NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14

Scott Kacsmar06/12/2024 - 02:56 pm

The NFL may have already had its Game of the Week in Week 14 with the Detroit Lions (12-1) outlasting the Packers 34-31 to win their franchise-record 11th-straight game. But we still found some NFL picks for interesting matchups this week, including Panthers-Eagles, Browns-Steelers, and Chargers-Chiefs.

In recapping our Week 13 picks, the Bills made short work of the 49ers, and the Buccaneers delivered (+290) our 2-leg parlay. But the Ravens-Eagles game went a way different direction than planned, and the heartbreak of the week was George Pickens going over in yards, scoring a touchdown, but coming up one reception short of hitting our +258 parlay.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Panthers at Eagles: Saquon’s Chase of History

Saquon Barkley is high in the MVP odds, he’s leading the NFL in rushing with 1,499 yards, and a 2,000-yard season is well within reach, if not the NFL’s single-season record set by Eric Dickerson in 1984.

What could possibly go wrong against a Carolina team that is a two-touchdown underdog and is the only run defense to allow 2,000 yards this season? Yeah, that probably means an incoming “21 carries for 58 yards” stinker as Jalen Hurts throws for 300 yards. That’s the NFL.

But I’m going to trust the matchups and believe that this offensive line is now on a mission to get Saquon as many yards as possible for this record and maybe the MVP award. He’s already rushed for 255, 176, 159, 147, and 146 yards in his five highest games this season.

The Panthers just gave up a season-high 238 rushing yards to Tampa Bay with rookie Bucky Irving going for 152 yards last week. Barkley’s line is 110.5 rushing yards in this game, which is an easy over to take. But we’re willing to play it up to 150+ yards (+300 at FanDuel), and we’re going to settle in here with 125+ rushing yards for Saquon.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Saquon Barkley 125+ Rushing Yards (+135 at FanDuel)

2. The Keystone and Sunshine State Moneyline Picks Parlay

These almost never go right because of one leg, but let’s give it a try again. We have a 4-leg moneyline parlay with the home teams in Pennsylvania (Steelers and Eagles) and Florida (Buccaneers and Dolphins) to all win this week.

Steelers (-6.5) vs. Browns: I know the Browns beat the Steelers in the snow a couple of weeks ago, but Cleveland hasn’t swept Pittsburgh since 1988. Cleveland also hasn’t won in the regular season in Pittsburgh since 2003, but the Browns did win that 2020 AFC wild card game.

However, the defense has not been great for the Browns while it sure looked like Russell Wilson is getting more comfortable in this offense after dropping 44 points in Cincinnati. Let’s trust the Steelers to get a bigger game out of T.J. Watt, who was very quiet in Cleveland while Myles Garrett shined, and for Wilson to get rid of the ball faster this time in a win. Remember, he threw it very well in the snow. The protection was just shoddy in the first half.

Eagles (-13.5) vs. Panthers: It may be too big of a spread with how much better Carolina has been playing in the last month, especially Bryce Young. But the Eagles are on a roll with eight straight wins, they took down the Ravens (NFC killers) in Baltimore last week, and they have a rushing record and possible MVP to chase for Saquon Barkley against a poor defense. I’d be shocked if this upset, the biggest of 2024, happened.

Buccaneers (-6.5) vs. Raiders: Yes, Tampa Bay almost blew it in Carolina last week, but that’s a road game against a division rival, so those are usually tougher than they should be on paper. Unfamiliar opponents here, but while the Raiders looked solid with Aidan O’Connell back in Kansas City last week, I’m still going to trust Baker Mayfield with his talented weapons at home to deliver another loss to the 2-10 Raiders, who can’t close in tight games under coach Antonio Pierce.

