The NFL has a lot of big spreads in Week 6 as four teams are favored by at least 6.5 points. These games have been a gold mine for underdogs all season. Teams favored by at least 6.5 points are just 3-9 SU and 1-10-1 ATS this season. We’ll keep that in mind for our NFL picks but remember those numbers for the spread should regress to the mean (close to .500), so we are definitely anticipating things to start swinging the other way towards the favorites.
In recapping our Week 5 NFL picks, a trio of touchdown scorers (Ja’Marr Chase, Derrick Henry, and Josh Jacobs) were good enough to get us up 3.9 units. But the 49ers blew another double-digit lead to the Cardinals, the Saints couldn’t outscore the Chiefs in the fourth quarter, and that’s about the last time I trust Deshaun Watson to throw a touchdown to Amari Cooper. Cleveland needs to bench him.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Bengals at Giants: Always Fade Daniel Jones in Prime Time
It’s not looking good for rookie wideout Malik Nabers (concussion) to return in time for this game. He would be a big asset, but let’s not forget that we’re talking about the Giants in MetLife Stadium, under the lights, with Daniel Jones at quarterback. He is quite possibly the worst prime-time quarterback in NFL history.
Jones is 1-14 in night games with his only win coming in 2022 against the Commanders in a 20-12 game on Sunday Night Football. He has been held under 22.5 points in 13-of-15 prime-time games as well. We’re just so used to seeing him lose and not light up the scoreboard in these games.
Sure, the Bengals have been annihilated on defense against the Commanders and Ravens, but they weren’t the first and they won’t be the last to do so this year. They were not that bad defensively in their other games, and again, with the way Jones plays in prime time and the unlikelihood of Nabers returning, it’s a good spot for the Bengals to improve to 2-4.
We’re taking the team under (22.5) on the Giants and mixing it with a Cincinnati win.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Giants Under 22.5 Points & Bengals ML (+108 at FanDuel)
2. Texans at Patriots: The Drake Maye Era Begins
The Patriots have understandably benched quarterback Jacoby Brissett for rookie Drake Maye, who will make his first NFL start against an elite pass rush from Houston. What could possibly go wrong?
I was just going to pick Houston to cover the 6.5-point spread and be done with it, but let’s get a little more creative seeing as how the Texans have yet to beat anyone by more than 6 points this season, and the Patriots have actually upset Cincinnati and played Seattle and Miami close at home.
But that offensive line is a mess. In Maye’s debut off the bench against the Jets, another good defense, he took 2 sacks in limited action, giving him a 20% sack rate. He also ran a couple of times for 12 yards.
Already this season, some mobile quarterbacks have scrambled for good yardage against Houston as a means to escape that pass rush that leads the NFL with a 42.0% pressure rate according to Next Gen Stats. Anthony Richardson (Colts) had 56 yards, Caleb Williams (Bears) had 44 yards, and last week Josh Allen (Bills) rushed for 54 yards in Houston.
We’re going to count on Maye to run for his life to the tune of over 25.5 rushing yards, but we’re also going to trust C.J. Stroud to deliver without Nico Collins and get the win for his team.
But if you can find a special line for Maye to take 5 sacks in this game, you can certainly consider playing that from this game instead. It just seems too obvious, implying a trap, so we’re going to think about his rushing yards instead. The Patriots may not call enough pass plays for him to accumulate that many sacks.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Drake Maye Over 25.5 Rushing Yards & Texans ML (+139 at FanDuel)
3. Bills at Jets: Not Trusting Josh Allen This Week
It’s cool that Josh Allen has yet to throw an interception on 131 attempts this year, but there is no way I’m trusting him to continue that streak in New York this Monday night. We know the Jets fired coach Robert Saleh despite the offense being the issue, but look for that defense to show up regardless.
Allen very well may have been concussed in that Houston game where he completed just 9-of-30 passes. He’s not playing very well right now, the Bills are limited on weapons, and this is the opponent where he threw three picks against on Monday night to start the 2023 season, the game where Rodgers tore his Achilles.
