NFL

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 11

Scott Kacsmar15/11/2024 - 11:35 am

The NFL schedule has been building towards this epic Week 11 all season. We’ll see a pivotal game in the AFC North between the Ravens and Steelers, then it’s the latest showdown between the Chiefs and Bills for No. 1 seed implications, and Sunday night is huge for the wild card race with the Bengals taking on the Chargers. We have NFL picks for each game and more this week.

In recapping our Week 10 NFL picks, it was a tough week with little offense around the league. Fortunately, the Steelers and Commanders both reached 20 points, and Chuba Hubbard ran well in Germany. But the 49ers missed too many field goals to cover in Tampa, we needed just 6 more yards from Amon-Ra St. Brown to hit the Sunday night parlay, and no Rams player was worth betting on for a touchdown as they kicked six field goals. Finally, Calvin Ridley is forever on the banned list as he sunk our Chargers’ parlay with a touchdown in garbage time.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. Packers at Bears: Rent Is Due for Chicago

There is nothing Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur likes doing more than owning the Chicago Bears. Since 2019, LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears with every win by at least 7 points. He’s never crushed them by 20, but right now, you don’t need to score more than 20 points to beat Chicago.

The Packers had their bye week, which will hopefully lead to a better Jordan Love after he was dealing with a groin injury in the rain the last time we saw him. But he’s unlikely to collapse out of the bye the way the Bears have offensively as they’ve scored just 27 points in three losses since their bye. They fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, but they have issues up front with a rookie quarterback (Caleb Williams) not trusting what he’s seeing right now. He’s also struggling to throw the ball accurately, and the Packers have feasted on turnovers defensively this season.

I like the Packers (-5.5) to come out of their bye with an impressive win. If you don’t want to trust the spread because of how this season has gone with favorites in this range, you could take a 2-leg parlay for better than even odds with the Packers to win and Love to throw multiple touchdowns. He had five touchdowns against this defense last year.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Packers -5.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

2. Jaguars at Lions: Detroit Blowout City?

You know we’re living in bizarre times when the Detroit Lions have the two largest point spreads of the season. They were an 11.5-point favorite against the Titans and won that game 52-14 after a ton of takeaways and big returns on special teams.

We might be in store for a repeat the way Jacksonville plays defense and the way Mac Jones turns the ball over with such frequency. He’ll be starting again for Trevor Lawrence, but this shouldn’t be much of a contest. Jared Goff will look to atone for throwing five picks in Houston, and he still won that game with 26 points.

I actually debated between going with the spread and the team total as the Lions should get over 30.5 points at home, only their second home game since October started if you can believe that.

But they could win this game 27-10 and cover the spread, because Jones already lost 12-7 to Minnesota last week in a game where Sam Darnold gave him three picks. Goff will play better and put up a healthy total here.

This has been a strange season as teams favored by 6-to-9 points are 10-27-3 ATS, meaning they’ve only covered (no push) 25% of the time, which is abysmal. Even their straight-up record is just 24-16.

But for teams favored by 9.5 and higher, they are 6-2 ATS and 8-0 SU this season, so that’s reassuring. Let’s count on the Lions to deliver a blowout win against a bad team starting a truly terrible backup quarterback.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Lions -13.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

3. Moneyline Parlay (Dolphins, 49ers, Texans)

Next, we have a 3-leg parlay of moneyline winners for teams favored by a touchdown this week:

Dolphins (-7) vs. Raiders

These teams met around this team a year ago and the Dolphins won 20-13 at home in a low-scoring game. But that’s the issue for the Raiders as they just don’t have good quarterback play to score points, and they traded Davante Adams to the Jets. They basically have to try winning 16-13 games and the defense just isn’t good enough to do that for Antonio Pierce.

Tua Tagovailoa of the Miami Dolphins — (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Tua Tagovailoa has mostly played well since returning, and his defense stepped up against a healthy version of the Rams on Monday night. I think they can rough up Gardner Minshew in this one and start stacking wins again.

49ers (-6.5) vs. Seahawks

The 49ers are 6-0 against the Seahawks since Geno Smith became their starter in 2022. They have usually done a great job of limiting the points he scores, forcing mistakes, and they have a good read on scoring against their division rival. Add in the return of Christian McCaffrey and rookie Ricky Pearsall catching his first touchdown last week, and the 49ers should finally be ready to start stacking wins here. This will be to complete the sweep after they won 36-24 in Seattle in Week 6.

