NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 9

Scott Kacsmar01/11/2024 - 11:31 am

The NFL moves into November with a Week 9 slate that should be headlined by Lions vs. Packers, but we’re not happy to see that Jordan Love thinks it’s “realistic” he’ll play with a groin injury. What’s realistic is we are going to focus our NFL picks elsewhere with these games.

In recapping our Week 8 NFL picks, it was almost a dreaded winless week, but the Chargers and Broncos delivered to give us one clean parlay win. But had I known D.K. Metcalf was out and the rain was coming in Seattle, I would have left that out of an otherwise perfect parlay. Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers didn’t deliver either, and Trey McBride was about the only tight end who didn’t score a touchdown on National Tight End’s Day. The Ravens also dropped the ball (thanks, Kyle Hamilton) on our moneyline parlay. It was just one of those weeks.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick-off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Colts at Vikings: Indy’s Streak of Close Games Ends (Kinda)

The Colts stunned some people this week when they benched starting quarterback Anthony Richardson for veteran Joe Flacco after Richardson struggled in just his 10th start in the NFL. But I think it was the right move, or at least it’s a move that gives them a better chance to win this game against a Minnesota defense that isn’t afraid to diversify its looks and gameplans under coordinator Brian Flores.

However, the Vikings are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which was flexed into the Sunday night window. The NFL is expecting a great game, the Vikings have lost two in a row, Flacco has been hot when playing the last year, etc.

But I’m going to go against that idea and bank on the Vikings to win possibly in blowout form. More than anything, I expect one of the strangest streaks in NFL history to end here. The Colts have not been able to shake a 6-point margin in any of their games this year, and they are making history in the process:

The 2024 Colts are the first team in NFL history to start a season with eight straight games decided by 1-to-6 points (previous record was six games).
The 2024 Colts have tied the 1993 Patriots for the longest single-season streak of games decided by 1-to-6 points at eight games each.
The 2023-24 Colts are tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history with 10 straight games decided by 1-to-6 points (record is 11 games by 2010-11 Cowboys).

When those 1993 Patriots finally ended their streak in the ninth game, they did it by beating a team 38-0. Who did they beat? The Colts.

I’m just not ready to say the sky is falling on the Vikings after consecutive losses to a division team (Lions) that knows them and is playing well, and a Thursday night road game against a coach (Sean McVay) that knows Kevin O’Connell well. I think the defense gets after Flacco, who doesn’t move as well or matches Stafford’s arm talent, and I like Justin Jefferson to have another big game.

I won’t tease the spread out to double digits here, but that’s a consideration. Remember, the Vikings were down 33-0 to the Colts in 2022 before coming back for the largest comeback in NFL history. But I think they win this one by at least 7 points to end this history-making streak of close games for the Colts.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Vikings -6.5 Alternate Spread (+104 at FanDuel)

2. Dolphins at Bills: Josh Allen Starts a New Streak

Josh Allen owns the Miami Dolphins with a 12-1 record in his last 13 games against them. But in Week 2 this year, Allen only threw one touchdown pass, ending an NFL-record streak of 13 straight games with multiple touchdown passes against the same opponent.

The Dolphins played so poorly in that game that Allen barely had to throw as he finished with 139 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts. That was the game where Tua Tagovailoa was concussed. He returned last week, but Miami fell 28-27 to Arizona because of its bad defense.

I see this as Allen’s opportunity to start a new streak by throwing multiple touchdowns and getting the Bills (6-2) a win to drop the Dolphins to 2-6 like the rest of the AFC East started this year. Miami just rarely plays well against this team, and the Bills are rolling offensively again with over 30 points in consecutive blowout wins.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Bills ML (+115 at FanDuel)

Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills — (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

3. Chargers at Browns: The Herbert-Jameis Shootout We Need

The 2024 Chargers are the first team since the 2002 Panthers to go seven games into a season with none of the games reaching 40 total points. That’s crazy given the history of the Chargers and playing shootouts.

But maybe entering Jameis Winston into the equation will shake things up this week. He’s coming off an exciting 29-24 upset of the Ravens, the first time the Browns scored more than 18 points in a game this season.

The line for this game is 42.5 points, but we’ll tease it at over 39.5 for it to end that streak of Chargers’ games not going over 39.5 points this year. Jameis’ chances he gives his receivers will be the difference maker in scoring more points than usual against the Chargers this year.

But Herbert has been playing well lately and has thrown for over 230 yards in his last three games. He’ll match what Jameis does and get into a bit of a passing shootout here. I like Herbert to throw for at least 200 with at least 225 for Winston. Keep in mind, since 2022, veteran quarterbacks not named Deshaun Watson are averaging almost 280 passing yards per game in Kevin Stefanski’s offense.

Let this be the highest-scoring game of the season for the Chargers yet. Also, I wouldn’t fault anyone who wants to play a separate ticket of touchdown scores from the running backs, Nick Chubb and J.K. Dobbins. That should be a good play too if this game goes according to plan. Also, if you can throw in a Jameis interception after the one he got away with last week, that makes a lot of sense this week. He can’t help himself most weeks.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards & Jameis Winston 225+ Passing Yards & Over 39.5 Points (+188 at FanDuel)

4. Cowboys at Falcons: Trusting the No. 1 Receivers

In what will hopefully be a good passing game between the Cowboys and Falcons, we have a 2-leg parlay that trusts the No. 1 wide receiver on each team to deliver:

Drake London over 63.5 receiving yards
CeeDee Lamb over 85.5 receiving yards

Drake London was quiet last week with 34 yards against the Buccaneers, but they were sure to take notice of him after he had 154 yards in the first matchup. The Falcons also didn’t throw much after halftime last week. But he should be in for a good game against a struggling Dallas defense that has a lot of injuries and gives up big plays.

