to go back to the days before the Legion of Boom fell off. But if a fresh set of eyes at the top can help this defense get back to the middle of the pack, then maybe there’s enough here offensively to exceed the low expectations in 2024.
We look back at 2023’s shortcomings, the key offseason changes, the impact of a new defensive coach, and the best Seahawks bets for 2024.
Table of Contents
2023 Season Recap: Same Record, Slightly Worse Team
The trouble with a 9-8 record is you never know when that’s going to be good enough for a division title or missing the playoffs entirely. In Seattle’s case, sweeping the Rams proved vital to making the playoffs in 2022 while the Rams returned the favor with a sweep of their own in 2023.
While quarterback Geno Smith did not replicate his 2022 breakout season, he kept things pretty close despite being slowed by an injury. However, the defense was of even less help.
Geno Smith Toughs It Out
One of the biggest question marks for Seattle in 2023 was just how much trust it could have that Geno Smith’s 2022 Pro Bowl season was a legitimate sign of the player he would be going forward. It’s one of the weirder career arcs in NFL history for a quarterback who wasn’t very good for the Jets in 2013-14, lost his job in 2015 after his teammate sucker-punched him, then sat behind quarterbacks who never got hurt for years before finally getting this shot with Seattle.
Geno ran with it in 2022, deservingly making the Pro Bowl after he threw 30 touchdowns and led the league in completion percentage (69.8%). On the surface, his numbers dropped in 2023 with his completion percentage falling to 64.7% and his touchdowns dropping from 30 to 20.
But when you acknowledge he had a groin injury that cost him two full games late in the season, his numbers didn’t really drop all that much from season to season:
- His yards per attempt only fell from 7.5 to 7.3.
- His interception rate was about the same in both seasons (1.9% to 1.8%) and he fumbled three fewer times in 2023.
- His sack rate was better in 2023 (5.8% instead of 7.4%).
- His passing success rate dropped a percentage point (48.2% to 47.2%).
- His QBR dropped from 62.8 to 59.5.
- His adjusted net yards per attempt only fell from 6.54 to 6.39.
Smith kept this team afloat last year by leading four comeback wins in the fourth quarter and five game-winning drives. The Seahawks only dropped from No. 10 in points per drive scored on offense to No. 12 last year.
One of the biggest differences in the numbers is with Smith’s decision to run the ball himself. He had 68 runs for 366 yards and 24 first downs in 2022. Last year, he only had 37 carries for 155 yards and 10 first downs. Stats like QBR love when a quarterback runs for a first down, so this decrease alone could explain much of the difference in his QBR numbers between the seasons.
But this lack of running is also in line with a quarterback who was playing through injuries (elbow and groin) and didn’t want to risk extra contact as much. It also did not help that the Seahawks did not flourish with a running game in Kenneth Walker’s second season. In fact, they ranked 31st in carries last year and finished 22nd in 2022.
They put a lot on Geno in 2023, and while he didn’t improve on his career season, he didn’t implode or make himself look like a one-year wonder either.
Having said that, Smith’s inability to score on four possessions in the fourth quarter of a 17-13 loss to Cincinnati in Week 6 was a low point in his season. Have to take advantage of one of the few games where the defense did its job.
But in hindsight, that’s not the worst loss of the season for the Seahawks.
The Turning Point: Seahawks Lose 17-16 to Rams in Week 11
In Week 11, the 6-3 Seahawks were on the road against the 3-6 Rams, and that game ended up being the turning point for both teams. Seattle led 13-0 in the first half and 16-7 going into the fourth quarter.
But Smith injured his elbow and backup Drew Lock came into the game in the fourth quarter. The offense was not moving with Lock, and he threw an interception with 6:43 left that effectively served as a punt. The Rams put together a long drive for a go-ahead field goal with 1:31 left.
Smith came back into the game and tried to play through the injury to lead a game-winning drive. He found DK Metcalf for a good gain, but then the hurry-up offense decided to call a run before Smith spiked the ball with only seconds left. Maybe they should have dialed up another pass to get closer, because the run only gained 2 yards, and that set Jason Myers up for a 55-yard field goal.
He missed the kick with 3 seconds left and the Rams won 17-16. That led to the Rams going on a hot streak and finishing 10-7 to make the playoffs while the Seahawks finished 9-8.
To Lock’s credit, he helped the Seahawks get an unexpected win with an epic game-winning drive against the collapsing Eagles on a Monday night in Week 15. But you have to wonder what might have happened if Smith never got injured in Week 11 and the Seahawks held on to beat the Rams.
