The NFL is back for the 2024 season after the Chiefs beat the Ravens 27-20 on Thursday night to already give us an excellent example of a bad beat. If you had Ravens +3, you had to be sick to your stomach to see Isaiah Likely’s toe cost the team the cover and possibly the win as they were going to go for a 2-point conversion. The game was going to end 27-26 or 28-27 on the final snap, but the man just happens to have big feet.
It’s almost like you have to be crazy to bet on this stuff, yet we can’t wait to do it every week this season. Week 1 has some very enticing games too like Packers-Eagles, Rams-Lions, Texans-Colts, and Cowboys-Browns.
Each Friday, we will share seven NFL picks that we are including in our bets for the weekend. These can be prop picks, spreads, totals, alternate lines, moneylines, teasers, same game parlays, etc. We like to think outside the box instead of just telling you to pick Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown. You can play any of the picks as singles or parlay your favorite choices together.
Note: Picks are ranked in order of confidence (highest to lowest).
Table of Contents
1. The Return of NFL Overs: Cowboys vs. Browns
If you bet the under on every NFL game since 2021, you would have been profitable in each season. We have not seen a run like this in decades, and it’s also been over 30 years since the NFL last saw points and yards decrease for three years in a row.
That’s why a major theme this year, until proven otherwise, is that 2024 should be the return of overs hitting more often. More scoring. We saw it work out Thursday night when the over 46.5 barely hit in Chiefs-Ravens, and we are looking for more this weekend.
A game I like for the over is the Cowboys as a 2.5-point underdog in Cleveland with a total of 41 points. People will expect defense from this matchup as Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett are superstars with Garrett winning Defensive Player of the Year last year over this season’s favorite (and my pick) for the award.
But when these teams played in 2020, the Browns won 49-38. This game won’t be that high scoring, but Kevin Stefanski has been involved in a lot of unexpected shootouts since taking over as Cleveland’s coach in 2020.
Since 2020, the over has hit in 53.6% of Cleveland’s games, the third-highest rate in that time. In 2023, the over was 12-6 (66.7%) for Cleveland, the highest rate in the NFL. This team played games like 39-38 against the Colts, 36-19 against the Rams, 31-27 against the Jaguars, 37-20 against the Jets, and a 33-31 win over the Ravens. Even their two games with Houston both reached 58 points.
Cleveland was much better at not allowing points at home, but the Cowboys can travel and have a veteran quarterback in Dak Prescott looking for a huge contract extension. Deshaun Watson also has a lot to prove for the Browns in this offense.
With Tom Brady calling this as his first game for FOX, let’s see some points and give him something to talk about. Give me the over in Cleveland as both teams could get to 20 points.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Over 41 Points (-109 at BetRivers)
2. NFL Upset Alert: Giants Over Vikings
Frankly, I don’t see many wins for the Giants or the Vikings this season. But I really struggle to see where the Giants are getting their wins, so Week 1 at home against the Vikings may be a must-win to avoid a really ugly start to this season as it’s only going to get tougher.
But Daniel Jones had his best games in 2022 against the Vikings, a defense that lost Danielle Hunter this offseason and is replacing him with a rookie (Dallas Turner). They have Sam Darnold at quarterback, who doesn’t really do anything particularly well. He’ll have Brian Burns chasing after him this year after the Giants executed that trade.
But this really comes down to Daniel Jones going into this year where he knows it’s do-or-die for his career in New York. The team will move on in 2025 if he’s bad this year. The Vikings like to blitz or drop eight into coverage, so hopefully Brian Daboll will be ready with plays that take advantage of that and uses Jones’ mobility too.
The Giants are only a 1.5-point home underdog, but since 2010, home underdogs of 1.5 points or less are 7-3 SU. I’m taking the Giants this week and want nothing to do with the Vikings in any survivor pool in Week 1.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Giants ML (+106 at FanDuel)
3. Nico Collins Picks Up Where He Left Off
We had a big preview for the Houston Texans with Super Bowl aspirations for them in 2024 as the next big thing in the AFC, and C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick.
