The NFL has an interesting Week 2 lined up with Saints-Cowboys, Buccaneers-Lions, and Bengals-Chiefs looking like the standout games on Sunday. We have NFL picks ready for each as well as some of the other games.
In recapping our Week 1 NFL picks, it was a good debut (+4.6 units) on a week where the passing game really struggled around the league. Our 3-leg interception parlay hit, the Bears won a squeaker in unconventional fashion against the Titans, Nico Collins, and the Texans delivered, and Cowboys-Browns went over better than Tom Brady’s broadcasting debut did. Jalen Hurts botching the Tush Push hurt our Friday night pick, but the only regrettable pick was trusting the New York Giants to win a game.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to parlay the moneyline of the two big favorites, which is usually a bad idea value-wise in the long run. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. Return of the King: Derrick Henry vs. Raiders
We have a 3-leg parlay for Derrick Henry to have a big game against the Raiders this week:
- Derrick Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards
- Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer
- Ravens ML
I would have liked this pick even before we watched J.K. Dobbins and the Chargers run wild on the Raiders last week. Now I love it. But this is a clear bounce-back opportunity for the Ravens, who will not ask Lamar Jackson to run as much as he did in Kansas City (16 times), and they can instead get Derrick Henry established with a line that will hopefully avoid illegal formation penalties this time.
Henry also seems to have taken over Gus Edwards’ role of scoring short touchdowns, so look for him to find the end zone again in this one. But the Ravens should have a few problems keeping the Raiders, who scored 10 points last week, down on the scoreboard and getting this win.
Jackson is not losing at home to Gardner Minshew for a second season in a row after that upset by the Colts last year. This is an afternoon for King Henry and the defense to get the Ravens in the win column.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Derrick Henry Over 72.5 Rushing Yards & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Ravens ML (+161 at FanDuel)
2. Giants vs. Commanders: Fading the Offenses
The last time these teams met, it was a 31-19 game won by the Giants, but good luck seeing this offense score that many points here. Sure, you can point out how bad the Washington defense still looks despite hiring Dan Quinn as the new head coach, but let’s not forget the Giants first played a 14-7 game with this team last year when the defense was so bad.
You just can’t trust these teams with these offenses. The Giants lost 28-6 last week with Daniel Jones looking terrible. He threw another pick-six, his third since signing his extension.
The Commanders lost 37-20 in Tampa Bay, but the offense scored a touchdown in garbage time, and it’s not like we can trust Jones to light up this defense. Malik Nabers is also banged up already after one game for the rookie receiver.
The total is 42.5 points. Since 2006, there have been 175 NFL games with a total of exactly 42.5 points. The over has hit in the last five such games, but you have to go back to 2006 when the over was 7-0 in these games to find the last over streak of more than five games.
Yes, we’re banking on an under to break up this streak in a division game between lousy teams and offenses.
NFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
3. Saints at Cowboys: Prove Me Wrong, Derek Carr
Two of the more dominant performances in Week 1 belonged to the Saints (47-10 vs. Carolina) and Cowboys (33-17 vs. Browns). That’s not too surprising given the Cowboys won nine games by 20 points last year, and the Saints are now +110 in scoring differential over their last six games, easily the best in the NFL in that time.
But the Saints are not playing the NFC South this week as they did in 4-of-6 games during this run. The Cowboys are an elite team in the regular season, and they still looked strong as ever on defense in coordinator Mike Zimmer’s first game in taking over for Dan Quinn. They embarrassed Deshaun Watson last week.
This is a big opportunity for Derek Carr to show something on the road against a top team, and I just don’t trust him in such a game. He did win his last meeting in Dallas on Thanksgiving in the 2021 season in a game noted for a ludicrous number of penalties (14 on each team with many crucial ones coming against Dallas).
But Carr is also 0-2 against Zimmer’s defense in his career (Vikings in 2015 and 2019), and he was intercepted 3 times total in those games.
Carr was intercepted in eight games last year, and half of them were against winning teams. I’m calling his bluff in a big game and taking him to throw a pick in a loss.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Derek Carr Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted & Cowboys ML (-103 at BetRivers)
4. Baker Mayfield on a Roll
We are seeing some very low passing numbers around the NFL to start the 2024 season. Thursday night in Miami was another example as neither Josh Allen nor Tua Tagovailoa threw for 150 yards. Teams are not attacking deep as much with the two safeties there, and they are turning to running the ball more.
Things are setting up for something like Baker Mayfield possibly leading the league in passing yards. He was great in Week 1 with 289 yards and his 4 touchdown passes lead the league. Granted, he was playing a Washington defense that was the worst in 2023, but he gets the Lions this week. For this reason, we expect passing fireworks in Detroit, and we have a 3-leg parlay for the Tampa passing offense:
- Baker Mayfield Over 255.5 Passing Yards
- Mike Evans 4+ Receptions
- Chris Godwin 4+ Receptions
The Bucs hit those numbers with ease last week, but the reason to trust them again is that the Detroit defense is still giving up a lot of passing yards. The last seven quarterbacks to face Detroit all threw for at least 269 yards, and 6-of-7 threw for at least 317 yards, including Matthew Stafford last week. Mayfield has thrown for at least 283 yards in 6-of-7 games going back to last year.
Mayfield had 349 yards in January in the playoffs in Detroit. In that game, Chris Godwin had 4 catches for 40 yards while Mike Evans had 8 catches for 147 yards. The Godwin number is cutting it close, but he should be a reliable target this week.
