Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Wild Card Weekend and Super Bowl 59 Pick

Scott Kacsmar10/01/2025 - 09:32 am

Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos — (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)

It’s playoff time in the NFL as wild card weekend features six games that we already previewed for both the AFC and NFC. Be sure to read those for more insight on why our NFL picks are what they are this week, and what combination of playoff results I like for the Super Bowl is revealed below.

In recapping our Week 18 picks, Mike Evans and Aaron Rodgers both came through with their teams. But Russell Wilson ran a horrible two-minute drill, Jahmyr Gibbs hogged all the touchdowns in Detroit, the Chiefs’ backups didn’t even try to beat Denver, and the Packers lost to the Bears for the first time since 2018.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Steelers at Ravens: Lamar’s Revenge Tour Begins

Everyone knows that Lamar Jackson is 2-4 in the playoffs with suboptimal statistics. He’s also 2-4 as a starter with very similar numbers against the Steelers in his career. Mix the Steelers and playoffs together, throw in a Zay Flowers’ knee injury that will keep Baltimore’s first Pro Bowl wideout sidelined, and you might have the ingredients for an upset.

But not so fast. The Steelers are their own special kind of awful in the playoffs, and they’re worse than what the Ravens have been under Lamar. Mike Tomlin has lost his last five playoff games, allowing at least 31 points each time, which is an NFL playoff record. No other team’s had more than three straight playoff games doing that. Tomlin’s defense also gets very few sacks or turnovers in these games while the offense provides plenty of both.

I’m not sure the Ravens will score 31 to continue this streak, which is why my best bet for the game is the spread and for the Ravens to win by double digits. The Steelers have lost four in a row, have played a lot of poor football, and they already lost 34-17 in Baltimore in Week 16 with Jackson playing well to already show that he can get it done against the Steelers. Pittsburgh also had no answers for Derrick Henry that day, and that’s a new element to this Baltimore offense for the playoffs they didn’t have before.

Let’s not also forget that Russell Wilson played his worst game this season at home against the Ravens despite the Steelers getting the win. He couldn’t find the end zone once, and when he tried, he threw a red zone pick. He also had a couple of really bad turnovers in Week 16, including a pick-six against this defense.

The Baltimore defense is also No. 1 in points allowed since that Week 11 meeting. They weren’t good to start the year, but they are back on track. Look for Pittsburgh’s playoff losing streak to continue.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Ravens -9.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

2. Broncos at Bills: Bo Knows Playoffs

Guess who leads the NFL in touchdown passes over the last seven games. If you said Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Jared Goff, you’d be wrong. Joe Burrow is technically right with 19, but he’s tied with rookie Bo Nix.

It’s been quite the turnaround for the rookie who didn’t throw a touchdown in his first three games this season despite 113 throws. But coach Sean Payton is cooking with his mobile version of Drew Brees, who doesn’t always pass the eye test with his accuracy, but Nix is putting up points and has the Broncos in the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

Nix has 10 games this season with multiple touchdown passes, which ties Justin Herbert (2020) for the rookie record. Nix has done it in seven of his last eight games too.

I get that the history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in the playoffs isn’t great, but Payton is a veteran coach, and the Broncos are playing well offensively. There’s also the fact that Buffalo’s defense isn’t elite this year, it’s allowed 28 touchdowns, and even someone like rookie Drake Maye threw 2 touchdown passes in Week 16 in his first game against Buffalo with less talent and worse coaching around him. The moment wasn’t too big for him in Buffalo.

Nix could always implode in the biggest game of his young career, but I’m going to take the value that he throws two touchdowns and gives his team a shot on the road.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Bo Nix Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+142 at FanDuel)

3. Chargers at Texans: That’s a Good Ladd

The Chargers finished this season strong offensively with Justin Herbert really looking good with his new receivers. But Ladd McConkey has emerged as an excellent No. 1 weapon after the team moved up to take him in the second round of a loaded draft class at the position.

McConkey finished with 82 catches for 1,149 yards. His consistency is the best part as he’s had at least 50 yards in the last 10 games, and he’s gone over his line this week (73.5 yards) seven times, including in his last three games.

The Texans have a great pass rush, but if you can block it, they are vulnerable in the secondary. McConkey is going to eat in his first playoff game, and it would be a surprise if he didn’t go over his line here.

But the other reason to like the Chargers to win as part of our player performance double pick here is their No. 1 scoring defense. They get a great matchup with a Houston offense that is struggling in the wake of multiple receiver injuries and a porous offensive line. The Chargers have not allowed more than 20 points in any road game this year, an impressive feat given they’ve played nine road games under the new schedule format.