Texans (-7.5) at Cowboys

I don’t know if I can trust Houston with a spread like this on the road right now, but they should be able to get back in the win column against the pathetic Cowboys, who lost 34-6 last week to the Eagles in their first game this season without Dak Prescott. They say they’re going to start Cooper Rush again, who set an NFL record by throwing for the fewest yards (45) in a game with at least 13 completions in NFL history.

Good luck against that Houston defense that has had some bright moments in picking off Jared Goff five times last week, holding Josh Allen to 9-of-30 passing, and they forced Aaron Rodgers into one of the least effective halves of his career before they folded after halftime.

But the Cowboys just look so fundamentally flawed on both sides of the ball right now that it’s hard to imagine Houston loses a third game in a row to this team. Plus, wide receiver Nico Collins should be back after he was close to a return last week.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Dolphins ML & 49ers ML & Texans ML (+121 at FanDuel)

4. Chiefs at Bills: Interceptions for the Best Quarterbacks in the NFL

The rivalry continues in Buffalo in a huge game, but you might be surprised to know that we have a 2-leg parlay where Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen will each throw at least one interception in this important showdown.

Mahomes has not been picked in his last two games, ending an 8-game streak going back to the Super Bowl where he threw at least one. His interception rate has come down in recent weeks, but it is still a career-high 2.9%. The Chiefs are not fumbling as much this year, but they’ve replaced it with more picks than you’d like to see. More than half of them have been under unusual circumstances like a tipped ball at the line, a receiver falling down on the route, or Mahomes getting hit in motion. He hasn’t thrown a truly bad one that was on him since September on the play where he injured Rashee Rice’s knee by accident.

That’s the other thing about this game. Both teams have a lot of receiver injuries, so it’s a revolving door at those positions, which can lead to some miscommunications and mistakes. But the Bills are also good at creating turnovers as they have at least one in every game, they intercepted Joe Flacco three times in Indy last week, and they have 11 picks on the season. The Bills have intercepted Mahomes in 3-of-7 career meetings, including 3-of-4 in the regular season.

Kansas City’s defense is good, but it only has 8 takeaways during this 9-0 start, and the only game where they forced multiple turnovers was when they got Brock Purdy to throw three picks. But that was a case of this defense stepping up against a top offensive coach and good quarterback.

Josh Allen infamously started this season not throwing a pick in the first seven games. But that good fortune seems to have started going the opposite direction and he’s been picked off four times the last three weeks, including a pair in Indy last week. Throw in his inexperience with throwing to Amari Cooper, the way he could be without Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman in this game, and I like Allen to also throw a pick. The Chiefs have intercepted Allen in 3-of-7 career meetings.

Whether the picks are the quarterback’s fault or not is immaterial to them counting on the stat sheet. When you see the lack of good odds for touchdown scorers in this game and the injuries, I think it’s best to count on defense rather than a shootout. That’s why I think the game will look more like the 20-17 game they played last December where each quarterback threw a pick rather than the clean 27-24 game they played in the divisional round.

If you want to sprinkle in Chiefs +3.5 (not pushing), I wouldn’t object either.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted & Josh Allen Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (+225 at BetRivers)

5. Falcons at Broncos: Close Game Coming

The Falcons and Broncos both had some heartbreaking losses last week with missed field goals plaguing them. Atlanta lost 20-17 to the Saints in a game where Younghoe Koo missed three kicks. The Broncos lost 16-14 in Kansas City after their 35-yard field goal was blocked on the final play. The Falcons also had a 35-yard field goal blocked before halftime of their loss.

There aren’t player props rolling in strong yet for this game, but we have a unique 4-leg parlay on it that will put the spread and total in a specific range. The Broncos are a 1.5-point home favorite with a total of 44.5 points. But don’t expect a shootout, a blowout, or a total dud with these NFL picks that are all alternate lines parlayed together:

Over 36.5 Points
Under 54.5 Points
Falcons +7.5
Broncos +7.5

That’s saying we want a game decided by 1-to-7 points (either way) with a total between 37 and 54 points. The implied numbers for the game is Denver to win 23-21.