Normally, I’d parlay an Allen pick with a Jets win, but I also can’t trust that team after the last two weeks. Both of these teams are struggling despite this being a battle for first place in the AFC East. But it feels long overdue for an Allen pick parade in prime time, and I’m banking on it this week. Play it up to two picks if your favorite sportsbook offers that line.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Josh Allen Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-115 at bet365)
4. Buccaneers at Saints: Chris Olave Strikes Early
One of the best new betting markets are first quarter props for a player’s yardage, especially the alternate lines at FanDuel where you can bet on a receiver to have 5+, 10+, 15+, etc. receiving yards in just the first quarter. We mentioned some of these props last week with George Pickens hitting in Pittsburgh (but Pat Freiermuth did not).
It’s a fun and possibly very valuable market to make NFL picks on as some teams make it a point to get a player going early. This week should provide some good value in Chris Olave on the Saints, who only caught 2-of-4 targets for 10 yards last week in Kansas City. Even Olave’s relatives took to Twitter to notice he had 1 catch for 4 yards for much of the game.
One person who realizes he needs to get Olave the ball is rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler, who is getting the start this week after Derek Carr sustained an oblique injury on Monday night.
Now he gets a Tampa defense that gave up over 500 yards passing to Kirk Cousins last week. Granted, Rattler is just a rookie who only looked good in preseason. While Rattler has promise, we know a rookie’s first NFL start could always be a disaster. Just look at Week 1 this year for Caleb Williams and Bo Nix.
Still, we are gladly going to roll the dice this week and trust Rattler to get Olave the ball in the first quarter. These props are usually not up until the day before the game, so we’ll check back in over the weekend with the updated line and exactly how much yardage you should play. But the first quarter props will be on FanDuel, and Olave is the guy we want to target for early production in Week 6.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Chris Olave Over 5.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
5. Commanders at Ravens: The Status Quo Returns
Look, this could be the game of the week with ease as the Commanders and Ravens are playing incredible, big-play offense and not much defense. Jayden Daniels is the new “Chosen One” and the quarterback I’ve ranked No. 1 in 2024 the last two weeks. Lamar Jackson has better numbers this year than he did in his MVP season last year, and don’t forget the way Derrick Henry is dominating. His anytime touchdown odds are up to -330 this week, which is absurd.
Everything about this is screaming Washington upset as an offense that efficient going up against a Baltimore defense that is struggling in ways we’re not used to. The public is heavily on Washington +6.5 here.
But I’m going to stay with the boring status quo, and not only do I think Jackson will improve to 22-1 against NFC teams, but I think the Ravens win by double digits. Maybe not the 35-10 blowout they laid on Buffalo, but the Commanders are still a young team with a defense you can’t trust.
It would be incredible for Daniels’ MVP case to outduel Lamar in his house, but I think the Ravens score a ton of points and the rookie makes too many mistakes to keep up this week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Ravens -9.5 (+130 at FanDuel)
6. Lions at Cowboys: Revenge Game Parlay
We have a 4-leg parlay for the showdown in Dallas that is a rematch of last year’s controversial finish against the Lions:
- David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- CeeDee Lamb 90+ Receiving Yards
- Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards
- Jared Goff 200+ Passing Yards
When these teams met last year, a 20-19 win by Dallas, there was that controversial ending when the Lions were penalized for an illegal formation on a 2-point conversion that would have won the game. I think they are all business in the red zone this week, and they use David Montgomery to hammer in at least one touchdown. He’s been so automatic with a score in seven straight regular-season games, including one in Dallas last year.
CeeDee Lamb had a 92-yard touchdown catch against Detroit last year on the way to a career-high 227 yards. Let’s just stick with the 90 yards again for the game in this one, which could be a conservative figure. Detroit’s defense seems approved, but this is probably going to be a shootout or a game where Dallas is way behind and has to throw a lot.