In Baker we trust.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Baker Mayfield Over 255.5 Passing Yards & Mike Evans 4+ Receptions & Chris Godwin 4+ Receptions (+159 at FanDuel)
5. Hold Your Horses on Sam Darnold vs. 49ers
Sam Darnold had a strong Week 1 debut for the Vikings in New York last week. I didn’t trust him, but I was correct that he’d throw a pick. This week, I think he throws multiple picks as the 49ers come to town with a stingy defense that picked off Aaron Rodgers on Monday night.
The 49ers had Darnold in the building last year and got some first-hand looks at how he plays. He’s thrown an interception on 3.1% of his career passes, one of the worst rates of any quarterback in the last decade.
Against an elite team that should be playing from ahead, look for Darnold to get baited into mistakes and throw multiple picks. It might look like a Nick Mullens game from him.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Sam Darnold 2+ Passes Intercepted (+320 at bet365)
6. High and Low: Houston Offense and Pittsburgh Defense
We have a 2-leg parlay on teams we like to get the job done on one specific side of the ball Sunday:
- Texans Over 26.5 Points vs. Bears
- Broncos Under 17.5 Points vs. Steelers
Houston looked incredibly balanced last week with over 200 yards rushing and passing. Joe Mixon rushed for 159 yards and Stefon Diggs caught two touchdowns in his debut. Pretty good start for the new additions. But this is trusting C.J. Stroud in prime time at home to run up a good number of points against a Chicago team that still has some work to do. Too many weapons for Houston.
In Denver, look for T.J. Watt to continue building his Defensive Player of the Year case against rookie quarterback Bo Nix. While the Broncos got to 20 points last week, they needed two safeties, and the offense scored just 16 points on 15 drives. The Steelers are going to run and play it safe with Justin Fields, so Denver likely won’t get that many possessions this week. We’re going to trust the Steelers can hold this lousy offense under 17.5 points after holding the Falcons to 10 points in the dome last week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Texans Over 26.5 Points & Broncos Under 17.5 Points (+229 at FanDuel)
7. Sticking It to Ja’Marr Chase Parlay
Last week, we had a big +3100 parlay to close things out, and while it would have died on Monday night when the first half overhit in San Francisco, it should have at least gotten that far with a hedge opportunity. But the Bengals just had to blow it Sunday afternoon in a 16-10 home loss to the Patriots despite being the biggest Week 1 favorite. We had a Ja’Marr Chase touchdown and the Bengals won that game.
So, the Bengals are playing the Chiefs in Kansas City this week, and Chase has declared “We are the team to beat in the AFC, and we know it” about his Bengals, the team who just lost to the Patriots at home. Is this confidence or delusions of grandeur?
But we have a 6-leg parlay with Chase at the center of things. Just not with the outcome he clearly expects in Kansas City:
- Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) 6+ Receptions
- Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) Over 71.5 Receiving Yards
- Chiefs ML
- J.K. Dobbins (Chargers) Over 55.5 Rushing Yards vs. Panthers
- Chargers ML
- Josh Jacobs (Packers) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Colts
Bengals at Chiefs
For this game, it doesn’t sound good that Tee Higgins will be back for the Bengals, leaving Chase as the clear-cut option and Joe Burrow’s most trusted receiver left. Chase caught 6-of-6 targets for 62 yards in the New England loss, and the only question may be why not target him more? He reportedly had food poisoning last weekend.
But if he wants the biggest wide receiver contract ever and is running his mouth for bulletin board material against Kansas City this week, then he better deliver with or without Higgins. So, I’m giving him at least 6 catches for 72 yards in this game, but I’m still giving the Chiefs (6.5-point favorite) the win as they are the better team and this one means something to them too as this has tried to become a big rivalry in the AFC since 2021.
Chargers at Panthers
How great was J.K. Dobbins last week? He looked fast in his Chargers debut, and he almost rushed for as many yards (135) as Justin Herbert (144) threw for. He had a 61-yard run, but he still rushed for 74 yards without that. The Chargers have a revamped line with rookie Joe Alt at right tackle, and they are going to bully more teams under Jim Harbaugh.
The Panthers got destroyed 47-10 in New Orleans last week. They made Alvin Kamara look like he found the fountain of youth (83 rushing yards) last week as the Saints rushed for 180 yards.
I know it’s tough to trust the Chargers, but the Panthers look rotten again, and Harbaugh is not Brandon Staley. Give me the Chargers to get to 2-0 with Dobbins going over in rushing again.
Josh Jacobs vs. Colts
You can leave this one out, or go with the over in rushing yards for Josh Jacobs – the number might be near 70 but anything with 50/50 odds should work – instead of the touchdown. But the thought here is Jordan Love won’t play with his MCL injury, Malik Willis has to start, and the Packers are going to lean on the run heavily like the Titans once did with Willis when he had Derrick Henry.
The good news is the Colts were destroyed by Joe Mixon on the ground last week for 159 yards. His rushing success rate was 63.3% too, so he was consistently beating them. None of his runs were longer than 13 yards. I don’t think Houston is going to be that great at running all year, so I lean towards the Colts being vulnerable up front.
Let’s see the Packers exploit that. Jacobs had 16 carries for 84 yards in Week1 in Brazil, but he’ll get a much better playing surface this time. Also, if Love somehow does play, that should only help Jacobs get a touchdown.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Ja’Marr Chase 6+ Receptions & Ja’Marr Chase Over 71.5 Receiving Yards & Chiefs ML & J.K. Dobbins Over 55.5 Rushing Yards & Chargers ML & Josh Jacobs Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1201 at FanDuel)
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