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Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar18/10/2024 - 01:00 pm
(Photo by Ian Maule/Getty Images)

The NFL has really outdone itself with a stellar Week 7 schedule, the best of the season so far. Earlier this week, we looked at the updated Super Bowl LIX odds and division title races, and we looked at the NFL award races. But we are really looking forward to making some NFL picks for this great slate of important games:

  • The Texans and Packers will meet in Green Bay as two teams we hyped up for Super Bowl aspirations before the season started.
  • Detroit is in Minnesota for an epic battle for the NFC North lead with the Vikings (5-0) coming off a bye week against the highest-scoring team in the NFL right now.
  • The Super Bowl LVIII rematch is here as the San Francisco 49ers try to get a win over Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs for the first time and end their 11-game winning streak.
  • The soap opera of the New York Jets is in Pittsburgh, which may be starting its own with Russell Wilson reportedly replacing Justin Fields at quarterback.
  • Great game in Monday night in Tampa Bay when the Ravens come to town with a hot offense, but don’t sleep on Tampa Bay scoring 51 points last week.

In recapping our Week 6 NFL picks, the Bengals and Texans did exactly what we wanted them to against Daniel Jones and Drake Maye’s teams. Unfortunately, Josh Allen still didn’t throw an interception, the Ravens couldn’t win by double digits despite a late 30-20 lead, and Calvin Ridley bombed our nearly +4000 parlay that was otherwise perfect.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Big Games Builder: 200 Passing Yards

With some big games this week, we are thankfully not going to be treated to rookie quarterbacks facing each other like on Thursday night when Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler both failed to throw for 200 yards.

We have identified three games where we expect both quarterbacks to put on a show, and in this case, we modestly expect at least 200 passing yards from all six of the following quarterbacks:

  • Jared Goff (Lions): While he had 199 in Arizona in Week 3, he’s been over 200 yards in 24-of-26 games, he’s been hitting huge plays the last two games, and he had 257 and 320 yards late in the season against Minnesota last year.
  • Sam Darnold (Vikings): He’s been under 200 twice in the last three games, but the Lions tend to allow a lot of passing yards, they lost Aidan Hutchinson for the season, and Minnesota’s offense carved up Detroit with Nick Mullens at quarterback for 411 and 396 yards.
  • Geno Smith (Seahawks): He leads the league in pass attempts and completions, and he’s thrown for at least 284 yards in five straight games. The Falcons have no pass rush and this could be a shootout.
  • Kirk Cousins (Falcons): After a slow Week 1, Cousins has hit at least 225 passing yards in his last five games, and the Seahawks have been injured on defense and getting shredded.
  • Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs): He had 151 yards against Cincinnati this year, but Mahomes on the road and as an underdog is usually stellar, and against the 49ers, he’s thrown for 314, 286, 423, and 333 yards.
  • Brock Purdy (49ers): He’s had 19 straight 200-yard games, at least 231 yards in every 2024 game, and he threw for 255 yards in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs.

We deserve a bad week if we can’t get the builder off to a good start.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jared Goff 200+ Passing Yards & Sam Darnold 200+ Passing Yards & Geno Smith 200+ Passing Yards & Kirk Cousins 200+ Passing Yards & Patrick Mahomes 200+ Passing Yards & Brock Purdy 200+ Passing Yards (+190 at FanDuel)

2. Chargers at Cardinals: Low Scoring in the Desert

You can see Jim Harbaugh’s impact on the Chargers as none of their games have topped 39 points yet this season. But they’re not turning the ball over, they’re running it well, and the defense has yet to allow anyone to score more than 20 points.

Arizona has this trend where it starts games well offensively in the first quarter, but things soon slow down dramatically after that. The Cardinals have not scored more than 14 points in 3-of-4 games coming into this one.

You know an old-school Chargers shootout or blown lead is bound to happen eventually, but for another week, we’ll trust the team to keep the scoreboard down, and we’re taking the under for the Arizona team total of 21.5 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Cardinals Under 21.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel)

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3. Bengals at Browns: Kevin Stefanski’s Super Bowl

Things are going quite poorly for the Browns, who are 1-5 and getting horrible quarterback play out of Deshaun Watson. Head coach Kevin Stefanski keeps stating that he’s not making a quarterback change, but he better get results soon or he’s going to lose his job over Watson.