In fact, that’s why we love Dak Prescott to throw for 225+ yards, and you could probably play that up to 275+ with ease if you wanted to. He threw for 345 last year against Detroit, he threw for 352 in Pittsburgh last week, and he had 379 and 293 yards at home in losses to the Ravens and Saints this year. The Cowboys are not winning this game on the ground, so Dak is going to have to step up.
The last time we saw Jared Goff in Week 4 against Seattle, he made history by completing 100% of his passes. It won’t be that easy this time but do keep in mind the Cowboys are without several edge rushers, including Micah Parsons. We’ll go conservative for Goff with 200 yards to top things off in what could be the shootout of the day on Sunday if Commanders-Ravens does in fact disappoint.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer & CeeDee Lamb 90+ Receiving Yards & Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards & Jared Goff 200+ Passing Yards (+337 at FanDuel)
7. A Sunday Parlay (5 Legs)
For Sunday afternoon, we have a 5-leg parlay with no overarching theme. Remember, pick which legs you like, or combine them with picks from above as you see fit.
Calvin Ridley (Titans) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Colts
Feel free to swap this one out with a big receiving yardage number like 70+ yards for Calvin Ridley. But the idea here is that the Colts have been getting killed by outside receivers like Ridley every week. In fact, the Colts are either getting killed by receivers or running backs, or sometimes both. That defense is just really struggling under coordinator Gus Bradley as they lack elite talent.
We’re going to bank on Will Levis making some adjustments during the bye week and finding his best young receiver often for a big game.
A.J. Brown (Eagles) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Browns
Eagles fans will almost be as happy as Jalen Hurts to see A.J. Brown back this week. Brown has not played since Week 1in Brazil where he went for 119 yards and a touchdown against the Packers. Hurts loves Brown, who caught 7 touchdowns last year and 11 the year before that.
The Browns are not as good defensively this year, and they travel poorly too. Let’s count on Hurts to welcome Brown back with a score after the bye week.
Buccaneers ML vs. Saints
While we like Chris Olave to make an impact early this week, we don’t like the Saints to win this game as a 3.5-point home underdog with a rookie quarterback in Spencer Rattler. Look for Tampa Bay to rebound from the shocking loss in overtime in Atlanta and come out of this one with a divisional win against a New Orleans team that is slumping hard since a great 2-0 start.
It’s also an emotional pick as Tampa Bay has been ravaged by hurricanes this month, so the team will look to give back to the community with a good performance and win this Sunday. I also just think the Buccaneers are flat-out a better team than the Saints right now.
Andy Dalton (Panthers) Over 220.5 Passing Yards vs. Falcons
Staying in the NFC South, let’s trust the lack of a pass rush from the Falcons combined with Kirk Cousins’ ability to put up points to lead to a big passing yardage game from Andy Dalton. He’ll need to deliver to keep his starting job as the team benched him in last week’s blowout loss in Chicago for Bryce Young.
Dalton should be able to find things he likes in this defense that really struggle to get pressure or sacks.
Najee Harris (Steelers) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Raiders
This is just like the Josh Jacobs pick last week where we’re counting on the player with the most touches in the league without a touchdown to finally find the end zone in 2024. Najee Harris is up to 94 touches without a score. Keep in mind, that he has scored 8-to-10 touchdowns in each of his first three seasons.
Maybe the Raiders are the team where Pittsburgh’s scoring droughts go to die. It was last season in Vegas when Kenny Pickett had the only game of his career with multiple touchdown passes. Now that would be annoying if Justin Fields threw multiple touchdowns and saved none for Najee in this one, but the Steelers need to start putting up some points for Fields to keep this job now that Russell Wilson is practicing again.
Let’s not turn 2024 Najee Harris into 2022 Diontae Johnson, who infamously scored no touchdowns that entire season despite 147 targets and 86 receptions. That was supposed to be Matt Canada’s fault, but the Steelers are out of that excuse this year.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Calvin Ridley Anytime Touchdown Scorer & A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Buccaneers ML & Andy Dalton Over 220.5 Passing Yards & Najee Harris Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+3962 at FanDuel)
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