NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13

Scott Kacsmar29/11/2024 - 02:23 pm

The NFL has already had a busy Week 13 with the Chicago Bears delivering one of the worst end-game sequences in NFL history in Detroit. But we have more NFL picks for the rest of the weekend’s slate, including a highly anticipated shootout between the Ravens and Eagles with their dual-threat quarterbacks and prolific running backs.

In recapping our Thanksgiving special picks, we nailed the top three picks thanks to Chicago holding Detroit under 30 points, the Packers continuing Miami’s road woes against good teams, and Malik Nabers and CeeDee Lamb both hit 10 yards in the first quarter. But the underwhelming Detroit offense sunk our parlays that otherwise look good, and we’ll see what happens Friday afternoon to our best Raiders-Chiefs picks.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. 49ers at Bills: Sunday Night Smashing?

The Buffalo Bills (9-2) went into their bye week as the talk of the NFL after ending Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak. Josh Allen is still the MVP favorite, and they’re favored by a touchdown over the 49ers this Sunday night in a game that’s lost a lot of its luster due to the injuries for the 49ers (5-6).

Frankly, it’s a hard game to predict when you don’t know if the 49ers are getting their star players back or not after Brock Purdy, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams all missed last week’s 38-10 rout in Green Bay, a reminder that Kyle Shanahan has really struggled to win games with quarterbacks not named Jimmy Garoppolo or Purdy in his career. Even with Christian McCaffrey back, the 49ers couldn’t run the ball effectively with Brandon Allen under center.

Purdy was reportedly “severely limited” in practice on Thursday and his status is up in the air. But the 49ers have been hard to trust with injuries this season after the McCaffrey debacle, and even Deebo Samuel’s pneumonia diagnosis was ridiculously covered after he left a game following a few snaps. It’s just been that kind of snakebitten year for the 49ers.

Meanwhile, the Bills should be getting healthier after the bye with weapons for Allen like Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman. Amari Cooper should also be healing and adjusting to his new team better.

The Bills are playing some great football right now, and they should have edges on both sides of the ball in this one. The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS after a bye week since 2020. Frankly, I’m not sure if it matters all that much if Purdy does play. The Bills just beat the Chiefs by two scores, something very few teams ever do to Patrick Mahomes.

Buffalo is great at winning by large margins, so I’m going to trust this team to deliver on Sunday night and cover the spread regardless of who ultimately suits up for San Francisco.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Bills -7 (-106 at BetRivers)

2. Chargers at Falcons: Justin Herbert Back to Being Superman

The Chargers got some bad news when J.K. Dobbins injured his knee again on Monday night against the Ravens. He will miss some time, and the Chargers’ running game disappeared after he left Monday’s contest.

This is going to put more on Justin Herbert’s plate as you can’t rely on the other backs on the roster. For the season, Dobbins was averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Backup Gus Edwards is slower and is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. The only other backs to receive at least 10 carries are Kimani Vidal (2.4 YPC) and Hassan Haskins (2.0 YPC), neither of which is even averaging 2.5 YPC for Herbert.

The Atlanta defense is worse against the pass than the run, and this could turn into a shootout with Kirk Cousins. That’s why we’re counting on Justin Herbert to throw a lot of passes, something he hasn’t had to do as much this season for coach Jim Harbaugh thanks to an improved running game. But that element should be missing in action as long as Dobbins is out.

Herbert has only exceeded 33.5 passing attempts in four games this year, but he’s healthy, he’s throwing the ball well, and his receivers owe him some plays after bad drops Monday night.

Maybe it’ll be déjà vu as Herbert is 2-0 against Atlanta in his career in games where he completed at least 30 passes on 43 or 44 attempts, and the Chargers won both games by a 20-17 final. The 2020 meeting was against an Atlanta team coached by Raheem Morris, the current coach of the Falcons.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Justin Herbert Over 33.5 Pass Attempts (+106 at FanDuel)

3. Cardinals at Vikings: Justin Jefferson Ends the Drought

The Vikings (9-2) are having an unexpectedly great season with Sam Darnold at quarterback. His connection with Justin Jefferson is still strong, but the two only hooked up once in regulation for a 7-yard gain last week. They finally made a 20-yard play in overtime, but it was one of the least productive games of Jefferson’s career.

