Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18

Scott Kacsmar03/01/2025 - 03:42 pm

The NFL has reached the final week of the 2024 regular season, and that means backups will be playing for some playoff teams, and you can expect some crazy results with some teams packing it in completely while others try to get their guys to hit some contract bonuses with milestones. But there are still some hugely important games like Bengals-Steelers and Vikings-Lions, so there was no shortage of NFL picks to find for the last time this regular season.

In recapping our Week 17 picks, it was a perfect start (Ladd McConkey and the Chargers) and finish (Lions -3.5), but the middle was a mess. That was a brutal beat on the Chase Brown touchdown as he injured his ankle while trying to slide and not score the touchdown we needed, so Joe Burrow snuck it in anyway. Brutal stuff. Then we should have done Saquon Barkley’s yards instead of touchdowns, but no such decision this week as he’s resting instead of pursuing the rushing record.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Saints at Buccaneers: Mike Evans Coming for His Streak and Division Title

All that stands between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their fourth-straight NFC South title is the New Orleans Saints, the team they scored 51 points against earlier this year. Tampa is a 13.5-point home favorite in this one, and even if they somehow lose it, they could still win the division if the Falcons slip up against the Panthers.

But let’s assume the Bucs take care of business here and sweep a poor, severely injured New Orleans team that can’t score points right now behind rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler.

The other stat to keep an eye on here is that Mike Evans needs just 85 receiving yards to finish with 1,000 for the 11th year in a row, extending his record streak to begin a career. We know the streak is important to Evans, and we know he hates the Saints more than just about any opponent even after Marshon Lattimore has been dealt to Washington and will no longer be there.

Some sportsbooks are setting Evans’ line pretty high around 95 or so. We’ll play it smart and take 80+ yards for Evans, because that would be incredibly annoying if he finished with 86 yards or so, making the over come up short while still giving him his 1,000 yards. You could spice it up if you want by throwing in 70+ rushing yards for Bucky Irving, who should have another big game to end his rookie season against this poor run defense.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Mike Evans 80+ Receiving Yards & Buccaneers ML (odds TBD at FanDuel)

2. Bengals at Steelers: Mike Tomlin’s Not Losing Out, Is He?

Are the Steelers really going to go from a 10-3 start to losing their last four games and then losing in the playoffs, possibly in Baltimore? It is very plausible with the way they’ve been playing, and the oddsmakers have made them a 2-point underdog at home this Saturday night against the Bengals.

But this is exactly the spot where Mike Tomlin’s team should deliver. The defense was able to get healthy with the extra days off since Christmas, so corner Joey Porter Jr. will be back. The defense already sacked Joe Burrow four times, forced three takeaways, and scored a touchdown in the last meeting despite it ending 44-38. They also dropped a Burrow pick in the red zone before he threw his last touchdown, or else it would have been a fourth takeaway. Throw in Chase Brown injuring his ankle and the Bengals may not have their dual-threat back available for this one, and Tee Higgins is also not 100%.

Maybe the main reason to like the Steelers is that they have been prolific on offense against Lou Anarumo’s defense going back to 2022 performances. They’ve done it with Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, and Russell Wilson at quarterback, including Wilson’s 414-yard passing performance in Cincinnati where he took advantage of short passes to the running backs in a way you never see from this offense. They were on point that day, and they’ve been shredding the Bengals in a variety of ways the last few years.

The Steelers may very well go one-and-done in the playoffs, so this could be the last chance to deliver a win for this season in front of a depressed crowd due to this 3-game losing streak. A lot of people want the Bengals in the playoffs because of the potential exciting matchups with Buffalo and then Kansas City if there’s a wild card upset, but there’s also a reason this team was 4-8 and needs help even if they win this game. They still need the Dolphins to lose to the Jets and the Broncos to lose to Kansas City’s backups (more on that below).

If you believe in the theory that a team’s biggest flaws will be their undoing, then this is the perfect game for the Bengals to go into that dark night and see their season end with a loss in Pittsburgh. Between T.J. Watt rushing off the edge to Russ trying to prove he deserves an extension against one of the worst defenses in the league that he’s already destroyed, then this should be a good night for the Steelers. The Bengals are 0-7 against teams currently in the playoffs.

