NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar20/09/2024 - 01:54 pm
(Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

The NFL is going through an offensive lull as the passing numbers are at their lowest point in the 32-team era to start the 2024 season. It’s also been a nightmare in trusting the biggest favorites to cover the spread for your NFL picks so far as touchdown favorites were 0-7-2 ATS in Weeks 1-2. Alas, the Jets (-6.5) broke through with a big 24-3 win over the Patriots on Thursday night. Maybe that tide will turn this weekend.

In recapping our Week 2 NFL picks, it was a nightmarish week as we kept coming up short on something outside of the under hitting in Giants-Commanders thanks to the Giants not having a field goal kicker for extra points. But we were let down by the Ravens (-8.5) winning the game after Derrick Henry did his part, Derek Carr threw a pick but not before he led the Saints to six straight touchdowns in a win over Dallas, Sam Darnold was only picked once instead of twice, and the Houston offense couldn’t do its part after we nailed that the Steelers would hold Denver under 17.5 points.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to pick a -250 touchdown scorer, which should be illegal by the sportsbooks to offer. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. As last week showed, mixing things up can be beneficial.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. I Believe in Andy Dalton Way More Than Bryce Young

The Panthers benched quarterback Bryce Young this week, and it’s hard not to blame them. Going back to last year, Young has led the Panthers to 13 points over their last four games, tied for the fewest points scored in any 4-game span in the NFL since 1978.

This means veteran Andy Dalton will start. He made just one start for the Panthers last year, and it was a 37-27 loss in Seattle where he threw for 361 yards and 2 touchdowns on 58 attempts. That’s more points than Young led Carolina to in 17-of-18 career starts.

In facing the Raiders this week, I like a passing game to develop and for Dalton to easily outdo the numbers Young has shown this year. Look for him to hit his passing over as the Panthers haven’t proven they can be trusted to run the ball or play good defense. Not promising a win or anything, but Dalton is going to put up some volume that will make this look like an NFL offense again instead of last week when Young completed 18 passes for 84 yards, a record in futility.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Andy Dalton Over 212.5 Passing Yards (-110 at bet365)

2. Anthony Richardson Finally Wins a Game for the Colts

You may not recognize that Anthony Richardson is 0-4 in the games he’s played most of the snaps in for the Colts in his career. That’s not encouraging, but neither was his performance last week in Green Bay when he missed more easy throws and threw a trio of picks in a low-scoring loss.

However, I’m going to trust Richardson this week. The Bears have a good defense, but Richardson can lean on Jonathan Taylor and win a low-scoring game here. The Colts have a horrible run defense, but the Bears are so bad up front that their running backs are averaging 2.0 yards per carry and rookie Caleb Williams took 7 sacks last week.

I do not think the Bears can exploit the run defense of the Colts the way the Texans and Packers did with Green Bay winning despite a limited game from Malik Willis last week. Let’s hope for Richardson to protect the ball and manage the team to a win here with the small spread at home.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Colts -1.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

3. In C.J. Stroud We Trust

Not the battle of 2-0 teams everyone expected, but that’s mostly because of the shock of the Vikings’ start with Sam Darnold at quarterback. But don’t discount the impact of defensive coordinator Brian Flores, who mixes it up as well as anyone. But this season, he is consistently sending 4-to-5 man rushes.

This can always change on a weekly basis, but I’m putting my trust in the Texans studying where the 49ers went wrong last week (multiple turnovers and failures on fourth down despite moving the ball well between the 20s) and being prepared for this one as young quarterback C.J. Stroud gets his first look at this defense.

With Joe Mixon banged up and possibly not playing, look for Stroud to clean up some of those misses in the second half last week and perform well on the road with a couple of touchdown passes to his talented receiving crew.

I also trust the Houston defense to force Darnold, who has played very well but has also been picked in both games, into mistakes and get this win to improve to 3-0.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – C.J. Stroud Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Texans ML (+150 at FanDuel)

4. I Believe in Derek Carr Now?

Well, I called Derek Carr’s bluff last week, predicting he’d get picked off in Dallas in a loss. But he won there in a big way, and he may have set some history in the process. Carr began this season with 15 straight scoring drives for his offense, and none of us have been able to find a streak longer than 13 straight scoring drives for a quarterback. Drew Brees did that in 2018, but even some of the all-time great quarterback seasons for juggernaut offenses like Tom Brady in 2007 (Patriots) and Peyton Manning in 2013 (Broncos) didn’t have 10 straight scores.

It’s one thing to do it against the lowly Panthers, but Carr lit up Dallas with Micah Parsons and company last week. Sure, we saw the Cowboys struggle like that in the playoffs with Jordan Love too, but this is also a continuation of how well Carr played to end 2023 as well.

In his last six games, Carr has 17 touchdown passes and is averaging 240.2 passing yards per game at 8.63 yards per attempt. He doesn’t throw for a ton of yards, but when you look at the problems the Eagles continue to have at tackling receivers, it’s not hard to see some big plays happening in the dome this Sunday.

