NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13 Thanksgiving and Black Friday Special

Scott Kacsmar27/11/2024 - 12:08 pm

Josh Jacobs of the Green Bay Packers — (Photo by Rich Storry/Getty Images)

The NFL has officially taken over the Thanksgiving holiday. Sure, we have spent decades watching the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys host games on Thursday, but the third game in prime time is a more recent addition since the mid-2000s. Now there’s a Black Friday game on Friday afternoon as well. The NFL sure knows how to hijack the holidays and get us to make NFL picks.

But we’re still glad to do it. This year’s lineup has an interesting Bears-Lions matchup for the first time this season, and don’t forget the Bears were oh so close to sweeping Detroit last year. It’s hard to drum up any hype for Giants-Cowboys, but we figured out a bet for that game anyway. The Dolphins-Packers game looked like a dud a month ago, but now it’s important for both teams and the highlight of this week’s holiday slate. Then on Friday, we’ll see if Aidan O’Connell and the Raiders can shock the Chiefs at Arrowhead once again.

We’ll be back Friday with the rest of our Week 13 NFL picks. Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick-off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Bears at Lions: Not Saying There Won’t Be a Parade But…

The Detroit Lions (10-1) are enjoying their finest season in the Super Bowl era, and they currently rank No. 1 in scoring offense and No. 2 in scoring defense. Their +177 scoring differential is the best in the NFL and is only bested in franchise history by the +179 for the 1934 Lions, who finished 10-3.

This has been a dominant Detroit team, so it is not surprising to see them as a 10.5-point home favorite on Thanksgiving against the Bears (4-7). However, division games are weird and hard to predict. Just look at last year when the Lions needed a 12-point comeback in the final 4:00 to beat the Bears at home, then lost 28-13 in Chicago in the rematch a few weeks later. Chicago coach Matt Eberflus may have a poor record and is abysmal at winning close games, but he’s had some recent success at playing the Lions tough. Jared Goff had multiple turnovers in both games last year.

Plus, look at the Bears this season. They just played the Packers and Vikings for the first time each this season, and they were a blocked field goal away from beating Green Bay, and they shocked the Vikings on Sunday by taking them to overtime in a 30-27 loss. The only games this year where the Bears lost by more than 10 points were against the Cardinals (29-9) and Patriots (19-3) in back-to-back terrible performances that preceded these solid performances in defeat against the NFC North the last two weeks.

With that said, I do not think Bears +10.5 is the single best bet from this game even with Caleb Williams impressing these last two games. His first Detroit game could always go south. But I do like the team total and taking the under on Detroit at 29.5 points.

The Bears just allowed 30 points for the first time all season against Minnesota, and that only happened in overtime. They’ve held 9-of-11 opponents to 21 points or fewer this season as that is a legitimately good defense, and it had some good moments against the Packers and Commanders (quality opponents) in losses. They also held the Texans to 19 points in Week 2 when Houston was still healthy with their weapons. The Bears are not the Jaguars and Titans, two AFC South teams who gave up 52 points to Detroit recently by coughing up the ball and bad special teams play.

The Lions only scored 24 points in Indy last week, and they’ve been held under 27 points more times (6) this season than they have topped 30 points (5). Throw in David Montgomery and tackle Taylor Decker being banged up, and I like the Bears to keep them under 30 points in this game.

That doesn’t mean the Lions still can’t go to the Super Bowl this year. I’m just not ready to give them a 30-point turkey burger for Thanksgiving against a division foe with a good defense.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Lions Under 29.5 Team Total (-106 at FanDuel)

2. Dolphins at Packers: Fading Mike McDaniel Again on the Frozen Tundra

The Miami Dolphins are a 3.5-point road underdog in Green Bay this Thursday night where the temperatures could dip into the low 20s during the game. Historically, that’s not a good thing for the team from Florida, but their bigger issue may be facing a good team on the road that has an 8-3 record, a very good quarterback in Jordan Love, and a defense that is great at splash plays.

