NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12

Scott Kacsmar22/11/2024 - 11:59 am

The NFL does not boast as many high-profile games in Week 12, but as Thursday night showed in Cleveland, you can never discount an upset, especially in a division game. We still have NFL picks for interesting games like Chiefs-Panthers, Cowboys-Commanders, Eagles-Rams, and the best game is Monday night with Ravens-Chargers.

In recapping our Week 11 NFL picks, happy to say Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes both threw interceptions to hit our parlay, and the Jaguars were destroyed 52-6 in Detroit. It would have been an incredible week if George Pickens could have scored (Zay Flowers did) a touchdown, and of course, the Bengals scored just too many points to sink our otherwise perfect parlay for SNF. Definitely bummed out that the 49ers blew the moneyline parlay (again) by giving up a late lead to the Seahawks.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, money lines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the money line of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick-off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Chiefs at Panthers: Unless It’s the Upset of the Year…

Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak is over, meaning they enter this game after a loss while the Panthers are on a 2-game winning streak with 20 points scored in consecutive games for the first time in the Bryce Young era. The Panthers had their bye week to prepare for this one.

But the Chiefs might be in a panic if they can’t beat Carolina on the road as a 10.5-point favorite. That number is still agonizingly high for a team that can’t seem to avoid a one-score game whether it’s legitimately close, a backdoor cover, or just another game where they can’t truly just blow a team out even if the team is as flawed as the Panthers.

However, the Chiefs don’t get many possessions in their games, they don’t get many turnovers on defense, and the Panthers have found some success with running Chuba Hubbard on the ground in recent weeks. That could shrink the game and limit the Chiefs again on the scoreboard.

Plus, don’t look now but the Chiefs have played some of their worst games on defense in recent weeks. They won’t be giving up 30 points in Carolina, but it’s not that unreasonable to think this game could end 24-14 or something like that.

With that said, I’m going to parlay a Kansas City win but still take Panthers +14.5. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS as a road favorite of double digits in the Mahomes era. As a road favorite of even just 5 points, the Chiefs have won just 1-of-12 games by more than 14 points since 2022.

I’d also consider pairing a Hubbard touchdown with a Kansas City win (+184 at FanDuel) for some negative correlation.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chiefs ML & Panthers +14.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

2. Titans at Texans: Trusting Houston to Reach a Winning Streak

The Texans blasted the Cowboys on Monday night, so let’s go with a little 3-leg parlay to get them on a winning streak against the Titans:

Texans ML
Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Nico Collins 50+ Receiving Yards

Nico Collins returned to the lineup Monday night and should have had a long touchdown on the opening drive if the Texans didn’t have a penalty. But he should be able to clear 50 yards as the main threat in this offense again.

Maybe we should say main receiving threat, because Joe Mixon has been excellent on the ground for Houston this year. He scored three touchdowns on Monday night and has scored in most games this season. The Titans are stingy with yards, but you can score on this team, and don’t discount the Texans racking up sacks against Will Levis, who might set up short fields for C.J. Stroud with turnovers under pressure.

I really like the Texans to take care of business here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Texans ML & Joe Mixon Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Nico Collins 50+ Receiving Yards (+117 at FanDuel)

3. Buccaneers at Giants: The Goodfella Returns to Our NFL Picks

The benching of Daniel Jones for the Giants means the return of the legend himself, Tommy DeVito. Coach Brian Daboll wasn’t getting enough from Jones, but the timing is a little odd in that it was announced after the bye this week.

But DeVito is the guy again, and as an undrafted rookie last year, he had a couple of impressive games even if he took entirely far too many sacks. But he was more productive than Jones was, and he threw a touchdown pass in 5-of-6 games where he attempted at least 20 passes.

I think Daboll makes this move with some instant satisfaction from a good first quarter at home against a Tampa Bay defense that gives up a lot of passing yardage. That’s why I have a 2-leg parlay where DeVito will throw for at least one touchdown pass in the game, and he’ll go over 31.5 passing yards in the first quarter.

DeVito has some experience in starting a game after a bye week as he did it last year for the Giants. Let’s hope lightning strikes twice and he does well in this game too. But if you wanted to swap out his passing over in the first quarter for Malik Nabers having 10 early yards or breaking 50 receiving yards for the game, I understand that notion too.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Tommy DeVito 1+ Passing Touchdown & Tommy DeVito Over 31.5 First Quarter Passing Yards (+157 at FanDuel)

4. Patriots at Dolphins: Tua vs. Maye Chapter I

This is a rematch from Week 5 when the Dolphins won 15-10 in New England. But this will be the first time this rivalry has Tua Tagovailoa and Drake Maye at quarterback for these AFC East teams. We have a 5-leg parlay built around them in the passing game:

Drake Maye 175+ Passing Yards
Drake Maye 1+ Passing Touchdown
Jonnu Smith 3+ Receptions
Jaylen Waddle 2+ Receptions
Dolphins ML

Both offenses should move the ball better through the air this time with their rightful quarterbacks in the game. Drake Maye has thrown for at least 184 yards and 1 touchdown pass in all five game he’s started and finished this year. Remember, he had that game against the Jets where he was injured early and left. But every time he’s finished, he’s put up those bare minimum numbers as a passer, and he should do it again here, assuming the Dolphins are going to score some points to make this a passing game for New England.

On the other side, Jonnu Smith has really emerged as a dominant tight end for this team. He had 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week. He’s had at least 3 catches in the six games, a streak that started with his game in New England when he had 5 catches for 62 yards.