Jefferson has also gone five games without a touchdown despite 408 receiving yards during this stretch. That ties the longest touchdown drought of his career. Let’s bet on that to end this week at home against Arizona.

The Cardinals do not give up a lot of touchdowns through the air, but the interesting thing about their defense, which lacks star power, is that it has only allowed one offense (Packers) to have any passing touchdowns longer than 12 yards this season. Jordan Love hit them on some big plays with 44 yards to Christian Watson and 20 yards to Romeo Doubs in Week 6. Everything else has been 12 yards and shorter.

But that doesn’t mean a WR1 can’t score from shorter than that against these Cardinals, who have already allowed touchdowns to Amon-Ra St. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Khalil Shakir, and Jayden Reed this season.

While it’s not like Jefferson is going to catch another 97-yard touchdown this season, he has scores of 3 and 6 yards from Darnold this year. Let’s trust him to end his scoring drought and find the end zone at home this week in a big game with Arizona.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Justin Jefferson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-110 at FanDuel)

4. Eagles at Ravens: Running Back Duel

We’re not overthinking the big showdown in Baltimore this week. We have a tougher parlay for it below, but for a top pick this week, we’re going with Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley to both score touchdowns in this game.

They’re in a strong competition for the Offensive Player of the Year award, and after rushing for 255 yards last week, Saquon Barkley has entered the MVP debate. I could see that motivating Henry a lot since he hasn’t received that kind of love for his stellar season in helping Baltimore reach new highs on offense.

Henry also didn’t score a touchdown for the first time all season last week in Los Angeles as Lamar Jackson took one from him on a QB run, and Justice Hill had a long scoring run in the second half. Look for Henry to start a new streak as the Ravens should find the end zone multiple times in this one.

Barkley is the trickier one with touchdowns since he really needs to score from some distance since you know they’ll just go Jalen Hurts on the Tush Push from the 1 or 2-yard line. But Barkley has still found a way to score 12 touchdowns in 11 games this week, and he has that home-run ability.

The Ravens are tough against the run, but they also haven’t faced an offensive line and running back combo on par with the Eagles and Barkley this year. I think he’ll embrace the big game atmosphere of this one and also find the end zone for the Eagles. But I also wouldn’t fault anyone who wants to slip in Jalen Hurts for Barkley in this one. All three players could very well end up scoring.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+152 at FanDuel)

Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings — (Photo by Ryan Kang/Getty Images)

5. Steelers at Bengals: In Russ We Trust Our NFL Picks

The Steelers are a 2.5-point underdog in Cincinnati after already losing in Cleveland last week. But Russell Wilson threw the ball well in the snow, and he’ll have better conditions this week, a worse defense to face, and the Steelers have moved the ball very well against Cincinnati in recent years.

We have a 3-leg parlay for Russell Wilson and his top receivers to have a productive day:

Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
George Pickens 4+ Receptions
Pat Freiermuth 2+ Receptions

Wilson only has one touchdown pass over his last two games, but he’s already had games where he threw multiple touchdowns against the Commanders and Giants this year. The Bengals have already allowed 19 passing touchdowns this year, and that includes six scoring tosses of 25-plus yards. We know the deep ball is still a real strength for Wilson.

He also has George Pickens at his disposal, and Pickens usually responds well to criticism after tough games like the Cleveland loss where he was caught sparring with the Browns on the Hail Mary at the end. Pickens has caught at least 4 balls in every start with Wilson this season and should be the main target again in Cincinnati as he tries to do his best Ja’Marr Chase impersonation.