Tomlin is also 18-12 (60%) as a home underdog, the best record in the NFL since 2007. That includes a 9-5 (64.3%) record since 2021. I’ll back the Steelers for your NFL picks this Saturday night.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Steelers ML (+110 at FanDuel)

3. Chiefs at Broncos: Is This a 2004 Steelers-Bills Homage?

The Chiefs are 15-1 but resting their key starters with the No. 1 seed locked up. The Broncos are 9-7 and a 10.5-point home favorite here against a team they would have already defeated at Arrowhead if not for that blocked 35-yard field goal. Throw in Carson Wentz at quarterback instead of Patrick Mahomes, and what could possibly go wrong for the Broncos with their season possibly on the line if the Bengals win Saturday night?

Well, the last time a 9-win team just needed to beat a 1-loss team’s backups at home to make the playoffs, we watched the 2004 Bills choke to the 15-1 Steelers, a game that put James Harrison on the map as he scored a defensive touchdown in the fourth quarter of a 29-24 upset. Yep, they even smashed the over that day.

Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs — (Photo by Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images)

This could very well happen again to Denver. That’s the thing about 15-1 teams who are used to winning games. They usually have good players on the bench and it’s not like you can just bench every starter on your roster.

I’m not saying the Chiefs are going to win the game outright, because they did struggle with Denver’s starters in the first meeting, and Sean Payton is a blocked field goal away from going 2-1 against this team since last year. But give me the Chiefs, a team that rarely ever loses by double digits, to cover that 10.5-point spread as I think the defense could at least give Bo Nix enough problems to not blow them out. Also, Carson Wentz can move the ball and he beat the 49ers’ backups with the Rams’ backups last year in this spot.

There are worse backups you can start.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chiefs +10.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

4. Teams Who Should Win with Ease Parlay

We have a 3-leg parlay on playoff teams who should win with relative ease this weekend:

Ravens (-19.5) to win by 14+ points vs. Browns
Packers (-10.5) ML vs. Bears
Chargers (-4.5) ML at Raiders

The Ravens are pretty self explanatory as they enjoy the largest spread this season at just under 20 points. They lost to the Browns (3-13) already this year, but that was because Jameis Winston shredded them and Kyle Hamilton dropped a game-ending interception, the worst such play by any defensive back this year.

It won’t happen again. Not with Bailey Zappe making his first start for the Browns after they had enough of their other quarterbacks. But this team can’t score right now, and it’s another good chance for the Baltimore defense, which has been coming on strong, to finish with a great game.

I’ll take the Ravens to win by at least two touchdowns in their final tune-up for the playoffs and final showcase for Lamar Jackson’s MVP bid.

It gets a little more interesting with Packers-Bears since that’s another division rematch where the lesser team (Chicago) almost won last time if not for a blocked field goal. But Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur is 11-0 against the Bears, who have lost 10 games in a row since their Hail Mary disaster in Washington.

Well, I think the Packers get to 12 wins, the best finish ever for a third-place team, and they send their rivals from Chicago to an 11th-straight loss to end this season. The Packers were lethargic for three quarters in Minnesota last week. Look for a stronger start and a comfortable win.

Then the last game is the smallest spread here, and the only concern is the Steelers win Saturday night and maybe the Chargers don’t go full energy to get to 11 wins since they’ll be the No. 6 seed even if they win this game. But I trust Jim Harbaugh to not let up and do a great job defensively against the Raiders. The Chargers will notch their 11th win in his first season and we’ll see if that’s enough to go to Houston for the wild card round or if it is a rematch of the Harbaugh Bowl again.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Baltimore Ravens by 14+ Points & Packers ML & Chargers ML (+129 at FanDuel)

5. Dolphins at Jets: Aaron Rodgers’ Swansong?

It is possible that Aaron Rodgers will play his final NFL game on Sunday. The 41-year-old has to make a decision in the coming months if he wants to give it another try with the Jets or another team in 2025, but you know he’s not leaving with 499 touchdown passes in his career.

