Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Super Bowl 59

Scott Kacsmar07/02/2025 - 05:11 pm

KANSAS CITY, MISSOURI - JANUARY 26: Wide receiver Xavier Worthy #1 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates after completing a catch during the first half of the AFC Championship game against the Buffalo Bills, at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on January 26, 2025 in Kansas City, Missouri. — (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

The NFL has reached Super Bowl LIX, and we already had an epic preview detailing the matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. We already made it clear that we’re leaning towards the Chiefs pulling off the three-peat, but now is the time to make our final NFL picks for the 2024 season.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. One More Time: The Best Bet of the Season

For the last time this season, why not back what has been the 2024 season’s best bet? The Kansas City Chiefs winning a game by 1-13 points.

This should have been the top bet for the Conference Championship Games instead of shoehorning it into a parlay that didn’t hit because Jayden Daniels and Patrick Mahomes rushed for three touchdowns instead of throwing three more that day.

Including the playoffs, the 2024 Chiefs have won 15 games by 1-13 points, a single-season record that replaced the 2003 Patriots (14). That means all but two wins by the Chiefs have been by more than 13 points, and we know Patrick Mahomes has only lost one game since New Year’s Eve 2023.

We also know the Eagles have only lost one game by more than 3 points this season (33-16 in Tampa Bay). It’s going to be a tough game, it should be a close game, but in recapping the finer points of our Super Bowl preview, it should be the Chiefs coming out on top:

Patrick Mahomes got the ball out quickly the last month and he is 45-2 when his average time to throw is under 2.8 seconds.
Quarterbacks have the sixth-fastest release time against the Eagles this season (2.59 seconds).
Mahomes is 8-0 vs. Vic Fangio and 16-0 indoors.
Every QB rematch or recent rematch in Super Bowl history has been a sweep, and the Chiefs beat the Eagles two years ago in Super Bowl 57.
Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has not allowed a 90-yard rusher in 18 playoff games (16-2 record).
The Chiefs are still 10-3 when allowing a 100-yard rusher in their last 13 opportunities.
The Chiefs have never gone four straight games without a turnover, and Philadelphia’s +10 turnover margin (+6 in fumbles) is not sustainable.
Chiefs should have an edge on special teams.
Using my Fraud Alert Rating metric, the team with the lower rating (Chiefs) are 15-6 in playoff games since 2002 where the spread is no bigger than 2 points.
Silly rabbit, haven’t you heard it’s rigged for the Chiefs to win?

The Chiefs aren’t blowing teams out, but they almost always find a way to win. One more win from the three-peat.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chiefs by 1-13 Points (+145 at FanDuel)

2. Hurts? Barkley? How About Both?

Our next pick is a 2-leg touchdown scorer parlay with Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts. Why decide between the two when they both should score? They each scored three touchdowns against the Commanders last time out.

Barkley is on a heater, and it wouldn’t be shocking at all to see him score another long touchdown. Besides, how are you going to bet against the guy on his birthday in the biggest game of his career?

Then with Hurts, he’s scored five rushing touchdowns in his last two games against the Chiefs, including three in Super Bowl 57. He won’t fail on the Tush Push the way Josh Allen did last week. I trust them both to score in this game.

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - JANUARY 26: Saquon Barkley #26 of the Philadelphia Eagles stands on the field in the NFC Championship Game against the Washington Commanders at Lincoln Financial Field on January 26, 2025 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. — (Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)

Another idea is you can bet at FanDuel that either Barkley or Hurts will score two touchdowns (+165).

Scott’s NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+198 at FanDuel)

3. Tight Ends Make Immediate Impact

Our next pick utilizes the first drive and first quarter player props for both tight ends, Travis Kelce and Dallas Goedert, to have an immediate impact:

Travis Kelce to Catch a Pass on the Chiefs’ First Drive
Dallas Goedert 5+ Yards in 1st Quarter

You know Andy Reid loves a great opening drive script, and they’ve gone to Kelce on the opening drive of the last two Super Bowls. The Commanders went to Zach Ertz twice on their opening drive two weeks ago, and Ertz finished that game with 11 catches. An easy throw to Kelce is a great way for Mahomes to settle into the game.

