The NFL has a solid Week 5 schedule with Jets-Vikings kicking things off early in the first London game of the 2024 season. We have some NFL picks based on revenge games this week with Sam Darnold taking on the Jets and Stefon Diggs seeing the Bills in Houston. There’s also some good prime-time games with Cowboys-Steelers on Sunday night and Saints-Chiefs to end the week on Monday.
In recapping our Week 4 NFL picks, the 49ers covered the first double-digit spread of the season with relative ease against the Patriots, and the rookies in Arizona (Jayden Daniels and Marvin Harrison Jr.) did not disappoint for us. Unfortunately, Gardner Minshew barely threw the ball for the Raiders to sink our AFC North parlay on the last leg, the Bills flopped in Baltimore, and I guess I should have checked the weather reports for the Jets laying an egg against Denver.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Cardinals at 49ers: Let’s Do It Again, San Francisco
Our top pick last week was the 49ers covering a 10.5-point spread at home against the Patriots, and they won 30-13 even if the offense wasn’t firing on all cylinders with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel returning. The defense harassed Jacoby Brissett with 6 sacks and scored on a pick-six.
I wanted to do something related to the 49ers scoring a lot of points in this game as Brock Purdy has done very well against Arizona, and he has his weapons back outside of Christian McCaffrey, who keeps getting worse news about his legs.
But in the end, let’s just go with the spread again as the 49ers are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Cardinals, who have really struggled to score the last two weeks at home and were blown out 42-14 against Washington last week. We know the Cardinals lack stars on defense, and they rank 29th in points allowed per game (26.5).
In the last two seasons, the 49ers are 4-0 against Arizona with victories of 38-10, 38-13, 35-16, and 45-29. They have this team’s number and should roll again this weekend to stack some wins for the first time this season.
Scott’s NFL Pick: 49ers -7.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
2. Ravens at Bengals: The Stars Score
One of the best games this week is Baltimore at Cincinnati. They may only be 2-2 and 1-3 on the season, but both offenses are clicking coming into this one, and it’s a very important AFC North game with both sides knowing what’s at stake.
We have a 2-leg parlay trusting Derrick Henry and Ja’Marr Chase to score touchdowns for their teams.
Henry looks fantastic after a slow start in Week 1, and he would be my favorite pick for Offensive Player of the Year right now. He leads the NFL with 6 touchdowns and has scored in every game. He’s fully taken over that job Gus Edwards had to score the short touchdowns, and as we saw last week against Buffalo, he can still take one the distance from 87 yards out.
The Bengals have not looked great on defense, and they’ve already allowed lead-backs like Rhamondre Stevenson (Patriots), Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders), and Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) to find the end zone. Look for Henry to do it at least once here.
As for Ja’Marr Chase, he still may not have his contract extension, but he has 3 touchdowns in the last two games and is back on track with Joe Burrow. The Ravens have not been as strong defensively as they were last year, and Chase has had success against them in the past.
With the Bengals desperately needing a win at home to avoid starting 1-4, I’m still trusting Chase more than anyone to score for this team as he has the home-run ability and is a good red-zone target too.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+243 at FanDuel)
3. Browns at Commanders: Amari Cooper Raising His Trade Stock?
There’s been talk about Amari Cooper going on the trade block this year, perhaps to a team like the Chiefs. But he’ll need to shine against a bottom-ranked pass defense like the Commanders to raise his draft price and help the Browns get a win.
We have seen Mike Evans, Ja’Marr Chase, Malik Nabers, and Marvin Harrison Jr. all score touchdowns, including games with multiple scores, as No. 1 wide receivers against this Washington defense. Cooper himself has scored in four straight meetings with Washington, a former division rival of his when he played with Dallas.
Cooper scored two touchdowns against the Giants earlier this season, another former rival he’s used to playing. We’re going to trust the matchup and take the value in these odds for him to score this week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Amari Cooper Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+230)
4. Packers at Rams: A Touchdown for Jacobs, a Win for Jordan Love
Can the Packers please play a game like the team we expected to see this year with Jordan Love? They’re 0-2 with Love, who has been sloppy with turnovers, leading to high-scoring games. They were 2-0 with Malik Willis, who allowed coach Matt LaFleur to call a more creative run-based offense, and the defense played great in those matchups.
Let’s see if the Packers can finally put it together for a win with Love against the struggling Rams, who still don’t have Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua at receiver.
But in addition to trusting the Packers to win against a Sean McVay team that LaFleur has been successful against, we’re waiting on Josh Jacobs to get his first touchdown with his new team. He has 78 touches this year but no touchdowns yet, which is tied with Najee Harris for the most touches without a touchdown in 2024. We’re banking on that drought to end this week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Packers ML (+150 at FanDuel)
5. Saints at Chiefs: Can Someone Beat Kansas City in the Fourth Quarter?
Something has to give in Kansas City this Monday night:
- The Chiefs have won 10 straight games, including nine one-score games.
- The Chiefs have won 7 straight games by 1-7 points, tied for the longest streak in NFL history.
- The Chiefs have won 10 straight games without scoring more than 27 points in any game, which is one game shy of tying the NFL record held by the 1928-29 Packers (11 games).