That’s how tiny the margins can be in the NFL.
Seattle Seahawks Offseason Review
It’s a new era with a rookie coach replacing a legend in Pete Carroll. But we’ll get into what Mike Macdonald can bring over from Baltimore to help give Smith a better defense in the next section. Let’s look at what to expect from a new pair of coordinators for the Seahawks this year.
New Offensive Coordinator: Ryan Grubb
Offensive coordinator Shane Waldron did a solid job for the Seahawks, but he is with the Bears now in that role. The new OC is Ryan Grubb, and it’s always an important hire for a defensive-minded coach to get the right person for this role.
Grubb is 48 years old but a rookie in the NFL. He has spent many years in the college game, coaching up offensive lines with an emphasis on the running game. He’s been a quarterbacks coach as well at Fresno State, and he was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach with Washington the past two seasons where they had a lot of big passing numbers and offensive success under quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
The transition from a passer like Penix to Smith should be a smooth one for Grubb. This offense still has its talented receiving corps intact with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba can get even better after his rookie season finished with 628 yards and 4 touchdowns.
The skill players are very solid, but the offensive line is a big hurdle for Grubb to work around. The Seahawks have young tackles (Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas) who have yet to deliver in the NFL. They added veteran left guard Laken Tomlinson, but he hasn’t been an asset for any team in a few years. The rest of the interior is very young and unproven too.
Look for the Seahawks to invest in the offensive line next offseason if these young players do not pan out this year. Fortunately, Smith is decent at getting rid of the ball without taking excessive sacks. But this weakness in the trenches is likely going to hold the Seahawks back from being an elite offense this year.
But above average is more than doable.
New Defensive Coordinator: Aden Durde
To this point, Aden Durde’s claim to fame is that he is the first British-born defensive coordinator in NFL history. It is a big promotion for him as he has followed Dan Quinn, who used to be the DC in Seattle under Carroll, from Atlanta (2016-20) to Dallas (2021-23). Durde coached the defensive line in Dallas for the last three seasons.
In Seattle, expectations are that Macdonald will largely be calling the shots on this defense. It is no surprise the first draft pick of the Macdonald era was a defensive player as the team took the top defensive tackle prospect in Byron Murphy from Texas.
Durde will enjoy using Murphy with a veteran line consisting of Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Johnathan Hankins (from Dallas), and Dre’Mont Jones.
The linebackers are more anonymous with future Hall of Famer Bobby Wagner leaving the team for a second time to join Washington. But the Seahawks added Jerome Baker, who made 82 starts with the Dolphins and is a solid player.
The secondary will try to rally around corner Devon Witherspoon, who had a very respectable rookie season as a high draft pick. He made the Pro Bowl and finished fourth in Defensive Rookie of the Year voting.
The Seahawks signed safety Rayshawn Jenkins from the Jaguars to be a new starter. Safety Julian Love made the Pro Bowl last year for the Seahawks despite allowing 292 yards in coverage by Week 3. At least his numbers improved greatly for the rest of the season.
This Year’s Narrative: How Far Can Macdonald Take the Defense in Year 1?
In today’s NFL, there is a stigma for hiring a defensive-minded coach given the way offensive results, especially passing, are the driving force behind wins and losses. It’s also easier to consistently win behind offense than it is defense.
This is why most new coaching hires in the last decade are from the offensive side of the ball. NFL teams want people with connections to Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and Sean McVay. Bill Belichick, a defensive mastermind, is the most successful coach of all time, but his coaching tree has largely been a bust. Mike Tomlin is now the longest-tenured coach in Pittsburgh, and his coaching tree essentially doesn’t exist. These teams want those offensive minds.
Macdonald’s Fit with the Seahawks
The offensive slant in the league makes hiring someone like Mike Macdonald risky by nature, but it’s less of a risk if you think you have your quarterback and offense sorted out. While Geno Smith is probably never going to compete for MVP awards with the best quarterbacks in the game, he’s been good enough to drag teams with poor defenses to 9-8 records the last two years:
- In 2022, the Seahawks allowed 401 points and ranked 22nd in yards per drive and 24th in points allowed per drive.
- In 2023, the Seahawks allowed 402 points and ranked 29th in yards per drive and 29th in points allowed per drive.
Imagine if the Seattle defense could improve to No. 14 or so in points allowed this year. Suddenly, that 9-8 can turn into a 10-7 or 11-6 record. For as great of a coach as Carroll was in Seattle, the last time he had a defense ranked in the top 10 in yards or points allowed was 2016. It was time for a change.