The damning stat is that Miami coach Mike McDaniel is on a 10-game losing streak in road games against teams that make the playoffs.

He actually won his first game in this split in September 2022, a 42-38 comeback win in Baltimore after the Dolphins trailed by 21 points. But since then, it’s been 10 straight losses, and that number could actually be 12 straight if the Seahawks (leading the NFC West) and Bills (likely AFC East winner) make the playoffs this season. The Dolphins already lost to those teams this year on the road.

So, this could be a 13th straight loss on the road to a playoff team. You might ask how many of those games was he only an underdog of 3.5 points or better. He is still 1-6 ATS and 1-6 SU when the spread is that small or in his favor.

Beyond that, the Dolphins rarely score a lot of points in these games. During the losing streak, their top three scoring games were 31, 29, and 20 points. Throw in 27 points this year in Buffalo, and the problem with this trend is that all four games are in Buffalo, a division rival where familiarity matters.

This is a non-conference opponent in Green Bay, a team McDaniel lost to 26-20 at home on Christmas in 2022. That was the game where Tua Tagovailoa had another concussion and threw three interceptions.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins — (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Tagovailoa is playing very well right now, but Miami’s winning streak has come against the likes of the Rams, Raiders, and Patriots. This is a step up in competition on the road in cold weather, the exact situation the Dolphins do not excel at. The Packers haven’t exactly been a dominant team this year, but they are 8-3 and coming off an impressive 38-10 win over the 49ers, and they lead the NFL with 22 takeaways.

I’m going with the losing streak to continue for Miami against good teams on the road, and I also like the Packers to hold them under 22.5 points on a freezing night.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Dolphins Under 22.5 Points & Packers ML (+111 at FanDuel)

3. Giants at Cowboys: Get It Over Early So I Can Nap

This Giants-Cowboys game is worse than usual with Dak Prescott out for the year, the Cowboys having a terrible season, and the Giants are even in worse shape than usual. We don’t know if Tommy DeVito or Drew Lock will start at quarterback, but we’re going with a first-quarter prop parlay just to get this one over with early so we can take a nap after the big dinner:

Malik Nabers 10+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter
CeeDee Lamb 10+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter

Just feed the best receiver in these offenses. CeeDee Lamb is usually a lock for early production in Dallas, and Cooper Rush has done a good enough job of finding him the last few games.

Malik Nabers is the riskier one, but we love the gamble after he didn’t get a single target in the first half on Sunday against Tampa Bay, and he was clearly mad and confused about it after the game, pointing the blame on the coaches.

Let’s hope they listened, and no matter which quarterback is in the game, they have to get their star rookie the ball early and often.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Malik Nabers 10+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter & CeeDee Lamb 10+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter (+156 at FanDuel)

4. Raiders at Chiefs: Kansas City Revenge Game

The Kansas City Chiefs (10-1) have not lost a home game since Christmas 2023 when they underestimated the Las Vegas Raiders in an ugly performance in a 20-14 loss. That was such a weird game as the Raiders scored two defensive touchdowns in a span of 7 seconds, and they did not complete a pass after the first quarter as they held onto the win.

Do you think the Chiefs will take this game lightly this time? They also didn’t look pleased with their 30-27 win in Carolina after blowing a 14-point lead and having to win on a last-second field goal. The offense played great, minus the poor pass protection, and the defense was very suspect as it made Bryce Young look like a young star for the Panthers. The defense has had its two worst games of the last two years in consecutive weeks in Buffalo and Carolina.

But while I think the 12.5-point spread is a bit absurd for where the Chiefs are as a team right now, I like them in this spot to blow the Raiders out. Keep in mind, a blowout by Kansas City standards would be 13 points like they already did this season when they beat the Saints 26-13. They were also up by 14 late in Vegas in Week 8 before Gardner Minshew got the backdoor cover with a late touchdown drive in a 27-20 Kansas City win.

