Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 17

Scott Kacsmar27/12/2024 - 02:32 pm

The NFL is in a bit of a slump this week with some really lopsided games on Christmas, then a 6-3 dud last night between the Seahawks and Bears. Let’s hope for some better action for our NFL picks this weekend with a Saturday tripleheader highlighted by Broncos-Bengals and a Sunday slate where Packers-Vikings is the marquee game.

In recapping our Week 16 picks, only the Ravens came through against the Steelers (finally) in a very rough week as Jalen Hurts (concussion) left injured, the Buccaneers flopped in Dallas, Trey McBride still can’t catch a touchdown in 2024, and the Lions scored one trick play touchdown too many for our Bears-Lions pick.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, money lines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the money line of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick-off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Lions at 49ers: Revenge Tour Continues

The Detroit Lions are 13-2 and have had a great season despite so many injuries. One of their biggest blowout wins was a 47-9 game in Dallas where they seemed ready for some revenge at the site of the game where they lost last year due to a controversial penalty on a 2-point conversion. You might say Dan Campbell’s bunch can be petty, but they also cover the spread with the best of them.

Since Campbell took over as Detroit’s coach in 2021, the Lions are 47-22 ATS (68.1%), by far the best record in the NFL in that time. The Bengals (61.4%) are the only other team covering over 58% of the time in that span.

Even this season, the Lions are 10-5 ATS, one of the best records in 2024. One of the worst records is 5-10, held by the 49ers, one of this year’s biggest disappointments. The Lions are a 3.5-point road favorite in San Francisco this Monday night, and that’s another great opportunity for some revenge at the site of where the Lions blew a 17-point lead in the 2023 NFC Championship Game.

Between Josh Reynold’s costly drops and a fumble by Jahmyr Gibbs in the third quarter, that second half was a disaster for the Lions. But the 49ers have already been eliminated from the playoffs, they haven’t scored more than 17 points in the last month against anyone but Chicago and the Lions are still playing for that No. 1 seed and looking to make a statement again.

I love the Lions to win convincingly in this game, and I’ll keep it conservative and play the line as is with the Lions winning by 4 points or better.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Lions -3.5 (-104 at FanDuel)

2. Chargers at Patriots: New Eras

The Chargers had a hell of a time beating the Patriots in the Bill Belichick era, but nothing said that era was dying in 2023 like the week where the Chargers won 6-0 in Gillette Stadium.

We should get some more points this time, but I’m going to trust Jim Harbaugh and the new-look Chargers to control the game on the road, frustrate Drake Maye into mistakes, and win the game to get their 10th win of the season.

I also really like Ladd McConkey to hit 60 yards against a secondary that has struggled all year with defending wide receivers, and McConkey is still by far the most reliable weapon for Justin Herbert to throw to.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Ladd McConkey 60+ Receiving Yards & Chargers ML (+115 at FanDuel)

3. Broncos at Bengals: Staying Alive

A lot of people, me included, think it would be the best outcome for the quality of the AFC playoffs if the Bengals snuck in as that No. 7 seed and got to go to Buffalo for wild card weekend. That’d be a fantastic game given the way the Bengals have looked very good against the Bills in recent years.

But it seems as though the playoff odds are still a longshot for the Bengals, who are +1800 at FanDuel to make the tournament. They have to win out against the Broncos and Steelers, then they need Denver to lose to Kansas City’s backups (most likely) in Week 18, and they also need the Colts and Dolphins to lose a game each before the season ends. It doesn’t sound impossible, and crazier things have happened, but the odds are not favorable right now.

We’ll see how that changes this Saturday when the Bengals get to host Denver in a must-win game that Denver should also take very seriously as its spot is not secured yet. The Bengals were 4-8, but three straight wins have them at 7-8 with a chance. The defense is starting to get takeaways with 11 in the last three games alone, and that’s something that could benefit them against rookie Bo Nix, who has been turning it over recently.