Macdonald comes in with lofty expectations from Baltimore, one of the few franchises in NFL history that has sustained defensive success over a long period of time. Macdonald joined the Ravens as an intern in 2014. He coached the defensive backs in 2017, and the linebackers in 2018-20, then took a defensive coordinator job at Michigan in 2021.
It was during that 2021 season with Macdonald in the college game that Baltimore’s defense fell off, allowing over 30 points in six games and finishing 29th in takeaways. Injuries to the secondary didn’t help, but this was a defense that gave up 402 yards passing to Carson Wentz in Week 5 too.
Macdonald returned to the Ravens in 2022 to serve as their defensive coordinator for the first time. They had some issues with holding leads, but they improved across the board on defense and returned to the playoffs.
In 2023, Macdonald’s Baltimore defense made history as the only defense since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways. In the playoffs, the Ravens held C.J. Stroud and the Texans to 3 points on offense, and they shut out Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the second half of the AFC Championship Game despite the 17-10 loss. The defense did its part that day.
While the Ravens had some very good defensive players that Macdonald will miss not having in Seattle, let’s not act like he was coaching an all-star lineup there when setting a record last season. The Ravens have had star-studded casts before with Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Haloti Ngata, and Terrell Suggs. This was not on that level.
The 2023 Ravens were led in sacks by defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, who had a fourth-year breakout with 13 sacks. The hope in Seattle would be that by drafting Murphy in the first round, Macdonald can get him playing at a Pro Bowl level much sooner than that.
The Ravens also got 9.5 sacks out of Jadeveon Clowney, which tied a career-high for the 30-year-old former No. 1 pick who has always been overhyped. Macdonald’s defense also got a career-high 9.0 sacks out of 32-year-old journeyman Kyle Van Noy.
Linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen are solid players, but let’s not act like they are irreplaceable or impossible to find. The Ravens traded for Smith from the Bears, and they let Queen walk to rival Pittsburgh this offseason instead of inking him to a second contract.
Safety Kyle Hamilton looks like a heck of a player, and he had his first All-Pro selection in his second season last year. But the Seahawks drafted Witherspoon high last year and he can be the centerpiece of a secondary for Macdonald to build up in Seattle too. Seattle fans would love to have a safety again up to the caliber of Earl Thomas or Kam Chancellor but give it some time. The draft didn’t turn out that way this year.
Macdonald is no doubt going to a team with a much lesser defense talent-wise than the Ravens had last year. But it’s hard not to improve on finishing 29th in yards and points per drive.
Or is it?
Recent Results for Defensive Coaching Hires
Recent negativity about hiring defensive coaches is not unwarranted. If you look at the list of defensive-minded rookie coaches hired in the last decade or so, the list is largely a huge flop outside of Sean McDermott (Bills), Mike Vrabel (Titans), and DeMeco Ryans is off to a great start with the Texans last year.
The following table looks at all 12 rookie coaches hired in 2016-23 who are defensive coaches. These were all first-time NFL head coaches, and none of them were in-house promotions. Included is the team’s record and rank in points per drive allowed the year before the coach was hired, and where they finished in record and points per drive allowed during the coach’s rookie season.
|
Coach |
Year | Team | Y N-1 Rec. | Pts/Dr | Rk Rec. | Pts/Dr | Status |
| Jonathan Gannon | 2023 | ARI | 4-13 | 30 | 4-13 | 31 | Year 2 |
| DeMeco Ryans | 2023 | HOU | 3-13-1 | 14 | 10-7 | 13 | Year 2 |
| Matt Eberflus | 2022 | CHI | 6-11 | 24 | 3-14 | 32 | Year 3 |
| Brandon Staley | 2021 | LAC | 7-9 | 22 | 9-8 | 29 | Fired (3 Yrs) |
| Robert Saleh | 2021 | NYJ | 2-14 | 24 | 4-13 | 32 | Year 4 |
| Brian Flores | 2019 | MIA | 7-9 | 27 | 5-11 | 32 | Fired (3 Yrs) |
| Vic Fangio | 2019 | DEN | 6-10 | 9 | 7-9 | 7 | Fired (3 Yrs) |
| Mike Vrabel | 2018 | TEN | 9-7 | 17 | 9-7 | 4 | Fired (6 Yrs) |
| Matt Patricia | 2018 | DET | 9-7 | 16 | 6-10 | 17 | Fired (3 Yrs) |
| Steve Wilks | 2018 | ARI | 8-8 | 11 | 3-13 | 22 | Fired (1 Yr) |
| Vance Joseph | 2017 | DEN | 9-7 | 3 | 5-11 | 15 | Fired (2 Yrs) |
| Sean McDermott | 2017 | BUF | 7-9 | 22 | 9-7 | 23 | Year 8 |
Maybe expecting a defensive boost in Seattle in 2024 under Macdonald is no sure thing. In this table, 9-of-12 teams actually finished worse in points per drive allowed with their new coach. In 5-of-6 cases since 2019, these teams finished 29th to 32nd in points per drive allowed, which is abysmal for a supposed defensive guru.