But it’s likely going to be Aidan O’Connell at quarterback after Minshew broke his collarbone. O’Connell is the quarterback who couldn’t complete a pass after the first quarter in Arrowhead last year, and he likely won’t have a running game to help him out this time as the Raiders just can’t get it done on the ground this year, and the Chiefs are very good at stopping the run. It’s the thing they do best defensively this year.

However, one major flaw for the Chiefs’ defense all year has been covering tight ends. Brock Bowers has been incredible as a rookie and could even be an All-Pro as early as this season. Let’s bet on him to reach 50 yards even with the quarterback situation being what it is as he’s been great for the Raiders and they don’t have much else to throw to.

Even with Bowers’ contributions, the Raiders are one-dimensional on offense, and it’s not like O’Connell is a proven starter. The Raiders have already lost five games this year by at least 13 points, including a 36-22 loss to Andy Dalton’s Panthers. This is a bad football team that shouldn’t catch the Chiefs sleepwalking on another holiday like last Christmas.

In the end, I think the Chiefs buck the conventional wisdom that they can’t cover a big spread anymore and they manage to win this game by at least 13 points to get the cover. We’re parlaying that with Bowers’ prop for +193 odds.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chiefs -12.5 & Brock Bowers 50+ Receiving Yards (+193 at FanDuel)

5. Raiders at Chiefs: A Record-Setting Touchdown for Mahomes & Kelce

Sticking with the Black Friday game, there’s a very interesting milestone in reach for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, and they could make history together on the same snap by making sure Mahomes’ next touchdown pass goes to his favorite receiver.

Mahomes has thrown 237 touchdowns in the regular season, which ties him with Len Dawson for the franchise record. Kelce has caught 76 touchdowns in the regular season, which ties him with Tony Gonzalez for the franchise record. Obviously, one more for each is the franchise record, and those are two records they can look to put out of reach in their lifetimes.

Doing it at home against the Raiders would no doubt be a special way to accomplish this as Kelce has 12 touchdowns in his career against them, including a game in 2022 where he caught four scores. His first touchdown in the 2024 season was also in Vegas against this defense. Mahomes has thrown four touchdowns to TE2 Noah Gray these last two weeks, so it’s time to go back to the old reliable.

Whether they set the record together or not, I think a Kelce touchdown is going to happen in this game, but we can play it in a way to maximize the odds other than just betting on a Kelce anytime touchdown (+120 at FanDuel). I’m not going to say do the first touchdown (+550) of the game going to Kelce, because you never know when the running back will steal that, or if the Raiders show up early and get it against this struggling defense.

But we just picked the Chiefs to cover a 12.5-point spread in the previous pick, so obviously we see them scoring early and often in this game. That’s why I would go with a Kelce anytime touchdown in the first half to try to time it so that it’s the first one Mahomes throws in the game, which I’m sure they’ll work on timing up as well.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Travis Kelce Anytime 1st Half Touchdown Scorer (+240 at FanDuel)

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce — (Photo by William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

6. Thanksgiving Touchdown Scorer Parlay

We have a 4-leg touchdown scorer parlay with one touchdown scorer from each game in this holiday special. The theme is a clear one: Trust the running backs.

David Montgomery vs. Bears: He left Sunday’s game banged up, but if he’s active, he’s scoring against his former team on Thanksgiving. That should be a given in this game, and frankly, most weeks are automatic for Montgomery and the end zone.

Rico Dowdle vs. Giants: The riskiest pick of the four, but Dowdle scored a touchdown against the Giants in the earlier matchup this year, and that was a reception as he hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown yet in 2024 despite 112 carries. It’s time to end that streak and get him in the end zone (one way or another) against a terrible run defense that gave up a rushing touchdown to four different Buccaneers last week.