The Browns have not scored more than 18 points in any game this season. Guess what their team total line is set to this week? Yep, 18.5 points. But they are at home against the Bengals, a team Stefanski is 6-2 against (6-1 when he’s not resting starters), and the Browns have scored at least 21 points in every win against Cincinnati.

Unfortunately, there was a 23-10 loss in Cincinnati in 2022 with Watson at quarterback. But the Bengals were also playing much better defense at the moment than they are now.

The other boost for Cleveland this week is the return of running back Nick Chubb, an elite player who hasn’t played since Week 2 last season. If Watson is going to step up and have his coach’s back, this is the week to do it. I still wouldn’t count on a win or great performance, but we’re going to trust the Browns to stop the slump and score over 18.5 points.

Let’s keep in mind that since 2005, only the 2009 Redskins started a season with 7 straight games where they didn’t score more than 18 points. They actually had an 8-game streak that year under coach Jim Zorn. This is Stefanski’s opponent and spot to shine regardless of his lousy quarterback.

Note: The line moved down to 17.5 points on Saturday, so we’re still sticking with the over and at a point lower now.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Browns Over 17.5 Points (-110 at FanDuel)

4. Eagles at Giants: Saquon Barkley Revenge Game

What, we don’t have to watch the Giants in prime time again? Oh, that’s next Monday night in Pittsburgh. But while we get a break from the NFC East this week, this is a good Sunday afternoon spot for Saquon Barkley to shine against his former team.

Look for Barkley to find the end zone, and we’re also going to take the over on his rushing prop with 81.5 rushing yards. The Giants are allowing teams to average 5.1 yards per carry, ranked 31st, and they haven’t even played many good running backs yet. Barkley is arguably the best they’ve seen, and you know he’ll want to have one of his best games here.

I wish I could trust the Eagles to win the game too, but we’ll just focus this one on Barkley.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Saquon Barkley Over 81.5 Rushing Yards (+154 at FanDuel)

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5. Jets at Steelers: Let’s Try Those First Quarter Props Again

One of the worst beats I’ve ever seen in betting happened last week when I had Chris Olave here going over 5.5 receiving yards in the first quarter for the Saints against Tampa Bay.

It was a core play for me across parlays last Sunday, and it failed in excruciating fashion when Olave caught a pass for 5 yards on the third snap from scrimmage, took a big shot to the helmet, lost the ball for a fumble touchdown, and left the game for good with a concussion. Brutal stuff all around.

But I’ve seen some nice success with these quarter props at FanDuel the last few weeks. I’ve already used them to hit parlays with odds of +16000 and +28000. Part of me wants to go back to Calvin Ridley this week in Tennessee after he sank our parlay last week. Not only did he fail to score a touchdown, but he caught 0-of-8 targets, so even if you played his yards as I suggested as a fair substitute, that failed too.

Ridley complained about not getting the ball early, so part of me wants to play him again this week to have 5+ yards in the first quarter against Buffalo. But on the other hand, his quarterback is Will Levis, who just doesn’t throw well. I’m taking a stand and making Ridley the Kyle Kuzma of the NFL, meaning he’s banned from all parlays for me.

But I still wanted to feast on something with these first quarter props, so I landed again on the Jets-Steelers game on Sunday night. Aaron Rodgers worked out the trade he wanted with Davante Adams, and sure enough, his hamstring is good to go. So, I like Adams to strike early with a catch or more as that chemistry should be there instantly.

Whether the Steelers start Russell Wilson or Justin Fields doesn’t really bother me with this pick. I’d feel better if it was Wilson because he’s a better passer and more likely to get passes called in the first quarter. But either way, I’m playing this one.