Some facts to consider:

Atlanta’s had nine straight games go over 36.5 points.
Atlanta has not surpassed 27 points in any non-division games.
Six of Denver’s 10 games have finished between 37 and 54 points, including 5-of-6 since Week 5.
Seven of Atlanta’s 10 games have been decided by 1-to-6 points.

I trust Kirk Cousins to have the team in another close game here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Over 36.5 Points & Under 54.5 Points & Falcons +7.5 & Broncos +7.5 (+198 at FanDuel)

6. Ravens at Steelers: Rivalry Parlay

We have a 3-leg parlay for one of the biggest games as the top AFC North rivalry continues between the Ravens and Steelers in this battle for first place. The Steelers are a 3-point home underdog, but they are 3-1 against Lamar Jackson and this game is usually close no matter who the quarterbacks are.

Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Steelers +7.5

There are 12 wide receivers this year with at least 600 receiving yards, but George Pickens (2) and Zay Flowers (3) are at the bottom for the fewest touchdown catches. That’s a little surprising for what are No. 1 wide receivers, but Pickens has already caught two scores in his three starts with Russell Wilson as his quarterback. Pickens has to be licking his chops against a Baltimore defense that has allowed a league-high 16 touchdown catches to wide receivers this season. He may not be Ja’Marr Chase, but he’s very good, and Wilson’s deep throws are unlocking his talents.

As for Flowers, it’s a little odd that he leads the Ravens in targets (73), catches (50), and receiving yards (688) but still has fewer touchdown catches than Mark Andrews (5) and Rashod Bateman (4). But after a quiet 34 yards in Cincinnati, look for him to step up in Pittsburgh where he had 73 yards last year, and the Ravens were bad at dropping passes early in that game. Substitute his yards going over if you want, even up to 100-plus yards, but I think he hits a big play in this game.

Finally, it’s usually close between these teams. The Steelers actually came back to win both meetings 17-10 last year, and they have been getting the best of Baltimore with a 7-1 record since 2020. But I can understand why the Ravens are being favored because their offense hasn’t scored fewer than 20 points in any game yet, they can strike quickly, and this will be the first time the Steelers face them with Derrick Henry.

But Mike Tomlin is usually solid as a home underdog, and the Steelers know the importance of this game. Wilson’s ability to keep things tight and pull them out in the end should be valuable here, and don’t be surprised if he even wins the game late.

But Steelers +7.5 is a bet that would have hit in 30 of the 35 games between these coaches since 2008. It would have hit in 16-of-18 games since 2015.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown Scorer & George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Steelers +7.5 (+702 at FanDuel)

7. Bengals at Chargers: SNF Parlay

Finally, we have a 5-leg parlay for Sunday night in Los Angeles between the Chargers and Bengals, who have not met since 2021:

Justin Herbert Over 223.5 Passing Yards
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Quentin Johnston Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
Bengals Under 23.5 Points
Chargers -1.5

This is Jim Harbaugh’s first prime-time game at home with the Chargers and our parlay has them putting on a show in an impressive win against the Bengals where they cover the small spread, and they hold the Bengals under 23.5 points just as they’ve done to every opponent this season.

No one has scored more than 20 against the Chargers, who are the No. 1 scoring defense with an average of 13.1 points per game allowed. The Chargers only have four giveaways on offense, so this team plays strong defense and it does not hurt itself with turnovers.

This game should also be a good showcase for Justin Herbert to shred a bad passing defense like the Bengals have. He had gone over 223.5 yards in four straight games before Sunday’s easy win against the Titans where he threw 18 passes, his career low in a game he finished. He should have a little more effort to make here with the way the Bengals can score, but look for Herbert to go over and throw some touchdowns against a secondary that has allowed 17 touchdowns already this season.

Finally, wide receiver Quentin Johnston was looking like a bust as a rookie last season. But he’s improved and has already scored five touchdowns this year. You could bet on him to score another here instead of the touchdown pass prop for Herbert, but they’re still waiting to release the touchdown scorer odds as of early Friday morning.

But we’re not expecting a big shootout from this game like the last Cincinnati game in prime time had. The Chargers will show their defense is legitimate when they knock the Bengals down to 4-7 here.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Justin Herbert Over 223.5 Passing Yards & Justin Herbert Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Quentin Johnston Over 40.5 Receiving Yards & Bengals Under 23.5 Points & Chargers -1.5 (+1150 at BetRivers)

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