Tight end Pat Freiermuth has caught at least 2 balls in every game this season, and some of his best career games have been against Cincinnati’s defense.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Russell Wilson Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & George Pickens 4+ Receptions & Pat Freiermuth 2+ Receptions (+258 at FanDuel)

6. Buccaneers at Panthers: Baker’s Guys

Mike Evans returned to Tampa Bay’s offense last week, and it had an immediate boost on Baker Mayfield’s passing as he completed 24-of-30 passes for 294 yards in a 30-7 win over the Giants. But one thing Mayfield didn’t do was throw a touchdown as the Bucs had four different players score a rushing touchdown, including Mayfield on a scramble.

We have a 2-leg parlay for how the Bucs should attack a poor Carolina defense in the first matchup between these teams this season:

Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer: He has scored in 5-of-7 meetings with Carolina since 2020, including once in the first matchup in 2023 with Mayfield as his quarterback.
Bucky Irving Over 56.5 Rushing Yards: The Panthers aren’t good against the run either, and Bucky Irving has been hot with 88 yards against the Giants and 73 yards against the 49ers in the last two weeks.

The only reason I don’t want to do an Irving touchdown too is that you never know when Rachaad White will steal one from him, or Baker himself can do it too in this offense. But I do like the prospects of Evans getting back to the end zone and Irving becoming the latest back to rush for good yardage against Carolina. Plus, if the Panthers are still playing better offense, that should only motivate Tampa more to score and play well on that side of the ball.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Bucky Irving Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (+290 at BetMGM)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Wide Receiver Mike Evans — (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

7. Eagles at Ravens: Super Parlay

Finally, we have a 7-leg parlay for the big Eagles-Ravens game this Sunday afternoon that doesn’t center around the two-star running backs. The Ravens are a 3-point home favorite with a total of 50.5 points:

Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer
A.J. Brown 80+ Receiving Yards
Saquon Barkley 2+ Receptions
Mark Andrews 2+ Receptions
Lamar Jackson Over 222.5 Passing Yards
Ravens Over 26.5 Points
Ravens ML

Philadelphia has struggled to score early in games this year, so it’s important to have a good start and not get behind big. But my gut says the Ravens do a more respectable job against Saquon Barkley’s rushing than these other teams, so it will be Barkley getting a few receptions in the passing game to try to get him the ball in space instead of those wide-open runs he had against the Rams for 70-plus yards.

Baltimore’s defense is not what it used to be, but Ja’Marr Chase literally has all four touchdowns of 40-plus yards against the Ravens this year. Baltimore has allowed 7 touchdowns from the 1-yard line, and I think Jalen Hurts adds to that with another in this matchup.

Hurts will also need to get A.J. Brown heavily involved, especially if DeVonta Smith is still out as it looks like he may be. Brown has played at a high level this year, surpassing 80 yards in 6-of-8 games played. There are big plays to be had against these Ravens, and I expect another stellar performance from Brown in this one to keep up with Baltimore’s scoring.

The Eagles have been playing good defense under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. However, he’s 0-2 against Jackson, who has thrown for over 300 yards in both games against him. The last time Jackson faced a Fangio-coached defense was Miami last year. He threw for 321 yards and 5 touchdown passes in a 56-19 rout.

After a low-key passing game on Monday night, look for Jackson to continue his dominance of the NFC (he’s 23-1) and hit his passing over while connecting with tight end Mark Andrews a few times. The Eagles do their best damage against wide receivers, but the Ravens are loaded at tight end and running back too in the passing game this year. They can attack you from a variety of angles.

In the end, I like the Ravens to score over 26.5 points and get the win. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog against a team that makes the playoffs. His only win last year was in Kansas City on a Monday night, the game famous for Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropping a go-ahead touchdown bomb. But in the five losses, Sirianni’s Eagles have always allowed over 30 points in such big matchups.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer & A.J. Brown 80+ Receiving Yards & Saquon Barkley 2+ Receptions & Mark Andrews 2+ Receptions & Lamar Jackson Over 222.5 Passing Yards & Ravens Over 26.5 Points & Ravens ML (+1557 at FanDuel)

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