I’m taking George Pickens to also have 5+ receiving yards in the first quarter. Adams and Pickens, let’s find out in the first 15 minutes if we have a winner or not. Again, you can find these first-quarter props in the Same Game Parlay section on FanDuel, and sometimes they wait until game day to include them.

If you don’t trust the Steelers, add in Garrett Wilson or Allen Lazard as Rodgers has good chemistry there too. The receiver he can’t stand is Mike Williams, but it’d be a shock if he ever plays again for this team.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Davante Adams 5+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter and George Pickens 5+ Receiving Yards in 1st Quarter (+160 at FanDuel)

6. Texans at Packers: Looking for Offensive Fireworks

We may not get many matchups in the NFL between Jordan Love’s Packers and C.J. Stroud’s Texans, so let’s hope for some good offensive play in this one with two of the best teams right now. We have a 2-leg parlay here:

  • Jordan Love 2+ Passing Touchdowns
  • Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer

We know the Texans have a good pass rush, but that doesn’t mean they haven’t already allowed Anthony Richardson, Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence, and rookie Drake Maye to throw multiple touchdown passes against them this season. Darnold had four scoring tosses, and Maye just had three last week in his first start.

Love just threw four touchdowns against Arizona last week, and he has gone over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 14 of his last 15 games. It would be a surprise if he didn’t do this, so this leg is one of our core plays for Week 7.

As for the other side of the ball, the Packers have been great at forcing turnovers, but they can still be scored on this season. Joe Mixon returned to action for Houston last week and was great with 102 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He caught one and ran one in. He has looked great when healthy for this offense, and without star receiver Nico Collins, the Texans are lacking a big weapon in the passing game. Let’s trust Mixon to find the end zone again in a game that should feature its share of touchdowns.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jordan Love 2+ Passing Touchdowns & Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+212 at FanDuel)

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7. A Long-Distance Touchdown Parlay

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay that will hopefully span from the London game on Sunday morning through the first Monday night game in Tampa. We have four running backs and one wide receiver we like to score a touchdown.

Antonio Gibson (Patriots) vs. Jaguars

He’s taken over as the starter for Rhamondre Stevenson. The offense moved better with Drake Maye last week, and the rookie threw all three of the team’s touchdowns. That likely won’t happen again this week, and we’ll trust that Gibson can end his drought of having the second-most touches (59) in the league without a touchdown this season.

Tank Bigsby (Jaguars) vs. Patriots

Travis Etienne was injured in London last week, so Tank Bigsby is getting the push in the props right now. Frankly, he looks like the better back if his game against the Colts is any indication. The Patriots were bullied on the ground by Houston last week with multiple backs scoring touchdowns against them. The Jaguars need a big win in the worst way, so let’s root for Bigsby to find the end zone at least once overseas before they end up firing Doug Pederson.

Diontae Johnson (Panthers) vs. Commanders

The Commanders did not give up a touchdown to Zay Flowers in Baltimore last week, but they were picked apart by yet another No. 1 wide receiver. That’s the opportunity Diontae Johnson gets against this defense, and we know he’s a favorite target for Andy Dalton, who needs a big game to keep his starting job over Bryce Young. You could substitute in his yardage over instead of the touchdown, but Dalton has thrown a score to Johnson already this season.

Derrick Henry (Ravens) vs. Buccaneers

Is there anyone more reliable right now? Derrick Henry has hit the end zone in all six games for the Ravens this year, and he leads the NFL in total touchdowns scored. We know he relishes the big games too with some huge prime-time runs in his career. The Buccaneers have played in some real shootouts this year and last, so this could be an explosive game with plenty of points. It would be a shock if Henry didn’t score another.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs. Ravens

Again, this is similar to the Jacksonville situation where rookie Bucky Irving might just be better than Rachaad White. The Bucs rushed for almost 300 yards without White last week against the Broncos. The Ravens aren’t that bad off, but they are giving up points this year in ways we aren’t used to seeing. Let’s go with Irving to bring it home and find the end zone after he scored last week.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Antonio Gibson Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Tank Bigsby Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Diontae Johnson Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Bucky Irving Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+6370 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar18/10/2024 - 01:00 pm