Trust Jim Harbaugh to get Justin Herbert his first playoff win with McConkey contributing a lot to the win.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ladd McConkey Over 73.5 Receiving Yards & Chargers ML (+180 at FanDuel)

4. Vikings at Rams: Sam’s Safety Valve

This game has actually been moved to Arizona’s stadium from Los Angeles because of the destructive fires. The spread has gone another point in Minnesota’s favor as the Vikings try to recover from last week’s crushing 31-9 loss in Detroit with the No. 1 seed on the line.

Could the Rams try to play more man coverage to copy some of the things the Lions had success with? We’ll see, but some of their success at slowing down Sam Darnold last time was his left tackle (Christian Darrisaw) going down with a season-ending injury in the game. Hopefully, the Vikings won’t have to deal with anything like that this time, and they were shredding the Rams to start the game.

But I think a good way for Darnold to feel comfortable in his first real playoff game is to get easy passes to running back Aaron Jones whether it’s a screen or checkdown to the flat. Jones has had at least 20 receiving yards in four straight games, and in all six NFC North games this year, he had over 20 receiving yards.

Jones had 37 yards on 2 catches against the Rams in Week 8, so hopefully that rematch trend will hold true outside of the division too and he’ll come through with 20 yards through the air.

But I’m also going to trust Brian Flores’ defense to get a takeaway as they have every week, and Matthew Stafford hasn’t led the Rams to 20 points in three straight games. Maybe the team under (22.5) on the Rams is the better call here than the Minnesota moneyline, but I’m going to put my trust in the 14-win team figuring it out.

They also won’t be caught off guard by Puka Nacua playing this week like last time. You can’t miss that guy. He catches everything in this offense. But they also haven’t been getting other players involved lately, and it’s hard to see Stafford having as much success as he did in Week 8.

Also, if there’s a crazy facemask that’s so obvious this time, maybe the refs will call it for Minnesota for a change.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Aaron Jones Over 19.5 Receiving Yards & Vikings ML (+198 at FanDuel)

5. Packers at Eagles: Philly Sweep Parlay

We have a 4-leg parlay that is partial to the Eagles pulling off the sweep of the Packers after these teams played a 34-29 shootout in Brazil to open the season. Expect more defense this time around, and both quarterbacks are coming back from an injury late in the season, but it should still see some offensive stars shine.

Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A.J. Brown 50+ Receiving Yards
Josh Jacobs 50+ Rushing Yards
Eagles ML

The first pick is self-explanatory as Saquon Barkley had two touchdown runs in Week 1 in his Philadelphia debut. Maybe the Eagles will be mindful of Jalen Hurts returning from a concussion and not go Tush Push that much, especially at the goal line. Let Barkley get the short ones this week.

A.J. Brown had 119 yards in Week 1, the Packers won’t have corner Jaire Alexander again, and Brown usually produces. He’s only been held under 65 yards three times this year, so we feel very comfortable throwing him a 50-piece.

Speaking of which, this game should be a chance for Josh Jacobs to remind us that Saquon and Derrick Henry weren’t the only veteran backs to change teams for the better. Jacobs had 84 yards in Brazil against these Eagles, and he’s hit 50 yards in all but three games this year. With Jordan Love’s elbow injury, they may need to lean a little more on Jacobs here.

But between that elbow injury and the talent advantages the Eagles have at home, I like the Eagles to sweep Green Bay and get the win here. They are just a little better on both sides of the ball, and it’s hard to trust the Packers after the way they’ve played in big games this season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer & A.J. Brown 50+ Receiving Yards & Josh Jacobs 50+ Rushing Yards & Eagles ML (+273 at FanDuel)

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

6. Commanders at Buccaneers: Have It YourWay with NFL Picks

Our next pick is a 5-leg parlay using the YourWay feature at FanDuel. If you don’t have access to that, you should still be able to make an SGP out of these picks outside of maybe the first one. We’re expecting the Bucs to make it difficult on rookie Jayden Daniels and force him into being a one-man show again.

Jayden Daniels to record more rushing yards than Brian Robinson Jr.
Jayden Daniels 49+ Rushing Yards
Zach Ertz 3+ Receptions
Jalen McMillan 3+ Receptions
Baker Mayfield 2+ Passing Touchdowns

If not for Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels would be getting a lot more attention for one of the best dual-threat quarterback seasons in NFL history, and he did it as a rookie. Daniels threw for 3,568 yards and ran for 891 yards – numbers that only Jackson topped this year.

But Daniels led his team in rushing with those 891 yards, which is very impressive. On the other hand, it’s not a great thing since too often against better competition his running game didn’t deliver, so he was trying to win as a one-man show. We saw it back in Week 1 in his debut in Tampa Bay. Daniels ran it 16 times for 88 yards while Brian Robinson Jr. had 12 carries for 40 yards. That’s not ideal and the Commanders lost by 17 points. This has happened a few other times this year with Daniels being the leading rusher.