Dolphins (-5.5) vs. Jets: Miami may lose every single time against good teams on the road, but it is 7-1 against the Jets since drafting Tua Tagovailoa in 2020. Tua is 4-0 as a starter against the Jets, who have blown four leads in the fourth quarter already this season. Tagovailoa is outplaying Aaron Rodgers right now, the Jets are just 3-9, and I would expect Miami to bounce back from the Thanksgiving loss in Green Bay with a solid showing at home here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Steelers ML & Eagles ML & Buccaneers ML & Dolphins ML (+176 at FanDuel)

3. Chargers at Chiefs: The Best NFL Bet All Season?

Do you know what is arguably the best bet in the 2024 NFL season? If you bet on “Chiefs win by 1-13 points” every week, you’d be 11-1 just like the Chiefs. All of their wins have been by 1-13 points with only a loss in Buffalo to show for a loss.

This team can’t hold a big lead right now because of the defense, which couldn’t stay far ahead of the Panthers and Raiders in the last two weeks despite leads of 14 and 13 points. But the Chiefs are still pulling these games out because Patrick Mahomes has already led six game-winning drives this season.

However, you can argue the Chiefs are playing with fire with the way the defense has gone downhill and the poor pass protection that’s led to 10 sacks of Mahomes over the last two games. The good news is they are likely to replace awful left tackle Wanya Morris with veteran D.J. Humphries, who is apparently ready to make his team debut. It’s hard to play worse than Morris did last week against the Raiders, so that should be helpful to Mahomes. It would also be nice if Andy Reid used Isiah Pacheco more on the ground in his second game back.

The Chargers don’t allow a lot of points under Jim Harbaugh this year, but they also don’t score nearly as many as they used to with Justin Herbert, who threw for almost all of his 147 yards last week to rookie Ladd McConkey, who was reportedly banged up this week. The Chiefs should put corner Trent McDuffie on him since the other receivers are not reliable at all for Herbert, who already lost a 17-10 game to these Chiefs in Week 4.

It’s the Chiefs, so you naturally expect a close game at the end. But with only McConkey as a good receiver and no J.K. Dobbins available for the running game, it shouldn’t be a high-scoring game or an upset win for the Chargers as the Chiefs look to clinch another AFC West title.

Let’s do it again. Chiefs win by 1-13 points.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Kansas City Chiefs by 1-13 Points (+120 at FanDuel)

4. Falcons at Vikings: Kirk Cousins Revenge Game Starts Hot

This isn’t so much a Kirk Cousins Revenge Game as he needs to play well before he ends up getting benched for rookie Michael Penix Jr. This 3-game losing streak has been brutal, and it’s not like they’re in great shape to win as a 5.5-point underdog against 10-2 Minnesota here.

But here’s a 3-leg parlay that assumes a productive first quarter for Cousins, his top receiver Drake London, and the great Justin Jefferson:

Kirk Cousins 40+ 1st Quarter Passing Yards
Drake London 10+ 1st Quarter Receiving Yards
Justin Jefferson 10+ 1st Quarter Receiving Yards

Even before throwing four interceptions against the Chargers last week, Cousins still passed for over 50 yards in that opening quarter. We’ll be modest and give him 40 here as you can certainly move the ball on that Minnesota defense. Finishing drives for touchdowns is a different story.

But we also like Drake London to make a big catch or two to get into double figures early. He’s been fairly consistent at that this year. Then there’s the master of consistency with yardage this year in Justin Jefferson. He didn’t end his touchdown drought for us last week, but he should rack up yards against a defense that couldn’t stop Ladd McConkey last week despite Justin Herbert not getting the ball anywhere else.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Kirk Cousins 40+ 1st Quarter Passing Yards & Drake London 10+ 1st Quarter Receiving Yards & Justin Jefferson 10+ 1st Quarter Receiving Yards (+188 at FanDuel)

5. Jaguars at Titans: Mayo (Passing) Clinic

When else are we going to feel comfortable in betting on noted mayonnaise lover Will Levis than a home game against the 2-10 Jaguars with Mac Jones starting for the injured Trevor Lawrence?