CeeDee Lamb caught two of the most wide-open touchdowns he’ll ever see (or may ever see) in his NFL career last week in San Francisco. Look for him to be heavily targeted again, and we expect a game script with plenty of scoring and throwing from both sides. The No. 1 receivers hitting their overs in yards shouldn’t be that hard to get from this one if it’s the kind of Dak Prescott vs. Kirk Cousins matchup you expect.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Drake London Over 63.5 Receiving Yards & CeeDee Lamb Over 85.5 Receiving Yards (+218 at FanDuel)

5. Buccaneers at Chiefs: Any Streaks Going to End for Kansas City?

The Chiefs have a lot of streaks still alive going into Monday night where they are an 8.5-point home favorite against Tampa in a game with a total of 45 points:

The Chiefs have won 13 games in a row.
The Chiefs have not allowed more than 27 points since Super Bowl 57, a span of 28 games.
The Chiefs have not scored more than 28 points in 17 straight games.
None of Kansas City’s last 28 games have gone over 51 total points.

We’ll see if any of these streaks end. The odds would be much greater if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were healthy for the Bucs, but that’s not the case as both are out again. Baker Mayfield could have a tough time with this defense as he’s thrown multiple interceptions in three straight games. He’s also thrown at least 3 touchdown passes in those games too, which is tied for a record streak of his own.

But Tampa’s run of high-scoring games is why I think this one can get up there in points. That’s why I like a parlay of Kareem Hunt scoring a touchdown for the Chiefs and the game going over 50.5 points. I might even sneak a DeAndre Hopkins touchdown in there for the heck of it, but Hunt has been pretty reliable for the Chiefs since taking over for Isiah Pacheco.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Kareem Hunt Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Over 50.5 Points (+230 at BetMGM)

6. Broncos at Ravens: Bo Knows Touchdowns?

One of the most interesting games in Week 9 is the 5-3 Broncos on the road in Baltimore, which just suffered another bad upset loss to the Browns last week to also fall to 5-3. Now the Ravens get a rookie quarterback at home in Bo Nix, but Nix is an unusual rookie in that he’s had some strong games numbers-wise and some horrible games too.

But the Baltimore defense is not up to its usual high standards this year. Nix is also a very capable runner, so don’t be surprised if he can score some points in this one and really challenge the Ravens.

But when I look at the touchdown scorer odds for this game at various sportsbooks, I see little faith in the Broncos scoring many touchdowns here. That feels wrong as the way the Ravens play this year, it forces offenses to make sure they are scoring a fair amount. I doubt this will be a field goal fest.

So, when I saw one sportsbook offering +200 odds for Bo Nix to score a rushing touchdown and FanDuel had +350 odds for the same thing, I jumped on that perceived bargain. Nix already has 4 rushing touchdowns this season and Sean Payton has him running the Drew Brees-style sneak at the goal line for them as he did last week against Carolina.

The Baltimore defense hasn’t fallen off to Carolina’s standards yet, but I think Nix can score in this one and trust him to do that more than I do for him to throw one to Courtland Sutton or for Javonte Williams to score on the ground.

Playing Nix’s rushing yards would probably be much safer, but they aren’t available yet on FanDuel as of this writing. I’d consider going up to 50-plus yards for him on the ground or going with his over for combined passing and rushing yards as he might surprise some people in this game.

Of course, he could throw for 75 yards in a 30-9 loss, but that’s why they call it gambling.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+350 at FanDuel)

7. A Touchdown Scorer/Moneyline Parlay

Finally, we have a 3-leg parlay that picks a touchdown scorer and his team to win the game:

Alvin Kamara (Saints) vs. Panthers

Welcome back, Derek Carr. The Saints haven’t won since Week 2, and while Carr hasn’t played a good game since then, he’s going to be much better than Spencer Rattler was for this offense. He also has Chris Olave back, or at least let’s hope he does. The Saints have been so injured and that’s why they’re 2-6 after an incredible 2-0 start.

But they pounded Carolina in Week 1, and that might be the worst defense in the NFL. Alvin Kamara will be glad to have his quarterback, and he should find the end zone again after being blanked these last two weeks.

Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders) vs. Giants

Robinson has scored a touchdown in 5-of-7 games this season. The only times he didn’t were in the games where the Commanders kept stalling in the red zone and settled for field goals, including the perfect 7-for-7 field goal performance against New York in Week 2. In that game, Robinson rushed for 133 yards, so he can have success against what has been a putrid run defense from New York.

But I think the Commanders ditch what happened last week and last time and score some touchdowns that aren’t Hail Mary passes. Look for Robinson to find the end zone, and Jayden Daniels will lead this team to a 7-2 record by sweeping the Giants.

Saquon Barkley (Eagles) vs. Jaguars

Last week, Jalen Hurts scored three rushing touchdowns as the Tush Push was looking solid for the offense. But Saquon Barkley has six touchdowns this season, or only one fewer than Hurts on the ground. He’s been a big part of the offense, and he has home-run ability to hit the long plays too.

The Jaguars are a bottom-tier defense that allow a lot of touchdowns on the ground and through the air. It’s really pick your poison, and if the Eagles are going to get on a roll after a strong showing in Cincinnati, maybe they can find a way to get Barkley, Hurts, and A.J. Brown touchdowns in this game. But I’m backing the favorite by the odds to score in Barkley.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Alvin Kamara Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Saints ML & Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Commanders ML & Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Eagles ML (+958 at FanDuel)

Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles — (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

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