Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10

Scott Kacsmar08/11/2024 - 11:13 am

(Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

The NFL has a Week 10 schedule with few standout games, but we are looking at some NFL picks for Steelers-Commanders as a marquee matchup. We also want to see if the Eagles take it to Dallas without Dak Prescott, and Bills-Colts could be a sneaky good one.

In recapping our Week 9 NFL picks, it was an outstanding rebound week. The Vikings (-6.5) ended Indy’s streak of games decided by 1-to-6 points, Josh Allen and the Bills delivered against Miami, Kareem Hunt’s game-winning touchdown in overtime pushed the game over 50.5 points Monday night, and Bo Nix found the end zone via a reception. That’s almost a solid +9 units right there. Unfortunately, the Saints choked against Carolina, Drake London got hurt in Atlanta, and we needed that field goal to not be blocked to push a Chargers game over 39.5 points. But all in all, a great week.

Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same-game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to play the moneyline of big favorites. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together. I do tweet winners from time to time before the island games kick off, by the way.

Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).

1. 49ers at Buccaneers: Welcome Back, Christian McCaffrey

You had to figure the 49ers would get healthier on their much-needed bye week. They apparently got good enough news to activate running back Christian McCaffrey, and he’s expected to make his 2024 season debut in this game.

No, we’re not going to touch his touchdown odds at -270 in his first game back even if we think he’s likely to score if he gets a decent workload. Instead, we’re keeping it simple and taking the 49ers to cover the 6.5-point spread as a road favorite.

Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers — (Photo by Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images)

They’re the better team, they’ve led by double digits in most games this year, they beat this Tampa team 27-14 last season, and the Bucs are still without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Throw in the rest difference as the 49ers had a bye, and the Buccaneers played an emotional game into overtime on Monday night in a loss to Kansas City.

While trusting the 49ers to cover (i.e. not blow the lead) is always difficult, let’s go with a predictable narrative where the 49ers win comfortably by a touchdown or better so people can say CMC is their driving force all along. But don’t discount Brock Purdy carving up this defense too.

Scott’s NFL Pick: 49ers -6.5 (-105 at FanDuel)

2. Titans at Chargers: The Return of Will Levis Is Good for Chargers Picks

The return of Will Levis means the return of ridiculous memes. Which creative way does he turn the ball over? Who does he injure on the sideline? The bad news this time is he’s facing the No. 1 defense in the Chargers, who just made Jameis Winston look silly last week.

The fact is Levis is not good for the passing game. The Titans moved the ball better with Mason Rudolph. Calvin Ridley actually had some production these last few weeks, but I think that slows down greatly with Levis trying to throw the ball to him against a stingy defense that Jim Harbaugh has playing great.

Ridley has 15 catches in the last two games, but he had 5 catches in Weeks 3-7 combined when Levis was the starting quarterback. We’ll trust Ridley to go under 4.5 receptions in this one, and we’ll trust Justin Herbert, who is on a hot streak, to deliver a victory as a 7.5-point home favorite.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Chargers ML & Calvin Ridley Under 4.5 Receptions (+117 at FanDuel)

3. Panthers vs. Giants: The NFL Is Not Sending Our Best

Count me out on getting up early to see the Panthers and Giants in Germany. We’re clearly not sending our best. Last year, it was Colts vs. Patriots in Germany, and that’s when Bailey Zappe threw that hilarious fake spike interception in a 10-6 loss.

But we’re going to keep it simple here. Let’s go with Carolina running back Chuba Hubbard to rush for an alternate line boosted to 75-plus yards. The Giants are terrible against the run as they allow a league-worst 5.2 yards per carry, and they are 28th in yards allowed too.

Hubbard is clearly Carolina’s best runner, and they just signed him to a contract extension. Look for him to make good on it in this matchup. The Giants rarely score many points, so it should be a game where the Panthers can stick with the run for the full game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Chuba Hubbard 75+ Rushing Yards (+135 at bet365)

4. Steelers at Commanders: Russ vs. Jayden

The Steelers (6-2) are coming off their bye week and riding high with Russell Wilson, who has led them to over 400 yards of offense in back-to-back games for the first time since 2018. He might be even more comfortable in his new offense after a couple of starts and a bye week to compare. He also gets a solid matchup with the Commanders, who gave up 22 points to the Giants last week.

Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders — (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

But the Commanders are going to give the Steelers perhaps their greatest test on defense this season. Jayden Daniels continues to play very efficiently despite being a rookie. He’s led the team to at least 18 points in every game, and the lowest total was that win over Chicago with the Hail Mary. But he’s usually great at engineering scoring drives, and we are looking for this to be the second Pittsburgh game this year where both teams score at least 20 points. The other was on the road against the Colts, a 27-24 loss.

A fun game with points between Wilson and Daniels sounds like a good time. Wilson’s deep balls should do some damage to the secondary of Washington, and Daniels’ mobility should help him fend off the pass rush of T.J. Watt and expose some of the holes in that secondary for the Steelers.

Looking forward to this one.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (+122 at FanDuel)

5. Dolphins at Rams: Monday Night Parlay

We have a 4-leg parlay for Monday night between the Dolphins and Rams (-1.5), a game expected to be high scoring (O/U 50.5 points) and close:

Matthew Stafford 200+ Passing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa 200+ Passing Yards
Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer
Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer

With his receivers back, Matthew Stafford should continue dealing against an underwhelming Miami defense. He’ll have Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp to throw to, and hopefully, they stay healthy and don’t get ejected this time as Nacua did last week against the Seahawks. We’ll go with a modest 200 yards for Stafford.