Carr has also thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven straight games. He is playing the best ball of his career, and I’m going to trust it to continue this week and take him to throw for at least 225 yards with multiple touchdowns again.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Derek Carr Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Derek Carr 225+ Passing Yards (+150 at FanDuel)

5. Small NFL Picks Parade (Daniel Jones and Bo Nix)

Interceptions have been one of the best betting markets this season with the league-wide interception rate up to 2.5%, which would be the highest since the 2013 season. That’s another facet of the defenses feasting against these quarterbacks right now.

We hit a 3-leg pick parlay in Week 1, so let’s go back to that idea with a couple of passers who should get picked at least once this week.

Look out for Daniel Jones on the road in Cleveland. That’s a defense who can get after him with Myles Garrett and company and force him into a mistake. The Browns are also due as the defense has yet to force a takeaway this season. Facing Danny Dimes is a good opportunity for some.

Bo Nix, bless his heart. He’s thrown multiple picks in both games already as the rookie is stuck being the leading rusher for an offense that can’t run the ball and lacks great receiver play. He’s in Tampa Bay this week, a defense that frustrated Jared Goff last week in Detroit, and Todd Bowles usually has something exotic cooked up for a young passer.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Daniel Jones Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted & Bo Nix Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+184 at FanDuel)

6. Ravens at Cowboys: Big D Parlay

We have a 4-leg parlay for the offensive stars to be on display in an important game between the Ravens (0-2) and Cowboys (1-1) this Sunday afternoon:

  • CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown Scorer
  • Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer
  • Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards
  • Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards

We saw CeeDee Lamb score last week for the first time this season. The Ravens have some issues in pass coverage, and there’s no better Dallas player to score than Lamb with the lack of running back quality and an injured Jake Ferguson at tight end. This could also be a really high scoring game again, so we like Lamb here.

Derrick Henry hasn’t been dominant in either game so far, but he has scored a short touchdown in both games. He’s filling that Gus Edwards role for the offense, and he should cash in again here.

We’ve seen Patrick Mahomes and Gardner Minshew have no problem clearing 225 passing yards against this Baltimore defense, which is missing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald already. The Cowboys could end up throwing a ton if they have to play from behind again as they have in their last two home games, disastrous losses against the Packers and Saints. Dak Prescott is usually good for passing volume at home.

Maybe the trickiest leg, you just have to trust Lamar Jackson to run often in a big game with the Ravens unable to afford an 0-3 start. His line is actually closer to 50 yards, but I think we’re being safe and smart here with 40 in this game. He’s cleared it in both games this year, and with ease in Kansas City when he had 122 yards. He shouldn’t run that much this week, but he is going to take matters into his own hands against this defense.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – CeeDee Lamb Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Dak Prescott 225+ Passing Yards & Lamar Jackson 40+ Rushing Yards (+540 at FanDuel)

7. Chiefs Getting Back to Basics vs. Falcons

To close things out Sunday night, we have a 5-leg parlay with the Chiefs getting back to their basics on the road in Atlanta:

  • Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 Passing Yards
  • Travis Kelce Over 6.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards
  • Rashee Rice 60+ Receiving Yards
  • Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
  • Chiefs ML

Remember, Patrick Mahomes usually throws for more yards on the road. It just feels like the Chiefs are more focused in road games and cut out the cutesy plays they do in front of the home crowd.

But after losing running back Isiah Pacheco to a fibula injury for the next 6-plus weeks, look for Mahomes to throw often in this one and hit his over after he had the fewest passing yards (151) in a game in his career that he finished last week. There’s also a chance this game gets into a shootout with Kirk Cousins and Mahomes throws out of necessity, or to make up for some early turnovers against a secondary with Jessie Bates and Justin Simmons.

A big passing game for Mahomes also means the best game this season for Travis Kelce, who cleans up the rumors that he’s washed after he’s put up 4 catches for 39 yards through Week 2. That’s why we like him to make a play early and go over 6.5 yards in the opening quarter.

With the Chiefs trying to avoid those safeties down the field, look for Rashee Rice to eat again in this game like he did in Week 1 against the Ravens. He also caught a deep one for a 44-yard touchdown last week. Xavier Worthy just doesn’t have the route tree right now to be a consistent weapon, and the Chiefs may be saving Kelce for later in the season. Rice is the guy right now and should have a good game.

But we also like Bijan Robinson to score his first touchdown of the season for the Falcons. He’s been their most consistent player, he’s averaging a high success rate as a runner and receiver, but he’s gone 41 touches without finding the end zone. That should change this week.

At the end of the day, I still think the Chiefs pull out the win after the Falcons are coming off Monday night’s emotional comeback win in Philadelphia. The Chiefs haven’t been dominant at all this year, but against an unfamiliar opponent on the road, that feels like a spot where they’ll shine and get the win, which would be their ninth in a row.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Patrick Mahomes Over 261.5 Passing Yards & Travis Kelce Over 6.5 1st Quarter Receiving Yards & Rashee Rice 60+ Receiving Yards & Bijan Robinson Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Chiefs ML (+1115 at FanDuel)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar20/09/2024 - 01:54 pm