The NFL has given us a solid Week 4 schedule with some key division games such as Vikings-Packers, Saints-Falcons, and Chiefs-Chargers. But we’re really looking forward to Sunday night with a parlay of NFL picks for when the Ravens host the Bills, and we want to see if Andy Dalton can shock the Bengals into an 0-4 start in Carolina.
In recapping our Week 3 NFL picks, things got off to a good start with Andy Dalton and the Colts both delivering. But the Vikings proved me wrong once again, Derek Carr proved why I have been right to not trust him, and our parlays were sunk by CeeDee Lamb fumbling in the red zone instead of scoring a touchdown, and the Patrick Mahomes to Travis Kelce connection was a letdown once again in Atlanta.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to pick a running back to rush for 25+ yards. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Patriots at 49ers: The Sky Is Not Falling in San Francisco
We have the first double-digit spread of the 2024 NFL season with the 49ers, a 10.5-point home favorite against the Patriots. What could possibly go wrong? Favorites of 6.5 points are only 1-6 SU this year, a stat that is hard to believe.
But I am going to believe in the 49ers this week. It looks like George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are ready to return as they have props available already. Brock Purdy played a fantastic game despite the loss to the Rams, a game where the 49ers missed a late field goal that would have put them up 10.
The Patriots are not built to come from behind with their passing game, which they barely want to use. After losing 24-3 to the Jets last week, they are sticking with Jacoby Brissett over rookie Drake Maye for now, but don’t be surprised if Maye comes off the bench. Still, I like for the 49ers to end the 2-game slide, win by closer to two touchdowns, and cover the biggest spread of the year.
Scott’s NFL Pick: 49ers -10.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
2. Vikings at Packers: Aaron Jones Triumphantly Returns to Green Bay
I’ve been picking against the Vikings every week and paying for it, so you know what’s probably going to happen here once I finally go with a pro-Minnesota pick. Cue up the Robert Tonyan or C.J. Ham touchdown.
But let’s go with Aaron Jones finding the end zone in his return to Lambeau Field. He has scored in 2-of-3 games for Minnesota, including a receiving touchdown last week against Houston as he still has that ability. He’s outpacing Tyson Chandler 54 to 28 in touches, so he’s getting a good chunk of the running back opportunities in this offense.
The Packers gave up three touchdowns to Saquon Barkley in Brazil, so hopefully they’ll be able to find a way to get Jones to think about doing a Lambeau Leap against his former team in this one in a huge matchup for the NFC North lead.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Aaron Jones Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125 at FanDuel)
3. Broncos at Jets: Aaron Rodgers Is Back
Props to the Broncos for finding a way to upset the Buccaneers last week in a dominant performance. But I think it goes the other way here as the Jets, a 7.5-point favorite, have a better defense, and the offense looks to be figuring things out with Aaron Rodgers coming off an excellent game against the Patriots, arguably his best performance since 2021.
There is also some heat between these coaching staffs after Denver coach Sean Payton publicly criticized the job Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett did in Denver in 2022. We saw this come to a head last year when the Jets won 31-21 in Denver with Zach Wilson at quarterback.
Now you add Rodgers, put the Jets at home against a rookie quarterback like Bo Nix, and I like the 2-leg parlay of Rodgers throwing multiple touchdowns again while the Jets cover a 3.5-point alternate spread.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jets -3.5 (+147 at FanDuel)
4. Seahawks at Lions: In Geno We Trust
We have a line/total points double-pick for Monday night’s best game between the Lions and Seahawks. These teams have met early in the season in Detroit the last two years, and the Seahawks won 48-45 in 2022 and 37-37 in overtime last year. Geno Smith delivered in both games with over 320 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions in each game.
Smith is playing very well to begin this year, certainly better than Jared Goff has for the Lions. The Seahawks also have a defense that is thriving under rookie coach Mike Macdonald, though the Lions are the toughest test they’ll have faced yet.
Still, the Lions have not been clicking on all cylinders offensively, and you should expect a lower-scoring game compared to their last two matchups that both went over 67.5 points.
But the Seahawks are 6-1 in their last seven games, Smith has been pretty good in the clutch since 2022, and I like the Seahawks to stay close in this one and possibly even win it. The pick is for Seattle +4.5 and over 39.5 points as both teams should have a decent shot of getting to 20 points.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Line/Total Points Double – Seahawks +4.5 & Over 39.5 Points (+145)
5. Rookie of the Year Showdown in Arizona: Jayden Daniels vs. Marvin Harrison Jr.
Here’s a novel concept: Let’s have a game expected to be a shootout turn into a shootout in the 2024 season. So far, games with a total of at least 49.0 points have seen the under go 6-1. The only game to go over was the 34-29 game in Brazil on that messy field between the Eagles and Packers. So, none of the six games played in NFL stadiums have gone over yet this season.
But frankly, we’re not betting on the over here. We’re just hoping the rookie stars of September look as good as they have this week against two suspect defenses. We want Marvin Harrison Jr. to score another touchdown and Jayden Daniels to throw for at least 200 yards. Nothing too elaborate.
