202449ersNFL

San Francisco 49ers 2024 NFL Season Preview and Picks

Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar23/07/2024 - 12:38 pm
SANTA CLARA, CA - JANUARY 28: Brandon Aiyuk #11 of the San Francisco 49ers warms up before kickoff against the Detroit Lions during the NFC Championship football game at Levi's Stadium on January 28, 2024 in Santa Clara, California.
(Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images)

The San Francisco 49ers are a great team that just happens to be playing at the same time as an NFL dynasty from Kansas City. San Francisco’s inability to wrap up and finish against Patrick Mahomes in crunch time is the main reason why head coach Kyle Shanahan isn’t currently sporting more Super Bowl rings than Andy Reid.

Mahomes did it to the 49ers again in Super Bowl LVIII in February. It was the 3rd-and-15 play to Tyreek Hill in Super Bowl LIV that doomed the 49ers when Mahomes was inches away from a sack before launching the deep ball that set off a flurry of three touchdowns in a 31-20 final.

Many thought the 49ers just didn’t have enough in the tank with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback that year. Second-year quarterback Brock Purdy made his Mr. Irrelevant label truly irrelevant and backed up his rookie success by having an MVP-caliber season in 2023, taking the offense to places that Garoppolo never did.

In the Super Bowl, Purdy became the first quarterback in playoff history to lead three go-ahead drives in the fourth quarter and overtime and still lose. The 49ers had a chance on a 4th-and-1 in overtime to end the game, but Mahomes kept the ball and ran for a first down before later throwing a walk-off touchdown. You could certainly question Shanahan’s decision to go on offense first, allowing Mahomes to take the field knowing exactly what he needed to win the game.

Just like that, the 49ers came up short again. For a team that is considered to have the most talented roster in the NFL and has been to four of the last five NFC Championship Games, they are still searching for that elusive ring under Shanahan.

Expectations are really high again as sportsbooks have the 49ers with the second-best odds to finish with the best record in the regular season, win over 11.5 games, and win Super Bowl LIX.

Of course, the only team they trail in those odds is Kansas City, the team they are 0-4 against since 2018. But if the 49ers can continue their excellence in the easier conference to win, maybe they can get to a Super Bowl and face a different AFC opponent for a change.

We look back at 2023’s near greatness, the key offseason changes, the uphill battle ahead for the NFL’s version of Sisyphus, and the best 49ers bets for 2024.

2023 Season Recap: 49ers One Play Short Again  

The burning question for the 49ers going into 2023 was whether or not Brock Purdy’s rookie success as the last pick in the draft was believable, and if he was going to be healthy after injuring his elbow in the 2022 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.

Purdy answered those questions quickly.

The Great 5-0 Start

Purdy was brilliant in Week 1 in Pittsburgh, and the 49ers were soon 5-0 with at least 30 points scored in every game. That’s something only five other teams in NFL history had done to start a season (2000 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2011 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2018 Rams). Unfortunately, none of those teams won a Super Bowl (0-5 in the big game) as the defense was usually not up to snuff, and that would eventually come back to haunt the 49ers as well.

But when the 49ers crushed Dallas 42-10 in Week 5 in a Sunday night game, everyone felt this was the best team in the NFL. Purdy was leading the league in a variety of passing efficiency categories. Christian McCaffrey was well on his way to leading the league in rushing yards, yards from scrimmage, and total touchdowns on his way to winning Offensive Player of the Year. The defense just embarrassed Dak Prescott and a team that was considered a main NFC rival along with the Eagles.

The 0-3 Slump

Things looked great, but then the injuries started in Cleveland against a tough defense. Even without McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel, Purdy shook off a bad game and led the team down the field late. But rookie kicker Jake Moody, the 99th pick in the draft, missed a 41-yard field goal and the 49ers lost 19-17.

A week later in Minnesota on a Monday night, Purdy suffered a concussion and threw a late-game interception in another loss. He somehow came back to play the following Sunday despite the new concussion protocol that usually keeps a player out the next game, and maybe it wasn’t for the best as he made some more bad decisions on picks in a 31-17 loss where the defense also looked poor.

Suddenly, the 49ers lost a lot of their shine.

The Road to Christmas Where Coal Was the Gift

The bye week came at a great time for the 49ers (5-3) to get recharged and healthy. They ripped off six straight wins, including a 42-19 dismantling of the Eagles in Philadelphia. Just like against Dallas, Purdy threw 4 touchdowns and no picks in that game.