I think it happens again in this game. Daniels will rush for 49+ yards, outrush Robinson Jr. to lead the team, and we’ll see if it produces a better result on the scoreboard with more experience under Daniels’ belt. But I also like him to get three completions to tight end Zach Ertz, his safety blanket.

Jalen McMillan has been hot for Tampa Bay with 5 catches in four straight games, so you could tease that number even higher than 3 catches if you want. Washington isn’t great in the secondary by any stretch.

Finally, Baker Mayfield is on fire this year with 41 touchdown passes. He had four in Week 1 against Washington, and I like him to have another game with multiple scoring tosses at home. He’s also 2-0 in wild-card playoff games with three touchdowns in each of those games.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jayden Daniels to Outrush Brian Robinson Jr. & Jayden Daniels 49+ Rushing Yards & Zach Ertz 3+ Receptions & Jalen McMillan 3+ Receptions & Baker Mayfield 2+ Passing Touchdowns (+491 at FanDuel)

Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

7. Super Wild Card Parlay for Scorers

Putting all the research this week together, we have a 5-leg parlay (Monday night excluded) with over +15000 odds for a variety of players we like to target this weekend:

Ladd McConkey Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Broncos & Bills Both Score 20+ Points
Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns
Jalen McMillan Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Mentioned the advantages Ladd McConkey should have in Houston in the first pick above. But the Houston defense has a bad habit of giving up yardage and a touchdown to receivers this season.

Houston has allowed 21 receivers to gain at least 59 receiving yards, and 17 of those players (81.0%) scored at least one touchdown in that game too. Calvin Ridley did it twice without a touchdown, proving once again he is the worst player to bet on in the NFL. But I like McConkey to score in his playoff debut.

With Zay Flowers out, Mark Andrews is even more enticing than he already is for Lamar Jackson as his most reliable target. Andrews has a career-high 11 touchdowns this year, and he’s been automatic with a score in six straight games, including at home against the Steelers. Andrews has never caught a touchdown in six playoff games where he’s also been criticized like his quarterback. Let’s see them end that drought together with a score here.

Going to Buffalo, the Bills (235) and Broncos (228) lead the NFL in scoring over the last seven games. You probably didn’t expect that with Denver, but the Broncos have scored at least 24 points in seven straight games, tied for the second-longest streak in franchise history. We already mentioned how we like Bo Nix to throw a pair of touchdowns against a mediocre Buffalo defense, but I think both teams get to 20 points here.

In fact, if you look at the last 16 teams to enter the playoffs on a streak of at least seven games scoring 24 points, 14 of them scored at least 20 in the first playoff game. Only the 2021 Packers and 2008 Panthers choked at home in divisional round games. I’ll take my chances on this one.

Feel free to tease Saquon Barkley down to one touchdown or substitute him with something from above, but we feel pretty good about this one, which is what’s making the odds shoot up. But between the concussion angle with Hurts and the fact that Barkley scored two touchdowns in his only playoff game with the Giants and he scored two touchdowns in Brazil against the Packers, it just feels right.

Finally, Tampa Bay’s Jalen McMillan is another player who scored a touchdown in his first NFL game in Week 1 against the Commanders. He didn’t score again until December, but he’s earned Baker Mayfield’s trust, and he’s scored in five straight games. Maybe the Commanders will pay more attention to Mike Evans and McMillan can continue his streak here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Ladd McConkey Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Broncos & Bills Both Score 20+ Points & Saquon Barkley 2+ Touchdowns & Jalen McMillan Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+15264 at FanDuel)

Bonus: Super Bowl LIX Pick

Finally, this is a good time to make a Super Bowl LIX pick right before the first playoff game. Our preseason pick was taking the Packers to beat the Chiefs, but that’s not looking too good right now with Green Bay as a No. 7 seed that can’t beat the elite teams in 2024.

I think a battle of 15-2 teams, the Chiefs and Lions, would make a lot of sense. Teams that win 15 games have an impressive track record of getting to the Super Bowl, so it would be surprising if neither got there, and it’s +480 at FanDuel to bet both No. 1 seeds make it to New Orleans in February. You can get it at +486 if you select each team from the conference winner tab.

Getting a rematch of the quarterbacks from 2018’s 54-51 game would be an ideal way to close this season. The three-peat going up against the NFL’s most lovable losers from Detroit finally on the brink of Super Bowl glory. The stories write themselves for that one.

Super Bowl Pick: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Detroit Lions (+480 at FanDuel)

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