Of the 12 coaches, DeMeco Ryans is the only one who helped his team to more than two extra wins over the previous year. But even the Texans only finished one spot higher in points per drive allowed under Ryans last year, and a lot of his success was thanks to having a great offense and young quarterback in C.J. Stroud who almost never turned the ball over and put the defense in bad spots.
Vic Fangio also helped the Broncos get a little stingier on defense in 2019, but like Vance Joseph before him, he could never find a quarterback to have a confident offense and was fired after a few years.
The only person who really got some immediate results on his defense was Mike Vrabel in Tennessee, which improved from No. 17 to No. 4 in points allowed per drive in 2018. A year later, the Titans were in the AFC Championship Game in Kansas City. He was fired this year after another disappointing finish, and that 2019 season remains the only year where the Titans won any playoff games under Vrabel.
Sustained success in the NFL is very difficult, especially if you don’t have the right quarterback in place. McDermott may have been fired from Buffalo years ago if Josh Allen hadn’t panned out. For all we know, Macdonald could be on the quarterback hunt next offseason if Smith regresses and the team finishes with a losing record this year.
Best Bets for the 2024 Seahawks
Having just cast some doubt on Macdonald’s ability to turn this defense around in Year 1, I do still like the hire. I like the idea of a coach improving the defense for a team that is sorted out at the skill positions. Not a fan of the offensive line by any means, but we’ll see what a fresh coaching staff can do with this group.
But what does the schedule look like? Remember, the Seahawks were only the third-best team in their own division last year, and they needed six game-winning drives to get to 9-8. That could be prime for some close-game regression, and the only quality team they really beat that was close to full strength was Detroit in Week 2 in overtime. This could be a year where they fall back, but let’s see what pops out in this schedule:
- A very favorable start with the Broncos and Patriots, who could be starting rookie quarterbacks or Jacoby Brissett in New England’s case.
- Miami at home (Week 3) is preferable to going to Miami in September weather.
- Probably can’t count on beating Detroit in Detroit (Week 4) in a shootout for the third year in a row.
- Giants at home (Week 5) is very winnable.
- San Francisco has been a huge problem for this team, but you have to think they can at least split with Arizona and the Rams and finish with a few NFC West wins.
- Buffalo is a tough home game (Week 8), but you never know when Josh Allen is feeling charitable with turnovers.
- The Seahawks could see rookie quarterbacks in back-to-back weeks with the Vikings (J.J. McCarthy) and Bears (Caleb Williams) in Weeks 16-17. They shouldn’t go 0-2 in that stretch unless the season is already a loss.
- Finishing Week 18 at the Rams could determine the final wild-card spot in the NFC.
Have to agree with the sportsbooks’ notion that the Seahawks are not a confident playoff team in 2024. But when it comes to over/under 7.5 wins? In keeping the offensive core intact and having much room to grow on defense, I have to think 8-9 (or better) is more than doable for this team. In his four seasons as a full-time starter, Smith has gone over 7.5 wins in 3-of-4 seasons.
Best case scenario? The Seahawks sweep the Rams to finish second in the NFC West and improve to the middle of the pack defensively, and that’s enough to snag a wild card spot again. Unfortunately, they do not advance past wild card weekend.
Worst case scenario? The inexperienced coaching staff botches a lot of close-game situations, Tyler Lockett starts looking like a 32-year-old receiver on the decline, JSN doesn’t take off in his second season, the offensive line is a mess, and Murphy is a role player at best on defense in Year 1.
But the thing no one wants to see is Smith getting hurt and Sam Howell, who might as well change his first name to Sack, playing behind this offensive line. Let’s give Geno a fair shake with a better defense and see what he can do.
NFL Pick: Seattle Seahawks over 7.5 wins (-138 at FanDuel)
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