It was starting to look like a season where the 49ers and Ravens would be the No. 1 seeds and their Week 16 game on Christmas night would be a Super Bowl preview, which would have been a rematch from Super Bowl XLVII.

Purdy was having the kind of season that would put him as the MVP favorite most years. He led the league in yards per attempt (9.6), yards per completion (13.9), passer rating (113.0), QBR (72.8), and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (9.01) for a team about to win the No. 1 seed.

But by playing in the Shanahan system with a great cast, there’s always that skepticism about Purdy. How would he fare against the No. 1 defense from Baltimore in a big game? He was the MVP favorite going in, and Lamar Jackson left the MVP favorite going out after Purdy threw four picks.

There were a lot of deflected balls and bad luck, but it just wasn’t a good night, and it confirmed a lot of the suspicions about Purdy.

The 49ers rested starters in Week 18, losing to the Rams to fall to 12-5, knowing they already had the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage secured.

The NFC Playoffs Flip the Script for 49ers

One could question Purdy, but he was unlikely going to have a hard time against defenses like Green Bay and Detroit in the NFC playoffs. A bigger question mark was defensive coordinator Steve Wilks’ defense, which looked shaky down the stretch. The defense took a step back from where it was in 2021-22 under coordinator DeMeco Ryans, and the situational play was not very strong last year (24th on third down and 16th in the red zone).

In the divisional round against Green Bay, the 49ers had a rough night, Deebo was injured again, and they had to hang in there as Jordan Love was on a hot streak. But the Packers missed a 41-yard field goal with 6:18 left in a 21-17 game, and Purdy drove the 49ers on a game-winning touchdown drive. The defense stepped up and intercepted Love to win the game.

Keep in mind the 49ers played the fewest close games in the regular season and didn’t log a single fourth-quarter comeback or game-winning drive. Then in the NFC Championship Game against Detroit, another potent offense, the 49ers fell behind 24-7 at halftime and were getting chewed up on the ground.

Fortunately, Josh Reynolds had a couple of huge drops for the Lions in the second half that killed drives, and the Lions also fumbled deep in their own end that led to a game-tying touchdown drive. Purdy caught his own big break when his deep ball hit a Lion defensive back before finding its way to Brandon Aiyuk for a 51-yard gain to ignite the offense.

The 49ers once again pulled out a close one, 34-31, over Detroit to advance to another Super Bowl where they were a 2-point favorite. But the opponent once again was Mahomes and the Chiefs, and this time he had his best defense.

Super Bowl LVIII

We don’t need a really long recap of what happened in February. It was a weird game where McCaffrey fumbled on the opening possession in scoring territory, which soured what was otherwise a game with 160 yards from scrimmage for him. Linebacker Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles in the second quarter just getting onto the field, a big blow to the defense.

But it was wide receiver Jauan Jennings who was actually in line to win Super Bowl MVP thanks to his touchdown pass to McCaffrey on a trick play and his go-ahead touchdown catch in the fourth quarter to put the 49ers up 16-13.

It should have been 17-13 but Moody’s extra point was blocked in a bad game for the special teams. Late in the third quarter, the 49ers botched a punt return that went down as another turnover and gave Mahomes a short field in a 10-6 game. That led to the scoring fest to end the game as these teams scored on seven straight drives outside of a kneel-down for overtime.

The 49ers kept taking the lead and Moody redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal with 1:53 left. But Mahomes and Travis Kelce marched the Chiefs right down the field to force overtime, where the 49ers made the mistake of going on offense first. When facing Mahomes in a new format where the game doesn’t end with a touchdown on the first drive, you need to be as aggressive as possible if you take the ball first. Even consider scoring up to eight points on that possession. Instead, Shanahan settled for a field goal and a 22-19 lead.

The rest was almost inevitable. With Mahomes not having to worry about the clock and getting to use four downs the whole length of the field, he led the Chiefs on a 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive to win 25-22.

Instead of being immortalized with highlights of Nick Bosa sacking Mahomes on 3rd-and-15 or the defense stuffing Mahomes on 4th-and-1 in overtime, it’s the Chiefs who made the plays and will raise the banners twice over the 49ers.

It does not get more frustrating than two very close Super Bowl losses where you were a play away. These windows also don’t stay open forever.

San Francisco 49ers: Offseason Review

Once again, the 49ers have done a great job of retaining most of the core that has made them so successful. But there is another change at defensive coordinator, a longtime defender says goodbye, and there’s the Brandon Aiyuk story that never wants to go away.

