NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 15

Scott Kacsmar13/12/2024 - 09:19 am

Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins — (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)

The NFL is done with bye weeks, but what a weird way for Week 15 to start with no touchdowns between the Rams and 49ers in a 12-6 finish Thursday night. Let’s hope for more scoring than that in the big games this week that we have NFL picks for, including Bills-Lions, Steelers-Eagles, and Chiefs-Browns.

In recapping our Week 14 picks, what a brutal way to lose with Saquon Barkley rushing for 124 yards when we needed 125. At least the Eagles won to keep our 4-team moneyline parlay a victory, and the Chiefs won another game by 1-13 points for the 12th time this year. But the Titans and Cowboys didn’t deliver, and Justin Jefferson sold our Kirk Cousins Revenge Game parlay.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Ravens at Giants: Running to Glory with NFL Picks

Lamar Jackson has hinted at more running the rest of the season, but I’m not sure how much he’ll have to risk his legs against the Giants in a game where the spread is 16.5, the largest this season. But I’m not touching that line and am instead going to focus on the team total for the Ravens (O/U 29.5 points).

The Ravens have reached 30 points in 7-of-13 games this season, including three road trips. The Giants have only allowed 30 points once all season, and that was in the first game after Daniel Jones was released and they were blasted 30-7 by Tampa Bay.

But the Giants haven’t seen an offense like this with Jackson and Derrick Henry, a nightmare duo to face fresh off a bye week with more running in mind. The Giants are 29th in rushing yards and 30th in yards per carry against.

I like the Ravens to reach 30 points in this one and we’ll see if that’s enough to cover the spread or not. Maybe Justin Tucker will feel compelled to make all of his kicks this week to save his job and make sure the Ravens don’t leave any easy points off the scoreboard.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Ravens Over 29.5 Points (-108 at FanDuel)

2. Packers at Seahawks: Trust in Jordan Love

Sunday night could be a good one with the Packers in Seattle. Green Bay (-2.5) is a slight road favorite, and that makes sense since the Packers are the better team this year.

They lost a tough one in Detroit, but that’s against the top seed right now. They should find that the Seattle defense is very opponent dependent this year, roughing up the likes of the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa and Bo Nix in his NFL debut while getting destroyed by good offenses like Detroit and Buffalo.

That’s why I like Jordan Love to throw multiple touchdowns in this game, something he did in five straight games to begin this season, and he recently did it against the Dolphins and 49ers before only throwing one scoring toss in Detroit. But the Lions forced the Packers into a very slow start in that game.

Look for Green Bay to start stronger in Seattle, get the job done on the road, and Love will continue his strong play in the second half.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-104 at FanDuel)

Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers — (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

3. Dolphins at Texans: The Quirky Receiver Stat vs. Houston

The Houston defense is a tough one to figure out this year. They have great pressure stats, they’re currently No. 1 in yards per drive allowed, but you can throw touchdowns on this defense as they’ve allowed 26 touchdown passes already.

But the stat I love is that Houston has allowed 30 different receivers to hit 40 receiving yards in a game this season, and 21 of those 30 players scored at least one touchdown in the game too.

Of the 18 players to reach 59 receiving yards, 15 of them scored a touchdown too, which is good news for Tyreek Hill, who has a receiving line of 71.5 yards in this game. The Dolphins (6-7) cannot afford any more losses as they make their final playoff push, and they should have to score a decent number of points in Houston while throwing the ball frequently with Tua Tagovailoa playing very well.

Hill has scored a touchdown in 4-of-5 games in the last month. Look for him to add at least another against a defense that has little answers to stop receivers from scoring on them this season.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135 at FanDuel)

4. Chiefs at Browns: Believe in Jameis

The Chiefs have won 15 consecutive one-score games while Jameis Winston is always fun to watch as you don’t know if he’ll throw a touchdown or interception on any given drive. Maybe even an interception for a touchdown. This game could be a lot of fun with the shaky Chiefs a 4.5-point road favorite.

But the Chiefs cannot get takeaways on defense as they have just 10 all year, and San Francisco was the only game where they forced multiple turnovers. So, this could be a game where Jameis doesn’t throw a pick parade.

More than that, the Chiefs are giving up a lot of big plays in the passing game on defense ever since corner Jaylen Watson went down with a season-ending injury. The Chiefs were playing the Chargers without their only reliable wideout (Ladd McConkey) last week, and Justin Herbert still threw for 210 yards to the likes of Josh Palmer, Quentin Johnston, and Stone Smartt.

Aidan O’Connell lit them up for 340 yards on Black Friday, and Bryce Young threw for 263 yards against the Chiefs in Carolina.

Winston’s passing line of 237.5 feels very doable for him in this game as does 300 yards for that matter. Winston has thrown for over 237.5 yards in 3-of-6 starts this year, but he was way over (334 or higher) in the three games he hit the line, and the teams who held him below it were the Steelers twice and the Chargers (No. 1 scoring defense).

Right now, the Chiefs are just not playing sound defense, and Winston should find his wideouts open for some big plays in this one. Plus, if the Chiefs decide to perk up on offense and make this a shootout, Winston should have no problem racking up big passing yardage.

But at the end of the day, we’re still going to trust the Chiefs to find a way to win as they are in pursuit of the No. 1 seed and can’t really afford to lose ground to Buffalo with tougher games coming up. Patrick Mahomes has also lost just twice in his career to a team that finished the season with fewer than 8 wins, which the Browns (3-10) will do this year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jameis Winston Over 237.5 Passing Yards & Chiefs ML (+187 at FanDuel)

5. The Rookie Quarterback Moneyline Parlay

We hit our 4-team moneyline parlay last week, so let’s give it another shot with the theme being rookie quarterbacks in action. We’re going to back the two vying for Offensive Rookie of the Year to win and pick the other two to see their teams lose this week.

