It’s just our luck that the NFL finally has a Bears-Commanders game in Week 8 that we’d really like to see, and it could be compromised by the rib injury to rookie sensation Jayden Daniels. He’s questionable to play, but the Commanders being a 3-point home dog isn’t a good sign. So, we didn’t make any NFL picks for that game, but we have plenty of thoughts on the rest of the Week 8 slate that already started with the Rams beating Minnesota on Thursday night.
In recapping our Week 7 NFL picks, Patrick Mahomes did in fact blow our 6-leg builder of 200-yard passers. But the Cardinals were held under 21.5 points on Monday night, the Saquon Barkley Revenge Game was a smashing success, and Joe Mixon and Jordan Love practically hit our +212 bet by halftime. So, it wasn’t a bad week, but Mahomes could have made it a very good one if he threw for more yards. Maybe DeAndre Hopkins can help with that going forward.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Packers at Jaguars: Jordan Love Will Shine in Florida
Aaron Rodgers famously struggled on several trips to Florida in his career, including some ugly losses in the Matt LaFleur era. Let’s hope Jordan Love is different in that regard as he takes on the Jaguars this week in Jacksonville.
Love is on a roll and leads the NFL with an 8.4% touchdown pass rate. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in 15 of 16 games going back to last year. The Jacksonville defense just gave up a pair of scoring tosses to rookie Drake Maye in London last week. They’ve also been torched by a couple of 4-touchdown pass games by Josh Allen (Bills) and Caleb Williams (Bears). In other words, the Jaguars have allowed a league-high 16 touchdown passes in 2024.
That’s why we like Love to throw multiple touchdowns again, and we like the Packers (-3.5) to win the game as that defense has been fantastic at forcing turnovers. Even when they couldn’t get one against Houston last week, they held C.J. Stroud under 90 passing yards in a win.
Green Bay, our preseason Super Bowl pick, is rolling right now. The Jaguars beat a bad New England team last week, but they should be in for a rough game this week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Packers ML (+101 at FanDuel)
2. Jets at Patriots: They Aren’t This Pathetic Are They?
The Jets (2-5) have been probably the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. But their lone win via blowout is a 24-3 win against the Patriots, who have not won since Week 1 in Cincinnati. The Patriots are getting better play out of rookie Drake Maye than they were getting from veteran Jacoby Brissett, but he’s also going to take some risks that could lead to interceptions or sack-fumbles.
The Jets probably aren’t holding Maye to 3 points like they did the Brissett-led offense, and they also have more injuries in the secondary now. But I feel confident about them winning the game here.
You also have to consider the New England pass defense has been lousy against wide receivers. Aaron Rodgers played his best game of the season against the Patriots, and he has Davante Adams on his side now. They didn’t have a great debut in Pittsburgh last week, but the volume (opportunity) was there for Adams with 9 targets. Look for him to catch more of them this week and hit his over (57.5 yards) as the Jets finally snap this losing streak with a sweep of the Patriots.
But if they lose to this team, things are really about to get ugly there. Rodgers might just head into a dark retreat before the election, never to be heard from again (except for Tuesdays with Pat McAfee).
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Davante Adams Over 57.5 Receiving Yards & Jets ML (+128 at FanDuel)
3. Final Four Moneyline Parlay
Even with the 49ers’ brutal run of injuries continuing, oddsmakers still like 2023’s final four teams (Chiefs, 49ers, Ravens, Lions) as the four most likely to win the Super Bowl in 2024 too.
All four are favored to win this week, and I like all four of them to win in a parlay.
Ravens (-8.5) at Browns: Red-hot offense led by Lamar Jackson, the Browns are limited in how much they can score, and Jameis Winston might help that Baltimore defense with turnovers.
Titans at Lions (-11.5): It’s the biggest spread of the season so far. The Lions are rolling offensively with Jared Goff, and the Titans simply don’t have the ability to keep up no matter which quarterback they start.