- The Saints are the only NFL team to not win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023.
- The Saints have taken a late lead in back-to-back weeks before blowing it in the final minute to the Eagles and Falcons to fall to 2-2.
- The 2024 Saints are +57 in scoring differential, the highest by any team without a winning record in the Super Bowl era for a 4-game start to a season.
The 4-0 Chiefs come into this game as a 5.5-point home favorite, but they actually have a lower scoring differential (+20) this season than the 2-2 Saints (+57) have. We know they won’t have Rashee Rice for at least the next month, and they are still without running back Isiah Pacheco. The injuries keep piling up for Andy Reid’s offense, which has not scored a ton of points for many games now.
The Saints are flailing a bit, but the defense has yet to allow 20 points in any game this season. You have to keep in mind the Falcons were gifted two touchdowns last week on lucky bounces that went against the Saints, including a muffed punt recovered in the end zone (rare feat).
I guess the logical pick here would be the Chiefs to finally beat a team by more than 7 points, or to pick the Saints as the outright winner. I would recommend the latter there as Derek Carr has had some big games against the Chiefs before. See his 40-32 win in Kansas City in 2020 with the Raiders.
But I am hung up on this fourth-quarter drought for the Saints, so I like them to outscore the Chiefs in the fourth quarter. Technically, the Ravens (10-7) and Falcons (3-0) have already done that to them this season. They just didn’t finish the game off for a win.
Scott’s NFL Pick: 4th Quarter Winner – New Orleans Saints (+124 at FanDuel)
6. Cowboys at Steelers: Pittsburgh Seeks Faster Start
We have a 2-leg parlay for 1st quarter receiving props for two Pittsburgh receivers:
- George Pickens Over 5.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards
- Pat Freiermuth Over 1.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards
The Steelers were cooking in the passing game late in last week’s loss to the Colts, but they know they need to start games much faster on offense. They should come out throwing Sunday night to test the Cowboys, who lost pass rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries. The secondary has also been banged up, and you saw them lose track of star rookie Malik Nabers early in last week’s game.
That’s why I like the Steelers to take advantage with these soft 1st quarter lines for George Pickens, their best receiver, and tight end Pat Freiermuth, who has caught at least 4 balls every week this season.
One good throw from Justin Fields to each receiver should take care of this 2-leg parlay in the 1st quarter. The Steelers can’t get lost in trying to establish the run. Start throwing early to put up points and let T.J. Watt and company rush the passer with the lead.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – George Pickens Over 5.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards & Pat Freiermuth Over 1.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (+236 at FanDuel)
7. A Revenge-Worthy Sunday Parlay (5 Legs)
For Sunday, we have some revenge-themed picks for a 5-leg parlay with better than +940 odds:
Vikings-Jets: Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
A lot of talk already this season about how the Jets failed Sam Darnold’s development all those years. This will not be the first time he plays them as he’s already done so with Carolina to open the 2021 season. In a 19-14 win, Darnold threw for 279 yards and 1 touchdown pass.
But Darnold is playing his best football right now, and he’s thrown multiple touchdowns in every game this season. You could replace this line with his over in passing yards instead, but I think he shines all around in London against his former team and throws multiple touchdowns. The Vikings are rolling right now at 4-0.
Bills-Texans: Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards & Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions
There will be much focus on Stefon Diggs facing Buffalo for the first time since April’s trade. He has been off to a good start in Houston, but I wouldn’t go all in on him dominating this game with yardage and a touchdown. Instead, I’d go with him going over 4.5 receptions as he is going to see his touches, but I’d also play Nico Collins getting at least 60 yards. Collins has been fantastic and is clearly the No. 1 even with the presence of Diggs.
Jaguars ML vs. Colts
We’re still not sure if Anthony Richardson (hip) or Joe Flacco will be the quarterback for the Colts in this one, but it doesn’t matter to me. Richardson would be preferable, but I’m going with the Jaguars, a 2.5-point home favorite, to get their first win of 2024 and end what is now a 9-game losing streak for games started by Trevor Lawrence.
The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since the 2014 season. It’s their personal hell on Earth, and the Jaguars desperately need a win before they start talking about firing coach Doug Pederson any week now. The Colts have flaws on defense against the run and the pass, and for whatever reason they never play well in Jacksonville.
Besides, it’s not like the Jaguars are getting blown out this year. They’ve just so happened to blow two fourth-quarter leads against the Dolphins and Texans. They’re long overdue for a win and it should come at home in the division.
Seahawks ML vs. Giants
Finally, I know the Seahawks played poorly on defense on Monday night, allowing the Lions to set a record with a 100% completion percentage (19-for-19). Daniel Jones has been completing a good rate of passes, but there is fear that rookie Malik Nabers (concussion) won’t be able to play due to injury. He has been carrying the passing game for Jones, so that would be a huge loss.
But I’m going to trust the Seahawks to bounce back at home against a much lesser offense, and hopefully, the defense will be healthier this week. They should win as a 6.5-point home favorite.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Sam Darnold Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Nico Collins 60+ Receiving Yards & Stefon Diggs Over 4.5 Receptions & Jaguars ML & Seahawks ML (+943 at FanDuel)
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