Commanders (-7.5) at Saints: Maybe the spread is a little high for a road favorite, but the Saints are starting inexperienced quarterback Jake Haener now that Derek Carr is out for the year with a fractured hand. That’s always a wild card, but the Commanders shouldn’t get shredded by someone like that. Meanwhile, Jayden Daniels’ ribs should feel better after the bye week, and he was in top form against the Titans last we saw him. The Commanders should roll to victory here.

Broncos (-3.5) vs. Colts: Huge game for Denver’s playoff push at home after a bye. The Colts have squeezed out 1-point wins against the Jets and Patriots, but they’re still a losing team on the season, and Anthony Richardson could really struggle with this pass defense. The Colts are a mediocre defense at best, and Bo Nix is playing well right now. I trust the Broncos to get the win here.

Cardinals (-6.5) vs. Patriots: It’s been an ugly 3-game losing streak out of the bye for the Cardinals, but they are a touchdown favorite at home against the Patriots, who struggle in pass defense and will be outmatched by Kyler Murray’s weapons. Arizona will feel good not playing Seattle this week, a team that owns them. The Patriots are still just 3-10 on the season and usually turn the ball over every week with rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Look for Arizona to end its losing streak.

Vikings (-7) vs. Bears: Part of Monday night’s doubleheader, rookie quarterback Caleb Williams had an impressive comeback last time against the Vikings to force overtime. But this game will be on the road, his offensive line still stinks, he takes too many sacks, and Sam Darnold is quietly playing great football right now. Give me the Vikings to improve to 12-2 and keep the pressure on Detroit.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Commanders ML & Broncos ML & Vikings ML & Cardinals ML (+237 at FanDuel)

6. Steelers at Eagles: Feed A.J. Brown

When the Steelers and Eagles last met in 2022, Jalen Hurts threw for 285 yards and 4 touchdowns, and the connection with A.J. Brown was electric as he had 156 yards and 3 touchdowns in that game, a 35-13 blowout win.

Things shouldn’t look that good this Sunday, but fans are wondering where the passing game has gone as Hurts hasn’t cracked 120 yards in the last two games as they’ve tried to get Saquon Barkley to 2,000 rushing yards. It almost cost them in an upset against the Panthers last week, and after the game, Brown said bluntly that “passing” is what the offense needs to improve.

Well, the Steelers are a solid defense, but some veteran quarterbacks have shown you can pick them apart this year. The Eagles also have a strong offensive line to protect Hurts, and Brown is pretty much matchup proof and should be extra motivated this week.

The Steelers are unlikely to have George Pickens due to a hamstring injury. They survived the Browns last week without him, but the Eagles are a different beast with more talent on both sides of the ball. This could be a game where the Steelers really struggle without Pickens on the road as a 5.5-point underdog.

The Steelers have a division title they can win in Baltimore in Week 16, so they know this NFC game isn’t the most important on the upcoming schedule. I think the Eagles pass more this week, Hurts goes over his passing line (194.5 yards), Brown gets at least 5 receptions, and Philadelphia wins the game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jalen Hurts Over 194.5 Passing Yards & A.J. Brown 5+ Receptions & Eagles ML (+206)

7. Bills at Lions: Shootout SGP

Finally, we have a 6-leg Same Game Parlay for the most anticipated game of the week, a potential Super Bowl preview between the Bills and Lions. Detroit is a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 54.5 points, so while it may not end 44-42, it will hopefully be pleasing to watch unlike Rams-49ers last night.

Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer – He’s got an MVP campaign and this is the last huge game for him to showcase his resume, so adding as many of those QB sneak touchdowns as possible will help him out there. He had three of them last week, and we know he can score from further out too. I think Allen gets in the end zone himself again this week.

David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Big-time players make big plays in big games. David Montgomery didn’t score against Green Bay in the first matchup this year, but he made sure he scored last week. He’s scored in all but three games this year, and we know the Bills just gave up 44 points in LA. Look for Detroit to give the ball to its best runner at the goal line for at least one score here.

Josh Allen 225+ Passing Yards – Allen has gone over this line in 8-of-13 games this season. He’ll be indoors again like last week when he threw for a season-high 342 yards against the Rams. We know the Lions can score a lot at home, and the Bills usually put the ball in Allen’s hands a lot in matchups like this. He threw for 253 yards in his last trip to Detroit in 2022, a 28-25 win on Thanksgiving. He should hit at least 225 here too.

Jared Goff 250+ Passing Yards – The Lions trust Goff, who threw for 283 yards last week against the Packers. We know the Bills can score points, so this is a game where the Lions may need to score 30-to-40 points to win the game. That’s going to take a good share of passing, and the Lions should feel confident after watching Matthew Stafford and his stud receivers take it to this defense last week. Let’s go with at least 250 yards for Goff.

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 66.5 Receiving Yards – It was impressive that Goff was able to throw for 283 yards last week with St. Brown only accounting for 43 yards, his fourth-lowest game in 2024. But in another big game, St. Brown is someone Goff will rely heavily on, and he can also copy some of the success the Rams had last week with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

Jameson Williams Over 3.5 Receptions – He’s had at least 5 catches in each of the last three games and is usually a big playmaker at home for this offense as the No. 2 wide receiver. Again, not to sound like a broken record, but huge games for Kupp and Nacua last week against this defense should have offensive coordinator Ben Johnson cooking up things for his best receivers in this one.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer & David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Josh Allen 225+ Passing Yards & Jared Goff 250+ Passing Yards & Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 66.5 Receiving Yards & Jameson Williams Over 3.5 Receptions (+1699 at FanDuel)

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