Chiefs (-9.5) at Raiders: The Raiders are the last team to beat Kansas City on Christmas but don’t think the Chiefs have forgotten about that game. They’ll be out for some revenge, they got DeAndre Hopkins at wide receiver, and they have an elite defense again. They also love playing in that building (Allegiant Stadium), home of their latest Super Bowl win.
Cowboys at 49ers (-4.5): It’s the Sunday night game with both teams struggling. But let’s not forget that Kyle Shanahan’s offense has historically owned teams coached by Mike McCarthy, and the Cowboys have been playing horrible defense this season. Dak Prescott also has failed to score more than 12 points in his last two trips to San Francisco, and he didn’t score a touchdown in his last start either (47-9 loss to Detroit). Dallas had a bye, but I think the 49ers get back to .500 with a big win here.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Moneyline Parlay – 49ers ML & Lions ML & Ravens ML & Chiefs ML (+155 at FanDuel)
4. Trusting Those Other AFC West Teams
We have a 2-leg parlay for alternate team totals in games involving the other AFC West teams that aren’t the Chiefs and Raiders:
- Panthers Under 17.5 Points vs Broncos
- Chargers Over 21.5 Points vs. Saints
That Denver defense has been playing great all year, allowing 15.1 points per game. Now they get the Panthers with Bryce Young taking over at quarterback again after Andy Dalton has a thumb injury after he was in a car accident this week. But the Panthers have been struggling to score, and we know they have scored 13 points in Young’s last four starts going back to last year (13 points in two starts this year). We’ll tease this lineup from 15.5 to 17.5 for Carolina, but we’re still trusting the Denver defense to hold them under.
The Chargers were back to setting some history in defeat Monday night when Justin Herbert threw for 349 yards with a passer rating over 97.0 despite the offense not scoring a touchdown in a 17-15 loss. Look for them to fix that this week against the Saints, who are banged up and giving up serious points (25.7 per game). Herbert hasn’t had a healthy start at home since Week 1, so this will be good for him and it’s the right opponent for him to find the end zone multiple times as the Chargers should get over 21.5 points at least.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Panthers Under 17.5 Points & Chargers Over 21.5 Points (+132 at FanDuel)
5. Falcons at Buccaneers: Another Fast Start for These Offenses?
When the Falcons and Buccaneers met in Week 5, it was arguably the Game of the Year with Kirk Cousins passing for 509 yards. The rematch is this Sunday in Tampa Bay, and while the Buccaneers are going to be without receivers Mike Evans (hamstring) and Chris Godwin (ankle), we still see good passing value in this matchup.
We have a 2-leg parlay for first-quarter props:
- Drake London 10+ Receiving Yards in First Quarter (Alternate Line)
- Cade Otton Over 5.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards
London had 12 catches for 154 yards in Week 5 and has been hot against Tampa Bay. He is Cousins’ favorite receiver and should get plenty of looks again in this matchup. Look for him to get at least 10 yards against this secondary early on.
As for the Buccaneers, Baker Mayfield’s hospital balls haven’t been good for the health of his receivers lately. But one player he still has is tight end Cade Otton, who had 8 catches for 100 yards against the Ravens after Evans and Godwin were injured. He’ll have to step up for him, so I think the tight end could get over 5.5 yards as a trusted target for Mayfield, who is throwing the ball a lot right now.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Drake London 10+ First Quarter Receiving Yards & Cade Otton Over 5.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (+260 at FanDuel)
6. Cardinals at Dolphins: National Tight End Day
Week 8 is National Tight End Day in the NFL. Trey McBride has received comparisons to Rob Gronkowski as a tight end in Arizona, but one thing he clearly lacks is Gronk’s red zone prowess. McBride has just four touchdown catches on 143 career receptions in the NFL.
But McBride has no touchdowns this year despite catching 33 passes for 322 yards, making him one of the league’s leading receivers who has yet to score in 2024. Let’s bank on that drought ending this week with McBride catching his first touchdown.