The Brandon Aiyuk Trade Saga

Seemingly ever since the Super Bowl ended in February, we keep hearing about how wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk wants a trade if the 49ers won’t give him a new contract extension. Everyone from the Steelers to the Patriots have been linked to trading for him, but no deal is imminent.

Frankly, I hate to even keep entertaining it without seeing any real action. Aiyuk is the team’s best natural receiver, he’s better at staying healthy than the more physical Deebo, and he has a great connection with Purdy. Aiyuk had a career-high 1,342 yards and averaged an absurd 12.8 yards per target in 2023.

At 26 years old, this is the kind of receiver you should be giving an extension to. But the position has become expensive to extend, the 49ers haven’t made that move yet, and some view the first-round draft pick of Ricky Pearsall (Florida) as a sign that Aiyuk will be playing elsewhere soon.

Pearsall is one of the more interesting wide receiver prospects in a strong rookie class for the position. He could definitely blossom into a stud in Shanahan’s system, but as a rookie in 2024, he’s not likely to move the needle much. He also is unlikely to be as good as Aiyuk this year, so any trade here if it happens should be viewed as a negative for San Francisco’s chances of winning the Super Bowl this season.

Another Defensive Coordinator Change

Shanahan’s coaching tree continues to get purged by the rest of the league as Robert Saleh (Jets) and DeMeco Ryans (Texans) have gone from being his defensive coordinator to head coaches elsewhere.

But last year’s replacement for Ryans was Steve Wilks, and the results were just not there. The team parted ways after the season, and Nick Sorensen is being promoted to the new DC. He was an assistant with the team in 2022 and moved up to passing game specialist and nickelbacks last season. He also spent years working with Pete Carroll in Seattle (2013-20).

One player Sorensen won’t have to use anymore is defensive tackle Arik Armstead, who had been with the 49ers since they drafted him in 2015. He has moved on to the Jaguars. The 49ers have replaced him with veteran Maliek Collins, who has 112 career starts with the Cowboys, Raiders, and most recently Texans. Playing in Ryans’ Houston defense last year could help him get ready for this transition to San Francisco.

Veteran safety Tashaun Gipson, who started 33 games for the 49ers in 2022-23, remains a free agent and will be suspended for the first six games of 2024 for violating the league’s performance-enhancing substance policy. It looks like the 49ers will be counting on 2023 third-round safety Ji’Ayir Brown, who started the last two playoff games and had an interception in the Super Bowl.

While the 49ers gave Chase Young a shot with a trade last season, they did not extend it beyond that as he signed with the Saints. But maybe the most consequential addition to the 49ers this year is veteran edge rusher Leonard Floyd, who has had at least 9.0 sacks in each of the last four seasons with the Rams and Bills. He is someone who can help Nick Bosa with the pass rush. The 49ers also brought in veteran inside linebacker De’Vondre Campbell from Green Bay, and he should be a Week 1 starter.

The top defensive rookie the 49ers drafted was second-round corner Renardo Green from Florida State. He should be in the mix with Isaac Yiadom and Rock Ya-Sin to play right corner, which might still be the weakness in this otherwise solid defense.

This Year’s Narrative: Have the 49ers Become Sisyphus?  

In Greek mythology, Sisyphus was a tyrant the gods punished by forcing him to roll a large boulder up a hill, only for it to roll back down once he neared the top. He had to repeat this for eternity. Even the best of us would soon let hopelessness set in.

That’s not to say the 49ers are about to give up after their latest case of coming up short near the top, but it has to get harder to keep climbing back. It doesn’t help that the league is designed for other teams to build themselves up and take your spot.

There is no simple fix for the 49ers to get over the top on their own. Barring catastrophic injuries like they had in the 2020 season, they should still be very good and balanced on both sides of the ball. You hope that the kicker Moody will be an asset going forward instead of a liability after making some long kicks in the playoffs and no longer being a rookie.

If you don’t think the 49ers have the quarterback to beat Mahomes for the championship, then who does right now? Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts haven’t gotten that job done either. At least Purdy had the lead in overtime the last time he left the field.

But it does feel like, no matter which way you look at it, the 49ers will face a tougher road to get back to the Super Bowl and win it in 2024 despite having higher odds in the preseason than they did last year.