We won’t get fancy and look for the Eagles to answer the same on their opening drive to Dallas Goedert. But he should be in line for a big game, and one pass his way in the opening quarter should be enough to get him 5 yards. He had a 13-yard catch on the opening drive of Super Bowl 57 against the Chiefs.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Travis Kelce to Catch a Pass on the Chiefs’ First Drive & Dallas Goedert 5+ Yards in 1st Quarter (+204 at FanDuel)

4. In Hunt We Trust

As we touched on earlier this week for Saquon Barkley, no running back has won Super Bowl MVP since Terrell Davis for the 1997 Broncos. Kareem Hunt isn’t going to win it for the Chiefs, but he is a player to trust to have a good game in this one.

Hunt has scored a touchdown in four straight games, and he’s gone over 43.5 yards in 3-of-4 games in that time. It looks like Andy Reid realizes Hunt is the better choice for lead back over Isiah Pacheco, who hasn’t looked the same since he was injured in September.

Hunt is a physical runner who should see a lot of light boxes if the Eagles defend the run the way they have this year with over 70% light boxes in the playoffs, the highest rate in the league.

The Chiefs have outrushed the Eagles in three straight meetings, and while that may not happen again because of Barkley’s presence, over 43.5 feels like a steal for Hunt as the Chiefs should not be looking to throw it 50 times this year.

I like a 2-leg parlay of Hunt going over 43.5 rushing yards and scoring another touchdown.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Kareem Hunt Over 43.5 Rushing Yards & Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+241 at FanDuel)

5. Xavier Worthy: Get Your Popcorn Ready

The Chiefs have done a historic job of winning Super Bowls with rookie wide receivers making significant contributions. They’ve done it in the past with Mecole Hardman (2019) and Rashee Rice (2023). They can do it again with Xavier Worthy, who has turned into the WR1 down the stretch here.

He’s not just a gadget player, and Mahomes seems to trust him more to win contested catches as we saw against Buffalo. Maybe the Chiefs can get Worthy lined up against rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in this one.

But another thing the Chiefs have done really well with in Super Bowls has been designing these little plays like “Popcorn” and “Tom & Jerry” to free up their wide receivers for touchdowns. They’ve done it the last two years with scoring plays for Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, and Hardman caught the game-winner in overtime last year in Vegas.

I don’t think the red zone connection is there between Mahomes and Marquise Brown or DeAndre Hopkins, but Worthy has a variety of ways he can score, and he’s done so in 4-of-5 games playing with Mahomes going into Sunday. Don’t forget he can run the ball too.

I like Worthy to go over in receiving yards (54.5) and score a touchdown by any means necessary.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 54.5 Receiving Yards & Xavier Worthy Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+249 at FanDuel)

6. The “Happy Birthday, Saquon Barkley” Parlay

If you can’t beat the Chiefs in a one-score game seeing how they’ve won 17 in a row, then how about the Buffalo route where you win by 9 or more points? This is what a 5-leg parlay looks like for a very happy 28th birthday for Saquon Barkley and the Eagles:

Saquon Barkley Over 109.5 Rushing Yards
Saquon Barkley to Score 2+ Touchdowns
Dallas Goedert 25+ Receiving Yards
Xavier Worthy 5+ Receptions
Eagles -8.5

Realistically, a Philadelphia win probably is more likely to come in a game that isn’t a razor-thin margin, because that’s where the Chiefs excel. So, Barkley hitting a homerun early, going over his rushing line, and scoring another touchdown to bring home a likely MVP award would be a plausible game script here.

Have to throw in some minimal yards from Dallas Goedert, who should have no problem clearing that line if the offense is playing this well.

Then you have to expect the Chiefs to throw more to catch up, and Worthy has been catching 5+ balls every week since December. He seems like a likely candidate for the short ones that the Chiefs will throw while trailing by multiple scores.