He’ll come back and play for the worst team in football if he has to to get to 500 touchdown passes. The good news is he’s at home against Miami, the defense he shredded for 339 yards a month ago, his first 300-yard passing game since 2021. Look for Rodgers to throw a couple of touchdowns in this one.

But we’re also going to bet on the Jets to cover the small spread and quite possibly end Miami’s season as the Dolphins still have a shot at the playoffs if some things go their way this weekend. But Tua Tagovailoa has a hip injury, so it could be Tyler Huntley again. He was good last week in Cleveland, and the Jets have blown a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter.

So, that small spread could come into play. But we’re not going to predict Rodgers to throw up a dud in his potential final game of his career.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Aaron Rodgers 2+ Passing Touchdowns & Jets +1.5 (odds TBD at FanDuel)

6. Bengals at Steelers: Final Award Pushes

A game so nice, we had to come back to it twice? Okay, not exactly. There just aren’t many games right now with props available as the sportsbooks are being extremely cautious about setting lines for who may or may not play in the last week. So, we’re going to go with a couple of props from players who are holding out hope that they may win the Player of the Year award for offense and defense with a big final showing on Saturday night.

First, Ja’Marr Chase is chasing that triple crown, which he is comfortably ahead in each category to win. Maybe the closest race is he’s 133 yards ahead of Justin Jefferson, and we know Minnesota will be going all out for the No. 1 seed on Sunday night. So, look for Chase to have a good yardage game (over his line of 92.5 yards) as the Bengals have some banged up weapons in Tee Higgins and Chase Brown. The Steelers have also been giving up a lot of plays in the passing game to great receivers the last month.

But we’re also going to bet on T.J. Watt to get at least one sack as he does his last audition for Defensive Player of the Year. Watt hasn’t had his best stuff this year, but he leads the NFL with six forced fumbles, and Joe Burrow just took 7 sacks against Denver a week ago. The Steelers got him four times last time, and you know Watt wants to get as many sacks as he can to end this season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ja’Marr Chase Over 92.5 Receiving Yards & T.J. Watt to Record a Sack (+222 at FanDuel)

7. Vikings at Lions: One Last SGP for the Regular Season

Finally, we have a 6-leg Same Game Parlay for Sunday night’s incredible matchup between 14-2 teams to determine the No. 1 seed in the NFC. The Vikings are a 2.5-point road underdog with a total of 56.5 points, so another shootout is expected after the last matchup ended 31-29.

Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer
T.J. Hockenson 4+ Receptions
Jahmyr Gibbs 70+ Rushing Yards
Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ Receptions
Vikings +7.5

The last three times these teams met, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown both scored a touchdown. It might sound risky to predict it again, but who else is going to step up in the biggest game of the year to this point? Both guys are absolute dogs (in a good way), and you have to think they’re going to deliver again here. I like it a lot more than betting on Jahmyr Gibbs to score with like -290 odds. He barely got in the end zone on Monday night, only cashing in late in San Francisco.

However, I still like Gibbs’ props in this one, namely 70+ rushing yards and at least 3 catches. Those are modest numbers for him with David Montgomery out. Gibbs has been catching 4+ passes in recent weeks with his increased usage, he’s gone over 100 yards against Minnesota earlier this year, and he’s done it the last two games as well. He’s going to have good numbers again in this game.

One player who didn’t play in the first meeting this season was tight end T.J. Hockenson. The former Lion was injured, but since returning, he has had a solid connection with Sam Darnold. With the way the Lions are injured on defense and giving up plays in the passing game, I like Hockenson to get at least four catches.

Finally, I’m going to trust the Vikings with an alternate spread of +7.5 points. They have only lost one game this season by more than that, and that was because of the brutal missed facemask penalty against the Rams. But the Vikings have already played the Lions tough in a 31-29 game, they excel in close games under coach Kevin O’Connell, and with the way Darnold and the Detroit defense are playing, this has a solid chance of being a Minnesota victory and No. 1 seed.

Not bad for a team that was projected to finish dead last in this division. Can’t wait for this game to close the regular season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer & T.J. Hockenson 4+ Receptions & Jahmyr Gibbs 70+ Rushing Yards & Jahmyr Gibbs 3+ Receptions & Vikings +7.5 (+1118 at FanDuel)

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