Jaylen Waddle hasn’t been a big part of the offense this year, but he had 4 catches in Week 5, so let’s give him at least half of that here as the Patriots have been poor at covering wide receivers this season.

Finally, let’s go with the Dolphins to win as Tua Tagovailoa is 6-0 as a starter against the Patriots in his career. He hasn’t played lights out against them in most games, but he always gets the job done and doesn’t shoot Miami in the foot. Let’s get that record to 7-0, another reason why the Patriots have collapsed in the AFC East after owning it for two decades.

The Bills (Josh Allen) and Dolphins simply got better and found better quarterbacks.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Drake Maye 175+ Passing Yards & Drake Maye 1+ Passing Touchdown & Jonnu Smith 3+ Receptions & Jaylen Waddle 2+ Receptions & Dolphins ML (+202 at FanDuel)

5. Trustworthy Back Touchdown Parlay

We have a 3-leg parlay of anytime touchdown scorers in three different NFC games this Sunday:

David Montgomery (Lions) vs. Colts: The Lions are red hot on offense and Montgomery has been so reliable for them as the power in that backfield. Look for him to attack that weak run defense of the Colts.

James Conner (Cardinals) vs. Seahawks: Big NFC West game, but Conner has scored in 4-of-5 career games against Seattle, including 150 yards and a score in his last game against them in Week 18 last season. Look for Arizona to be solid out of the bye week and find the end zone with their most reliable scorer.

Brian Robinson Jr. (Commanders) vs. Cowboys: Did you see the Cowboys give up three touchdowns to Joe Mixon on Monday night? The defense has been poor all season, and the Washington offense had some extra days to rest after that bad loss in Philly. Look for Jayden Daniels to lead his offense into the red zone often at home in his first game against Dallas, and we’ll trust his lead back, Brian Robinson Jr., to get at least one touchdown here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer Parlay – David Montgomery & Brian Robinson Jr. & James Conner (+373 at FanDuel)

6. Eagles at Rams: SNF Parlay

Sunday night should have a lot of offensive stars on the field, but we’re going to focus on a 3-leg touchdown scorer parlay for one obvious play and a couple of smaller stars getting the job done for their teams in this NFC matchup:

Kyren Williams (Rams): The back had scored in nine straight games, but he has gone scoreless in the last three games and no rushing touchdowns in his last four with Matthew Stafford posting some big touchdown pass numbers in recent weeks. Let’s not forget the Rams also couldn’t get in the end zone once against the Dolphins at home two weeks ago. But we’ll trust Williams to start a new streak here and score one with the best odds of any player to do so (-195 at FanDuel). It’s a matchup issue as the Eagles are very good at not giving up passing touchdowns.

Dallas Goedert (Eagles): I’m not going to pretend this is very scientific reasoning, but I was playing a game on my phone and repeatedly had to watch an ad where Dallas Goedert was talking about his psoriasis. So, for that time wasted, he better come through and score. He also scored a touchdown against the Rams last year as part of a 100-yard game, so let’s root for lightning to strike twice here as the Rams worry about defending A.J. Brown and Saquon Barkley.

Jalen Hurts (Eagles): This has become automatic lately where if the Eagles get to the 1-yard line, it’s Jalen Hurts on the Tush Push. He’s scored in 7-of-10 games this year and all three of his games with multiple touchdown runs have been on the road.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Dallas Goedert Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+1118 at FanDuel)

7. Ravens at Chargers: MNF Parlay

Finally, we have a 7-leg parlay with +4000 odds via DraftKings for Monday night in Los Angeles between the Chargers and Ravens, who played a 20-10 game last year when the Ravens pulled away late. But this is the Harbaugh Bowl with brothers Jim and John squaring off for the first time since Super Bowl 47. The Ravens are again a 3-point road favorite just like last year, but let’s cook up something a little different than what we saw from these teams last week:

Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions
Ladd McConkey 50+ Receiving Yards
J.K. Dobbins 50+ Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Ravens to Win from Behind – Yes
Ravens -2.5

Let’s walk through this game script. I think Justin Herbert will play well against this shaky pass defense for most of the game, and Ladd McConkey will again be a main target as he ended up throwing 16 passes to Keenan Allen in this matchup last year. McConkey will get open in that secondary for 50-plus yards.

This is also a revenge game for J.K. Dobbins, who will want to shine against the Ravens where he was severely injured multiple times, leading to them moving on and going with Derrick Henry. Then we have a Henry touchdown, because he’s been so automatic there, scoring every game.

But we also have a Mark Andrews touchdown as the Chargers are the only defense that has yet to give up a touchdown pass to a tight end in 2024. That streak will end this game, and the only concern is if it goes to Andrews or Isaiah Likely. But we’ll go with Andrews here as he is more of a safety blanket for Lamar Jackson, who will bounce back well on Monday night as the Chargers are not one of his kryptonite teams (Steelers and Chiefs). But you could always put a couple bucks on this with Likely instead of Andrews too as that’d be +6000 odds.

The Ravens will trail at some point in the game, but they’ll win by at least 2.5 points to cover and satisfy that leg with the comeback win. It should be a good one and let’s hope for a great finish Monday night before heading into Thanksgiving.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Interceptions & Ladd McConkey 50+ Receiving Yards & J.K. Dobbins 50+ Rushing Yards & Derrick Henry Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Ravens to Win from Behind & Ravens -2.5 (+4000 at DraftKings)

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