Josh Jacobs vs. Dolphins: Again, let’s not overthink it. The Packers need to punch the Florida team in the mouth in the cold weather, so Josh Jacobs is a great way to do that in this matchup. He just scored three rushing touchdowns against the 49ers, and he has scored in 4-of-5 games going into Thursday night.

Isiah Pacheco vs. Raiders: I wouldn’t fault anyone for sliding the Travis Kelce touchdown in this spot for higher odds, but it sounds like Isiah Pacheco is ready to return to action for his first game since Week 2. He may split time with Kareem Hunt, but he scored touchdowns in both games against the Raiders last year, including his only game with multiple touchdowns. He’ll be ready to explode after all this time off, and we again predict a very good game for the Kansas City offense, so finishing a drive in the red zone with a power run by Pacheco instead of trickery should happen at least once here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Rico Dowdle Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+711 at FanDuel)

7. “All the Leftovers” NFL Picks Parlay

Finally, we have a 6-leg parlay with over +3300 odds for a variety of leftover picks from the four games. Feel free to play it as is or mix and match your favorite picks from here and above to create your own holiday parlay.

Caleb Williams (Bears) 200+ Passing Yards
Jameson Williams (Lions) Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
Malik Nabers (Giants) 6+ Receptions
Rico Dowdle (Cowboys) 50+ Rushing Yards
Jonnu Smith (Dolphins) 4+ Receptions
Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) to Record a 30+ Yard Reception

Caleb Williams has played well the last two weeks, he’s gone over 200 yards in 6-of-11 games this season, and the game script should be favorable to a heavy throwing day from the Bears to keep pace with Detroit’s scoring.

Jameson Williams has had at least 79 yards in all four home games this season, so they usually cook up something good for his speed in Detroit. We just saw the Bears get destroyed by a secondary receiver like Jordan Addison, so maybe the Lions can try that too instead of always forcing Amon-Ra St. Brown the ball.

We mentioned earlier about getting Malik Nabers the ball early and often, but he still finished with 6 catches on Sunday despite no targets in the first half. He already had a season-high 12 catches against Dallas earlier this season, so we’re being modest with half that amount here, and yes, it doesn’t matter who the quarterback is. He’s right about that.

Rico Dowdle had 46 rushing yards in a Week 4 win against the Giants, but his role has increased since then. He had 86 yards in Washington last week and he’s also had a game with 87 rushing yards in a win against the Steelers. The Cowboys are favored to win this game by 3.5 points, the Giants are a terrible run defense, so Dowdle should be able to crank out at least 50 yards here.

The Dolphins have been thriving in the passing game with tight end Jonnu Smith as of late. Maybe on a cold night, the tight end will be even more of a favorite weapon for Tua Tagovailoa instead of those speedy wideouts (Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle) against that secondary. We’ll give Smith at least 4 catches, a mark he has hit in 7-of-11 games this season, including 6-of-7 games going into Thursday.

Our longshot leg is the last one with Xavier Worthy to record a 30+ yard reception against the Raiders (+330 at FanDuel). Obviously, feel free to sub in anything you want from above for the last leg on Friday as we’ve already highlighted the Kansas City spread, touchdowns for Kelce and Pacheco, and a good game for Bowers.

But this is another gut pick where Mahomes and Worthy get it right on a deep ball for a big gain after Worthy had some problems staying in bounds against the Buccaneers and Bills in the last month. Maybe the return of Pacheco in the ground game will help sell a play-action fake and you’ll see Worthy running wide open for a huge gain that they complete this time.

At least, it makes theoretical sense. Enjoy the football, the feast, and the family members you still talk to.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Caleb Williams 200+ Passing Yards & Jameson Williams Over 47.5 Receiving Yards & Malik Nabers 6+ Receptions & Rico Dowdle 50+ Rushing Yards & Jonnu Smith 4+ Receptions & Xavier Worthy to Record a 30+ Yard Reception (+3348 at FanDuel)

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