The Washington pass defense is abysmal, especially against those big No. 1 receivers as Mike Evans (Week 1) and Ja’Marr Chase (Week 3) have already had games with 2 touchdowns against them. Rookie Malik Nabers also scored against the Commanders in Week 2. We’re waiting for a big game from Harrison Jr. here as he’s scored in consecutive games too for Arizona. Kyler Murray should be going deep this week and Harrison Jr. is his man for that.
But there’s also a lot to love with the drive engineering of Jayden Daniels, who has led 14 straight scoring drives when you exclude kneeldowns. He’s thrown for 254 and 226 yards in his last two games, and again, the Arizona defense is filled with a lot of no-name players.
This could be a track meet, and we’re rooting for a ton of yards and points here.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Marvin Harrison Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards (+197 at FanDuel)
6. AFC North Throwbacks
We have a 3-leg parlay involving some AFC North teams dealing with some thorns in their side from recent matchups:
Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards vs. Steelers
The Steelers are off to a dominant defensive start as they have allowed just 8.7 points per game. They have also allowed the fewest yards, first downs, and rank No. 1 on both third down and in the red zone. Pretty impressive stuff.
But my gut tells me Shane Steichen might have the secret sauce to deal with this defense and neutralize T.J. Watt. It’s called a great offensive line and blocking. The Colts are getting very erratic quarterback play from Anthony Richardson, and that no doubt could make it hard for them to win this game. But Jonathan Taylor has been consistent on the ground despite Richardson’s struggles. He also rushed for 86 yards in his last meeting with the Steelers in 2022.
Taylor missed last year’s game in December against the Steelers when Steichen and his backups won 30-13. Using backs like Trey Sermon (88 yards) and Tyler Goodson (69 yards), Steichen’s offense had no problem putting up 30 points that day.
I contemplated using the Colts to go over 19.5 points in this game, but Richardson scares me too much. Instead, let’s go with Taylor to hit 75 rushing yards again as the healthy lead back.
Andy Dalton 200+ Passing Yards vs. Bengals
What if Andy Dalton is this year’s Joe Flacco? An old veteran who just starts throwing for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns every week.
I should have risked it all for Dalton last week as he delivered with 319 yards and 3 touchdowns. You could have had him for 300 yards at +750 odds. He won’t be as valuable this week, but there are also some injury concerns with his receivers as Adam Thielen (hamstring) is out and Diontae Johnson is dealing with a groin injury but should play.
My initial pick was for Dalton to throw for over 231.5 passing yards, but am dialing it back a little to 200 with the news of Johnson’s injury. But you saw the way the Bengals had no answers for Jayden Daniels on Monday night, including his wide receivers producing on that secondary.
I just like the game script for this one as even if Joe Burrow and the Bengals drop 35 points, Dalton will have to keep throwing to catch up, so that should be good for his volume.
Gardner Minshew Over 209.5 Passing Yards vs. Browns
Are we really talking about benching Gardner Minshew already for Aidan O’Connell in Vegas? Minshew has passed for at least 214 yards in each game, and it would have been over 250 in each game if he wasn’t benched late last week in the upset loss to Carolina.
But look for that to motivate Minshew to play better this week, and the Cleveland defense does not travel well. Minshew faced them last year at home with the Colts, and he passed for 305 yards on 15-of-23 passing in a wild 39-38 game.
I don’t believe the Raiders are going to be able to run the ball, so it’s going to be up to Minshew to keep throwing in this one.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jonathan Taylor Over 74.5 Rushing Yards & Andy Dalton 200+ Passing Yards & Gardner Minshew Over 209.5 Passing Yards (+393 at FanDuel)
7. Sunday Night Parlay: Bills vs. Ravens
In the game of the week on Sunday night between the Bills and Ravens, we have a 6-leg parlay that is pro-Buffalo:
- Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer: He hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown the last two games but look for Allen to take matters into his own hands against a physical defense like the Ravens.
- Khalil Shakir 4+ Receptions: He’s caught all 14 of his targets this year and has emerged as the new No. 1 in Buffalo. He’s gone over 4.5 catches the last two games too.
- Derrick Henry 50+ Rushing Yards: He’s warming up with 84 and 151 yards on the ground the last two games after a slow debut in Kansas City.
- Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards: He’s cleared this in all three games and running is what Jackson still does best.
- Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Buffalo has been stingy on defense for the last 10 quarters, the Ravens are usually getting rushing touchdowns from Henry, and Jackson has not thrown more than one touchdown pass in his last four starts.
- Bills Over 22.5 Points: They look outstanding and are averaging 37.3 points per game while the Ravens have allowed 27, 26, and 25 points this season.
You can go the extra length and add a Buffalo victory if you want, but we’ll settle for the offensive marks from these important players in what should be a great matchup to end Sunday’s Week 4 action.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Khalil Shakir 4+ Receptions & Derrick Henry 50+ Rushing Yards & Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards & Lamar Jackson Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Bills Over 22.5 Points (+2040 at FanDuel)
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- 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 4: Josh Allen’s MVP Push, the Grand Return of Andy Dalton, and Jayden Daniels’ Amazing Start
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3
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- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 2
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 1
- 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 2: Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen Still on Top
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