The Bengals can also score, and the Broncos are 1-4 when allowing 20 points this year. Their only win was against Cleveland in a game where Jameis Winston threw a pair of pick-sixes.

Joe Burrow has a 7-game streak of throwing for 250 yards and three touchdowns. That very well could end in this game, which is why I like the idea of a Chase Brown touchdown as he hasn’t gone consecutive games without one since taking over as the lead back. I think he scores on the ground and Burrow finishes under 2.5 touchdown passes, but I just want to parlay a Brown touchdown with a Cincinnati win here.

Something to keep hope alive for the playoffs, but we’ll see if that 4-8 hole was simply too big to dig out of for the Bengals.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chase Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Bengals ML (+143 at FanDuel)

4. Cardinals at Rams: NFC West Clinching Time?

Technically, the Rams can’t win the division Saturday night with a win over the Cardinals. But if they do win the game, and if at least four other teams win their games Sunday, then they’ll win the division by clinching the strength of victory tiebreaker over Seattle.

So, it’s a big opportunity for the Rams, who have not done a lot of passing in their last few games with rain in San Francisco and limited possessions against the Jets. But the Cardinals have done a very good job of limiting Matthew Stafford’s receivers over the years even going back to 2021 when they were the only defense to contain Cooper Kupp.

Even in a 2023 game where Stafford threw four touchdowns, Puka Nacua had just 4 catches for 27 yards and Kupp was held to 3 catches for 18 yards. The Cardinals know this team well from facing them twice a year.

So, let’s go with Nacua to finish under 7.5 catches in this one. He was held to four catches in both games against the Cardinals last year. He was injured in Week 1 this year and missed the Week 2 game against Arizona, a 41-10 blowout win for the Cardinals.

But the Rams are playing much better football, Arizona is eliminated and may be going through the motions, and I like the Rams to get the win here at home as a 6.5-point favorite. Combine that with Nacua’s under 7.5 catches and you get a little negative correlation for +125 odds on things that should hit for your NFL picks this Saturday.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Puka Nacua Under 7.5 Receptions & Rams ML (+125 at FanDuel)

5. Packers at Vikings: Game of the Week Parlay

Here is a 6-leg parlay for the best game this weekend when the Packers and Vikings square off for the second time this year. The Vikings won 31-29 in Green Bay in a game that wasn’t quite as close as that score suggests. But it is still surprising to see the Vikings are a slight underdog at home here despite their 13-2 record.

Packers +10.5
Vikings +10.5
Sam Darnold 200+ Passing Yards
Jordan Love 200+ Passing Yards
Josh Jacobs 50+ Rushing Yards
Aaron Jones 50+ Rushing Yards

For the first two legs, I like a close game here on the scoreboard with neither team winning by more than 10 points. I know I said the 31-29 game wasn’t as close as that score suggests since the Vikings were up 28-0 before the Packers clawed back behind an inconsistent performance from Jordan Love.

But the Vikings have played a ton of close games this year, and won almost all of them, and I like this one to be close with the Packers coming in hot after a 34-0 shutout (first this NFL season) against the Saints. Unlike New Orleans, the Vikings are actual competition for them this week. In fact, Minnesota has trailed by more than 11 points for just seven snaps this year. Only the Chiefs have done better in that regard.

I also like the modest estimate for both quarterbacks to throw for over 200 yards. In the last game, Love had 389 yards (he threw it 54 times) while Darnold had an efficient 275 yards. Darnold has thrown for 200 yards in all but two games this year. Love has done so in 10-of-13 games, but he’ll need to throw to keep pace in this one.

Finally, I like both running backs to hit 50 yards. We know Josh Jacobs has been hot at scoring touchdowns, so that’s a consideration too. But he’s gone for 50 yards in all but two games this season, and he had 51 yards on a season-low 9 carries against the Vikings earlier because of the 28-0 deficit that shouldn’t happen this time.

As for the back Jacobs replaced in Green Bay, Aaron Jones is having a nice year for the Vikings. He had 93 yards against his former team after tying his season-high with 22 carries. He’s been held under 50 yards four times this year, but this game is meaningful to begin with, and it’s probably a little more meaningful for Jones against his former team.