Then you top it off with the alternate spread of the Eagles winning by 9+ points. It’s only something that’s happened to Mahomes five times, but if the Eagles can dominate the trenches and win the turnover battle, they’re the kind of team that can do it to the Chiefs.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Saquon Barkley Over 109.5 Rushing Yards & Saquon Barkley to Score 2 Touchdowns & Dallas Goedert 25+ Receiving Yards & Xavier Worthy 5+ Receptions & Eagles -8.5 (+2203 at FanDuel)

7. Super Bowl LIX Super Parlay

Finally, for our last pick of this NFL season, we have a 9-leg parlay with over +7000 odds that will hopefully produce a classic Super Bowl:

Jalen Hurts 250+ Passing Yards
Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Patrick Mahomes Over 28.5 Rushing Yards
Marquise Brown 25+ Receiving Yards
DeAndre Hopkins to Record a 10+ Yard Reception
Eagles +10.5
Chiefs +10.5
Over 41.5 Points
Under 55.5 Points

Let’s not forget that Jalen Hurts threw for 246 yards against Washington in a blowout win his last game out. He has his most passing yards in the regular season (387) and in the playoffs (304) against the Chiefs, and this is the fourth year in a row he’s seeing Steve Spagnuolo’s defense. Playing Mahomes makes you feel the need to produce more offense, and the Chiefs may sell out to stop the run.

(Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Eagles should take advantage of the aggressive blitzing from the Chiefs and utilize their talent against all that man coverage. Another player who should go off that we’ve already mentioned twice above is tight end Dallas Goedert. The Chiefs allowed the most receiving yards to tight ends this year, and Goedert has been the team’s leading receiver this postseason.

Let’s also point out that the game is in the Superdome where the Eagles played in Week 3, and Hurts had his only 300-yard passing game this season, and Goedert had a career-high 10 catches for 170 yards. Maybe they can recreate some of that magic against a defense that has looked vulnerable at times at giving up big plays.

Turning over the Chiefs side of things, it’s the Super Bowl, and it’s for the three-peat. Why wouldn’t Patrick Mahomes go all out and run as often as he can when there’s a lane? He had over 40 yards in Super Bowl 57 despite playing on a high-ankle sprain. The only fear with betting on his rushing yards in a playoff game is him taking huge kneeldowns to run out the clock. Super Bowl 54 bettors remember it well. But he should go over 28.5 yards here.

Marquise Brown has been a solid addition late in the season. He didn’t catch a pass against the Texans, but he dropped a big play. Mahomes has solid chemistry with him despite little time together. I like him to get at least 25 yards in this game.

DeAndre Hopkins is another midseason acquisition for the Chiefs. He’s been very quiet with just 3 catches for 18 yards in his last three games combined. But playing in his first Super Bowl, this feels like a great spot for the veteran and probable Hall of Famer to make at least one key catch for 10+ yards against those tough corners like Darius Slay and Quinyon Mitchell. Part of me wanted to go JuJu Smith-Schuster here, but maybe this is Hopkins’ turn to have a playoff moment for the Chiefs.

Finally, we’re looking at the spread and total. The Chiefs have been fluctuating between a 1 and 1.5-point favorite. The spread has been going between 48.5 and 49.5 points. It brings back memories of last Super Bowl when the line was set to 46.5 all week, then changed to 47.5 at the last minute, and the game ended 25-22. So, they were all over that one.

That’s why I think this game will also be decided by 1-to-10 points either way. Nineteen of the last 21 games have been within one score in the fourth quarter. They didn’t always end in that margin, but they are usually close games.

Finally, I took the total (48.5) and went up and down one touchdown to create a range of 42 to 55 points. I expect both teams to score at least 20 points, but I wouldn’t count on the teams to both score 30 like they did two years ago when the Eagles set the Super Bowl record for most points in a loss (35). These defenses are better than that.

But final scores like 27-24, 30-24, 26-22, 24-21, etc. all sound very realistic to me. Let’s hope it is that kind of game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts 250+ Passing Yards & Dallas Goedert Over 49.5 Receiving Yards & Patrick Mahomes Over 28.5 Rushing Yards & Marquise Brown 25+ Receiving Yards & DeAndre Hopkins to Record a 10+ Yard Reception & Eagles +10.5 & Chiefs +10.5 & Over 41.5 Points & Under 55.5 Points (+7044 at FanDuel)

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