The NFC West should be better this year:

  • After solidifying their offense with Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, the Rams finished last season hot to qualify for the playoffs, and their last two drafts have done an impressive job of preparing for this future without Aaron Donald on defense.
  • The Seahawks still have very good offensive pieces and should see improvement on defense under new coach Mike Macdonald from the Ravens.
  • Arizona has Kyler Murray back healthy (with a new weapon in Marvin Harrison Jr.) instead of missing half the season with a rookie coach (Jonathan Gannon) like last year.

The 49ers’ main rivals in the NFC could also be stronger teams in 2024:

  • The Eagles collapsed last year, but they have a good roster and made great coordinator hires in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio.
  • The Cowboys are still talented and get to play the 49ers a week after San Francisco hosts Kansas City this year.
  • The Lions were probably a dropped pass away from beating the 49ers in San Francisco last year, and that defense has nowhere to go but up from 2023.
  • The Packers are a Super Bowl contender if they play the way they finished in 2023.

Then there’s the uncomfortable truth that this roster is facing a window that’s closing:

  • McCaffrey just turned 28 (old for a running back), led the NFL in touches, and he has his own injury history to worry about.
  • George Kittle, who was invisible in the Super Bowl, will be 31 and that’s the wrong side of 30 for a tight end.
  • Trent Williams is still a great left tackle, but he’ll be 36 this season and always misses a few games.
  • This could be Aiyuk’s last season in San Francisco.
  • Greenlaw is coming off a torn Achilles from February.

Then there’s regression to the mean. The 49ers played the fewest close games in the NFL in both 2022 (6) and 2023 (5). A close game is a one-score game in the fourth quarter where the trailing team has possession. If your defense has to defend a one-score lead, that’s a close game too.

That streak should end this year. If you don’t believe that, then consider the case of the Eagles. They played the fewest close games in 2021 (4), the second-fewest close games in 2022 (7), and last year they were in 13 close games, tied for the second most. You can’t expect to blow everybody out every year.

Maybe that postseason filled with nail-biters for the 49ers is a sign of things to come more often in 2024.

Best Bets for the 2024 49ers

Going right back to the Super Bowl after losing it is such a difficult thing to do. Only the 2017-18 Patriots and those Buffalo teams that lost four in a row (1990-93) have been able to do it since the multiple wild card team format started in 1990.

So many of those teams just got worse in a hurry. While I cannot say definitively that the 49ers got worse as a team this offseason, it’s also difficult to see where they got much better, or as the playoffs showed last year, they are not leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the NFC. There are better values in the conference for Super Bowl LIX.

Having said that, the 49ers should still be in the mix at the end, and they are one of the safer picks for a division title this year. Still hard to trust the Rams in the trenches to think they’re ready to leapfrog the 49ers, and the Seahawks have major issues in beating this San Francisco team. Arizona doesn’t look ready either.

The 2024 49ers are tied with the Chiefs for the highest win total at over/under 11.5 wins. It’s yet another strong line by the books as you can easily see the team sitting at 11 or 12 wins this year, perfectly skirting that line:

  • The Jets with Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 can be a real wild card matchup as you’re not sure what you’re getting from Rodgers.
  • It wouldn’t be shocking if the 49ers dropped a division game or two, especially with a trip to Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6.
  • Mahomes is 4-0 against the 49ers and will be in San Francisco for the Super Bowl rematch in Week 7 (late afternoon game).
  • Back-to-back trips to Green Bay and Buffalo could be very tricky in Weeks 12-13, especially if Jordan Love and Josh Allen are playing like MVP contenders.
  • Could easily see the 49ers slip up in Miami (Week 16) or the Lions getting some revenge in Week 17 for last year’s title game.

After starting slowly in 2021 (3-5) and 2022 (3-4), the 49ers had that dominant start last season and that was good enough to get to 12 wins in the end.

But in paying off my theme that this year’s road back will be tougher, I have to take the under 11.5 wins and position the 49ers more for an 11-6 record that will not be good enough for the No. 1 seed this time.

Maybe the 49ers don’t even need a No. 1 seed to win the Super Bowl. They just need to get to the Super Bowl and not see Mahomes on the other side. They can do their part to gain some confidence and beat the Chiefs in Week 7.

But the 49ers should not get complacent and focus this season on getting past the Chiefs. That’s how you end up losing one of those coin-flip games to hungry Green Bay and Detroit teams you were fortunate to get past last year.

NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers to win NFC West (-190 at FanDuel)

NFL Pick: San Francisco 49ers under 11.5 wins (-125 at BetMGM)

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Photo of Scott Kacsmar Scott Kacsmar23/07/2024 - 12:38 pm