Running back Aaron Jones of the Minnesota Vikings — (Photo by Todd Rosenberg/Getty Images)

Let’s just hope it’s not a blowout that screws up the running games for the team trailing. These odds are solid for what should come together nicely in a game between good offenses and two very good teams in the best division the NFL has this year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Packers +10.5 & Vikings +10.5 & Sam Darnold 200+ Passing Yards & Jordan Love 200+ Passing Yards & Josh Jacobs 50+ Rushing Yards & Aaron Jones 50+ Rushing Yards (+291 at FanDuel)

6. Cowboys at Eagles: Saquon’s Day

It does not sound good for Jalen Hurts to play this week after he was knocked out of last Sunday’s game with a concussion. Hurts did not practice Thursday, which is usually a bad sign for the new concussion protocol. However, the more damning evidence is that the sportsbooks have lines available for Kenny Pickett, the backup who would start for Hurts if he is indeed out.

But one thing we know about Kenny Pickett is he has the lowest touchdown pass rate (1.9%) in NFL history. He just doesn’t throw touchdowns, and he certainly doesn’t throw multiple touchdowns, something he’s done once in 24 career starts. He also isn’t one for the Tush Push the Eagles love to do with Hurts.

That’s why I like the idea of Saquon Barkley having a huge game as he tries to solidify his case for Offensive Player of the Year and maybe even MVP still if he can break Eric Dickerson’s rushing record for a season.

But with Hurts likely out, that opens up the touchdown opportunities for Barkley. Even better, the Cowboys are shutting down CeeDee Lamb with a shoulder injury, so they may not be very competitive or good in this game, increasing the probability of a runaway win for the Eagles, who are still trying to clinch the NFC East.

I’ll trust Barkley to shine here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Saquon Barkley to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+230 at FanDuel)

7. Falcons at Commanders: NFL Picks for Playoff Hopefuls

Finally, we have a 6-leg Same Game Parlay for Sunday night’s flex game between a couple of division title hopefuls in the Commanders and Falcons. Washington is a 4.5-point home favorite as rookies Jayden Daniels and Michael Penix Jr. square off for the first time and hopefully not the last in their careers.

Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards
Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Jayden Daniels 25+ Rushing Yards
Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards
Darnell Mooney 40+ Receiving Yards
Commanders ML

Rookie Jayden Daniels has been one of the best quarterbacks this season, and you can argue he’s having the best rookie quarterback season as a dual-threat weapon. The Falcons have been dominating on defense against poor offenses like the Raiders and Giants the last two weeks. Look for Daniels to put up some of his usual numbers like a minimum 200 passing yards and 25 rushing yards, and I like him to throw multiple touchdowns again after he had five last week against the Eagles.

Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Terry McLaurin has been the biggest beneficiary from the arrival of Daniels in Washington. He is having a career season with 12 touchdown catches and has scored in four straight games. I’m tempted to go for a fifth here, but I’ll cut it at 50-plus receiving yards, a line McLaurin has cleared in 11-of-15 games this year. He’s had 60 yards in 7-of-8 home games this season.

Darnell Mooney was a favorite target of Penix’s last week in his first start. He had 5 catches for 82 yards a week after a bagel against the Raiders despite playing 91% of the snaps. The Falcons are going to throw a bit more with Penix than they did with Kirk Cousins against the Raiders. Look for Mooney to find some soft coverage in that secondary and some big plays could easily catapult him above 40 yards in this one.

Finally, I like the Commanders to win this game in prime time and punch their ticket to the playoffs with an 11th win, something this franchise hasn’t achieved since the 1991 season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jayden Daniels 200+ Passing Yards & Jayden Daniels Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Jayden Daniels 25+ Rushing Yards & Terry McLaurin 50+ Receiving Yards & Darnell Mooney 40+ Receiving Yards & Commanders ML (+522 at FanDuel)

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