Let’s also keep in mind that the Dolphins are one of eight defenses that have yet to allow a tight end to score this season. So, this is regression vs. regression as you can’t possibly expect McBride to go the whole season without a score, nor should you rely on the Dolphins to shut out every tight end this year.
With Kyler Murray struggling on some throws to Marvin Harrison Jr. lately, let’s hope he finds his tight end for six. Also, McBride caught his first touchdown of 2023 in Week 8, so maybe we get some déjà vu.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Trey McBride Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+290 at FanDuel)
7. A Random Parlay
Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay with no rhyme but plenty of reasons. As always, feel free to mix the legs you like best here with the legs you like the best from above.
A.J. Brown (Eagles) Over 75.5 Receiving Yards vs. Bengals
A.J. Brown is starting 2024 the way he did last year with consistently dominant games. He’s gone over 89 yards with a touchdown in all three games he’s played this year. The only thing stopping him from another 100 yards last week was that Jalen Hurts only had to throw 14 passes in an easy 28-3 win over the Giants.
It shouldn’t be that easy this week against the Bengals, who can score even if they haven’t the last two weeks. But expect a better offensive game and expect Brown to have his way with that secondary to hit his over in receiving yards.
David Njoku (Browns) Over 54.5 Receiving Yards vs. Ravens
David Njoku has been a fun tight end to bet on the last few seasons when Deshaun Watson isn’t there holding him back as his quarterback. Well, the good news is Watson (Achilles) is done for the year, and the old gunslinger Jameis Winston is going to start this game.
Throw in the absence of Amari Cooper from this offense, and that should mean more quality targets for Njoku. Factor in a game script that should see Cleveland throwing more to keep up with Baltimore’s dominant offense, and I love this spot for Njoku to go over 54.5 yards.
Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Raiders
The Chiefs have won 12 games in a row, but their last loss was to the Raiders at home on Christmas. Patrick Mahomes had two turnovers returned for touchdowns in a span of 7 seconds that day. Don’t think the Chiefs have forgotten that, and don’t think they forgot about the Kermit video from the summer, or these comments this week from the Vegas locker room.
Mahomes is hearing it right now for his stat line of 6 touchdowns to 8 interceptions this season. But the team is still 6-0 because he has led an effective offense regardless of those stat categories. Look for him to throw a pair of touchdowns this week in one of his favorite stadiums to play. Maybe Travis Kelce finally gets on the board in 2024, or maybe they get one to new receiver DeAndre Hopkins after trading for him this week.
Seattle Seahawks Over 19.5 Team Points (Alternate Line) vs. Bills
The Seahawks have scored at least 20 points in every game this season. They have a very talented offense with Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Walker, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Simth-Njigba. They’ll know they have to be sharp this week to beat Josh Allen and the Bills. Let’s go with an alternate line of Seattle crossing the 20-point mark once again.
Pittsburgh Steelers ML vs. Giants
Sure, nothing flashy here with the moneyline as the Steelers are a 6.5-point home favorite. But it’s also early in the week before Monday night’s game, so we can’t see the more intriguing props yet for things like a Pat Freiermuth touchdown, Malik Nabers going over 10 receiving yards in the first quarter, or the Steelers recording five sacks of Daniel Jones. Those are some things we could consider to spice up this final leg, but we’re playing it safe for now with the moneyline as Pittsburgh should win.
Since 1992, the Steelers are 21-0 in home Monday night games, including a 10-0 record under Mike Tomlin.
Last week against the Jets, the Steelers surpassed 400 yards and 31 points in a win for the first time in their last 100 games. They’ll be looking for another good win in Russell Wilson’s second start with the team.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – A.J. Brown Over 75.5 Receiving Yards & David Njoku Over 54.5 Receiving Yards & Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Seahawks Over 19.5 Points & Steelers ML (+1224 at FanDuel)
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