What better way to start the season right than for Nico Collins to have another dominant performance in a win over the rival Colts on the road? While we know Stefon Diggs is going to command his targets in this offense, Collins should still be the No. 1 for Stroud.
He had monster games against Indy last year, and that secondary is still lacking. Stroud helped Collins to 146 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Then in the Week 18 division title game, Stroud found Collins for a career-high 195 yards and also a touchdown on the first play of the game.
Collins’ line is only 67.5 receiving yards this week. He should get that against this defense. We also like the Texans, a 2.5-point road favorite, to win.
If you’re nervous to go with the win for Houston because of how weird division games can be in Week 1, then you could hedge with Collins scoring a touchdown (+160 at FanDuel) as he did that in both games against the Colts last year too. But we’re big on Collins and the Texans this week.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Nico Collins Over 67.5 Receiving Yards & Texans ML (+185 at FanDuel)
4. Bears Win a Close One in Caleb Williams’ Debut
A lot of eyes this week on Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams as he makes his official NFL debut against the Titans. We wrote in the offseason that Williams was walking into the best situation for any quarterback drafted No. 1 overall in NFL history.
Expectations are high for the rookie as the sportsbooks favor Chicago to win over 8.5 games, something only Andrew Luck has done as a No. 1 pick for the 2012 Colts (11-5). A big reason Luck did that is because he led a rookie-record seven game-winning drives that season. He came through in the clutch so much for that team.
Close wins have been a foreign concept to the Bears the last few years, but a lot of that was because of how bad Justin Fields was in those situations. Even if the Bears just needed a field goal, you couldn’t trust him not to throw a pick.
That’s a big reason why coach Matt Eberflus is 3-16 (.158) in game-winning drive opportunities, the worst record among active coaches.
We think he has a chance to get a close win this week behind Williams, who may be in a tight one with the Titans, another team looking to improve with a young quarterback (Will Levis). The spread was Chicago -4 earlier this week and has been inching closer to the Titans (+3.5) as we get closer to Sunday. It historically has been hard to get a win in Week 1 for rookie starters in their debut.
But we believe in the hype of Williams, we believe in the team around him, and we think the Bears do win this game by 1-to-13 points. Maybe Williams even leads a game-winning drive in his first game.
It would be surprising to see a blowout either way, so this game should be a prominent figure in the Witching Hour on NFL RedZone. Expect an exciting finish.
NFL Pick: Winning Margin – Chicago Bears by 1-13 Points (+115 at FanDuel)
5. Jalen Hurts vs. Jordan Love in Brazil
Don’t think we’ve forgotten about Friday night’s first ever NFL game in South America when Brazil hosts the Packers and Eagles in a very interesting NFC matchup.
Brazil will be treated to two of the best quarterbacks in the NFC in Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love. We have a 2-leg parlay involved with their touchdown numbers as we think the game has a decent chance to be high scoring (total is 49.5 points).
Hurts has used the Tush Push to great success in recent years. It’s so automatic for him, and it’s a major reason why he has scored 28 rushing touchdowns since 2022, including 15 last year.
While center Jason Kelce retired, guard play is still very important to that play’s success, and the Eagles have one of the better lines in the league. Hurts also squats an incredible amount of weight, so he should still be quite effective with that play, and while it does concern me they may want to get new running back Saquon Barkley a touchdown in his debut, I still think Hurts is the automatic call when the Eagles get inside the 2-yard line.
As for Green Bay, last year, Love threw multiple touchdown passes in his last six games (playoffs included), and he did it in 10-of-11 games to end the season. Matt LaFleur coached Aaron Rodgers, so he is used to an offense that throws effectively in the red zone and racks up scores. The Eagles also had a really lousy defense last season, should fare better in 2024, but this first game can be rough as the Packers are a hard team to get a read on.
Is their No. 1 receive Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, or Jayden Reed? Their roles are pretty interchangeable in any given week, and the Eagles have a lot to prove in that secondary.