We’ll do the same for Tua Tagovailoa, who has been solid and putting up points in his two starts since his Week 2 concussion. The Dolphins haven’t won the two games, but that’s on the defense mostly.

Tyreek Hill hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 1, the day he was briefly arrested outside the stadium just hours before kickoff. That was an 80-yard catch, the longest touchdown catch of his career, but he hasn’t found the end zone since. A big part of that has been the health of the quarterback situation in Miami, so with a good matchup here, let’s look for Hill to end his drought. Substitute his over in yards (around 65.5) if you’re not feeling the touchdown.

Finally, Kyren Williams did not score a touchdown last week, ending a 10-game streak in the regular season of finding the end zone. The problem here is Demarcus Robinson has 4 touchdown catches over the last two games, so for the sake of our bets, they need to stop doing that and getting back to feeding their running back in the red zone. Williams should start a new streak here in a high-scoring game.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Matthew Stafford 200+ Passing Yards & Tua Tagovailoa 200+ Passing Yards & Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Kyren Williams Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+303 at FanDuel)

6. Lions at Texans: Wide Receiver Heaven vs. Wide Receiver Hell

Sunday Night Football should have been a great game between the Lions (7-1) and Texans (6-3), but injuries to Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs have really hurt the Houston offense. C.J. Stroud had such a rough time in New York last week, but the loss also exposed the flaws this Houston defense has in covering wide receivers despite a great pass rush in front of them. It sounds like Collins might be back for this game, but you will not see Diggs (torn ACL).

We have a 3-leg parlay for this one:

Lions ML
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 65.5 Receiving Yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer

Here’s an incredible stat for 2024: In 9 games, the Texans have allowed 16 players to have at least 40 receiving yards in a game, and 14 of those 16 players also scored a touchdown to go along with their 40-plus yards.

Both Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson reached 90 yards with touchdowns against the Jets last week. That’s why we like Amon-Ra St. Brown to continue the assault with over 65.5 yards and a touchdown in this game for Detroit. He has caught a touchdown in six straight games, and the Lions are rolling with the most points per game in the NFL.

The yardage hasn’t always been there for St. Brown this year, but maybe if Collins returns for Houston, that will push the Lions to throw more than they’ve needed to in recent weeks. But Jared Goff is rarely missing these days, and I like St. Brown to have a big night.

I also like the Lions to win in the end as they are the better team, they’re playing like the best offense right now, and their defense has been solid. The Texans have only outscored their opponents by a single point this year. They’re not as good as their 6-3 record suggests, and this is a prime spot for the Lions to show why they’re the new odds-on Super Bowl favorite in the NFC.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Lions ML & Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 63.5 Receiving Yards & Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+335 at FanDuel)

7. Best of the Rest NFL Picks Parlay

Finally, we have a 4-leg parlay for the best of the rest in Week 10:

Broncos at Chiefs: Both Teams to Score 15+ Points

The first time we see rookie quarterback Bo Nix take on Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are looking for their 15th win in a row, so by coincidence, we are going with both teams to score at least 15 points.

That’s pretty obvious on Kansas City’s part. The offense has been scoring more efficiently the last month, and they have reached more than 15 points in all but three home starts in Mahomes’ career. The Denver defense lost some shine last week in a 41-10 rout in Baltimore.

But the Broncos are up and down this year under Nix. Last week was down despite the way they moved the ball well. They just missed too many touchdowns. It might not sound optimistic for them to score 15 against the Chiefs, but the Buccaneers managed to score 24 on Monday night despite not having Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. The Chiefs have allowed at least 17 points to 6-of-8 opponents this season.

The Broncos have scored at least 16 points in 6-of-9 games. Nix’s scrambling should give him options to make plays against the Chiefs, who are mediocre at situational defense and are only averaging 1.0 takeaways per game.

They also could be overlooking this game with the showdown in Buffalo coming up next week. Sean Payton should have something cooked up to deal with this defense in a key divisional game.

Jonathan Taylor (Colts) Anytime Touchdown Scorer vs. Bills

The Colts got a lot of criticism for benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco last week only to kick two field goals and never find the end zone on offense. I think that changes this week with a better effort from Flacco, and a smarter gameplan, and he’ll move the ball better at home. The Bills had problems with the Dolphins last week in giving up 27 points. Devon Achane looked really fast at moving through their defense, so we’re going to trust Indy’s best-skill player, Jonathan Taylor, to score a touchdown for them in this game.

It may be their only offensive touchdown, but he should get one.

Aaron Rodgers (Jets) Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns vs. Cardinals

Aaron Rodgers has dug teams out of holes before with his “RELAX” (2014) and “Run the Table” (2016) runs in Green Bay. This would be a tougher one from 2-6 with the Jets, but maybe that comeback win against the Texans will get him going after he threw 3 touchdowns in the second half. Let’s trust him to throw another pair in Arizona, a suspect defense you can’t trust. But we’ll leave out the moneyline or spread for this one as it’s a tight one (Jets -1.5).

Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown/Eagles ML vs. Cowboys

We had this same pick last week and Saquon Barkley delivered against Jacksonville. We just didn’t expect he’d do a reverse hurdle for one of the coolest plays you’ll ever see. But Barkley is thriving right now, the Cowboys are falling apart, Dak Prescott is out, and the Eagles should keep rolling in this one. Let’s trust Barkley to find the end zone while A.J. Brown is a bit banged up, and the Eagles should win as a 7-point road favorite against backup QB Cooper Rush.

Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Broncos-Chiefs Both to Score 15+ Points & Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown Run & Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns & Saquon Barkley Anytime Touchdown Scorer/Eagles ML (+953 at FanDuel)

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