Levis played the Jaguars once so far as a rookie last year, and he was 13-of-17 for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns in that game. This year, Levis has thrown over 1.5 passing touchdowns in 4-of-8 games he finished, including the last two weeks. He has been hitting some deep balls to his receivers, and the Jacksonville pass defense has been terrible this year, allowing 24 touchdown passes (second most).

Throw in Mac Jones, one of the worst crunch time quarterbacks in NFL history, starting for the Jaguars, and I’m going to trust Levis to pull off the win as a 3.5-point home favorite with a few touchdown throws.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Will Levis Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Titans ML (+205 at FanDuel)

6. Bengals at Cowboys: Monday Night Upset Brewing?

It’s gotten to the point where the Dallas Cowboys (5-7) have a better record than the Cincinnati Bengals (4-8) going into this Monday night matchup between two of the most disappointing teams in the 2024 season.

But the Bengals are still a 5.5-point road favorite because people trust their offense to score and they don’t trust Cooper Rush, a backup quarterback. Well, back in 2022, a younger Rush was a 7-point home dog to these Bengals, and he threw for more yards than Joe Burrow, who took 6 sacks that day. Rush led a game-winning drive in a 20-17 upset win.

Dallas was playing better football then, but they at least have Micah Parsons back on defense, and he’s picked up a sack in 3-of-4 games in that time. I like for him to get at least a sack here against Burrow, who struggles with those elite edge rushers.

I also like Rush to throw for 200 yards, something he should have done in three straight games, but CeeDee Lamb had multiple drops in the Thanksgiving win over the Giants before checking himself out with an AC injury. He says he’ll be fine for Monday night. I almost want to bet on him to catch a touchdown against this poor Cincinnati defense, but let’s go on the side of caution with that one.

The third leg of our Monday night parlay is Dallas +10.5. I just don’t trust the Bengals to win this game convincingly, if it even wins at all. Mike McCarthy’s usually done some good work with his backup quarterbacks, the sun won’t be shining in players’ faces, and the Bengals may be resigned to the fact that they’re not going to the playoffs again this year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Cooper Rush 200+ Passing Yards & Micah Parsons Over 0.5 Sacks & Cowboys +10.5 (Odds TBD)

7. NFL Touchdown Scorer Parlay

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay for touchdown scorers this Sunday:

George Pickens vs. Browns: His coach told him he needs to grow up fast, he was caught fighting in the end zone on a Hail Mary in the last matchup, and he called out the Browns for not being a good team. George Pickens will be a wanted man this Sunday against Cleveland, but I think he finds the end zone for the second week in a row with Russell Wilson giving him a shot on a deep ball.

Alvin Kamara vs. Giants: With Taysom Hill out for the season, it should be a clear path to the end zone for Alvin Kamara against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL in the Giants. No more worries about Hill stealing his scores as Kamara’s yardage has been solid the last month. But he hasn’t scored since Week 6 against Tampa. It’s time to end the drought.

Saquon Barkley vs. Panthers: Already explained earlier why Barkley should have a huge yardage game against a terrible run defense. But with his home-run ability and MVP chase, he should find the end zone again too. Just don’t get stopped at the 1-yard line again, because we know what comes next in this offense.

Isaac Guerendo vs. Bears: What a shocking week in San Francisco as the 49ers placed running backs Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason on injured reserve. That paves the way for speedy rookie Isaac Guerendo, who has looked good in small doses this year. I think the 49ers will look much better at home this week in playing a weaker opponent than the Packers and Bills. Brock Purdy should feel better and lead this offense to the end zone with Guerendo scoring his third touchdown of the season.

Xavier Worthy vs. Chargers: It worked in Week 4 as Worthy caught a 54-yard touchdown to spark a comeback against the Chargers. He’s made just one other 20-yard catch since, but he has been close on several big plays with Patrick Mahomes. Maybe if the pass protection is improved this week, they’ll find a way to hook up again for a big play that results in a touchdown. Just asking for lightning to strike twice against the Chargers.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay – George Pickens & Alvin Kamara & Saquon Barkley & Isaac Guerendo & Xavier Worthy (+2815 at FanDuel)

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