That’s why I like Love to throw a pair and Hurts to do what he does best and score on a short run.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Same Game Parlay – Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer & Jordan Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+205 at FanDuel)
6. I Love a Pick Parade
We have a 3-leg parlay of quarterbacks who should throw at least one interception in Week 1:
- Sam Darnold (Vikings) at Giants – Mentioned the Giants as an upset winner above, and forcing Darnold into turnovers will go a long way in making that happen. He’s not Nick Mullens-level bad at throwing picks, but this offense will force the ball into trouble with Darnold.
- Bo Nix (Broncos) at Seahawks – The rookie had his moments in the preseason but look for rookie coach Mike Macdonald to bring the heat and force him into a mistake in Seattle.
- Matthew Stafford (Rams) at Lions – Detroit will show an improved defense at home Sunday night and bait Stafford into throwing at least one.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Interception Parlay – Sam Darnold INT vs. Giants & Bo Nix INT vs. Seahawks & Matthew Stafford INT vs. Lions (+365 at FanDuel)
7. Throwing Week 1 Darts Parlay
Remember, Week 1 can be very tough as everything is so new. You’re largely just throwing darts against your preseason expectations.
For our final pick, we have a 5-leg parlay of various markets from different games with odds of over +3100.
Chargers -3 vs. Raiders
Let the new era begin as Jim Harbaugh wins convincingly enough in his debut with the Chargers as Justin Herbert outscores Gardner Minshew. Hopefully we won’t see another case of Chargering here.
Keon Coleman (Bills) Over 30.5 Receiving Yards vs. Cardinals
Are the Bills already regretting trading their first-round pick to the Chiefs and allowing them to draft the fastest wideout in Xavier Worthy? He scored two touchdowns against Baltimore. The Bills drafted Keon Coleman, and we think against a bad secondary, he should make a big catch this week to hit over 30.5 yards to give Buffalo fans some relief that they may have added a good weapon too. But this is more about taking advantage of a lousy defense with Josh Allen looking for new weapons after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
Ja’Marr Chase Anytime Touchdown/Bengals ML vs. Patriots
While Chase seeks the richest wide receiver contract in NFL history, look for him to have a big game against a New England team about to have a long year without Bill Belichick. Look for Chase to have perhaps his strongest season yet, and we like him to score this week and to get the win as an 8.5-point home favorite against the lowly Pats.
Jameson Williams (Lions) Over 39.5 Receiving Yards vs Lions
The Lions need a new WR2 to step up after letting Josh Reynolds go following his drops in the playoffs. Jameson Williams has been a slow project, but this is his big opportunity, and the Rams lost Aaron Donald (retired) and have a lot of injuries and problems in the secondary. Maybe Williams can easily hit his over with a big play as the Rams try to limit Amon-Ra St. Brown, who torched them last postseason.
Jets-49ers Under 21.5 First Half Total
Perhaps the best bet of the 2023 NFL season was the under on Monday nights. It started 13-1 and finished 15-5, an incredible run.
The first Monday night game last year was a disaster as Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles just four snaps into the game against Buffalo. Hard to believe, but the NFL is going for some déjà vu as here is Rodgers opening his season with the Jets on Monday night against a career nemesis in the 49ers.
But the Jets should have a great defense too, and you never know what to expect from the 49ers and Brock Purdy against a top-tier defense.
Rather than go back to the Monday night under, we’ll play it a little differently and just take the first half under 21.5 points. This way, if one of the offenses does figure things out in this game, hopefully it will come after a low-scoring half to kick off the Monday slate this year.
Scott’s NFL Pick: Parlay – Chargers -3 vs. Raiders & Keon Coleman Over 30.5 Receiving Yards & Ja’Marr Chase TD/Bengals ML & Jameson Williams Over 39.5 Receiving Yards & Jets-49ers Under 21.5 First Half Total (+3107 at FanDuel)
Related Articles:
- 2024 NFL Season Picks: Super Bowl LIX, Playoff Teams, and Award Winners
- Kansas City Chiefs 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks
- The NFL Heads to South America with the First Game in Brazil: Eagles vs. Packers
- Is Caleb Williams in the Best Situation of Any Rookie Quarterback Drafted No. 1 Overall in NFL History?
